Morning all,
A poor effort yesterday and perhaps not enough time spent on the cards with having to do two. For that reason, I'll give the Irish card a miss today, although it doesn't look too bad and focus on the one at Bangor.
2.10 Irish Hawke (9/2) has gone up 9 lbs for his win over Our Three Sons here in August, but he stayed on well and looks to have more up his sleeve. With Bangor tending to be a tricky track, I think the C&D experience will come in handy for this son of Montjeu. He should appreciate the good ground and seems to be the pick of the Donald McCain pair on jockey bookings. McCain has a pretty decent record at this track and that's why I've picked Irish Hawke ahead of the likes of Tempuran (who has been running on the flat mainly) and last time out winners Bumble Bay and Domtaline
2.40 Aqalim (13/8) has been running in Graded staying hurdles for John Ferguson last season, competing with the likes of Thistlecrack. With Ferguson handing in his license, this one has been sold and sent to the in-form Tim Vaughan stable, who has booked the champion jockey to ride him here on chase debut. The pair have been going strongly of late and could well get another winner on board in this four runner affair. The main threat may well come from Charlie Longsdon's Atlantic Gold, with the trainer having a good record here and his charge made a decent enough chase debut last time out.
3.10 A very interesting handicap chase next. What Happens Now comes here chasing the four timer over fences and is respected, but this should be all about Johns Spirit (9/4). Rated as high as 160 at his peak, he now goes off a mark of 136 and should be capable to winning from that rating. He's still got enough ability and showed glimpses of that in his last two races and drops down to class three company for the first time since 2012 when he won a novice handicap chase at Sandown. He should have that little bit of extra class to make his presence felt around here.
3.45 A mares novices' hurdle next and this should be all about Whatsthatallabout (2/5). She comes here on the back of two wins and has to shoulder a double penalty, but the opposition isn't exactly awe-inspiring and she should be too good for them.
4.20 The colours of Supply And Demand (11/4) are perhaps more famous for their exploits on the flat, but Magnier, Tabor and Smith may get a winner here. Their horse has been off the track for nearly a year, but showed some signs when making it's debut as a four year old at Uttoxeter. If he's fit and ready to go, he should have enough to beat this lot.
4.55 A tricky handicap hurdle to finish off proceedings. Court King ran well to land a competitive hurdle over at Uttoxeter ten days ago, but has to shoulder a penalty for that success, which may well cost him. Similar remarks can be applied to Gabriel Oats, who has been raised 7 lbs for his latest Stratford win. Instead, I'm going to take a chance on Master Ally (8/1) for Rebecca Curtis. She has a great strike rate at this track over hurdles of 36% and the yard seems to have put last years trouble's behind it now. Jonathan Moore has ridden seven winners for her in this year, a strike rate just shy of 30% and his 3 lbs claim could well prove vital in this contest.
Wednesday 28 September 2016
Tuesday 27 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 27-09
Morning all,
A busy day for me, two jumps cards to go through at Sedgefield and Southwell. I've condensed the write ups a bit, but hopefully I can still get my reasoning across.
Sedgefield
2.00 Major Ivan (3/1) was the highest rated of these over hurdles and he gave subsequent Ultima Chase 7th Out Sam a decent race over fence before falling three out. The Jefferson yard is having a quiet spell, but this represents a chance to get going again
2.30 Our Reward (9/2) was a ten length winner here last time out, his second win in three races and has a good chance to follow up for Jamie Snowden, with Will Featherstone's seven lbs claim coming in handy.
3.05 The Grey Taylor (4/1) is one to look out for making his handicap debut over hurdles and he could take some stopping if allowed an easy lead. He should enjoy the good ground and run a big race despite having to carry top weight.
3.40 A close call between last years winner The Backup Plan and Mount Vesuvius (5/1). The latter has been showing up well over hurdles and should be on a decent mark back over fences. He has won on his only start here and has a chance to make it two from two.
4.15 Well, this is desperate. A token selection for Oh So Gigolo (5/1) as Kenneth Slack boasts a 40% strike rate at this course, while Henry Brooke riding for him has a 33% strike rate and a profit of 58 pounds
4.50 Virtually Ours (7/1) is well related to five winners including Attaglance and hopefully a return to form is on the cards for the yard.
Southwell
2.20 This can go the way of Larkhall (5/2), who was second last time out at Uttoxeter and a C&D winner this time last year.
2.55 This should be an excellent opportunity for Ben Haslam's Ever So Much (10/3). A two time winner over C&D who's shown some good form this summer, he's only two lbs higher than his last win here and should take the beating.
3.30 Doitforjoe (9/2) enjoyed his visit to Southwell last time winning by twelve lenghts and he seemed to have more in hand than the seven lbs he's been raised by the handicapper for that success.
4.05 A win for Doitforjoe would boost the form of Lady Robyn, who was second here last time out behind that one, but she'll need to have improved to beat Miss Mobot (evs) who was an easy winner last time out at Newton Abbot and is the one to beat on that showing.
4.40 Master Dancer (5/6) was an easy winner of a maiden hurdle last time out having notched two wins on the flat previous to that and should be able to follow up if retaining that form.
5.10 Annamult (11/2) was a good winner last time out at this venue, coming off a break, and she beat some useful types that day. She's only up four lbs for that and could go in again.
A busy day for me, two jumps cards to go through at Sedgefield and Southwell. I've condensed the write ups a bit, but hopefully I can still get my reasoning across.
Sedgefield
2.00 Major Ivan (3/1) was the highest rated of these over hurdles and he gave subsequent Ultima Chase 7th Out Sam a decent race over fence before falling three out. The Jefferson yard is having a quiet spell, but this represents a chance to get going again
2.30 Our Reward (9/2) was a ten length winner here last time out, his second win in three races and has a good chance to follow up for Jamie Snowden, with Will Featherstone's seven lbs claim coming in handy.
3.05 The Grey Taylor (4/1) is one to look out for making his handicap debut over hurdles and he could take some stopping if allowed an easy lead. He should enjoy the good ground and run a big race despite having to carry top weight.
3.40 A close call between last years winner The Backup Plan and Mount Vesuvius (5/1). The latter has been showing up well over hurdles and should be on a decent mark back over fences. He has won on his only start here and has a chance to make it two from two.
4.15 Well, this is desperate. A token selection for Oh So Gigolo (5/1) as Kenneth Slack boasts a 40% strike rate at this course, while Henry Brooke riding for him has a 33% strike rate and a profit of 58 pounds
4.50 Virtually Ours (7/1) is well related to five winners including Attaglance and hopefully a return to form is on the cards for the yard.
Southwell
2.20 This can go the way of Larkhall (5/2), who was second last time out at Uttoxeter and a C&D winner this time last year.
2.55 This should be an excellent opportunity for Ben Haslam's Ever So Much (10/3). A two time winner over C&D who's shown some good form this summer, he's only two lbs higher than his last win here and should take the beating.
3.30 Doitforjoe (9/2) enjoyed his visit to Southwell last time winning by twelve lenghts and he seemed to have more in hand than the seven lbs he's been raised by the handicapper for that success.
4.05 A win for Doitforjoe would boost the form of Lady Robyn, who was second here last time out behind that one, but she'll need to have improved to beat Miss Mobot (evs) who was an easy winner last time out at Newton Abbot and is the one to beat on that showing.
4.40 Master Dancer (5/6) was an easy winner of a maiden hurdle last time out having notched two wins on the flat previous to that and should be able to follow up if retaining that form.
5.10 Annamult (11/2) was a good winner last time out at this venue, coming off a break, and she beat some useful types that day. She's only up four lbs for that and could go in again.
Monday 26 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 26-09
Morning all,
Two decent priced winners on Saturday and it could've been even better if Cloonacool hadn't fallen when surging to the front, but c'est la vie. The only jumps card today comes from Newton Abbot where the going is said to be good-good to soft in places
2.00 We start off with a mares' novices' hurdle and a very short favourite for Colin Tizzard and Dickie Johnson. Ivor's Queen won over C&D in June on debut for Tizzard, but hasn't managed to oblige since, although the last time she came down when well ahead. She should be winning this on all known form, but since it's 5/1 bar her, there's some value to be had here. I'm going to take a chance on Jezzebelle (10/1) for Gary Moore. She was a close second on bumper debut in August, but couldn't follow that up next time out finishing well behind. She makes her hurdles debut today and the Moore yard has had some decent winners of late, both on the flat and over obstacles and hopefully she can give a good account
2.30 A three runner field, but it's in essence a match between Ballybolley and Marracudja (8/11). The latter makes his chase debut, but was rated a fair bit higher over hurdles than his opponent and he should be able to claim the spoils here, getting weight. Ballybolly can be very hit and miss over fences and I don't think he'll be able to beat Paul Nicholls' charge
3.00 Another three runner field and it seems to be another match bet between Nigel Twiston-Davies and Paul Nicholls. Again I have to go for the champion trainer with Rainy City (evs). He does well fresh, having won off after breaks before and racked up three wins from four races in the spring. That included beating John Monsah, a subsequent three-time winner, by fourteen lengths. Templeross has ran with credit for Twiston-Davies, but seems to save his best performances for winter ground and could well find this going too fast.
3.30 Next Sensation is the obvious first port of call here. A festival winner, he hasn't quite had everything going his way since then and has struggled to get back to form. He is now rated a long way lower than then though and if he's none the worse for his fall at Cartmel, he could be player. But it's hard for me to put my faith in a form line that reads 00F-P4F. Instead I'm going to chance Canicallyouback (4/1) for Evan Williams. A course and distance winner in July, he was third behind Owen Na View (also in this race) last time out, but should be able to reverse that form with the change in weights.
4.00 A competitive handicap hurdle next where it's 4/1 the field. Hattrick seeking Polo The Mumm will be favourite, but he has to contende with another 12 lbs rise in the weights for his latest success over C&D and that could stop him. Kentford Heiress has similar issues, looking for a four timer off another 7 lbs gain, so insted I'm going to chance one from down the bottom. Exemplary (18/1) may be the outsider of the field, but he didn't run a bad on his penultimate start. He was well beaten by the winner but another 11 lengths clear of the rest of the field in second. A bad blunder put paid to his chances on his next appearance, but if he can cut out the mistakes, there's no reason to think he couldn't have a say in proceedings.
4.30 A selling hurdle to finish off with and it's nothing to get excited about. Zero Visibility seems to save his best for over fences, while Taste the Wine isn't exactly prolific in his winning streaks. Instead I'm going to take a chance on the unexposed Moulin Rouge (7/1) making her debut for a new yard with a first time tongue tie. She was six lengths behind the winner in a handicap hurdle over at Southwell latest and a run to similar form could be enough to claim the spoils.
Two decent priced winners on Saturday and it could've been even better if Cloonacool hadn't fallen when surging to the front, but c'est la vie. The only jumps card today comes from Newton Abbot where the going is said to be good-good to soft in places
2.00 We start off with a mares' novices' hurdle and a very short favourite for Colin Tizzard and Dickie Johnson. Ivor's Queen won over C&D in June on debut for Tizzard, but hasn't managed to oblige since, although the last time she came down when well ahead. She should be winning this on all known form, but since it's 5/1 bar her, there's some value to be had here. I'm going to take a chance on Jezzebelle (10/1) for Gary Moore. She was a close second on bumper debut in August, but couldn't follow that up next time out finishing well behind. She makes her hurdles debut today and the Moore yard has had some decent winners of late, both on the flat and over obstacles and hopefully she can give a good account
2.30 A three runner field, but it's in essence a match between Ballybolley and Marracudja (8/11). The latter makes his chase debut, but was rated a fair bit higher over hurdles than his opponent and he should be able to claim the spoils here, getting weight. Ballybolly can be very hit and miss over fences and I don't think he'll be able to beat Paul Nicholls' charge
3.00 Another three runner field and it seems to be another match bet between Nigel Twiston-Davies and Paul Nicholls. Again I have to go for the champion trainer with Rainy City (evs). He does well fresh, having won off after breaks before and racked up three wins from four races in the spring. That included beating John Monsah, a subsequent three-time winner, by fourteen lengths. Templeross has ran with credit for Twiston-Davies, but seems to save his best performances for winter ground and could well find this going too fast.
3.30 Next Sensation is the obvious first port of call here. A festival winner, he hasn't quite had everything going his way since then and has struggled to get back to form. He is now rated a long way lower than then though and if he's none the worse for his fall at Cartmel, he could be player. But it's hard for me to put my faith in a form line that reads 00F-P4F. Instead I'm going to chance Canicallyouback (4/1) for Evan Williams. A course and distance winner in July, he was third behind Owen Na View (also in this race) last time out, but should be able to reverse that form with the change in weights.
4.00 A competitive handicap hurdle next where it's 4/1 the field. Hattrick seeking Polo The Mumm will be favourite, but he has to contende with another 12 lbs rise in the weights for his latest success over C&D and that could stop him. Kentford Heiress has similar issues, looking for a four timer off another 7 lbs gain, so insted I'm going to chance one from down the bottom. Exemplary (18/1) may be the outsider of the field, but he didn't run a bad on his penultimate start. He was well beaten by the winner but another 11 lengths clear of the rest of the field in second. A bad blunder put paid to his chances on his next appearance, but if he can cut out the mistakes, there's no reason to think he couldn't have a say in proceedings.
4.30 A selling hurdle to finish off with and it's nothing to get excited about. Zero Visibility seems to save his best for over fences, while Taste the Wine isn't exactly prolific in his winning streaks. Instead I'm going to take a chance on the unexposed Moulin Rouge (7/1) making her debut for a new yard with a first time tongue tie. She was six lengths behind the winner in a handicap hurdle over at Southwell latest and a run to similar form could be enough to claim the spoils.
Saturday 24 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 24-09
Morning all,
Three winners and a third from yesterday's write-up, but no time to rest on our laurels as we head to Market Rasen today for a good looking card.
2.00 We start off with a juvenile hurdle and it looks a pretty decent one. Hygrove Percy arrives on the back off a win, but has to shoulder a double penalty, which might complicate matters for him. Cliffs of Dover was good on debut for Paul Nicholls, but I'm going to go for Nachi Falls (4/1). Nigel Hawke's charge is looking for the hattrick and had subsequent winner Milrow ten lenghts behind in third when winning last time. He has also beaten Invocation who re-opposes in his previous win. Of the newcomers Visage Blanc could run a good race, having shown some decent form on the flat for Mick Channon
2.35 Next is a handicap hurdle and Red Tornado arrives in tremendous form having won five on the bounce, but that means he has to shoulder top weight. Wisty bolted up by seventeen lengths last time out and has to be considered, while Mr Kit Kat and Sir Toby also shouldn't be far away. But my pick in the race is Cloonacool (6/1). He won this race last year having been off for a similar period, so does go well fresh. He's been running over fences lately, so this could just be a warm up run for bigger and better things. He's only three lbs higher than last year and I like the booking of Josh Moore.
3.10 A handicap chase next and it's another competitive field. Fox Appeal comes here fresh and usually comes on for the run and hasn't won in a while. Father Edward has a 13 lbs rise in the weights to contend with and that could be too much for David Pipe's last time out winner. Instead I'm going to chance that Vintage Vinnie (11/2) is going to build on his impressive hurdles win last time out and find his way back over fences. If he does still have that ability, he's on a very handy mark and could well make mincemeat of this field.
3.45 A tricky chase next with not that much between the field on form, so I'm going to chance one. Vexillium (8/1) will enjoy the conditions and although he's not without risks, he did win two handicap hurdles this time last year. He won over fences in May before losing his way a bit and was going well when a mistake ended his chances of victory last time out. If he's ironed out the mistakes then he could improve and go close.
4.20 Mares' novice hurdle next and I like Jelly Monger (11/4). She kept on well to win at Fontwell and jumped very well that day to claim the spoils. Late Night Lily is the one to keep an eye on, having been brought down early last time out. But I think the selection has the race fitness edge to see her home.
4.55 A handicap hurdle next up and plenty of C&D form, but the one I like here is one that hasn't been to Market Rasen before. Deserter (2/1) was a seven length winner over Ablazing at Fontwell in August and that one has won again since. He's gone up eight lbs for that win, but he doesn't look finished winning yet and Warren Greatex could well have another decent horse on his hands.
5.30 A bumper to finish proceedings and my eye is immediately drawn to Captain Sam (7/2) for Malcolm Jefferson and Brian Hughes. I am a bit of a fan boy, but he does have a good record in bumpers and his charge was only just denied a win last year, despite running pretty green on the run in. It's a bit of a concern that we haven't seen him since, but he remains with potential. Loud and Clear was a winner last time out, but he has to shoulder a penalty for that and that could prove the difference in a competitive race.
Three winners and a third from yesterday's write-up, but no time to rest on our laurels as we head to Market Rasen today for a good looking card.
2.00 We start off with a juvenile hurdle and it looks a pretty decent one. Hygrove Percy arrives on the back off a win, but has to shoulder a double penalty, which might complicate matters for him. Cliffs of Dover was good on debut for Paul Nicholls, but I'm going to go for Nachi Falls (4/1). Nigel Hawke's charge is looking for the hattrick and had subsequent winner Milrow ten lenghts behind in third when winning last time. He has also beaten Invocation who re-opposes in his previous win. Of the newcomers Visage Blanc could run a good race, having shown some decent form on the flat for Mick Channon
2.35 Next is a handicap hurdle and Red Tornado arrives in tremendous form having won five on the bounce, but that means he has to shoulder top weight. Wisty bolted up by seventeen lengths last time out and has to be considered, while Mr Kit Kat and Sir Toby also shouldn't be far away. But my pick in the race is Cloonacool (6/1). He won this race last year having been off for a similar period, so does go well fresh. He's been running over fences lately, so this could just be a warm up run for bigger and better things. He's only three lbs higher than last year and I like the booking of Josh Moore.
3.10 A handicap chase next and it's another competitive field. Fox Appeal comes here fresh and usually comes on for the run and hasn't won in a while. Father Edward has a 13 lbs rise in the weights to contend with and that could be too much for David Pipe's last time out winner. Instead I'm going to chance that Vintage Vinnie (11/2) is going to build on his impressive hurdles win last time out and find his way back over fences. If he does still have that ability, he's on a very handy mark and could well make mincemeat of this field.
3.45 A tricky chase next with not that much between the field on form, so I'm going to chance one. Vexillium (8/1) will enjoy the conditions and although he's not without risks, he did win two handicap hurdles this time last year. He won over fences in May before losing his way a bit and was going well when a mistake ended his chances of victory last time out. If he's ironed out the mistakes then he could improve and go close.
4.20 Mares' novice hurdle next and I like Jelly Monger (11/4). She kept on well to win at Fontwell and jumped very well that day to claim the spoils. Late Night Lily is the one to keep an eye on, having been brought down early last time out. But I think the selection has the race fitness edge to see her home.
4.55 A handicap hurdle next up and plenty of C&D form, but the one I like here is one that hasn't been to Market Rasen before. Deserter (2/1) was a seven length winner over Ablazing at Fontwell in August and that one has won again since. He's gone up eight lbs for that win, but he doesn't look finished winning yet and Warren Greatex could well have another decent horse on his hands.
5.30 A bumper to finish proceedings and my eye is immediately drawn to Captain Sam (7/2) for Malcolm Jefferson and Brian Hughes. I am a bit of a fan boy, but he does have a good record in bumpers and his charge was only just denied a win last year, despite running pretty green on the run in. It's a bit of a concern that we haven't seen him since, but he remains with potential. Loud and Clear was a winner last time out, but he has to shoulder a penalty for that and that could prove the difference in a competitive race.
Friday 23 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 23-09
Morning all,
Two winners yesterday at Perth and a race to really whet the appetite for the National Hunt season as Moon Racer and Ballyandy fought out a cracker of a race, with David Pipe's charge narrowly edging the verdict. If that race is a sign of things to come, we're in for a great season.
Today's selections come from Worcester. There's a National Hunt card at Downpatrick as well, but I've given that a miss.
2.20 It's hard to get away from Southfield Vic (5/6) here. He has to give 6 lbs to his rivals, but he was an easy winner in a novices chase over C&D in May. He didn't seem to take to fences last winter, reverting back to hurdles, but the fact that he is back over fences now suggests that Nicholls feels this son of Old Vic has got more to offer in that sphere. Minella Daddy would be the pick to follow him home on debut over fences.
2.55 A two mile handicap chase next and Boss In Boots should go well for the in form Tim Vaughan under the champion jockey. Equally, Modeligo showed some good form in the spring, winning back to back here and at Warwick. He looked in need of the run at Stratford last time out and could shape better this time. But the selection for this race is Dealing River (7/2). Caroline Bailey's has won three times over C&D, but didn't fire last time over hurdles, just five days after winning a chase here. He beat Highbury High by ten lengths on that occasion and that one was a good winner at Warwick earlier in the week. A similar performance here should see him take the spoils.
3.30 A competitive race next with Gowanauthat looking for a sixth successive victory over fences. But there's plenty with a chance in here and he's up another seven lbs since winning at Stratford. Wings of Smoke is generally unreliable, but lines up for the in-form Tim Vaughan, while Mont Royale shaped well on return last time out, finishing third, and is on a handy mark. But my pick would be Degooch (7/1), who won well at Sedgefield last time out and is getting his jumping together. He also won at Uttoxeter over this trip earlier and should be on the premises again.
4.05 A selling hurdle which doesn't look like a great race, so a token selection for Trapper Peak (11/4). He was second behind Gentleman Moore last time out, but is much better off at the weights this time around and should reverse the form.
4.40 Novice hurdling next and the one catching the eye straight away is Canton Prince (9/4). He's two from two this season and I've already mentioned Tim Vaughan's form. He does have to cope with a step up in trip, but he stayed on well last time out, so three extra furlongs shouldn't give him too much concern. Race fitness could very well give him the edge over Newsworthy who has moved yards from Nicky Henderson after winning on his last start.
5.15 Another handicap hurdle and it looks like Days of Heaven may well have this as a pipe opener for the season having won over fences last time out. Miss Crick has been in great form winning three from four, but preference is given to Dovils Date (9/2). He followed up a ten length win at Southwell with a nine length win at Uttoxeter despite a penalty and he could again run another big race despite a raise in the weights.
5.50 In the lucky last, I'm going to take a chance on Le Bacardy (20/1). He's lost his way a bit running over fences and isn't the most straightforward, but he could well take advantage of a much lower hurdles mark to give a good showing. Jinsha Lake could go well if it's a strongly run race, having won over a similar trip at Towcester where it pays to have extra stamina.
Two winners yesterday at Perth and a race to really whet the appetite for the National Hunt season as Moon Racer and Ballyandy fought out a cracker of a race, with David Pipe's charge narrowly edging the verdict. If that race is a sign of things to come, we're in for a great season.
Today's selections come from Worcester. There's a National Hunt card at Downpatrick as well, but I've given that a miss.
2.20 It's hard to get away from Southfield Vic (5/6) here. He has to give 6 lbs to his rivals, but he was an easy winner in a novices chase over C&D in May. He didn't seem to take to fences last winter, reverting back to hurdles, but the fact that he is back over fences now suggests that Nicholls feels this son of Old Vic has got more to offer in that sphere. Minella Daddy would be the pick to follow him home on debut over fences.
2.55 A two mile handicap chase next and Boss In Boots should go well for the in form Tim Vaughan under the champion jockey. Equally, Modeligo showed some good form in the spring, winning back to back here and at Warwick. He looked in need of the run at Stratford last time out and could shape better this time. But the selection for this race is Dealing River (7/2). Caroline Bailey's has won three times over C&D, but didn't fire last time over hurdles, just five days after winning a chase here. He beat Highbury High by ten lengths on that occasion and that one was a good winner at Warwick earlier in the week. A similar performance here should see him take the spoils.
3.30 A competitive race next with Gowanauthat looking for a sixth successive victory over fences. But there's plenty with a chance in here and he's up another seven lbs since winning at Stratford. Wings of Smoke is generally unreliable, but lines up for the in-form Tim Vaughan, while Mont Royale shaped well on return last time out, finishing third, and is on a handy mark. But my pick would be Degooch (7/1), who won well at Sedgefield last time out and is getting his jumping together. He also won at Uttoxeter over this trip earlier and should be on the premises again.
4.05 A selling hurdle which doesn't look like a great race, so a token selection for Trapper Peak (11/4). He was second behind Gentleman Moore last time out, but is much better off at the weights this time around and should reverse the form.
4.40 Novice hurdling next and the one catching the eye straight away is Canton Prince (9/4). He's two from two this season and I've already mentioned Tim Vaughan's form. He does have to cope with a step up in trip, but he stayed on well last time out, so three extra furlongs shouldn't give him too much concern. Race fitness could very well give him the edge over Newsworthy who has moved yards from Nicky Henderson after winning on his last start.
5.15 Another handicap hurdle and it looks like Days of Heaven may well have this as a pipe opener for the season having won over fences last time out. Miss Crick has been in great form winning three from four, but preference is given to Dovils Date (9/2). He followed up a ten length win at Southwell with a nine length win at Uttoxeter despite a penalty and he could again run another big race despite a raise in the weights.
5.50 In the lucky last, I'm going to take a chance on Le Bacardy (20/1). He's lost his way a bit running over fences and isn't the most straightforward, but he could well take advantage of a much lower hurdles mark to give a good showing. Jinsha Lake could go well if it's a strongly run race, having won over a similar trip at Towcester where it pays to have extra stamina.
Thursday 22 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 22-09
Morning all,
Day two of the meeting at Perth and I've gone through the card again for you. Hopefully today goes better than yesterday!
2.10 A fairly tricky opener, with some of these running yesterday, so keep an eye on the non-runners. But I think there's two to focus on here, Moonday Sun (9/4) for Nigel Twiston-Davies and Jet Master for Nick Alexander. The latter reverts back to hurdles after running over fences in June and giving a reasonable account of seventeen lbs higher. He wasn't at his best here at Perth when last seen over hurdles, but is a two-time C&D winner, so doesn't do badly here. The selection however has been in imperious form this season with an impressive win over Three Colours Red at Bangor before following up on handicap debut at Worcester. He looks like he's still got more improving to do and Twiston-Davies likes to target this meeting, so Moonday Sun gets the vote
2.45 Another race that has a few chances in there, but What's Up Woody (9/2) won easily here two weeks ago and races off the same mark. He'll enjoy the conditions and although he steps back in trip, he should have enough speed to cope with that. Bright Prospect has to contend with a twelve lbs rise in the weights, while Foxtail Hill hasn't been seen for a long while and needs to have sorted out his jumping to be challenging.
3.20 The big one. This race has been billed for a while as the return of the national hunt season and hopefully Ballyandy and Moon Racer can live up to the expectation. Both former champion bumper winners make their hurdles debut today. A lot will depend on how the race is run, with Ballyandy looking like he wants further than two miles and in theory Moon Racer should do him for speed. But if Nigel Twiston-Davies' charge turns it into a battle of stamina, then it wouldn't surprise me to see the Pipe horse back out tamely. Either way, this race will be a watching brief for me. Just sit back and enjoy two exciting prospects.
3.50 A difficult race with a number of these having run here yesterday, so expect some to be declared non-runners. I'm going to take a punt on Fred Le Macon (8/1). A winner on Friday at Hexham in a conditions race, his mark is unchanged and he should enjoy the step up in trip, having stayed on well. C&D winners Green Zone and Buckled should also go well.
4.25 Another Twiston-Davies v Pipe as Flying Angel (11/10) takes on Impulsive American. The latter has been in tremendous form in both codes, while the former is an Imperial Cup winner and Martin Pipe runner-up. But they're not the only ones to focus on in a competitive race. Gordon Elliot's two, Western Home and Tempo Mac should give a bold showing (although the former ran yesterday and fell, so could give this a miss) while Nigel Hawke as brought Rejaah a long way for this. She gets plenty of weight, but has a difficult task on her hand and I fancy that Flying Angel could be too good for all of them. Twiston-Davies has won this five times since 2006 and could notch another today.
5.00 Not the strongest of races and you'd imagine this will be be between What A Moment (11/4) and Ballymalin. The former yet has to prove himself at this trip, but he does seem a talented type, who has ran well in better races than this. He'll have to account for Ballymalin though, who has won over this far in a point to point and makes his hurdles debut. Round Tower looks up against it, having to give away weight all round.
5.30 Finally, we finish with a bumper and there's a few types in here, who we'll hear more of this season. It's a competitive field, but Fergal O'Brien often gets one ready for this sort of race and it would be no surprise to see him claim more spoils with Athy River (8/1).
Day two of the meeting at Perth and I've gone through the card again for you. Hopefully today goes better than yesterday!
2.10 A fairly tricky opener, with some of these running yesterday, so keep an eye on the non-runners. But I think there's two to focus on here, Moonday Sun (9/4) for Nigel Twiston-Davies and Jet Master for Nick Alexander. The latter reverts back to hurdles after running over fences in June and giving a reasonable account of seventeen lbs higher. He wasn't at his best here at Perth when last seen over hurdles, but is a two-time C&D winner, so doesn't do badly here. The selection however has been in imperious form this season with an impressive win over Three Colours Red at Bangor before following up on handicap debut at Worcester. He looks like he's still got more improving to do and Twiston-Davies likes to target this meeting, so Moonday Sun gets the vote
2.45 Another race that has a few chances in there, but What's Up Woody (9/2) won easily here two weeks ago and races off the same mark. He'll enjoy the conditions and although he steps back in trip, he should have enough speed to cope with that. Bright Prospect has to contend with a twelve lbs rise in the weights, while Foxtail Hill hasn't been seen for a long while and needs to have sorted out his jumping to be challenging.
3.20 The big one. This race has been billed for a while as the return of the national hunt season and hopefully Ballyandy and Moon Racer can live up to the expectation. Both former champion bumper winners make their hurdles debut today. A lot will depend on how the race is run, with Ballyandy looking like he wants further than two miles and in theory Moon Racer should do him for speed. But if Nigel Twiston-Davies' charge turns it into a battle of stamina, then it wouldn't surprise me to see the Pipe horse back out tamely. Either way, this race will be a watching brief for me. Just sit back and enjoy two exciting prospects.
3.50 A difficult race with a number of these having run here yesterday, so expect some to be declared non-runners. I'm going to take a punt on Fred Le Macon (8/1). A winner on Friday at Hexham in a conditions race, his mark is unchanged and he should enjoy the step up in trip, having stayed on well. C&D winners Green Zone and Buckled should also go well.
4.25 Another Twiston-Davies v Pipe as Flying Angel (11/10) takes on Impulsive American. The latter has been in tremendous form in both codes, while the former is an Imperial Cup winner and Martin Pipe runner-up. But they're not the only ones to focus on in a competitive race. Gordon Elliot's two, Western Home and Tempo Mac should give a bold showing (although the former ran yesterday and fell, so could give this a miss) while Nigel Hawke as brought Rejaah a long way for this. She gets plenty of weight, but has a difficult task on her hand and I fancy that Flying Angel could be too good for all of them. Twiston-Davies has won this five times since 2006 and could notch another today.
5.00 Not the strongest of races and you'd imagine this will be be between What A Moment (11/4) and Ballymalin. The former yet has to prove himself at this trip, but he does seem a talented type, who has ran well in better races than this. He'll have to account for Ballymalin though, who has won over this far in a point to point and makes his hurdles debut. Round Tower looks up against it, having to give away weight all round.
5.30 Finally, we finish with a bumper and there's a few types in here, who we'll hear more of this season. It's a competitive field, but Fergal O'Brien often gets one ready for this sort of race and it would be no surprise to see him claim more spoils with Athy River (8/1).
Wednesday 21 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 21-09
Morning all,
Another good looking jumps card comes from Perth today and I've gone through the card below.
2.20 A tricky race to open up with, only five runners, but all of them have a reasonable chance. Our Cat has been in good form over the summer and boasts race fitness, as does Lily Yeats, who has to give weight away all around. But I was quite taken by Only Orvieto (7/2) on bumper debut at Sedgefield. She kept on well under Jamie Hamilton to win by four lengths that day, with the third another 39 lengths behind. Obviously it's a new discipline for her here, going hurdling for the first time, but she's in capable hands with Brian Hughes doing the steering. If she's fit and ready to go first time out, she could well take the beating.
2.55 I said yesterday it could be a good day for Fergal O'Brien and I think Crown Hill (6/1) has what it takes to be a decent chaser. He showed improvement last time out with a first time hood fitted and if the head gear has the same effect now chasing for the first time, he could get the better of the Nigel Twiston-Davies pair and Orchard Road for Gordon Elliot.
3.30 Probably the worst race on the card is the claiming hurdle and the best form on offer is probable No Win No Fee (13/8), who beat Tahira (a winner yesterday) in a novice hurdle at Stratford back in July and although his form has been indifferent since, he should be the one to beat here.
4.05 A good handicap chase next and you could make cases for a fair few of these. Kilronan High looks well handicapped on her best form, while Western Home won a chase at Cartmel before having two runs over hurdles. There's also three C&D winners in the field in By The Boardwalk (last year's winner), Kilbree Kid for Tom George and Tangolan (5/1) for Fergal O'Brien. The latter would be my selection. He scored a good win here in June, before returning a narrow second over shorter two weeks ago. His jumping wasn't at his best that time and if he's sharpened up from that, he should run a big race.
4.40 A very interesting race. Gold Chain comes here two lbs out of the handicap and has stamina to prove despite going well in a hood and is discounted. Frontier Vic has two wins at Perth, including one over this distance and he won at Ffos Las in June. He's been raised another seven lbs for that and that could stop him. Instead I'm going to take a chance on Sun Cloud (13/2). A very useful staying chaser, he usually takes in this race before going back to chasing and it could only be a pipe opener for him. That said, he races off 11 lbs lower than when he was third last year and has been given a genuine chance by the handicapper. That could well be enough for Malcolm Jefferson's charge to make hay and I'd expect him to hit the frame at least.
5.15 A juvenile hurdle and therefore difficult to assess, but Nigel Hawke makes a very long journey from down South to run Atlantic King (10/1). He also has one in the last, but it's telling that he would take a young horse so far when there's decent opportunities down South to run this gelding. Tom Scudamore is booked for the ride and at the prices I'm happy to chance him.
5.45 Finally, in the last, I'm going to side with Shaiyzar (9/1). He caught the eye running here last time out, two weeks ago, finishing third behind the re-opposing Mollies Gent. He wasn't beaten far that time and is better off at the weights this time around. Henry Brooke is a very useful jockey and if his charge is in a similar mood, he could again go close.
Another good looking jumps card comes from Perth today and I've gone through the card below.
2.20 A tricky race to open up with, only five runners, but all of them have a reasonable chance. Our Cat has been in good form over the summer and boasts race fitness, as does Lily Yeats, who has to give weight away all around. But I was quite taken by Only Orvieto (7/2) on bumper debut at Sedgefield. She kept on well under Jamie Hamilton to win by four lengths that day, with the third another 39 lengths behind. Obviously it's a new discipline for her here, going hurdling for the first time, but she's in capable hands with Brian Hughes doing the steering. If she's fit and ready to go first time out, she could well take the beating.
2.55 I said yesterday it could be a good day for Fergal O'Brien and I think Crown Hill (6/1) has what it takes to be a decent chaser. He showed improvement last time out with a first time hood fitted and if the head gear has the same effect now chasing for the first time, he could get the better of the Nigel Twiston-Davies pair and Orchard Road for Gordon Elliot.
3.30 Probably the worst race on the card is the claiming hurdle and the best form on offer is probable No Win No Fee (13/8), who beat Tahira (a winner yesterday) in a novice hurdle at Stratford back in July and although his form has been indifferent since, he should be the one to beat here.
4.05 A good handicap chase next and you could make cases for a fair few of these. Kilronan High looks well handicapped on her best form, while Western Home won a chase at Cartmel before having two runs over hurdles. There's also three C&D winners in the field in By The Boardwalk (last year's winner), Kilbree Kid for Tom George and Tangolan (5/1) for Fergal O'Brien. The latter would be my selection. He scored a good win here in June, before returning a narrow second over shorter two weeks ago. His jumping wasn't at his best that time and if he's sharpened up from that, he should run a big race.
4.40 A very interesting race. Gold Chain comes here two lbs out of the handicap and has stamina to prove despite going well in a hood and is discounted. Frontier Vic has two wins at Perth, including one over this distance and he won at Ffos Las in June. He's been raised another seven lbs for that and that could stop him. Instead I'm going to take a chance on Sun Cloud (13/2). A very useful staying chaser, he usually takes in this race before going back to chasing and it could only be a pipe opener for him. That said, he races off 11 lbs lower than when he was third last year and has been given a genuine chance by the handicapper. That could well be enough for Malcolm Jefferson's charge to make hay and I'd expect him to hit the frame at least.
5.15 A juvenile hurdle and therefore difficult to assess, but Nigel Hawke makes a very long journey from down South to run Atlantic King (10/1). He also has one in the last, but it's telling that he would take a young horse so far when there's decent opportunities down South to run this gelding. Tom Scudamore is booked for the ride and at the prices I'm happy to chance him.
5.45 Finally, in the last, I'm going to side with Shaiyzar (9/1). He caught the eye running here last time out, two weeks ago, finishing third behind the re-opposing Mollies Gent. He wasn't beaten far that time and is better off at the weights this time around. Henry Brooke is a very useful jockey and if his charge is in a similar mood, he could again go close.
Tuesday 20 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 20-09
Just a quick run through the Warwick card today:
2.20 Bleu and Noir has to shoulder top weight, but was well fancied on Sunday when declared a NR. Jockey claims 10, which will help with the weight and hopefully he's not too inexperienced to get this one home.
2.50 Highbury High was a hurdles winner back in May at Wincanton and he's been second on his last two outings over fences. Steps back up in trip, but he has won over this trip at Market Rasen in March 14 and that was off 8 lbs higher. Should go well.
3.25 In a tricky, but fairly average race, I've gone for Presence Felt. The ride of Richard Johnson, he's shown some decent form with placed efforts over this trip over his last two starts. He should be able to last out the trip unlike some of these.
3.55 No Ceiling had a subsequent winner behind in a handicap hurdle at Southwell when winning by 8 lengths before keeping on well to claim a novice chase over at Sedgefield. He should still have more to offer despite a 9 lbs gain in the weights and is chosen to complete the hattrick.
4.30 Pair of Jacks disappointed in a tough race at Cartmel last time out, a couple of mistakes putting paid to his chances there, but he is dropped back down into class 3 company where he won the start before. Malcolm Jefferson's charge has got top weight to contend with, but will enjoy conditions and should give a good account.
5.00 Not the strongest of races, but Troubled Soul is an interesting one on debut for Fergal O'Brien. Having shown some decent form in Ireland, the horse now makes its stable debut under Paddy Brennan in a first time hood.
2.20 Bleu and Noir has to shoulder top weight, but was well fancied on Sunday when declared a NR. Jockey claims 10, which will help with the weight and hopefully he's not too inexperienced to get this one home.
3.25 In a tricky, but fairly average race, I've gone for Presence Felt. The ride of Richard Johnson, he's shown some decent form with placed efforts over this trip over his last two starts. He should be able to last out the trip unlike some of these.
3.55 No Ceiling had a subsequent winner behind in a handicap hurdle at Southwell when winning by 8 lengths before keeping on well to claim a novice chase over at Sedgefield. He should still have more to offer despite a 9 lbs gain in the weights and is chosen to complete the hattrick.
4.30 Pair of Jacks disappointed in a tough race at Cartmel last time out, a couple of mistakes putting paid to his chances there, but he is dropped back down into class 3 company where he won the start before. Malcolm Jefferson's charge has got top weight to contend with, but will enjoy conditions and should give a good account.
5.00 Not the strongest of races, but Troubled Soul is an interesting one on debut for Fergal O'Brien. Having shown some decent form in Ireland, the horse now makes its stable debut under Paddy Brennan in a first time hood.
Sunday 18 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 18-09
Morning all,
A great start yesterday, with both Aspen Colorado and NAP Penhill bringing home the honours despite drifting in the market. But it was all downhill from there, even though Katie Do returned from a long absence to grab a place. Next Best Not For You could only manage second and highly fancied Tocororo was a non-runner. Things didn't get any better at Ayr with all three selections well beaten.
Today we have two jumps meetings, at Uttoxeter and Plumpton. We start at the latter venue with the NAP in the 3.00. Shady Glen has been in top form since returning this season. He started with a failure to complete at Market Rasen over hurdles, but hasn't looked back since returning to chasing. He's grabbed wins at Startford and Worcester as well as seconds at both venues. He was only half a length of winner Pawn Star last time out, but his 14 length win at Stratford is the key piece of form. He had several subsequent winners behind that day and it's the best piece of form in the race. If he can run to a similar level here under Kielan Woods, he has a great chance.
Next we go to Uttoxeter, where Ben Cee Pee M runs 20 minutes earlier. He's placed in his last two starts and it's another race that isn't the strongest. The only runner in behind last time has won since, so it reads as decent form. Brian Ellison and Henry Brooke are both in decent nick and I'm hoping for a bold showing.
Finally, we take in the 4.10, which looks a pretty good race on paper. Surf and Turf improved on his previous efforts by finishing third at Stratford last time out for his new yard. He's been running primarily over two miles for Kevin Frost, although he did win over two mile four at Southwell back in 2014. Back at that distance again, he is now ten lbs below his last winning mark and if he can carry on from his Stratford efforts. Perhaps a crucial pointer is that his best efforts come going left-handed, with seven wins and six seconds coming left-handed, as opposed one win and two seconds going right handed. At 8/1 it seems a decent punt to me.
A great start yesterday, with both Aspen Colorado and NAP Penhill bringing home the honours despite drifting in the market. But it was all downhill from there, even though Katie Do returned from a long absence to grab a place. Next Best Not For You could only manage second and highly fancied Tocororo was a non-runner. Things didn't get any better at Ayr with all three selections well beaten.
Today we have two jumps meetings, at Uttoxeter and Plumpton. We start at the latter venue with the NAP in the 3.00. Shady Glen has been in top form since returning this season. He started with a failure to complete at Market Rasen over hurdles, but hasn't looked back since returning to chasing. He's grabbed wins at Startford and Worcester as well as seconds at both venues. He was only half a length of winner Pawn Star last time out, but his 14 length win at Stratford is the key piece of form. He had several subsequent winners behind that day and it's the best piece of form in the race. If he can run to a similar level here under Kielan Woods, he has a great chance.
Next we go to Uttoxeter, where Ben Cee Pee M runs 20 minutes earlier. He's placed in his last two starts and it's another race that isn't the strongest. The only runner in behind last time has won since, so it reads as decent form. Brian Ellison and Henry Brooke are both in decent nick and I'm hoping for a bold showing.
Finally, we take in the 4.10, which looks a pretty good race on paper. Surf and Turf improved on his previous efforts by finishing third at Stratford last time out for his new yard. He's been running primarily over two miles for Kevin Frost, although he did win over two mile four at Southwell back in 2014. Back at that distance again, he is now ten lbs below his last winning mark and if he can carry on from his Stratford efforts. Perhaps a crucial pointer is that his best efforts come going left-handed, with seven wins and six seconds coming left-handed, as opposed one win and two seconds going right handed. At 8/1 it seems a decent punt to me.
Uttoxetter
1.40 Burrows Lane 2/1
2.10 Flemensbay 28/1
2.40 Ben Cee Pee M 11/4 NB
3.10 Gingili 10/1
3.40 Bold Henmie 7/1
4.10 Surf And Turf 8/1 3B
4.40 Cruise In Style 10/1
5.10 Maizy Missile 11/2
Plumpton
2.00 Blue Et Noir 15/8
2.30 My Brother Sylvest 5/1
3.00 Shady Glen 11/4 NAP
3.30 East Indies 9/4
4.00 Knight Bachelor 6/4
4.30 Lakeshore Lady 9/2
5.00 Zarliman 12/1
Yesterday's Results
Listowel
1.50 Aspen Colorado 8/15 - Won @ 6/4
2.20 Penhill 7/4 NAP - Won - 2/1
2.55 Diamond Dame 6/1 - 9th
3.30 Buster Dan Dan 11/1 - 9th
4.05 Katie Do 8/1 - 2nd
4.40 Not For You 2/1 NB - 2nd
5.10 Tocororo 8/11 - NR
5.45 The Winkler 13/2 -6th
Ayr
2.35 Shipyard 16/1 - 16th
3.45 Orion's Bow 14/1 - 15th
Aeolus 20/1 - 9th
Selections are 2 points win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
Listowel
1.50 Aspen Colorado 8/15 - Won @ 6/4
2.20 Penhill 7/4 NAP - Won - 2/1
2.55 Diamond Dame 6/1 - 9th
3.30 Buster Dan Dan 11/1 - 9th
4.05 Katie Do 8/1 - 2nd
4.40 Not For You 2/1 NB - 2nd
5.10 Tocororo 8/11 - NR
5.45 The Winkler 13/2 -6th
Ayr
2.35 Shipyard 16/1 - 16th
3.45 Orion's Bow 14/1 - 15th
Aeolus 20/1 - 9th
Points Staked: 22
Points Returned: 18
Profit: -4.00
Running Total: -20.00 (since 30th August)
Points Returned: 18
Profit: -4.00
Running Total: -20.00 (since 30th August)
Selections are 2 points win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
Saturday 17 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 17-09
Morning all,
Finally back in profit with six winners yesterday, although rule fours still cut into the profit a bit. The Game Changer was sadly not good enough, something possibly caused by the ground, but he was well beaten. Frodon on the other hand earned himself a place in my tracker with an easy win over at Newton Abbot and although he over-jumped a couple of fences, he seems to enjoy chasing. The NAP found little for pressure and finished third, but the next best absolutely bolted up. Finally, the third was, was indeed third best as he finished in that position in his race. Still we had our stake returned going each way at 5/1.
An all jumps card from Listowel today, with a couple of well fancied runners like Aspen Colorado and Tocororo. The NAP however is Penhill, who is yet to look a natural over hurdles, but seems to have bags of raw ability and that could just see him through today. Both his wins have come over the two mile trip and he's well suited to conditions.
The Next Best is Not For You for Charlie Byrnes. He was looking to have plenty in hand when carried out last time. The only concern is the recent spate of 'F''s in his form, but other than that it reads well. If he can avoid any mishaps today, he could well run away with the spoils.
I've included two from the Ayr meeting, Shipyard in the Silver Cup and two from the Gold Cup. Shipyard ran well for 6th last week and I think a first time visor could give him the necessary improvement to get into the frame today. In the Gold Cup, I've gone for Orion's Bow & Aeolus. The former has been in tremendous form this year, although he didn't fire in the Great St Wilfried. He's had a break since then and hopefully that'll see him bounce back. The other is Aeolus, who has only ran in group company for the last two years and steps down in class. He's not been out of place in those group races, including winning a group 3 last year. If he can run to a similar form to his fourth in the Group 3 at Newbury, he should be on the premises.
Listowel
1.50 Aspen Colorado 8/15
2.20 Penhill 7/4 NAP
2.55 Diamond Dame 6/1
3.30 Buster Dan Dan 11/1
4.05 Katie Do 8/1
4.40 Not For You 2/1 NB
5.10 Tocororo 8/11
5.45 The Winkler 13/2
Ayr
2.35 Shipyard 16/1
3.45 Orion's Bow 14/1
Aeolus 20/1
Yesterday's Results
Hexham
4.30 Nonchalant 4/1 - 5th
5.05 Blake Dean 13/8 - 4th
5.35 Black Ivory 7/4 NAP - 3rd
6.05 Follow The Swallow 6/1 - Unseated Rider
6.35 Wyfield Rose 11/2 NB - Won @ 6/1 (20pR4)
7.05 Fred Le Macon 5/1 - Won
Newton Abbot
1.50 Bilidn 20/1 - Non Runner
2.20 Master Dancer 3/1 - Won
2.55 Frodon 4/6 - Won
3.30 The Wealerdealer 5/1 3B - 3rd
4.05 Strumble Head 8/1 - 6th
4.40 Honourable Exit 16/1 - 8th
5.15 Pokari 5/2 - Won (50pR4)
Listowel
4.20 The Game Changer 4/9 Tracker - 3rd
4.55 Tristam Shandy 8/1 - 3rd (40pR4)
5.25 Electric Concorde 8/11 - Won @ 10/11
5.55 Trans Highway 10/11 - 2nd
Points Staked: 34
Points Returned: 43.61
Profit: 9.61
Running Total: -16.00 (since 30th August)
Selections are 2 points win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
Finally back in profit with six winners yesterday, although rule fours still cut into the profit a bit. The Game Changer was sadly not good enough, something possibly caused by the ground, but he was well beaten. Frodon on the other hand earned himself a place in my tracker with an easy win over at Newton Abbot and although he over-jumped a couple of fences, he seems to enjoy chasing. The NAP found little for pressure and finished third, but the next best absolutely bolted up. Finally, the third was, was indeed third best as he finished in that position in his race. Still we had our stake returned going each way at 5/1.
An all jumps card from Listowel today, with a couple of well fancied runners like Aspen Colorado and Tocororo. The NAP however is Penhill, who is yet to look a natural over hurdles, but seems to have bags of raw ability and that could just see him through today. Both his wins have come over the two mile trip and he's well suited to conditions.
The Next Best is Not For You for Charlie Byrnes. He was looking to have plenty in hand when carried out last time. The only concern is the recent spate of 'F''s in his form, but other than that it reads well. If he can avoid any mishaps today, he could well run away with the spoils.
I've included two from the Ayr meeting, Shipyard in the Silver Cup and two from the Gold Cup. Shipyard ran well for 6th last week and I think a first time visor could give him the necessary improvement to get into the frame today. In the Gold Cup, I've gone for Orion's Bow & Aeolus. The former has been in tremendous form this year, although he didn't fire in the Great St Wilfried. He's had a break since then and hopefully that'll see him bounce back. The other is Aeolus, who has only ran in group company for the last two years and steps down in class. He's not been out of place in those group races, including winning a group 3 last year. If he can run to a similar form to his fourth in the Group 3 at Newbury, he should be on the premises.
Listowel
1.50 Aspen Colorado 8/15
2.20 Penhill 7/4 NAP
2.55 Diamond Dame 6/1
3.30 Buster Dan Dan 11/1
4.05 Katie Do 8/1
4.40 Not For You 2/1 NB
5.10 Tocororo 8/11
5.45 The Winkler 13/2
Ayr
2.35 Shipyard 16/1
3.45 Orion's Bow 14/1
Aeolus 20/1
Yesterday's Results
Hexham
4.30 Nonchalant 4/1 - 5th
5.05 Blake Dean 13/8 - 4th
5.35 Black Ivory 7/4 NAP - 3rd
6.05 Follow The Swallow 6/1 - Unseated Rider
6.35 Wyfield Rose 11/2 NB - Won @ 6/1 (20pR4)
7.05 Fred Le Macon 5/1 - Won
Newton Abbot
1.50 Bilidn 20/1 - Non Runner
2.20 Master Dancer 3/1 - Won
2.55 Frodon 4/6 - Won
3.30 The Wealerdealer 5/1 3B - 3rd
4.05 Strumble Head 8/1 - 6th
4.40 Honourable Exit 16/1 - 8th
5.15 Pokari 5/2 - Won (50pR4)
Listowel
4.20 The Game Changer 4/9 Tracker - 3rd
4.55 Tristam Shandy 8/1 - 3rd (40pR4)
5.25 Electric Concorde 8/11 - Won @ 10/11
5.55 Trans Highway 10/11 - 2nd
Points Staked: 34
Points Returned: 43.61
Profit: 9.61
Running Total: -16.00 (since 30th August)
Selections are 2 points win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
Friday 16 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 16-09
Morning all,
A desperate day yesterday. Two winners at decent price managed to limit the damage, but two well fancied runners had problems as Safe Voyage unseated its rider when coming with a challenge and Almovodar pulled up suddenly in the feature race at Ayr. The NB won well with a nice drift on the odds to boot, but the 3B was not good enough on the day.
We're back to the jumps today and one tracker horse goes over in Ireland. The Game Changer really should be winning the first jumps race at Listowel with plenty in hand, and I'll admit he's no great price, but I'd be surprised if he gets overturned. There's a couple of shorties at Listowel for me, so upsets are always a risk.
The Best three come from the UK, at Hexham and Newton Abbot. The NAP is Black Ivory for Malcolm Jefferson in the 5.35. An impressive winner of a bumper at this track, he now steps up in trip to go hurdling and I think he has a great chance to get off the mark.
The Next Best runs an hour later and I like the chances of hattrick seeking Wyfield Rose. Another C&D winner, who has two 3 mile victories at Perth to her name, she's in excellent form at the moment. She's been raised five lbs, but I don't think that'll be enough to stop her at present, despite a competitive field. The top four in the market all have a good chance.
Finally, we go to Newton Abbot, where The Wealerdealer is the pick in the 3.30. He won over C&D, under Daryl Jacob, in June and although raised 7 lbs for that victory, he could have more to come. Conditions should suit and he could get the better of Princess Tiana who was denied the hattrick at Worcester and steps up in trip.
16-09
Hexham
4.30 Nonchalant 4/1
5.05 Blake Dean 13/8
5.35 Black Ivory 7/4 NAP
6.05 Follow The Swallow 6/1
6.35 Wyfield Rose 11/2 NB
7.05 Fred Le Macon 5/1
Newton Abbot
1.50 Bilidn 20/1
2.20 Master Dancer 3/1
2.55 Frodon 4/6
3.30 The Wealerdealer 5/1 3B
4.05 Strumble Head 8/1
4.40 Honourable Exit 16/1
5.15 Pokari 5/2
Listowel
4.20 The Game Changer 4/9 Tracker
4.55 Tristam Shandy 8/1
5.25 Electric Concorde 8/11
5.55 Trans Highway 10/11
Yesterday's ResultsListowel
4.05 Woodford Island 7/2 - 2nd
4.40 Mister Hotelier 14/1 - 7th
5.15 Buckskin Boulta 15/2 - 9th
5.45 Miss Eyecatcher 5/1 - Won @ 11/2
Ayr
1.30 Double Touch 11/4 - 5th
2.00 Argaki 14/1 - 10th
2.35 Donnelly's Rainbow 18/1 - 5th
3.05 Safe Voyage 4/1 - Unseated Rider
3.40 Falcon's Fire 7/2 - 3rd
4.15 Sattelac 9/1 - 6th
4.50 Almovodar 7/4 NAP - Pulled Up
5.20 Go Go Green 12/1 - 8th
Yarmouth
2.45 Battered 5/2 NB - Won @ 7/2
5.30 Valley of Fire 3/1 3B - 6th
Selections are 2 points win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
A desperate day yesterday. Two winners at decent price managed to limit the damage, but two well fancied runners had problems as Safe Voyage unseated its rider when coming with a challenge and Almovodar pulled up suddenly in the feature race at Ayr. The NB won well with a nice drift on the odds to boot, but the 3B was not good enough on the day.
We're back to the jumps today and one tracker horse goes over in Ireland. The Game Changer really should be winning the first jumps race at Listowel with plenty in hand, and I'll admit he's no great price, but I'd be surprised if he gets overturned. There's a couple of shorties at Listowel for me, so upsets are always a risk.
The Best three come from the UK, at Hexham and Newton Abbot. The NAP is Black Ivory for Malcolm Jefferson in the 5.35. An impressive winner of a bumper at this track, he now steps up in trip to go hurdling and I think he has a great chance to get off the mark.
The Next Best runs an hour later and I like the chances of hattrick seeking Wyfield Rose. Another C&D winner, who has two 3 mile victories at Perth to her name, she's in excellent form at the moment. She's been raised five lbs, but I don't think that'll be enough to stop her at present, despite a competitive field. The top four in the market all have a good chance.
Finally, we go to Newton Abbot, where The Wealerdealer is the pick in the 3.30. He won over C&D, under Daryl Jacob, in June and although raised 7 lbs for that victory, he could have more to come. Conditions should suit and he could get the better of Princess Tiana who was denied the hattrick at Worcester and steps up in trip.
16-09
Hexham
4.30 Nonchalant 4/1
5.05 Blake Dean 13/8
5.35 Black Ivory 7/4 NAP
6.05 Follow The Swallow 6/1
6.35 Wyfield Rose 11/2 NB
7.05 Fred Le Macon 5/1
Newton Abbot
1.50 Bilidn 20/1
2.20 Master Dancer 3/1
2.55 Frodon 4/6
3.30 The Wealerdealer 5/1 3B
4.05 Strumble Head 8/1
4.40 Honourable Exit 16/1
5.15 Pokari 5/2
Listowel
4.20 The Game Changer 4/9 Tracker
4.55 Tristam Shandy 8/1
5.25 Electric Concorde 8/11
5.55 Trans Highway 10/11
Yesterday's ResultsListowel
4.05 Woodford Island 7/2 - 2nd
4.40 Mister Hotelier 14/1 - 7th
5.15 Buckskin Boulta 15/2 - 9th
5.45 Miss Eyecatcher 5/1 - Won @ 11/2
Ayr
1.30 Double Touch 11/4 - 5th
2.00 Argaki 14/1 - 10th
2.35 Donnelly's Rainbow 18/1 - 5th
3.05 Safe Voyage 4/1 - Unseated Rider
3.40 Falcon's Fire 7/2 - 3rd
4.15 Sattelac 9/1 - 6th
4.50 Almovodar 7/4 NAP - Pulled Up
5.20 Go Go Green 12/1 - 8th
Yarmouth
2.45 Battered 5/2 NB - Won @ 7/2
5.30 Valley of Fire 3/1 3B - 6th
Points Staked: 28
Points Returned: 17.88
Profit: -10.12
Running Total: -25.61 (since 30th August)
Points Returned: 17.88
Profit: -10.12
Running Total: -25.61 (since 30th August)
Selections are 2 points win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
Thursday 15 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 15-09
Morning all,
Three winners yesterday was not enough to return a profit, mainly due to one of them being hit by a hefty R4. The best three were also disappointing, even more so because the NB Martila drifted to an each way price and then finished second.
Only half a jumps card from Listowel today, so I've chanced my hand at the Ayr festival and also picked out two from Yarmouth that I think should really go well. Conditions could be crucial, as Listowel is said to be heavy and Ayr on the soft side with more rain forecast. Those conditions should suit the NAP today, Almovodar. He has to give weight to his main rival Abdon, but he has a good record in softer ground, is a winner over and C&D and takes a step down in grade to compete here. Third in the Hardwicke at Ascot, a similar run going forwards should see him go close
The other two come from Yarmouth, where the ground is better and I fancy Battered to put that to good use in the 2.45. He was well backed last time out at York, despite being stuck out wide and still managed to finish third. William Haggas has his yard in fine fettle and this son of Foxwedge could have a big say on proceedings.
Haggas has Valley of Fire in the last and things finally seem to have clicked for this one with a win last time out at Haydock. This is a weaker race than that one and despite a 3 lbs higher mark, he seemed to have more in the tank at Haydock and is fancied to follow up.
Listowel
4.05 Woodford Island 7/2
4.40 Mister Hotelier 14/1
5.15 Buckskin Boulta 15/2
5.45 Miss Eyecatcher 5/1
Ayr
1.30 Double Touch 11/4
2.00 Argaki 14/1
2.35 Donnelly's Rainbow 18/1
3.05 Safe Voyage 4/1
3.40 Falcon's Fire 7/2
4.15 Sattelac 9/1
4.50 Almovodar 7/4 NAP
5.20 Go Go Green 12/1
Yarmouth
2.45 Battered 5/2 NB
5.30 Valley of Fire 3/1 3B
Yesterday's Results
Kelso
4.15 Theligny 1/1 - Won
4.50 Amilliontimes 7/2 - Won (35pR4)
5.25 Touch of Steel 10/1 - Pulled Up
6.00 Nautical Twilight 7/1 3B - 5th
6.30 Martila 7/2 NB - 2nd
7.00 Temple Man 5/4 NAP - 3rd
Listowel
4.10 Folsom Blue 7/1 - Pulled Up
4.45 Screaming Rose 11/10 - 3rd
5.20 Timiyan 13/8 - Won @ 9/4
5.50 Fortuna Iuvat 11/4 - 4th
Selections are 2 points win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
Three winners yesterday was not enough to return a profit, mainly due to one of them being hit by a hefty R4. The best three were also disappointing, even more so because the NB Martila drifted to an each way price and then finished second.
Only half a jumps card from Listowel today, so I've chanced my hand at the Ayr festival and also picked out two from Yarmouth that I think should really go well. Conditions could be crucial, as Listowel is said to be heavy and Ayr on the soft side with more rain forecast. Those conditions should suit the NAP today, Almovodar. He has to give weight to his main rival Abdon, but he has a good record in softer ground, is a winner over and C&D and takes a step down in grade to compete here. Third in the Hardwicke at Ascot, a similar run going forwards should see him go close
The other two come from Yarmouth, where the ground is better and I fancy Battered to put that to good use in the 2.45. He was well backed last time out at York, despite being stuck out wide and still managed to finish third. William Haggas has his yard in fine fettle and this son of Foxwedge could have a big say on proceedings.
Haggas has Valley of Fire in the last and things finally seem to have clicked for this one with a win last time out at Haydock. This is a weaker race than that one and despite a 3 lbs higher mark, he seemed to have more in the tank at Haydock and is fancied to follow up.
Listowel
4.05 Woodford Island 7/2
4.40 Mister Hotelier 14/1
5.15 Buckskin Boulta 15/2
5.45 Miss Eyecatcher 5/1
Ayr
1.30 Double Touch 11/4
2.00 Argaki 14/1
2.35 Donnelly's Rainbow 18/1
3.05 Safe Voyage 4/1
3.40 Falcon's Fire 7/2
4.15 Sattelac 9/1
4.50 Almovodar 7/4 NAP
5.20 Go Go Green 12/1
Yarmouth
2.45 Battered 5/2 NB
5.30 Valley of Fire 3/1 3B
Yesterday's Results
Kelso
4.15 Theligny 1/1 - Won
4.50 Amilliontimes 7/2 - Won (35pR4)
5.25 Touch of Steel 10/1 - Pulled Up
6.00 Nautical Twilight 7/1 3B - 5th
6.30 Martila 7/2 NB - 2nd
7.00 Temple Man 5/4 NAP - 3rd
Listowel
4.10 Folsom Blue 7/1 - Pulled Up
4.45 Screaming Rose 11/10 - 3rd
5.20 Timiyan 13/8 - Won @ 9/4
5.50 Fortuna Iuvat 11/4 - 4th
Points Staked: 20
Points Returned: 16.60
Profit: -3.40
Running Total: -15.49 (since 30th August)
Points Returned: 16.60
Profit: -3.40
Running Total: -15.49 (since 30th August)
Selections are 2 points win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
Wednesday 14 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 14-09
Morning all,
Back after a bit of a break, I've been freshened up and hopefully we can return straight to form after some disappointing efforts.
There's an evening card from Kelso, as well as four jumps races at Listowel, including the Kerry National. In that race, I like the look of the favourite, Folsom Blue. He's got good form and is the pick of the Gigginstown battalions judging by the booking of Cooper. Mouse Morris won this last year and has a chance to repeat that this year. Gordon Elliot fires a large amount of darts, but he needs one to improve to land the pot.
The best three come from Kelso and we start in the bumper where Malcolm Jefferson has Temple Man. He's a half-brother to a number of National Hunt winner and Jefferson has an excellent bumper record. 5/4 seems a fair price and with stable jockey Brian Hughes on board this should be a winner on the board.
In the 6.30, Martila has an excellent chance to complete a hattrick. She won a novice hurdle before following up with an impressive handicap win at Cartmel by 13 lengths. She gets a massive weight allowance from the other top runners in the race and that could well make the difference.
Finally, in the 6.00, there's another Jefferson runner I'm keen on. Nautical Twilight had a fruitful spell towards the end of last year, only just being denied a hattrick on the line at Catterick. She goes well fresh, judging by her second place after a long break this time last year. I don't think there's much between her, Theflyingportrait and Roman Flight, but she's a much bigger price at 7/1 and represents the value.
14-09
Kelso
4.15 Theligny 1/1
4.50 Amilliontimes 7/2
5.25 Touch of Steel 10/1
6.00 Nautical Twilight 7/1 3B
6.30 Martila 7/2 NB
7.00 Temple Man 5/4 NAP
Listowel
4.10 Folsom Blue 7/1
4.45 Screaming Rose 11/10
5.20 Timiyan 13/8
5.50 Fortuna Iuvat 11/4
Previous Results (8th of September)
Doncaster
1.55 Arwa 8/1 - 7th
2.30 Blending 11/4 - 6th
3.05 Simple Verse 5/1 - Won
3.40 Stormy Clouds 7/1 - 7th
4.15 Poet's Word 7/4 - 2nd
4.50 Hydroxide 3/1 - 2nd
6.00 Shipyard 14/1 - 6th
Selections are 2 points a win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
Back after a bit of a break, I've been freshened up and hopefully we can return straight to form after some disappointing efforts.
There's an evening card from Kelso, as well as four jumps races at Listowel, including the Kerry National. In that race, I like the look of the favourite, Folsom Blue. He's got good form and is the pick of the Gigginstown battalions judging by the booking of Cooper. Mouse Morris won this last year and has a chance to repeat that this year. Gordon Elliot fires a large amount of darts, but he needs one to improve to land the pot.
The best three come from Kelso and we start in the bumper where Malcolm Jefferson has Temple Man. He's a half-brother to a number of National Hunt winner and Jefferson has an excellent bumper record. 5/4 seems a fair price and with stable jockey Brian Hughes on board this should be a winner on the board.
In the 6.30, Martila has an excellent chance to complete a hattrick. She won a novice hurdle before following up with an impressive handicap win at Cartmel by 13 lengths. She gets a massive weight allowance from the other top runners in the race and that could well make the difference.
Finally, in the 6.00, there's another Jefferson runner I'm keen on. Nautical Twilight had a fruitful spell towards the end of last year, only just being denied a hattrick on the line at Catterick. She goes well fresh, judging by her second place after a long break this time last year. I don't think there's much between her, Theflyingportrait and Roman Flight, but she's a much bigger price at 7/1 and represents the value.
14-09
Kelso
4.15 Theligny 1/1
4.50 Amilliontimes 7/2
5.25 Touch of Steel 10/1
6.00 Nautical Twilight 7/1 3B
6.30 Martila 7/2 NB
7.00 Temple Man 5/4 NAP
Listowel
4.10 Folsom Blue 7/1
4.45 Screaming Rose 11/10
5.20 Timiyan 13/8
5.50 Fortuna Iuvat 11/4
Previous Results (8th of September)
Doncaster
1.55 Arwa 8/1 - 7th
2.30 Blending 11/4 - 6th
3.05 Simple Verse 5/1 - Won
3.40 Stormy Clouds 7/1 - 7th
4.15 Poet's Word 7/4 - 2nd
4.50 Hydroxide 3/1 - 2nd
6.00 Shipyard 14/1 - 6th
Points Staked: 14
Points Returned: 8.25
Profit: -5.75
Running Total: -12.09 (since 30th August)
Points Returned: 8.25
Profit: -5.75
Running Total: -12.09 (since 30th August)
Selections are 2 points a win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
Thursday 8 September 2016
Red's Favourite Five for 16/17
With the nights drawing in and the temperatures dropping, a lot of National Hunt fans are starting to rub their hands with glee. Our favourite type of racing is going to return soon and I for one am very much looking forward to the return of real jumps racing. Don't get me wrong, I don't dislike the flat, but proper National Hunt racing is where my heart lies. As such, I've picked out a couple of horses that I'm looking forward to seeing these coming winter months.
Cyrus Darius 7 b g - (Overbury x Barton Belle (Barathea)) - Malcolm Jefferson
I first watched him bolt up at Hexham by 23 lengths from Captain Hox in second and although he was the hot favourite in that race, he did it all in second gear. I could not get over the size of him, he's a giant. All in all, he's three from three over hurdles, including a Grade Two win. He made a less than impressive debut over fences last season, but still managed to get up on the line. He looked to have the race put to bed, but a big mistake three out let Shadow Catcher back in it and he nearly managed to throw it away. There were excuses for his performance that day, but we haven't yet been able to see if he is the real deal after injury ruled him out for the season.
But all the same, he's still a very exciting prospect. A big strapping type of a horse, he showed some promise jumping over fences on his first start over a trip that may well have been slightly too far (2m4, whereas he's always ran over two miles previously). Jefferson stated afterwards he'd be going back in trip and I do think two miles will see him in the best light. Having won that race at Perth, he's no longer a novice, so he'll have to take on some of the stars of the division if he's going to show how good he is. No plans have come out of Newstead Stables yet, so it is a case of wait and see. Personally, I'd love to see him take on the very best, but with a curtailed novice season, he may need to grow a bit before he's capable of doing that.
Either way, I'll be watching with interest.
Valadom 7 g g - (Dadarissime x Laurana (Badolato)) - Richard Hobson
My regular followers will know that Valadom is a big favourite of mine and he's brought be a decent return last year, with two wins and two places. He ran really well on all three of his visits to Cheltenham, running over the Cross Country course, trying to make the running before fading in the last half mile. But there was encouragement for Hobson and his team when the grey gelding won at Uttoxeter on his latest outing over three miles, staying on strongly from the last. He runs the cross country course really well and if he's gotten a bit stronger, he could well be a challenger around that course again this winter. He is a great jumper and there's something about a grey horse flashing over a fence that is immensely pleasing to the eye.
I asked Richard Hobson on Twitter if we'd see him at the cross country again and he replied that he was hopeful, but that the Grand Sefton Chase at Aintree (over 2m5f) was the main aim for the autumn. Hopefully, he'll get good-ish ground for that, as that seems to be where he performs best (although his solitary soft/heavy ground appearance saw him claim second despite some uncharacteristic indifferent jumping).
In any case, he's a great horse to watch and I'm hoping we'll see him to his very best over fences again this season.
Milsean 7 b g - (Milan x Boro Supreme (Supreme Leader)) - Willie Mullins
Another one who was plagued by injury last year and has not been seen since the 2015 Albert Bartlett, this son of Milan is all about stamina. He was only just touched off by Martello Tower in said Cheltenham race by half a length, having made most of the running. I was on him that day at 33/1 and was gutted that he couldn't quite hold on. But he did beat some of last years stars in No More Heroes, Black Hercules and Native River. All three of those have since won Grade 1 Novice Chases and I would imagine Milsean will go that route now that he's back in training. Gigginstown are no great fans of hurdling and like their runners to go over fences.
Milsean's best runs have come on soft or heavy ground and he does have a bit of a high knee action, so that would probably suit him quite well. A strong stayer, I'd imagine he'll go either three miles or further, which puts the National Hunt Chase and the RSA on the map as potential targets at Cheltenham (especially with the former now up in Grade). But as is usual with horses trained by Mr Mullins, your guess is as good as mine. We'll have to see where he turns up and how he is after a long lay-off, but that Albert Bartlett run was full of potential and I'd happily follow him all winter long in soft or heavy conditions.
Ok Corral 6 b g - (Mahler x Acoola (Flemensfirth)) - Nicky Henderson
The third of my list that has missed last season due to injury, this horse was very impressive in a bumper at the Punchestown festival in 2015, behind Yorkhill. That was only his second run and he closed in the final stages of that race, from six lengths behind to finish only just over two behind the eventual winner, who wasn't eased. He beat the likes of Up For Review, Newsworth and Alamein that day, but hasn't been seen all of last year. There was nothing in particular, just niggles that kept him out all season and Henderson is notoriously cautious, especially with younger horses.
He will be running in the colours of JP McManus this season when he returns and I'd imagine JP will be hoping he can be a dart in one of the novice races at the festival. Looking at the way he kept on and the path Yorkhill took, the Neptune seems to be a likely consideration. I think the Supreme might be too sharp for him and you'd imagine that 2m5f will be much more suitable. One to keep an eye out for to see how he gets on early doors.
Clondaw Cian 6 b g - (Gold Well x Cocktail Bar (Hubbly Bubbly)) - Susie Smith
The final one is another I've banged on about in the past. Clondaw Cian has been found out at Grade Two level last season, but ran promisingly behind Copper Kay on debut in a bumper, before duly obliging the next time out beating subsequent Supreme runner William H Bonney. He followed that up with a win on hurdles debut, winning quite comfortably. He couldn't follow that up in two Grade 2 Neptune trials and although he finished second in two subsequent novice hurdles, he was the short price favourite for both of them and didn't seem to have come on.
I don't know what the plans are, if they are likely to go chasing or handicap hurdling, but I do think in either discipline he's got the potential to improve. He did win a maiden point to point for Michael Goff before he came to Susie Smith, so you'd think chasing would be on the agenda. He's a strong dour type who seems suited by soft or heavy conditions and I'll be looking out for him this winter
Cyrus Darius 7 b g - (Overbury x Barton Belle (Barathea)) - Malcolm Jefferson
I first watched him bolt up at Hexham by 23 lengths from Captain Hox in second and although he was the hot favourite in that race, he did it all in second gear. I could not get over the size of him, he's a giant. All in all, he's three from three over hurdles, including a Grade Two win. He made a less than impressive debut over fences last season, but still managed to get up on the line. He looked to have the race put to bed, but a big mistake three out let Shadow Catcher back in it and he nearly managed to throw it away. There were excuses for his performance that day, but we haven't yet been able to see if he is the real deal after injury ruled him out for the season.
But all the same, he's still a very exciting prospect. A big strapping type of a horse, he showed some promise jumping over fences on his first start over a trip that may well have been slightly too far (2m4, whereas he's always ran over two miles previously). Jefferson stated afterwards he'd be going back in trip and I do think two miles will see him in the best light. Having won that race at Perth, he's no longer a novice, so he'll have to take on some of the stars of the division if he's going to show how good he is. No plans have come out of Newstead Stables yet, so it is a case of wait and see. Personally, I'd love to see him take on the very best, but with a curtailed novice season, he may need to grow a bit before he's capable of doing that.
Either way, I'll be watching with interest.
Valadom 7 g g - (Dadarissime x Laurana (Badolato)) - Richard Hobson
My regular followers will know that Valadom is a big favourite of mine and he's brought be a decent return last year, with two wins and two places. He ran really well on all three of his visits to Cheltenham, running over the Cross Country course, trying to make the running before fading in the last half mile. But there was encouragement for Hobson and his team when the grey gelding won at Uttoxeter on his latest outing over three miles, staying on strongly from the last. He runs the cross country course really well and if he's gotten a bit stronger, he could well be a challenger around that course again this winter. He is a great jumper and there's something about a grey horse flashing over a fence that is immensely pleasing to the eye.
I asked Richard Hobson on Twitter if we'd see him at the cross country again and he replied that he was hopeful, but that the Grand Sefton Chase at Aintree (over 2m5f) was the main aim for the autumn. Hopefully, he'll get good-ish ground for that, as that seems to be where he performs best (although his solitary soft/heavy ground appearance saw him claim second despite some uncharacteristic indifferent jumping).
In any case, he's a great horse to watch and I'm hoping we'll see him to his very best over fences again this season.
Milsean 7 b g - (Milan x Boro Supreme (Supreme Leader)) - Willie Mullins
Another one who was plagued by injury last year and has not been seen since the 2015 Albert Bartlett, this son of Milan is all about stamina. He was only just touched off by Martello Tower in said Cheltenham race by half a length, having made most of the running. I was on him that day at 33/1 and was gutted that he couldn't quite hold on. But he did beat some of last years stars in No More Heroes, Black Hercules and Native River. All three of those have since won Grade 1 Novice Chases and I would imagine Milsean will go that route now that he's back in training. Gigginstown are no great fans of hurdling and like their runners to go over fences.
Milsean's best runs have come on soft or heavy ground and he does have a bit of a high knee action, so that would probably suit him quite well. A strong stayer, I'd imagine he'll go either three miles or further, which puts the National Hunt Chase and the RSA on the map as potential targets at Cheltenham (especially with the former now up in Grade). But as is usual with horses trained by Mr Mullins, your guess is as good as mine. We'll have to see where he turns up and how he is after a long lay-off, but that Albert Bartlett run was full of potential and I'd happily follow him all winter long in soft or heavy conditions.
Ok Corral 6 b g - (Mahler x Acoola (Flemensfirth)) - Nicky Henderson
The third of my list that has missed last season due to injury, this horse was very impressive in a bumper at the Punchestown festival in 2015, behind Yorkhill. That was only his second run and he closed in the final stages of that race, from six lengths behind to finish only just over two behind the eventual winner, who wasn't eased. He beat the likes of Up For Review, Newsworth and Alamein that day, but hasn't been seen all of last year. There was nothing in particular, just niggles that kept him out all season and Henderson is notoriously cautious, especially with younger horses.
He will be running in the colours of JP McManus this season when he returns and I'd imagine JP will be hoping he can be a dart in one of the novice races at the festival. Looking at the way he kept on and the path Yorkhill took, the Neptune seems to be a likely consideration. I think the Supreme might be too sharp for him and you'd imagine that 2m5f will be much more suitable. One to keep an eye out for to see how he gets on early doors.
Clondaw Cian 6 b g - (Gold Well x Cocktail Bar (Hubbly Bubbly)) - Susie Smith
The final one is another I've banged on about in the past. Clondaw Cian has been found out at Grade Two level last season, but ran promisingly behind Copper Kay on debut in a bumper, before duly obliging the next time out beating subsequent Supreme runner William H Bonney. He followed that up with a win on hurdles debut, winning quite comfortably. He couldn't follow that up in two Grade 2 Neptune trials and although he finished second in two subsequent novice hurdles, he was the short price favourite for both of them and didn't seem to have come on.
I don't know what the plans are, if they are likely to go chasing or handicap hurdling, but I do think in either discipline he's got the potential to improve. He did win a maiden point to point for Michael Goff before he came to Susie Smith, so you'd think chasing would be on the agenda. He's a strong dour type who seems suited by soft or heavy conditions and I'll be looking out for him this winter
Reds Racing Tips 08-09
Morning all,
Another disappointing day yesterday, with the NAP only finishing 6th and a few other fancies just missing the frame. The Next Best did absolutely bolt up under a penalty, but it was not enough to return a profit for the day. One to keep an eye on though, is State The Obvious. I gave her a mention yesterday as she is well related and she showed up well for a long way before weakening. She'll hopefully come on for the experience and I wouldn't rule her out next time she shows up.
No jumps racing in the UK today and the Irish card at Clonmel doesn't look that interesting, so I'll have a bash at the flat racing at Doncaster. Day two of the St Leger festival kicks off and I've had a look at all seven races.
Doncaster
1.55: I would say this is between Glitter Girl, Arwa (8/1) and Rosabelle. I think Arwa is open to further improvement having won well at Ripon last time out and at 8/1 she's a very nice price.
2.30: Another good two year old race and it looks a match bet between Kilmah and Blending (11/4) for me. The former is much more exposed and although she won well at Goodwood last time out, I think she might have hit her peak. Blending meanwhile has only had two runs and is still improving. Rated 16 lbs inferior on ratings, she had two subsequent winners behind at Newmarket last time out and I'd back Gosden's filly to continue improving.
3.05: Now this is competitive. Abingdon and Simple Verse (5/1) are the two class acts in the field however and at the prices, I'm going to chance last year's St Leger winner to follow up at the same festival this year.
3.40: Another competitive race and I'm going to side with Stormy Clouds (7/1) She did well to land the win at York last time out and hopefully the blinkers will continue to have a good effect.
4.15 Poet's Word (7/4) is still improving and can put a 10 lbs raise in the weights behind him under Ryan Moore.
4.50 A bit of give in the ground should suit Hydroxide (3/1). The son of Lope de Vega was slowly away on debut, but ran on well behind the 1/5 favourite to claim second and if he can break on terms this time, he could go close.
6.00 Shipyard (14/1) has done me some good over the last year or so with a couple of wins and places and I think he has the chance to hit the frame again.
Yesterday's results
Uttoxeter
2.10 Skylander 4/1 NAP - 6th
2.40 Jimmy The Jetplane 10/11 - 2nd
3.15 State The Obvious 14/1 - 6th
3.50 Dovils Date 9/4 NB - Won
4.20 Strongly Suggested 4/1 - 4th
4.55 Rose Red 15/2 - 6th
Selections are 2 points a win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
Another disappointing day yesterday, with the NAP only finishing 6th and a few other fancies just missing the frame. The Next Best did absolutely bolt up under a penalty, but it was not enough to return a profit for the day. One to keep an eye on though, is State The Obvious. I gave her a mention yesterday as she is well related and she showed up well for a long way before weakening. She'll hopefully come on for the experience and I wouldn't rule her out next time she shows up.
No jumps racing in the UK today and the Irish card at Clonmel doesn't look that interesting, so I'll have a bash at the flat racing at Doncaster. Day two of the St Leger festival kicks off and I've had a look at all seven races.
Doncaster
1.55: I would say this is between Glitter Girl, Arwa (8/1) and Rosabelle. I think Arwa is open to further improvement having won well at Ripon last time out and at 8/1 she's a very nice price.
2.30: Another good two year old race and it looks a match bet between Kilmah and Blending (11/4) for me. The former is much more exposed and although she won well at Goodwood last time out, I think she might have hit her peak. Blending meanwhile has only had two runs and is still improving. Rated 16 lbs inferior on ratings, she had two subsequent winners behind at Newmarket last time out and I'd back Gosden's filly to continue improving.
3.05: Now this is competitive. Abingdon and Simple Verse (5/1) are the two class acts in the field however and at the prices, I'm going to chance last year's St Leger winner to follow up at the same festival this year.
3.40: Another competitive race and I'm going to side with Stormy Clouds (7/1) She did well to land the win at York last time out and hopefully the blinkers will continue to have a good effect.
4.15 Poet's Word (7/4) is still improving and can put a 10 lbs raise in the weights behind him under Ryan Moore.
4.50 A bit of give in the ground should suit Hydroxide (3/1). The son of Lope de Vega was slowly away on debut, but ran on well behind the 1/5 favourite to claim second and if he can break on terms this time, he could go close.
6.00 Shipyard (14/1) has done me some good over the last year or so with a couple of wins and places and I think he has the chance to hit the frame again.
Yesterday's results
Uttoxeter
2.10 Skylander 4/1 NAP - 6th
2.40 Jimmy The Jetplane 10/11 - 2nd
3.15 State The Obvious 14/1 - 6th
3.50 Dovils Date 9/4 NB - Won
4.20 Strongly Suggested 4/1 - 4th
4.55 Rose Red 15/2 - 6th
Points Staked: 12
Points Returned: 6.50
Profit: -5.50
Points Returned: 6.50
Profit: -5.50
Running Total: -6.34 (since 30th August)
Selections are 2 points a win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
Wednesday 7 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 07-09
Morning all,
A terrible day yesterday, with a few fancied runners just missing out or falling while in contention. Tracker horse Stephanie Frances was so close to giving away nearly two stone, but couldn't quite get her head up at the line, while the other one, Taglietelle refused to jump four out. The NAP, NB & 3B all made the frame, but none of them were put up at an E/W price, so they go down as a loss as well. All in all, it was a twenty point loss on a big day of racing, but hopefully we can bounce back today.
Just the one jumps meeting from Uttoxeter today and although the St Leger festival kicks off at Doncaster, I'll be watching that rather than betting on it.
We start off with the NAP, Skylander, who was a good second last week at Sedgefield, despite nearly unseating his jockey midway through the race. He runs off the same mark here, down in class. David Pipe's yard is in pretty decent form and hopefully Skylander can go one better than last week.
The next best runs in the 3.50. Dovils Date breezed up by ten lengths last week at Southwell under the same jockey and has an excellent chance to follow up under a penalty. He's due to go up even more, so now is probably a good time to catch him to follow up.
Finally a mention for my selection int he 3.15, newcomer State The Obvious. Her dam, who ran twice over fences in France is a half-sister to the high class hurdler Quevega. By Presenting, this one makes for a very interesting newcomer for JP McManus and could make an impact on debut.
Uttoxeter
2.10 Skylander 4/1 NAP
2.40 Jimmy The Jetplane 10/11
3.15 State The Obvious 14/1
3.50 Dovils Date 9/4 NB
4.20 Strongly Suggested 4/1
4.55 Rose Red 15/2
Yesterday's results
Worcester
2.10 Stephanie Frances 11/8 Tracker - 2nd
2.40 Wait A Second 12/1 - Fell
3.10 Alyasan 5/2 NAP - 2nd
3.40 Robert's Star 2/1 - 2nd
4.10 Miss Beatrice 7/2 - 3rd
4.40 Slieveardagh 7/1 - Pulled Up
Galway
4.25 Mr Antolini 5/4 - Fell
4.55 Dreambaby 3/1 NB - 3rd
5.25 Airlie Beach 11/8 - Won
5.55 Samanntom 14/1 - 8th
6.25 Taglietelle 6/1 Tracker - Refused
6.55 Shake It Up 7/1 - 7th
7.25 Borboleta 4/7 - 4th
Perth
5.10 Kashmiri Sunset 9/4 - 3rd
5.40 Solway Legend 11/4 - Withdrawn
6.10 Mirsaale 2/5 - Won
6.40 Tangolan 11/2 - 2nd (R4)
7.10 Blake Dean 9/4 - Won
7.40 Mighty Leader 9/2 3B - 3rd
Selections are 2 points a win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
A terrible day yesterday, with a few fancied runners just missing out or falling while in contention. Tracker horse Stephanie Frances was so close to giving away nearly two stone, but couldn't quite get her head up at the line, while the other one, Taglietelle refused to jump four out. The NAP, NB & 3B all made the frame, but none of them were put up at an E/W price, so they go down as a loss as well. All in all, it was a twenty point loss on a big day of racing, but hopefully we can bounce back today.
Just the one jumps meeting from Uttoxeter today and although the St Leger festival kicks off at Doncaster, I'll be watching that rather than betting on it.
We start off with the NAP, Skylander, who was a good second last week at Sedgefield, despite nearly unseating his jockey midway through the race. He runs off the same mark here, down in class. David Pipe's yard is in pretty decent form and hopefully Skylander can go one better than last week.
The next best runs in the 3.50. Dovils Date breezed up by ten lengths last week at Southwell under the same jockey and has an excellent chance to follow up under a penalty. He's due to go up even more, so now is probably a good time to catch him to follow up.
Finally a mention for my selection int he 3.15, newcomer State The Obvious. Her dam, who ran twice over fences in France is a half-sister to the high class hurdler Quevega. By Presenting, this one makes for a very interesting newcomer for JP McManus and could make an impact on debut.
Uttoxeter
2.10 Skylander 4/1 NAP
2.40 Jimmy The Jetplane 10/11
3.15 State The Obvious 14/1
3.50 Dovils Date 9/4 NB
4.20 Strongly Suggested 4/1
4.55 Rose Red 15/2
Yesterday's results
Worcester
2.10 Stephanie Frances 11/8 Tracker - 2nd
2.40 Wait A Second 12/1 - Fell
3.10 Alyasan 5/2 NAP - 2nd
3.40 Robert's Star 2/1 - 2nd
4.10 Miss Beatrice 7/2 - 3rd
4.40 Slieveardagh 7/1 - Pulled Up
Galway
4.25 Mr Antolini 5/4 - Fell
4.55 Dreambaby 3/1 NB - 3rd
5.25 Airlie Beach 11/8 - Won
5.55 Samanntom 14/1 - 8th
6.25 Taglietelle 6/1 Tracker - Refused
6.55 Shake It Up 7/1 - 7th
7.25 Borboleta 4/7 - 4th
Perth
5.10 Kashmiri Sunset 9/4 - 3rd
5.40 Solway Legend 11/4 - Withdrawn
6.10 Mirsaale 2/5 - Won
6.40 Tangolan 11/2 - 2nd (R4)
7.10 Blake Dean 9/4 - Won
7.40 Mighty Leader 9/2 3B - 3rd
Points Staked: 38
Points Returned: 17.81
Profit: -20.19
Points Returned: 17.81
Profit: -20.19
Running Total: -0.84 (since 30th August)
Selections are 2 points a win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
Tuesday 6 September 2016
Reds Racing Tips 06-09
Morning all,
Not a great day yesterday, three runners made the frame, but none of them could get their head in front. At least the NAP & NB managed to place at an each-way price, but really we'd have preferred to see them win!
Plenty of opportunities to put that right today though, with three meetings of jumping, including a decent looking Galway card over in Ireland. There's two tracker horses going today, Stephanie Frances will have to try and give a load of weight to her rivals in the opener at Worcester, but she's a classy sort and hopefully the can claim the spoils. Over in Galway, Taglietelle is one of three runners for Gordon Elliot in the 6.25. He was well backed last time out, but fell at the first and hopefully he can put that to rights here.
The best three are spread around today and we start at Worcester's 3.10 wher Alyasan is the NAP. A beaten favourite last time out, having bolted up at a seller previously, he'll be looking to get back on track for the Skeltons. He's dropped in class from the last race and should have further improvement in him.
The next best comes from Galway and it's a Mullins/Walsh combination that will hopefully do the job here. Dreambaby won a bumper at this track last year and she ran a decent race at Tramore last time out finishing third. Hopefully she can build on that and go one better.
Finally, the 3B is a bit of a sentimental one and comes from the last at Perth. Mighty Leader was second last time out at Stratford and he will be Sally Randall's last runner in her name before she joins forces with Fergal O'Brien. It would be great for her to go out on a high and her horse certainly has a chance to do so under Brodie Hampson
Worcester
2.10 Stephanie Frances 11/8 Tracker
2.40 Wait A Second 12/1
3.10 Alyasan 5/2 NAP
3.40 Robert's Star 2/1
4.10 Miss Beatrice 7/2
4.40 Slieveardagh 7/1
Galway
4.25 Mr Antolini 5/4
4.55 Dreambaby 3/1 NB
5.25 Airlie Beach 11/8
5.55 Samanntom 14/1
6.25 Taglietelle 6/1 Tracker
6.55 Shake It Up 7/1
7.25 Borboleta 4/7
Perth
5.10 Kashmiri Sunset 9/4
5.40 Solway Legend 11/4
6.10 Mirsaale 2/5
6.40 Tangolan 11/2
7.10 Blake Dean 9/4
7.40 Mighty Leader 9/2 3B
Yesterday's results
Perth
2.10 What A Game 7/2 - 4th
2.40 Shaiyzar 8/1 NB - 3rd
3.10 Trespassed 4/7 - 3rd
3.40 Endeavor 6/1 - 2nd @ 9/1
4.10 Sweet Holly 11/1 - 8th
4.40 No Such Number 11/2 NAP - 2nd
Selections are 2 points a win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
Not a great day yesterday, three runners made the frame, but none of them could get their head in front. At least the NAP & NB managed to place at an each-way price, but really we'd have preferred to see them win!
Plenty of opportunities to put that right today though, with three meetings of jumping, including a decent looking Galway card over in Ireland. There's two tracker horses going today, Stephanie Frances will have to try and give a load of weight to her rivals in the opener at Worcester, but she's a classy sort and hopefully the can claim the spoils. Over in Galway, Taglietelle is one of three runners for Gordon Elliot in the 6.25. He was well backed last time out, but fell at the first and hopefully he can put that to rights here.
The best three are spread around today and we start at Worcester's 3.10 wher Alyasan is the NAP. A beaten favourite last time out, having bolted up at a seller previously, he'll be looking to get back on track for the Skeltons. He's dropped in class from the last race and should have further improvement in him.
The next best comes from Galway and it's a Mullins/Walsh combination that will hopefully do the job here. Dreambaby won a bumper at this track last year and she ran a decent race at Tramore last time out finishing third. Hopefully she can build on that and go one better.
Finally, the 3B is a bit of a sentimental one and comes from the last at Perth. Mighty Leader was second last time out at Stratford and he will be Sally Randall's last runner in her name before she joins forces with Fergal O'Brien. It would be great for her to go out on a high and her horse certainly has a chance to do so under Brodie Hampson
Worcester
2.10 Stephanie Frances 11/8 Tracker
2.40 Wait A Second 12/1
3.10 Alyasan 5/2 NAP
3.40 Robert's Star 2/1
4.10 Miss Beatrice 7/2
4.40 Slieveardagh 7/1
Galway
4.25 Mr Antolini 5/4
4.55 Dreambaby 3/1 NB
5.25 Airlie Beach 11/8
5.55 Samanntom 14/1
6.25 Taglietelle 6/1 Tracker
6.55 Shake It Up 7/1
7.25 Borboleta 4/7
Perth
5.10 Kashmiri Sunset 9/4
5.40 Solway Legend 11/4
6.10 Mirsaale 2/5
6.40 Tangolan 11/2
7.10 Blake Dean 9/4
7.40 Mighty Leader 9/2 3B
Perth
2.10 What A Game 7/2 - 4th
2.40 Shaiyzar 8/1 NB - 3rd
3.10 Trespassed 4/7 - 3rd
3.40 Endeavor 6/1 - 2nd @ 9/1
4.10 Sweet Holly 11/1 - 8th
4.40 No Such Number 11/2 NAP - 2nd
Points Staked: 12
Points Returned: 7.95
Profit: -4.05
Points Returned: 7.95
Profit: -4.05
Running Total: +19.35 (since 30th August)
Selections are 2 points a win at 9/2 or smaller and 1 point each way at 5/1 or bigger
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