Evening all,
A good day's racing on Saturday, with Annacotty winning the Paddy Power and a few impressive performances elsewhere on the card. It was not a great day our my predictions though. Hopefully Sunday's racing will be a bit more profitable. It's the final day of the Open meeting at Cheltenham and there's also another good card at Punchestown with Faugheen set to make his reappearance.
But we stick to Cheltenham for the main write-up. The ground was pretty testing on Saturday and with more rain expected on Sunday, I've gone on the assumption that the ground may deteriorate further and it may get softer. With that in mind, I'm going to give Altior and Maputo a miss in the opener. Both will fare better on firmer ground, whereas Mister Miyagi has both course form and form on softer ground. Dan Skelton's charge will have to step up in grade, but with help from the conditions, he could be the one to be on at a bigger price.
In the second, Garde La Victoire is the obvious choice and while I'm reluctant to oppose him, I find it hard to back him at the odds. I'd rather go for El Namoose at a big price. He's got form on soft ground and gets four lbs from the other proven soft ground peformer Fox Norton. Add that to the drop back in trip and we should at least have a horse with an each way chance.
Race number three is the Schloer Chase and sees the return of Sprinter Sacre. I really hope that he is back to his best, but I can't back him after his disappointing end to last season. Instead, I fancy Somersby, who goes well fresh and although he's not won for two years, he will appreciate conditions. Either way, I can't see Mr Mole winning this, conceding weight all round.
The feature race is the Greatwood Hurdle and nineteen are declared for this, not making it any easier. Nabucco will be a short price, but too much give in the ground will not be helpful for him. I'm not seeing why Mick Jazz is as short at 7/1, but maybe I'm missing something here. With this many runners, I'm always tempted to take two against the field and my two in this case would be Days of Heaven and Bidourey. Both have form on softer ground and although not at their best last time out, they remain with potential. At double figure odds, they're worth an each way shot. There's been plenty of money for Renneti, who was 25/1 earlier in the week, but is now as short as 8/1 and in this big a field, that's not for me.
It doesn't get any easier in the penultimate race with a grand total of twenty-four runners declared. Again, we'll take two against the field and I'll side with Skylander, who comes back to Hurdles after winning over fences and has some form on softer ground. Another with similar credentials and a big price is Valid Point, Ryan Hatch takes a useful three lbs off and he's off a fair mark here to run a decent run.
We end the Open and hopefully three days of good racing with a bumper over two miles. Chap looks an interesting runner, but preference has to go to the hot favourite Waterlord. John Ferguson's runner has racked up three wins, in impressive fashion, and will be well fancied to follow up here. At a bigger price, keep an eye out for Aurillac, who won over C&D last month and if they let him get another easy lead, he may sneak away.
Please keep the weather in mind with your Cheltenham selections and good luck with it all.
15-11
Cheltenham
1.00 Mister Miyagi 7/1
1.35 El Namoose 20/1
2.10 Somersby 5/1
2.40 Days of Heaven 16/1
Bidourey 16/1
3.15 Skylander 20/1
Valid Point 22/1
3.50 Waterlord 7/2
Punchestown
12.35 Rupert Lamb 10/3
1.05 Sizing John 1/2
1.40 Unic De Bersy 10/1
2.15 Faugheen 2/9
2.45 Conal 5/1
3.20 Steel Wave 5/1
3.55 Babbling Stream 5/2
Fontwell
12.45 General Girling 5/4
1.15 Impulsive American 6/1
1.50 Regal Flow 8/1
2.25 Canicallyouback 7/2
2.55 Emerging Force 4/1
3.30 Titans Approach 10/3
4.00 Lady From Geneva 3/1
Cork
12.55 Bleu et Rouge 8/11
1.25 Belshill 2/7
2.00 Ice Cool 25/1
2.30 Kerrieonvic 12/1
3.05 Nickname Exit 7/4
3.40 Pairofbrowneyes 2/1
4.10 Danali 5/1
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