Sunday 31 January 2016

Reds Racing Tips 31-01

Morning all,

A great day's racing yesterday, with plenty of spectacle. Yanworth and Thistlecrack put their respective markers down for the festival, while Gold Cup favourite Djakadam took a tumble. This saw him ease in the market with his stablemate Vautour now claiming favouritism. Impressive winner Smad Place also moved, to be as short as 10s in some places. I'll come back to do a full write up of the weekend after today's racing, but as far as my selections go, we made a small profit again. six points. I'll also do a few review of my efforts in January after today, but that will probably be sometime next week.

Only two meetings today, and it's Sedgefield where my interest lies today. In the last race, Hatton Springs comes here on the back of a win and has an able claimer on board to negate a six pound rise in the weights. She battled on well to win previously and that should stand here in good stead here.

In the race before that Mwaleshi has dropped right down the handicap and his third last time out suggests he's coming back to form. That trip was probably too short and this should suit him better. Danny Cook and Sue Smith are having a good time of late, so hopefully they can follow up here again

31-01
Punchestown
1.30 Emily's Flame 9/1
2.00 Ball D'Arc 11/2
2.30 High Stratos 12/1
3.00 Mozoltov  5/1
3.30 Love Rory 5/2
4.05 Baie Des Iles 10/3
4.35 Bright Tomorrow 8/1

Sedgefield
1.45 Libby Mae 5/2
2.15 Good Vibration 9/4
2.45 Cyclop 5/1
3.15 Card Game 8/1
3.50 Mwaleshi  4/1 NB
4.20 Hatton Springs 10/3 NAP

Saturday 30 January 2016

Reds Racing Tips 30-01

Morning all,

Here's the selections for Saturday's racing. A precautionary note for Cheltenham as they are inspecting at 10am to see if racing is possible. Lots of rain overnight has left the track waterlogged in places and I'm sure this close to the festival they don't want to risk things.


30-01
Doncaster
12.30 Deputy Commander 6/1
1.00 Shaneshill 15/8
1.30 Red Spinner 5/1
2.05 Lily Waugh 6/1
2.40 Barters Hill 10/11
3.15 Double Ross 14/1
3.50 McGregors Cottage 11/2
4.25 Miss Spent 6/1

Cheltenham
12.40 Clan des Obeaux 6/4
1.15 Kings Odessey 10/1
1.50 Djakadam 8/13 Tracker
2.25 Tenor Nivernais 6/1
3.00 Clondaw Cian 33/1 Tracker
3.35 Thistlecrack 4/5
4.10 Champagne At Tara 6/1

Fairyhouse
12.50 Deadpan 11/4
1.20 Delegate 7/2
1.55 Sumos Novios 3/1
2.30 Sunsetstorise 9/4
3.05 Limini 2/7 Tracker
3.40 Overtures 8/1
4.15 Avellino 5/4

Lingfield
1.40 Ohsosecret 9/1
2.15 Alshan Fajer 6/1
2.50 Milyaar 25/1
3.25 Intrude 6/1
4.00 Ready Steady 12/1
4.30 Clement 5/2

Uttoxeter
1.45 Nam Hai 15/8 
2.20 Over My Head 11/4
2.55 Just So Cool 6/1
3.30 Bobble Boru 4/1
4.05 Winston Churchill 4/1
4.35 Marlee Massee 11/8

Friday 29 January 2016

Reds Racing Tips 29-01

Morning all,

A good end to the day yesterday helped us to lock in a profit, but there was disappointment for the named horses. Tracker horse Arbre De Vie jumped terribly and was a short price favourite that got turned over. The NAP, Mia's Storm was travelling reasonably well, but was hampered and blundered afterwards to finish fourth. It was not much better for the next best Aigle De La See, who struggled and was pulled up, but at least the third selection did the business. I tipped Jaarih at 5/1, but he had shortened into 5/2 by the time they went off. He hung left a bit, but did enough to hold off the challengers to claim victory by half a length. 

Today, we have two tracker horses going and I'm really looking forward to seeing Buveur D'Air. I think he's Nicky Henderson's big hope for the Supreme and I'll be interested to see how he fares. At Doncaster, Night In Milan also goes and should have a good chance. 

The NAP today comes from the All Weather at Lingfield. I've been tracking Kalkrand for a while now and he won well last time out over C&D. It has taken him some time to get going and he started out with some underwhelming performances, but the step up into handicaps has made the difference. He's up four lbs for his latest success, but I don't think that's enough to stop him.

Westren Warrior was second in the Lanzarote, making a real impression on handicap debut and I can see him going well again here. There's some tough competition in this race, but I think the extra distance will suit him and he can go well again today.

Finally we have Coozan George for Malcolm Jefferson. He looks the type to improve for fences and did well in his handicap hurdles run last time out. He's never ran at Doncaster before, but I think that shouldn't be a problem. At the prices he's a decent EW bet.

29-01
Doncaster
12.50 Coozan George 13/2 3B
1.25 Sarazen Bridge 22/1
2.00 Cyrien Star  11/2
2.30 Night In Milan 13/2 Tracker
3.05 Saint Roque 5/2
3.40 Emperor Sakhee 16/1
4.10 Mazovian 5/1

Huntingdon
1.00 Arthur McBride 4/1
1.35 Buveur D'air 1/6 Tracker
2.10 Denali Highway 6/1
2.40 Westren Warrior 5/1 NB
3.15 Neworld 11/2
3.50 Abricot De L'oasis 4/1
4.20 Thomas Campbell 4/1

Lingfield
1.15 Inswing 10/1
1.50 Ragner 6/4
2.20 Smugglers Lane 5/2
2.50 Kalkrand 11/8 NAP
3.25 Custard The Dragon 11/10
4.00 First Rebellion 2/1
4.30 Classic Mission 5/1

Wolverhampton
4.45 Stanlow 7/1
5.15 Logarithm 9/2
5.45 Villa Royale 14/1
6.15 What A Party 11/2
6.45 Dandys Perier 20/1
7.15 Poor Duke 9/1

Dundalk
5.30 Little Sweetheart 4/1
6.00 Spirit Glance 11/2
6.30 Captain Midnight 11/2
7.00 Shark Island 12/1
7.30 Bishan Bedi 2/1
8.00 Excelli 2/1
8.30 General Bunching 28/1
9.00 Masterchippy 12/1

Thursday 28 January 2016

Reds Racing Tips 28-01

Morning all,

I'm pressed for time this morning, so no full write up I'm afraid. Shall endeavour to do better tomorrow.

Good luck with your selections

28-01
Thurles
1.05 Sizing Silver 7/1
1.40 Carrigmoorna Rock 13/8
2.15 Avant Tout 2/1
2.45 Arbre De Vie 2/7 Tracker
3.20 Drishogue Boy 7/2
3.55 Milanesque 10/1

Fakenham
1.25 Lake Chapala 9/2
2.00 Girly Girl  9/4
2.30 Aigle De La See 7/2 NB
3.05 Haut Bages 16/1
3.40 Halo Moon 11/8
4.10 Jumandtravel 7/2

Southwell
1.35 Eleuthera 13/8
2.10 Jaarih 5/1 3B
2.40 Rupert Boy 5/2
3.15 Autumn Blossom 3/1
3.50 Final 1/1
4.20 Celestial Dancer 8/1

Warwick
1.50 Fixe Le Kap 8/15
2.20 Newton Thistle 8/1
2.55 Knight of the Realm 8/1
3.30 Mia's Storm 5/4 NAP
4.00 Mendip Express 4/7
4.30 Shrewd Tactics 3/1

Chelmsford City
5.00 Honiton Lace 11/2
5.30 San Quentin 5/2
6.05 Megara 9/4
6.40 Bosham 6/1
7.10 Captain Lars 10/1
7.40 West Coast Flyer 4/1
8.10 Je T'Aime Encore 5/1

Wednesday 27 January 2016

Reds Racing Tips 27-01

Morning all,

A mixed day yesterday, but we ended on a narrow profit for the day. The NAP was disappointing, running out of steam after leading much of the early proceedings. The NB stayed on strongly to claim the win, having travelled in mid division for most of the way 'round. Finally, the 3B was at the back of the pack, but stayed on to finish fourth. A bit further up the track could've seen him claim a valuable place.

For today, the NAP comes from Catterick's 3.35. Nautical Twilight is in search of a hattrick for Malcolm Jefferson having been a ten length winner over C&D previous. This is a tricky race, with plenty of C&D form, but the manner of victory of the selection was impressive last time out and he can defy an 8lb rise to complete the hattrick.

We go to Kempton next for the 6.10. Kingsley Klarion was somewhat disappointing last time out at Lingfield, but still finished second. He still holds an excellent All-Weather record and is sure to get a decent pace to aim at here. All that, combined with the plum draw in stall one and Joe Fanning on board and this can surely be a winning combination.

We stay at Kempton for the 3B. Russian Bolero has been hard to win with, but has ran in much higher Grade stuff than this abroad, including the German Derby. That isn't necessarily as massive boost to his chances, but his second place last time out at Lingfield was a good effort, despite a slow start. A better break here could see him improve on that.

27-01
Lingfield
1.00 Justice First 7/2
1.30 Palmina 10/1
2.00 Subtle Knife 6/1
2.35 He's A Dreamer 5/2
3.10 Winterlude 15/2
3.45 Activation 10/1
4.15 Binky Blue 1/1

Thurles
1.10 Cilento 11/2
1.45 Conna Cross 18/1
2.15 Spring Forward 10/1
2.50 Blessed King 9/4
3.25 Just Cause 11/4
4.00 Edvardo 2/1
4.30 Sutton Manor 5/6

Catterick
1.20 Point The Way 2/1
1.50 Over And Above 6/1
2.25 Poulanassy 13/8
3.00 Major Ivan 3/1
3.35 Nautical Twilight 11/4 NAP
4.05 Notebook 5/1

Kempton
4.40 Lutine Charlie 11/2
5.10 Russian Bolero 9/2 3B
5.40 Fern Owl 13/8
6.10 Kingsley Klarion 10/3 NB
6.40 Sky Ferry 5/1
7.10 Master of Song 7/2
7.40 Crowning Star 10/1
8.10 Awesome Rock 9/1

Tuesday 26 January 2016

23/24 January Weekend Review

The Weekend Review

By @Redgameracer

Red looks back on the weekend action and picks out any Cheltenham pointers as well as a few eye catchers.

It was another weekend of Willie Mullins dominance. On Saturday, Un de Sceaux and Vroum Vroum Mag both mopped up at Ascot, without having to make too much of an effort. That was followed up by a short price four-time at Leopardstown where A Toi Phil and Village Mystic swooped for the minor prizes before superstars Faugheen and Douvan obliterated their opponents in the Irish Champion Hurdle and the Irish Arkle. 

But let's start on Saturday. Questions were being asked about Un de Sceaux leading up to the Clarence House Chase, but he answered them all in fine style as he ran out a five length winner over Sire de Grugy. His fall last time out had backers worried, but he made no mistakes and jumped smartly to claim victory. The eye catching run in the field however, was from Traffic Fluide who was denied second by a short head. Gary Moore's second runner was unfancied, but he's only a six year old and may well have plenty of potential going forward. Vroum Vroum Mag's unbeaten record was never in much doubt and although this was her toughest task yet, she coped well. She's still in both the Mares and the World Hurdle and a lot will depend on Annie Power's well being as to where she ends up at the festival. 

Earlier on the card, Gibralfaro won the opener for Alan King and although the favourite had to work for his win, he stayed on well to claim the spoils. He remains in the picture for the Triumph Hurdle at 14/1. Baron Alco's brave front running performance was ultimately in vain as he finished second to Rock the Kasbah, one of two winners on the card for Richard Johnson along with Duke Des Champs. The latter was very impressive and will be one to keep an eye on for the future.

Over at Haydock, Bristol De Mai made light work of what looked like a tricky race romping home by 32 lengths in bottomless conditions. A step up in trip seems likely and Nigel Twiston-Davies has suggested the JLT (12/1 best price) and the RSA as his festival options. Paul Nicholls had another disappointing Saturday and his well fancied Le Prezien was overturned by Its'afreebee for Dan Skelton in the Supreme Novices Trail. It was a cracking race and the latter stayed on strongly to deny the challenge from his fancied opponent. The New One was made to work hard in the Champion Hurdle Trial by Rayvin Black, but managed to get home in the end. It won't have done his chances in the main event any good. In the last race, Bun Doran made a smart impression as he beat Vintage Clouds, both of whom were well ahead of the rest of the field. They'll both be worth keeping an eye out for in future races as well.

Sunday's big racing came from Leopardstown and Willie Mullins' stars Faugheen and Douvan both made a big impression. The former was especially impressive, having lost his unbeaten record to Nichols Canyon earlier in the season. He was taken on for the lead by that rival, but Faugheen simply blew them all away. It was a real star performance and he immediately shortened for the Champion Hurdle again. Arctic Fire stayed on for second ahead of Nichols Canyon, the latter possibly still feeling the effects of a hard fought victory over Christmas. Douvan didn't have much to beat and didn't have to get off the bridle in cruising up to win the Irish Arkle. Both performances don't bode well for the bookies come Cheltenham time, as I'd imagine they'll both bolt up.

Jessica Harrington's Don't Touch It lived up to his favourite tag, beating Beau Mome by thirteen lengths. He asserted on the run in, impressively so and looks a nice type. That win itself was a form boost for Mullins' A Toi Phil and the Gigginstown owned horse shortened for the Neptune on the back of a assured jumping performance, culminating in a seven length win. He's now 16/1 for the Neptune. 

Reds Racing Tips 26-01

Morning all,

A bumper day at Wolverhampton yesterday, thanks to three winners (10/3, 12/1 and 9/2) and a couple of places. Not quite the same effort at Kempton, but overall, we still came away with over twenty points profit.

Three meetings today, two over obstacles and one on the level and I've picked out three that I think will go close.

Firs tup, the NAP runs in Wetherby's opener. For Goodness Sake was a good runner up on debut at Warwick in tough conditions and she'll encounter more of the same here. Warren Greatex and Gavin Sheehan have been in decent form this season and it would be no surprise to see this filly improve from her second place last time out and go one better here today.

From there, we go to Leicster for their opener and Norse Light looks sure to go close. David Dennis' charge has been second last twice he's raced, both times in similar conditions and he gets plenty of weight from his main market rivals here today. There's no reason why he can't be in the mix again this time around.

Finally, I'm going to take a bit of a punt on Swift Cedar in the 2.40 at Southwell. This is a pretty hot race, but he's two from four over this track and has won on his only appearance over C&D. Josephine Gordon is a jockey in hot forma nd she takes five pounds off to give the six year old a massive advantage in the weights. Gordon was also on board for his latest win back in December and at 11/1, he's worth a little each way poke.

26-01
Wetherby
1.10 For Goodness Sake 7/4 NAP
1.45 Simmply Sam 8/1
2.20 Longueville Flyer 6/1
2.50 Rocky Stone 11/2
3.25 Throthehatch 9/2
4.00 No Comment 13/8

Leicester
1.20 Norse Light 9/2 NB
1.55 Tara Flow 11/10
2.30 On Tour 11/8
3.00 Briery Queen 5/2
3.35 Call The Detective 2/1
4.10 Black Narcissus 7/2

Southwell
1.30 Sea of Uncertainty 4/1
2.05 Rockwood 5/1
2.40 Swift Cedar 11/1 3B
3.10 Anonymous John 13/2
3.45 Peace Seeker 4/9
4.20 Sir Geoffry 5/1

Monday 25 January 2016

Reds Racing Tips 25-01

Morning all,

A great weekend's racing with plenty of pointers for Cheltenham. We'll come to that in the weekend review though, so I'll skip straight to today's action

The NAP today is Foylesideview in the last at Wolves. He was left with too much to do last time after a poor start, but still got up for third. If he gets away on level terms this time, he'll have an excellent chance based on his C&D form. 

The next best comes slightly earlier on the card. Jive Time only finished sixth in his sole start to date, having struggled in the early stages. He got going close to home though and today's step up in trip should help him get his act together. Luke Morris has an excellent all weather record and he can pilot him to victory today.

25-01
Kempton
1.05 Snowball 4/1
1.35 Bol D'Air 10/1
2.10 Burning Desire 12/1
2.40 Padge 15/2 Tracker
3.10 A Hare Breath 8/13
3.45 Barrakilla 4/1
4.20 Debdebdeb 2/1

Wolverhampton
2.20 Romancingthestone 8/1
2.50 Israfel 10/3
3.25 Innish Man 15/2
4.00 Jamhoori 12/1
4.30 Jive Time 9/2 NB
5.00 Robins Pearl 5/2
5.30 Basil Berry 12/1
6.00 Foylesideview 10/3 NAP

Friday 22 January 2016

Reds Racing Tips 23-01

Evening all,

Four winners in a row at Lingfield made it a good day on Friday, coming away with a ten point profit.No such luck for the best three though, all of them disappointing and finishing out of the frame

Saturday's racing looks very good indeed, with two great cards at Ascot and Haydock and the three best bets all come from the latter meeting. Bristol De Mai has to take on hot form Otago Trail, but I reckon he can come away with the win here. They both have record on the going and distance, but Bristol De Mai has been proven at this sort of level, winning a Grade One over hurdles previously. His only two defeats over fences have come at the hands of Garde La Victoire and Ar Mad. He should relish the challenge of Haydock and I think he will go well here.

The Next Best runs in the big chase of the day, the Peter Marsh and I really fancy Fingal Bay to run a big race. He's had to tough races, including the Hennessy at the end of last year, but he'll love these conditions. He's in off a lovely weight, having been dropped one pound from his latest Ascot run as well. Richard Johnson is engaged elsewhere, so TJ O'Brien takes the ride for the first time, but I don't think that will cause a problem.

Finally in the last, the fixed brush hurdle, Bun Doran should have a great chance. He won on his first run for Tom George in a bumper, staying on strongly. He then came fourth to Buveur D'Air in a maiden hurdle and the form of that race has worked out really well, with a number of runners having gone in since. He's certainly open to improvement and could give Paddy Brennan a great race.

For my views on the three graded races at Ascot, have a look here

23-01
Lingfield
12.35 Franco's Secret 6/1
1.10 Sea of Flames 10/1
1.45 Take The Helm 6/1
2.20 Myfiftythreedotcom 12/1
2.55 Pinzolo 2/1
3.30 Court Minstrel 10/11
4.05 Picansort 12/1

Ascot
12.40 Gibralfaro 5/6
1.15 Capilla 8/1
1.50 Vroum Vroum Mag 1/2 Tracker
2.25 Baron Alco 14/1 
3.00 Un de Sceaux 4/6 Tracker
3.35 Bernadelli 12/1
4.10 Masterplan 8/1

Navan
12.50 Gurteen 4/7
1.20 Bright New Dawn 10/3
1.55 Conal 11/2 Tracker
2.30 Captain Bizarro 5/1 
3.05 Angus Milan 3/1
3.40 Arctic Skipper 5/2
4.15 Montana Slim 6/1

Haydock
1.00 Baywing 11/4 
1.30 Bristol De Mai 9/4 NAP
2.05 Le Prezien 11/10
2.40 Rayvin Black 12/1
3.15 Fingal Bay 5/1 NB
3.50 Morning Royalty 7/2
4.20 Bun Doran 9/2 3B

Taunton
1.35 Barney Dwan 9/4 
2.10 Air Horse One  11/4
2.45 Johns Luck 9/2
3.20 Sandy Beach 4/1
3.55 Blue Buttons 4/1
4.30 Helium 10/1

Weekend Preview - Ascot

Weekend Preview - Ascot
Expected going: Soft-Heavy in places
By @Redgameracer

1.50 The Warfield Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

We start off the graded races with the Warfield Mares Hurdle, although the race seems to have little bearing on what happens in the Mares Hurdle at the festival. Interesting to see that Willie Mullins sends Vroum Vroum Mag (4/9) over for this. It begs the question as to her festival target. She has entries in both the World Hurdle and the Mares Hurdle and with this being over the further distance, you could well anticipate a tilt at the former. Unbeaten since joining the Mullins yard, this seven year old mare has won both over timber and over fences and is surely the classiest animal in the lineup. Barring any mishaps, she should be the one crossing the line first.

Harry Fry won this the last two years and he sends Desert Queen (7/1) out this time ‘round. She won well here back in November over 2m5f, but will need to make up nearly two lengths on Sheena West’s Cannon Fodder (50/1) on her last appearance at Kempton over three miles. The distance of nearly three miles might prove too much for Fry’s eight year old. Although Cannon Fodder won that day, it seems unlikely that a repeat is on the card here. That victory was only her third in 28 races and I can’t imagine that she’ll follow up again.

More of interest is Rebecca Curtis’ Aurore D’Estruval (8/1). She is burdened with top weight, but was an excellent hurdler for John Quinn before switching yards. She looked in need of the run after nearly a year off last time out at Cheltenham, but that could well have tuned her up for a poke at this. At the same price, The Govaness (8/1) for Richard Newland finished second last time out behind Polly Peachum. Her only trip over this sort of distance came at Haydock last may when she was third and the seven year old mare is not without a chance here.

The others are all double figure prices, but there’s two there that I think have some potential. First of all, Kalane (16/1) for Charlie Longsdon. She was extremely impressive in a novice chase over at Huntingdon in November and has won a handicap hurdle over 2m5 before finishing third to Annie Power at Punchestown. A faller last time out at Doncaster, this may just be a confidence booster, but if she runs to the level she did last spring, she’ll be a player. (Ed: She’s set to run in a chase at Market Rasen on Friday, so is unlikely to run) Another at a price is Lily Waugh (16/1). She’s won her last three outings, although none of them over quite this far. She hasn’t exactly shone on her previous trips over this sort of distance, but she’s one in form and she gets in of bottom weight. If David Noonan takes the ride again, he’ll take another five pounds off and that could well see her in a good place. She’s also entered in the 2.25.

With doubts over the participation of both Lily Waugh and Kalane, I'd stick with The Govaness for each way purposes. Vroum Vroum Mag seems the likely winner however.

Selection The Govaness 8/1 EW

Prediction 1. Vroum Vroum Mag 2. Daylight (ha!) 3. The Govaness.

2.25 Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle(Grade 3)

A big field looks set to line up for this handicap hurdle over 2m3f. The definitive list of runners has not yet been declared, but I’ll look at a couple that will have chances. First up Lil Rockefeller (14/1), who won two starts ago at Sandown, staying on well to beat Devilment before being a good second to Camping Ground on New Years Day. He could not make an impression on the winner that day, but was well clear of the rest of the field. He won at Ascot as a juvenile, so he’s familiar with the track, but does have to shoulder a fairly hefty weight if he runs. At the other end of the spectrum there’s Theo’s Charm (8/1). The six year old will only have 10-07 on his back and he’s won his last two start in tough conditions at Plumpton. He’s got an excellent record in this sort of going, with three wins and two places. He does have a step up in trip to worry about, but I don’t think that’ll be too big a problem.

Also near the head of the market is Rock the Kasbah (7/1) for Phillip Hobbs. He ran on strongly in November to beat Aerlite Supreme at Haydock and loves these conditions. He’s never ran at Ascot before, but Hobbs will have him primed for this and I’d imagine he’ll give a good account of himself. Zulu Oscar (10/1) is set to go for Harry Fry, having won well at the Christmas meeting at Kempton. This is tougher, but Un Beau Roman, who was well behind that day, has won again since and he’s another who will thrive in conditions. Baron Alco (14/1) comes here in excellent form for Gary Moore, with three wins since the summer. He was well behind Lil Rockefeller in the spring, but seems to have turned the corner since then and won three on the bounce. All those races were in Class 3 company, so he’s making a step up, but the Moore yard is in pretty good shape and I think Baron Alco is a good horse.

Nicky Henderson has quite a few entries, Theinval (18/1), Kilcrea Vale (9/1), Captain Conan (20/1) and Sugar Baron (16/1). Of those Kilcrea Vale is the one that would interest me. A winner twice before falling on his latest appearance, this six year old has looked good so far. He was leading when he fell and it’s hard to say whether he would’ve gone on to win it, but he certainly was right up there with a chance. If he hasn’t suffered any mishaps from that, he will be a player here. Theinval has won valuable handicap hurdles in the past, but mainly on better ground and you’d have to worry about his ability to handle softer conditions in combination with top weight. Captain Conan hasn’t been seen for nearly 700 days and I can’t see him doing much here. Sugar Baron would need to make a big improvement from Boxing Day to contend here.

Value at Risk (9/1) is entered for Dan Skelton, having come down on both his previous chase starts. This will obviously be used as a confidence booster, so I’m not expecting him to set the world alight, but at the same time, the seven year old is no slouch and could give a good account. Willie Mullins has Petite Parisienne (18/1) entered and if she runs, she could be anything. Only a five year old, so there’s plenty of improvement in her yet, she disappointed last time out at Sandown despite being second favourite. But she has a good record in the conditions and could go well. Rayvin Black (20/1) won well at the start of the year, but this is a step up for him and he could struggle.

At this stage I’d take two against the field and those two would be Lil Rockefeller and Baron Alco, both at 14/1 each way.

3.00 Clarence House Chase (Grade 1)

The sole Grade One race on Saturday comes from Ascot and it’s the Clarence House Chase at 3pm. It’s usually a good measure for the Champion Chase at the Festival. The last three winners all going on to win the QMCC, although Sprinter Sacre’s win in 2013 was at Cheltenham after snow forced the race to be moved. Since the race was upgraded to a Grade One in 2007, it has been won by eight year olds five times out of eight runnings and never by a horse older than eight. Six winners have been French bred, while all eight winners had previously posted at Racing Post Rating above 160 (Seven of them having been rated above 169 in the season) and seven winners were rated above 165. Last time out winners do well, seven out of eight having won last time out and six out of eight had previously won a Grade One Chase.

As it stands (Wednesday) seven are declared for the Clarence House Chase, with Un de Sceaux (8/13) the odds-on favourite. Willie Mullins’ charge is a very good horse, but he’s a risky jumper as attested by his record of run six, won four, fallen two. If he turns up and stays on his feet, he wins, that’s as simple as it is, really. His latest effort at Leopardstown on the 27th, he was in the lead and going well when he came down, but it is worth to note that the horse got back up and despite losing a lot of ground, ran past the post first. For all intents and purposes, he is the class act in the field and if he stays on his feet, he’ll win. But that IF is sizeable enough that you wouldn’t back him, certainly not at the prices quoted. He is the only eight your old in the lineup and rated at 168, so ticks those two stats boxes.

Second in the betting is the ten year old Sire De Grugy (5/2). Gary Moore’s charge is having something of a revival this year, having won the Tingle Creek before coming second to Sprinter Sacre in the Desert Orchid. But for all that, he’s not the same horse he once was. His Tingle Creek victory was not without luck, his jump at the last severely hampering Special Tiara. That race had cut up anyway, with both Simonsig and Un de Sceaux pulling out, so it’s a bit of a hollow victory. To win this race again as a ten year old will take some doing, but if Un de Sceaux doesn’t run, there will be every opportunity for him to overturn the stats. He is the highest rated horse at 169, so on that front he should have no worries.

That elsewhere could well be Vibrato Valtat (11/1). Paul Nicholls’ grey beat Sire De Grugy in the Haldon Gold Cup, but subsequently finished third behind his rival on two occasions. Nicholls has mooted a step up in trip for the seven year old, but he stays over 2 miles here. Interesting to see that Noel Fehily takes the ride and he’s won both his rides on Vibrato Valtat. He won three valuable novice chases last season (the Henry VIII, the Wayward Lad & the Kingmaker) and certainly has the ability to do well. It’s just a question of will he be able to keep up with the front two in the market. He certainly makes more appeal on EW terms than the others.

The two others in the race are Simply Ned (20/1) and Traffic Fluide (25/1) and I hate to say it, but I don’t think that those two are good enough to compete Simply Ned had his change last time out when Un de Sceaux went over, but lost out to Flemenstar and you’d have to think that he would struggle to overturn any of these here. Traffic Fluide meanwhile is on seasonal reappearance and is probably more one for the future.

Selection Vibrato Valtat EW @ 11/1

Prediction 1. Un de Sceaux 2. Vibrato Valtat 3. Sire de Grugy

Reds Racing Tips 22-01

Morning all,

Another costly day yesterday, although we did manage a winner on the 3B, which drifted out to 8/1, but disappointment for the NAP and the NB who both finished second. As predicted some great racing over in Ireland where My Murphy was a game winner of the Thyestes and Alpha des Obeaux claimed the Galmoy Hurdle to strengthen his World Hurdle claims. 

Chepstow called off today due to waterlogging, but we still have three all-weather meetings and a one over jumps to get stuck into. Two of the best bets run at Market Rasen today, including the NAP in the form of Kalane. I'm actually a bit disappointed, because I was going to put her up as my each way selection for the Mares Hurdle at Ascot tomorrow, but it doesn't seem likely that she'll go there. She jumped well on her Chase debut at Huntingdon, before taking a tumble at Doncaster when tiring. Despite that, she's still a progressive mare and gets in off a lovely weight of 10-03 and should really dispatch of these.

For the next best, we go to Dundalk's 6.00 where Ondamoura is the form pick. Four places and a win out of the last five and only one pound higher than his close second last time out over C&D, he stands a really good chance off picking up another win.

Back to Market Rasen for our final selection and I'm a big fan of Malcolm Jefferson. He runs Renoyr in the 1.50, who won well over C&D two starts ago. He couldn't follow up at Kelso over slightly further, finishing only third, but if he runs to his last run on this track, he should have a great chance. I think the drop down in trip will suit him and although this looks competitive, he can be there or thereabouts

22-01
Lingfield
12.50 Justice Rock 7/1
1.25 Barton Lodge 5/1
2.00 Spring Loaded 6/1
2.30 Shambalar  10/11
3.05 Realize 5/1
3.40 Inaam 10/3
4.10 Secret Millionaire 6/1

Market Rasen
1.15 Abbreviate 10/3 
1.50 Renoyr 7/1 3B
2.20 Kalane 9/4 NAP Tracker
2.55 Thinger Licht 11/2
3.30 Cotillion 4/1
4.00 Tanarpino 10/11

Wolverhampton
4.35 Quality Art 5/1
5.10 Poor Duke 16/1
5.45 Lions Charge 6/1
6.15 Sweet Temptation 5/1
6.45 Hawk Moth 11/1
7.15 Justice Grace 11/2

Dundalk
5.30 Belong 1/1
6.00 Ondamoura 4/1 NB
6.30 Dark Alliance 11/2
7.00 Go Kart 8/13
7.30 Meddling 14/1 
8.00 Sister Slew 12/1
8.30 Northern Surprise 4/1
9.00 Dashing Chief 6/1

Thursday 21 January 2016

Reds Racing Tips 21-01

Morning all

A day to forget yesterday, but we get back on the horse again today. Some good racing over in Ireland at Gowran Park should be the highlight of the day.

I'm pressed for time today, so no big write up on the best three, my apologies for that, but they all should give a decent account of themselves

21-01
Southwell
12.40 Fujin 11/10
1.10 Kingscombe 14/1
1.45 Pivotal Dream 8/1
2.20 Canford Thompson 10/1
2.55 Greyfriarschorista 3/1 NB
3.30 Limerick Lord 5/2
4.05 Final 4/1

Gowran Park
12.55 Footpad 1/8
1.25 Au Quart De Tour 10/11
2.00 At Fishers Cross 7/1
2.35 Black Ice 6/1
3.10 Rule The World 10/1
3.45 Tell Us More 4/9
4.20 Avenir D'une Vie 4/5 Tracker

Wincanton
1.35 Kap Jazz 12/1 
2.10 Quite By Chance 6/1 3B
2.45 Dawson City 10/3 Tracker NAP
3.20 Jumps Road 18/1
3.55 Abigail Lynch 16/1
4.25 Casper King 2/1

Chelmsford City
5.10 Schoolboy Error 9/4 
5.40 Gaelic Silver 13/8
6.10 Us Navy Seal 9/1 
6.40 Summer Music 4/1
7.10 Ohsosecret 4/1
7.40 Rosie Crowe 16/1
8.10 Humour 7/1

Wednesday 20 January 2016

Reds Racing Tips 20-01

Morning all,

Not the greatest of days yesterday, despite starting off with an 8/1 winner. The NAP Un Noble was victorious however, and next best Crosse Fire placed to avoid any loses, but otherwise it wasn't the best effort.

Today gives us a lot more chances, with four meetings going (after Newbury fell victim to frost). The best three come from Musselburgh and Lingfield today, with the NAP running over jumps at the first venue. Shrewd won very impressively on his hurdles debut over C&D last time out and although he's been hit with a massive 15 lb rise in the weights, that may not be enough to stop him. Holly Brush Henry rates the obvious danger, but that rival has to carry a stone more than the selection and that could well be too much.

The Next Best runs in the last at Lingfield. I fancy Hierarch to upset the odds here and beat the well fancied Exalted. Both winners last time out, the selection has course and distance form, while Exalted has never won over this distance. That extra experience should stand Hierarch in good stead and could well make the difference 

In the 1.35 at the same venue, Be Royale will look to build on a fourth place finish last time out. Cathy Gannon is a jockey in terrific form and I'm hoping that first time cheekpieces can spark a bit of improvement for Mick Appleby's mare. Certainly some each way value there.

20-01
Lingfield
12.30 Fearbuster 11/8
1.00 J'aspire 2/1
1.35 Be Royale 9/1 3B
2.10 Shirataki 8/1
2.45 Kingsley Klarion 9/2
3.20 Breakheart 12/1
3.55 Hierarch 9/2 NB

Fairyhouse
12.45 Altiepix 1/1
1.15 Witness of Fashion 4/1
1.50 Danali 20/1
2.25 Uaintseenothingyet 4/1
3.00 Annie Alainn 33/1
3.35 Overtures  12/1
4.10 She's Otto 7/2

Musselburgh
1.10 Flaming Thistle 9/1
1.45 Definitely Better 9/2
2.20 Mo Chailin 8/1
2.55 Shrewd 11/4 NAP
3.30 On the Case 7/2
4.05 Ganbei 10/1

Kempton
4.40 Trigger Park  7/1
5.10 Frozen Force 7/1
5.40 Oakley Girl 10/11
6.10 Elle Rebelle 8/1
6.40 Bogardus 8/1
7.10 Stamp of Approval 10/1

Tuesday 19 January 2016

16/17 January Weekend Review

The Weekend Review
By @Redgameracer

Red looks back on the weekend action and picks out any Cheltenham pointers as well as a few eye catchers.

It was a good weekend for racing, with plenty of spectacle and some exciting races on both sides of the Irish Sea. Black Hercules was visually impressive in landing the three mile chase at Warwick, jumping very well and travelling smoothly throughout. There's still three possibilities open for him at the Festival in the JLT, the RSA and the National Hunt chase and he would have the ability to compete in all three of those. Considering his last run was over 3 miles, the RSA seems likely, but Willie Mullins holds his cards close his chest and probably won't make a decision until quite near the time.

On the same card, Thomas Hobson was impressive to make all to give Danny & Willie Mullins the double. I can see why Rich Ricci says he reminds him of Faugheen, he's got a great engine, travels well, but his jumping can be scratchy. This time however, there was none of that and although the trip and the going seemed to catch up with him, he held on to fend off his stable mate Open Eagle. Better ground could seem him stay on better at this trip, but a shorter trip could also be called for. The bookmakers seem to think the Neptune will be the likely target though and he's as short as 16/1 for that.

Elsewhere on the card, there was success for the Bradstocks as Flintham made all to land the Pertemps qualifier from Popples Bay, who stayed on strongly, but couldn't catch Coneygree's half-brother. Those two were well clear of the rest of the field. Finally, the Betfred Classic Chase was won by one of the few official white racehorses, Russe Blanc, giving Kerry Lee yet another success in her early training career. It was a proper slog and only five horses managed to complete the gruelling 3m5f trip, with the white gamely staying on to defy Midnight Prayer. 

Over in Wetherby, L'Ami Serge made it two from two over fences. Again, in heavy conditions, Nicky Henderson's charge made all and made it seem very easy. He didn't have to give it his all and Henderson will be pleased with the way he jumped. The worry now is, that he hasn't really had a challenge yet and as such he's still untested at the highest level. The six year old gelding has nevertheless shortened in the betting for the Arkle to be the clear second favourite behind Douvan.

But more impressive were the winners of the first and last race. Sharpasaknife was a debut winner in the opener for Malcolm Jefferson, staying on strongly to extend his lead in the closing stages. He looks a big, strong type and I've stuck him in my tracker to monitor his progress. In the last, Woolstone One shot off like a house on fire, racing very keenly to start off with, but Gavin Sheehan gave her a bit of a breather to settle down towards the home turn. Back in the home straight, the filly put her foot back down and raced away into the distance. It was her second win in as many races and you feel Harry Whittington has got a useful one there.

Over in Ireland, there was some excellent racing at Naas on Saturday and again at Leopardstown on Sunday. Lagostovegas caught the eye in the opener at Naas. See's been consistently hitting the frame (2231 reads his form now) and on each of those occasions, she's bumped into a good horse (the likes of Rashaan and Ivanovich Gorbatov). An appearance in one of the juvenile races, perhaps the Fred Winter or the mares novice, should be well within her scope.

Willie Mullins had a good hand again, with Sempre Medici winning fairly easily followed by Roi des Francs seeing off Pont Alexandre. The latter wasn't given a hard race on his second start since nearly a 1000 days off and was still pretty close at the finish. I would imagine we'll see both turn up at the festival and possibly both will line up in the four miler. One to keep an eye on for the future would be Woods Well, second in the closing bumper, but showed enough promise to suggest he'll improve for that run. Sunday was not as good a day for Mullins' pink brigade as he had three seconds, Our Duke overturning Pylonthepressure and Childrens List & Kalkir both came home second as well. But the performance of the afternoon was Killultagh Vic, who somehow managed to stay upright after a terrible landing at the last to come back and win the 3.30. He's one to note for the Festival as well, probably in the JLT, but he holds entries to the Arkle and the RSA as well.