The Weekend Preview
By Red
Red looks forward towards the weekend racing coming from Ascot and Wetherby (and maybe even Carlisle on Sunday ).
I've already had a look at the big one on Saturday, the Charlie Hall (which you can find here), but there's plenty of other action, with a mares listed hurdle and the West Yorkshire hurdle at Wetherby on Saturday, the Sodexo Gold Cup and a pair of listed races at Ascot all on Saturday and a potentially exciting race up at Carlisle on Sunday.
Starting with the Mares Listed race at 2.10 on Saturday, Miss Crick seems the obvious place to start with four wins in her last five. Alan King's mare by Midnight Legend went up 13 lbs over the summer, but showed no signs of stopping when she breezed up by 8 lengths at Worcester latest. Up another 12 lbs for that could be a struggle, but she's in hot form. The other top rated horse in the race is Stephanie Frances, who has been showing great form over fences, but has some decent hurdles form as well. The Skelton yard are in good from and she wasn't disgraced in the Mares hurdle at Cheltenham, finishing 8th, 10 lengths behind Vroum Vroum Mag, when a 40/1 shot. Midnight Jazz and Card Game might have a say in proceedings, but my preference would be to go with the Skelton horse.
The West Yorkshire hurdle at 2.45 had the potential to be an absolute belter if they all turned up. But with the likes of Saphir Du Rheu and Unowwhatimeanharry going elsewhere, the race seems to revolve around Ballyoptic. He has already been touted as a potential World Hurdle winner and he showed plenty of speed to go with the stamina to claim a 2m3 race at Chepstow at the start of the month. He looks a stout and game type and this will be a interesting race for his future. The Romford Pele can do a bit of everything and won well last time out. Rebecca Curtis had some well documented issues last year, but she looks to have her stable in fine fettle early doors and she has some well handicapped horses as a result. Certainly wouldn't rule this one out on that basis. I would've ruled out Native River and Oscar Rock in a stronger race, but both are stout stayers and although perhaps better over fences, they shouldn't be ruled out completely. Especially the former is a really good horse and has won some good hurdles races in the past. I don't see Lil Rockerfeller staying three miles even in this sort of race. Silsol and If In Doubt are both decent horses and could get involved, but for me this one should be all about Ballyoptic.
Elsewhere on this card, Double W's could get shocked by Holly Brush Henry in the novice handicap, while Royal Vacation should go well in the Novice chase.
Over to Ascot then. The listed chase looks weak to me and will perhaps be more of a watching brief, but the handicap hurdle could be an excellent race. Diego du Charmil, Cloonacool, Sternrubin & Ch'Tibello all come here with plenty of chances. The latter won the Scottish champion hurdle in good style, despite hitting the last, but has to shoulder top weight as a result and could find that tricky. C&D winner Sternrubin deadheated in the Ladbroke over C&D after winning the international, but is still high in the weights after those and was well beaten by Ch'tibello in the Scottish CH. Diego Du Charmil won the Fred Winter before being well beaten by Apple's Jade at Aintree. But he's already made a winning reappearance this season when winning at Chepstow at the start of the month, staying on well. Cloonacool was well fancied in a listed race at Market Rasen, but he fell when coming with a challenge. Should still be well weighted and could run a big race. But the one that I'm going for is Modus for Paul Nicholls. The in-form Harry Cobden claims three which brings him down to a nice weight. He disappointed in his last two starts, but there's a race in him and if he can rediscover his best bumper form then he could be very well handicapped. It's a big if and things don't always work out that way, but I've just got that nagging feeling is ready to make his mark. Time will tell.
That leaves the Sodexo Gold Cup, which for me is a two horse race, between the top two in the race. Tea for Two won the Feltham at Christmas, but disappointed subsequently in the Scilly Isles. But he was behind some good horses that day and if he's fit to go off a break he has his conditions to show up well. Top weight could be an issue, but Lizzie Kelly claims five and she's no slouch. Saphir du Rheu goes here instead of his other options and he could be well-in on his very best. The question is if he still has that, and I think he might struggle. He has to show that the Mildmay win was no fluke and he can mix it with the best. At the same time, he's not mixing it with the best here and a fair effort could see him home. Of the others, Voix D'Eau, Fourth Act and Killala Quay could go well, but it's hard to see them beating the top two for me.
Friday 28 October 2016
Wednesday 26 October 2016
The Charlie Hall Chase
Charlie Hall Chase Preview
By Red
Red looks forward towards the big race at Wetherby
Aaah, proper racing. Get yer flat caps and tweed ready boys and girls, we're going jumping. The big one this weekend is the Charlie Hall Chase and I've had a look at the contestants.
And nowhere better to start than the Charlie Hall itself. It's the first real clash of the titans for the season ahead and we could be in for a real treat if there's sufficient rain for Coneygree to turn up. Entered only 'in case the ground gets soft' the 2015 Gold Cup winner does catch the eye at the top of the card. But there will remain questions about his fitness and apparently frailty and I'd be happy to swerve him, especially with the trainer's comments about his participation.
Indeed, you'd much rather look to last year's winner and superstar, Cue Card. Did perhaps everything right, except for being too exuberant at three out in the Gold Cup. I'm still convinced he would have ran Don Cossack very close and possibly even beaten him, but who is to say. He made fairly light work of the field last year and you'd expect him to take the same route to the Cheltenham show-piece this year. I don't think the years will be counting against him just yet and he should have too much for this field. If Coneygree turns up it's a different story, but even then, I'd rather be with Cue Card than Mark Bradstock's charge, considering the ground is more likely to be in the former's favour.
The only lurker in the field is last year's RSA winner, Blaklion. Again, he's probably one that will want a bit more rain to come, but he's certainly not to be underestimated. If he quite has the ability to compete with Cue Card remains to be seen, but he is a C&D winner (in the Towton last year) and he could be an exciting addition to the open company bracket.
The Last Samuri could run a decent race, having finished second in the Grand National, but he's another who perhaps wants more ran and a little further on that showing. He has been very good since joining Kim Bailey though, so don't rule him out all together.
As for the others, Menorah and Dynaste are not top class any more and will fidn younger horses improve past them. Saphir Du Rheu looks set to take up a hurdling option earlier in the week. Wakanda has a decent Class 1 record, having won a hattrick of listed races last season, but he was pulled up in both his Graded starts and has a bit to find. Irish Cavalier needs to find a big improvement from his run at Chepstow (and I can't see that). Sausolito Sunrise is probably a top handicapper, but not quite good enough for this. Finally Virak has ground to make up with Wakanda, never mind the others and I couldn't see him competing here, despite the Nicholls stable form.
Cue Card then looks the most likely winner of the Charlie Hall and it will be interesting to see how he goes with regards to the stable targets. There's a decent horse in orange and black in the same yard and as of Saturday, Tizzard could well have the first two in the Gold Cup market.
It could be an interesting race in behind though and there might be an eye-catcher or two there for some of the other big races this season.
By Red
Red looks forward towards the big race at Wetherby
Aaah, proper racing. Get yer flat caps and tweed ready boys and girls, we're going jumping. The big one this weekend is the Charlie Hall Chase and I've had a look at the contestants.
And nowhere better to start than the Charlie Hall itself. It's the first real clash of the titans for the season ahead and we could be in for a real treat if there's sufficient rain for Coneygree to turn up. Entered only 'in case the ground gets soft' the 2015 Gold Cup winner does catch the eye at the top of the card. But there will remain questions about his fitness and apparently frailty and I'd be happy to swerve him, especially with the trainer's comments about his participation.
Indeed, you'd much rather look to last year's winner and superstar, Cue Card. Did perhaps everything right, except for being too exuberant at three out in the Gold Cup. I'm still convinced he would have ran Don Cossack very close and possibly even beaten him, but who is to say. He made fairly light work of the field last year and you'd expect him to take the same route to the Cheltenham show-piece this year. I don't think the years will be counting against him just yet and he should have too much for this field. If Coneygree turns up it's a different story, but even then, I'd rather be with Cue Card than Mark Bradstock's charge, considering the ground is more likely to be in the former's favour.
The only lurker in the field is last year's RSA winner, Blaklion. Again, he's probably one that will want a bit more rain to come, but he's certainly not to be underestimated. If he quite has the ability to compete with Cue Card remains to be seen, but he is a C&D winner (in the Towton last year) and he could be an exciting addition to the open company bracket.
The Last Samuri could run a decent race, having finished second in the Grand National, but he's another who perhaps wants more ran and a little further on that showing. He has been very good since joining Kim Bailey though, so don't rule him out all together.
As for the others, Menorah and Dynaste are not top class any more and will fidn younger horses improve past them. Saphir Du Rheu looks set to take up a hurdling option earlier in the week. Wakanda has a decent Class 1 record, having won a hattrick of listed races last season, but he was pulled up in both his Graded starts and has a bit to find. Irish Cavalier needs to find a big improvement from his run at Chepstow (and I can't see that). Sausolito Sunrise is probably a top handicapper, but not quite good enough for this. Finally Virak has ground to make up with Wakanda, never mind the others and I couldn't see him competing here, despite the Nicholls stable form.
Cue Card then looks the most likely winner of the Charlie Hall and it will be interesting to see how he goes with regards to the stable targets. There's a decent horse in orange and black in the same yard and as of Saturday, Tizzard could well have the first two in the Gold Cup market.
It could be an interesting race in behind though and there might be an eye-catcher or two there for some of the other big races this season.
Saturday 8 October 2016
Reds Racing Tips 09-09
Evening all,
Just a quick look forward to Chepstow tomorrow and in particular Valadom (28/1) in 4.30. One of my five to follow for the year, the grey gelding takes to hurdles for the first time (as far as I can tell) in his career. I'm not sure what to make of it. You'd imagine it's a pipe-opener for the season ahead over fences, but you wouldn't give your horse a pipe-opener over hurdles in a Grade Two race, would you? Especially if that's his first time over hurdles in public. So there must be more to this than just a pipe-opener.
He races with shared bottom weight, which should help him here and if he bounces out in front like he usually does and lays down a high pace, he could be hard to peg back. He's a great jumper of a fence and if he can translate that to hurdles, he could turn it into a real stamina test. Obviously there's plenty of others in this field with better credentials, but if Valadom can copy his early season form from last year (when made all over 2m4 at Worcester) he could have a say in this race.
Elswhere, Rebecca Curtis' yard is in good form, so Irish Cavalier could go well in the 4.00, where Sire de Grugy will have to overcome top weight and I'm not convinced he's still good enough to do that. I also have Potters Corner (2.50) in my tracker, but I think he might struggle over this longer distance, so Arpege D'Alene could bounce back over fences. Finally Double Ross (5.00) goes pretty well fresh, hasn't raced of a rating below 150 since coming second in January 2014 and the Twiston-Davies' yard are in great form. Could go very well if he leaves the back end of last season behind.
Just a quick look forward to Chepstow tomorrow and in particular Valadom (28/1) in 4.30. One of my five to follow for the year, the grey gelding takes to hurdles for the first time (as far as I can tell) in his career. I'm not sure what to make of it. You'd imagine it's a pipe-opener for the season ahead over fences, but you wouldn't give your horse a pipe-opener over hurdles in a Grade Two race, would you? Especially if that's his first time over hurdles in public. So there must be more to this than just a pipe-opener.
He races with shared bottom weight, which should help him here and if he bounces out in front like he usually does and lays down a high pace, he could be hard to peg back. He's a great jumper of a fence and if he can translate that to hurdles, he could turn it into a real stamina test. Obviously there's plenty of others in this field with better credentials, but if Valadom can copy his early season form from last year (when made all over 2m4 at Worcester) he could have a say in this race.
Elswhere, Rebecca Curtis' yard is in good form, so Irish Cavalier could go well in the 4.00, where Sire de Grugy will have to overcome top weight and I'm not convinced he's still good enough to do that. I also have Potters Corner (2.50) in my tracker, but I think he might struggle over this longer distance, so Arpege D'Alene could bounce back over fences. Finally Double Ross (5.00) goes pretty well fresh, hasn't raced of a rating below 150 since coming second in January 2014 and the Twiston-Davies' yard are in great form. Could go very well if he leaves the back end of last season behind.
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