Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase Preview
Red looks forward to the second of the Championship races of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival, the Champion Chase and gives his thoughts on the likely runners and their chances.
First of all, let's dispense with the preliminary's. IF Douvan (1/2 Black Type) gets there and stands up, he wins. Doing cartwheels. And you could make a pretty decent return on investment between 33 & 50% if you backed him for it. While as a horse racing fan, that makes no appeal, but as an investor it does. Sure, there's risks, he could pick up an injury, or fall at the last, but the risks are no more than any other invest 'for a 33% profit in a matter of days' strategy. As a investor, it seems like a decent risk/reward.
But let's focus on the race. The presence of Douvan will no doubt scare of a few runners
Altior (8/1 general) is second in the market, especially with those offering a non-runner no bet concession, but his trainer has already ruled him out of the race 'unless Douvan doesn't run'. He's more likely to renew his rivalry with Min in the Arkle.
Fox Norton (8/1 Betfair) was third behind Douvan in the Arkle and has since added a handicap win and the Grade Two Schloer Chase to his bedpost, doing so rather impressively. He's now rated within 2 lbs of Douvan and has the C&D form for this race, but I struggle to see him getting close to Douvan. In the without market, his price would be too restrictive for me at 5/2, so he's a no from me.
Next in is Un de Sceaux (14/1 Betair & Betway), second last year to Sprinter Sacre. He's got the C&D form as well, having won the Arkle in 2015 and placing last year behind the resurgent Sprinter, but you'd think his participation would be unlikely given the presence of his stablemate Douvan. I do believe two miles is his best trip, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Mullins team stepped him up to two mile five for the Ryanair. But with doubts over his participation, the 7 or 8/1 available on NRNB is not enough for me to be tempted.
There's a few more to rule out. Ar Mad (25/1 Betfair) has dodged the re-arranged Clarence House at Cheltenham with doubts over his ability to go left handed and now steps up in trip at Ascot for the Ascot Chase. Both of those points would make him an unlikely runner in this for me, although I think he's a very good horse. Equally, Vroum Vroum Mag (25/1 various) is very unlikely to run in this, even as a super-sub. Sizing John (33/1) was shortened dramatically for the Ryanair after his win in the Kinloch Brae and he wouldn't want to be chasing Douvan again.
That leaves me with two who I'd expect to go for the race and give a very good account of themselves. Special Tiara (25/1 various) has finished third in the last two runnings of this race and Henry De Bromhead's ten year old always improves for better ground. He wasn't at his best, but still managed to win the Desert Orchid last time out, narrowly edging out Sir Valentino. At 25/1 he seems a very fair price for an each way bet. Even if you take him on place only or without the favourite you should be able to get a decent price.
At the same price, God's Own (25/1 various) is another who will run his race. Fourth in the race last year and second behind Un de Sceaux in the Arkle the year before, he's got a decent form line over C&D. He finished off last season in stylish fashion, with a win in the Melling Chase followed by beating Vautour in the Punchestown Champion Chase. He's another who does better in the spring, but wasn't beaten far in the Tingle Creak by Un de Sceaux. His spring form over fences though is quite good (122F411, from March - May), compared to the autumn and winter months (24217332233, October - February). The only reservation is that he might step up to the Ryanair as they've been mixing his trip a fair bit this year, but 25s is a very fair price.
No Bet:
Douvan to win (1/3)
Suggested:
Special Tiara 25/1 E/W Various
God's Own 25/1 E/W Various
As always, if you have any feedback, suggestions or just want to laugh at my choices, @redgameracer on twitter is the place to be.
Red
Wednesday 25 January 2017
Tuesday 10 January 2017
Cheltenham Preview - Champion Hurdle
Stan James Champion Hurdle Preview
Red looks forward to the first of the Championship races of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival, the Champion Hurdle and gives his thoughts on the likely runners and their chances.
Amid the coming cold and snow of a January cold weather front, we at least have the prospect of Cheltenham to keep us warm. While some ante-post markets may be pretty clear already, there's plenty that are still muddles, none more so than the Champion Hurdle. And as always, it comes down to just one man, Willie Mullins.
The Closutton trainer has the first two in the market in Faugheen (11/4 Coral) and Annie Power (9/2 Betfair), but concerns over their well-being is making this a hard race to preview. Let's stick to what we know first. Neither of them has been seen on the racecourse this season and we know they won't face up against each other. That's pretty evident from all the talk from the connections. Also, if either of them turns up anywhere near fully fit, they'll win. That may not be a given, but you'd be hard pressed to see them beat if they got there sound. But that leaves us with a whole lot of unknowns.
First of all, which one of the two is the more likely to make it there? For me, it's Faugheen. The 2015 winner hasn't 'sparkled in his work at home' according to Paddy Mullins, but I feel he is the more likely of the two to get there. For two reasons. The first one is simple. Annie Power is a mare. She has doubtless potential as a broodmare once she retires and there has already been talk of that this season. The Ricci's won't want to risk her in this race unless she is 100% fully fighting fit and that probably means getting a run into her before the festival. And that seems more and more unlikely. Secondly, there's an much easier alternative race for her if they are desperate to run her at Cheltenham. The Mares race is still a Grade One and Mullins has a fabulous record in it, even with runners who go there first time out (Quevega says hi), and she would be miles ahead of anything else in the race. But is Faugheen at 11/4 a good price? That all depends on if you think he'll make it there. For me, he is the most likely to and therefore the most likely winner and you won't get anywhere near 11/4 if he is confirmed to go. If you're willing to take the chance, then 11/4 is a superb price.
But what if neither of them turns up. It is a real possibility and that throws the race wide open. No doubt Mullins will have something in reserve, the likes of Vroum Vroum Mag (25/1 PaddyPower) and Nichols Canyon (33/1 various) are obvious super subs and will be a lot shorter if the top two come out. But if they don't, then it's a waste of money, because neither will be likely to run if Faugheen or Annie makes it. Arctic Fire (33/1 various) may or may not make the race as he is another suffering with injury woes.
So let's look away from Mullins and see what catches the eye. The New One (25/1 various) showed much improvement under Dickie Johnson in winning the International Hurdle, but has never sparkled in the showpiece event and was beaten by Yanworth (5/1 various) at Kempton. Both would be suited by the more testing track at Cheltenham, but it's hard to see the former reverse the form. He is however an interesting proposition on the Exchanges where he is 66/1. With Nigel Twiston-Davies already confirming he'll target the race again, he should be shorter on the day and you'll be able to lay off your stake for a profit, especially if the top two come out.
Brain Power (14/1 888Sport) has been well punted since winning two handicaps and this race could well be of handicap standard by the time. But he was well beaten in the Greatwood and that would concern me if he was to line up here. Petit Mouchoir (8/1 various) is another who's been well backed after his victory at Leopardstown, beating Nichols Canyon by seven lengths and he would certainly enter calculations on the back off that. He didn't enjoy things last year in the Supreme though and festival form is one of those things I really like at Cheltenham.
So what am I going for then? I'll take Faugheen at 11/4 because I'm convinced he'll get there. I haven't got anything solid to back it up, but gut instinct. But I'll give you two who could hit the frame at a price. Haven't mentioned either of them yet, so hold on for the surprise.
First of all, My Tent or Yours (50/1 various). Ok, ok you can stop the laughter out the back, but 50s is waaay to big. The likely better ground at the festival will suit him to a tee and he's got decent festival form with three seconds over track and trip. Sure, he might be past it and that's why he's the price he is, but I genuinely believe there's something more to come from him. Perhaps relinquishing some of his headgear (as has been suggested by some) could allow him to run a bit more freely and eke out the inches needed to improve past some of his lesser priced rivals.
Secondly, a festival winner who hasn't seen much hurdles of late, but could run a big race if his trainer decides to go here with him. Wicklow Brave (33/1) is a classy horse, having won an Irish St Leger, but also a County Hurdle and it wouldn't be the greatest leap of imagination to see him line up here if the top two came out. He's a smooth traveller with C&D and festival form and he could be an surprise outsider.
Suggested:
Faugheen to win, 11/4 @ Coral
My Tent Or Yours 50/1 E/W various
Wicklow Brave 33/1 E/W various
As always, if you have feedback, suggestions or you just want to laugh at my ridiculous choices, @redgameracer on Twitter is the place.
Red
Red looks forward to the first of the Championship races of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival, the Champion Hurdle and gives his thoughts on the likely runners and their chances.
Amid the coming cold and snow of a January cold weather front, we at least have the prospect of Cheltenham to keep us warm. While some ante-post markets may be pretty clear already, there's plenty that are still muddles, none more so than the Champion Hurdle. And as always, it comes down to just one man, Willie Mullins.
The Closutton trainer has the first two in the market in Faugheen (11/4 Coral) and Annie Power (9/2 Betfair), but concerns over their well-being is making this a hard race to preview. Let's stick to what we know first. Neither of them has been seen on the racecourse this season and we know they won't face up against each other. That's pretty evident from all the talk from the connections. Also, if either of them turns up anywhere near fully fit, they'll win. That may not be a given, but you'd be hard pressed to see them beat if they got there sound. But that leaves us with a whole lot of unknowns.
First of all, which one of the two is the more likely to make it there? For me, it's Faugheen. The 2015 winner hasn't 'sparkled in his work at home' according to Paddy Mullins, but I feel he is the more likely of the two to get there. For two reasons. The first one is simple. Annie Power is a mare. She has doubtless potential as a broodmare once she retires and there has already been talk of that this season. The Ricci's won't want to risk her in this race unless she is 100% fully fighting fit and that probably means getting a run into her before the festival. And that seems more and more unlikely. Secondly, there's an much easier alternative race for her if they are desperate to run her at Cheltenham. The Mares race is still a Grade One and Mullins has a fabulous record in it, even with runners who go there first time out (Quevega says hi), and she would be miles ahead of anything else in the race. But is Faugheen at 11/4 a good price? That all depends on if you think he'll make it there. For me, he is the most likely to and therefore the most likely winner and you won't get anywhere near 11/4 if he is confirmed to go. If you're willing to take the chance, then 11/4 is a superb price.
But what if neither of them turns up. It is a real possibility and that throws the race wide open. No doubt Mullins will have something in reserve, the likes of Vroum Vroum Mag (25/1 PaddyPower) and Nichols Canyon (33/1 various) are obvious super subs and will be a lot shorter if the top two come out. But if they don't, then it's a waste of money, because neither will be likely to run if Faugheen or Annie makes it. Arctic Fire (33/1 various) may or may not make the race as he is another suffering with injury woes.
So let's look away from Mullins and see what catches the eye. The New One (25/1 various) showed much improvement under Dickie Johnson in winning the International Hurdle, but has never sparkled in the showpiece event and was beaten by Yanworth (5/1 various) at Kempton. Both would be suited by the more testing track at Cheltenham, but it's hard to see the former reverse the form. He is however an interesting proposition on the Exchanges where he is 66/1. With Nigel Twiston-Davies already confirming he'll target the race again, he should be shorter on the day and you'll be able to lay off your stake for a profit, especially if the top two come out.
Brain Power (14/1 888Sport) has been well punted since winning two handicaps and this race could well be of handicap standard by the time. But he was well beaten in the Greatwood and that would concern me if he was to line up here. Petit Mouchoir (8/1 various) is another who's been well backed after his victory at Leopardstown, beating Nichols Canyon by seven lengths and he would certainly enter calculations on the back off that. He didn't enjoy things last year in the Supreme though and festival form is one of those things I really like at Cheltenham.
So what am I going for then? I'll take Faugheen at 11/4 because I'm convinced he'll get there. I haven't got anything solid to back it up, but gut instinct. But I'll give you two who could hit the frame at a price. Haven't mentioned either of them yet, so hold on for the surprise.
First of all, My Tent or Yours (50/1 various). Ok, ok you can stop the laughter out the back, but 50s is waaay to big. The likely better ground at the festival will suit him to a tee and he's got decent festival form with three seconds over track and trip. Sure, he might be past it and that's why he's the price he is, but I genuinely believe there's something more to come from him. Perhaps relinquishing some of his headgear (as has been suggested by some) could allow him to run a bit more freely and eke out the inches needed to improve past some of his lesser priced rivals.
Secondly, a festival winner who hasn't seen much hurdles of late, but could run a big race if his trainer decides to go here with him. Wicklow Brave (33/1) is a classy horse, having won an Irish St Leger, but also a County Hurdle and it wouldn't be the greatest leap of imagination to see him line up here if the top two came out. He's a smooth traveller with C&D and festival form and he could be an surprise outsider.
Suggested:
Faugheen to win, 11/4 @ Coral
My Tent Or Yours 50/1 E/W various
Wicklow Brave 33/1 E/W various
As always, if you have feedback, suggestions or you just want to laugh at my ridiculous choices, @redgameracer on Twitter is the place.
Red
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