Morning all,
Two decent priced winners on Saturday and it could've been even better if Cloonacool hadn't fallen when surging to the front, but c'est la vie. The only jumps card today comes from Newton Abbot where the going is said to be good-good to soft in places
2.00 We start off with a mares' novices' hurdle and a very short favourite for Colin Tizzard and Dickie Johnson. Ivor's Queen won over C&D in June on debut for Tizzard, but hasn't managed to oblige since, although the last time she came down when well ahead. She should be winning this on all known form, but since it's 5/1 bar her, there's some value to be had here. I'm going to take a chance on Jezzebelle (10/1) for Gary Moore. She was a close second on bumper debut in August, but couldn't follow that up next time out finishing well behind. She makes her hurdles debut today and the Moore yard has had some decent winners of late, both on the flat and over obstacles and hopefully she can give a good account
2.30 A three runner field, but it's in essence a match between Ballybolley and Marracudja (8/11). The latter makes his chase debut, but was rated a fair bit higher over hurdles than his opponent and he should be able to claim the spoils here, getting weight. Ballybolly can be very hit and miss over fences and I don't think he'll be able to beat Paul Nicholls' charge
3.00 Another three runner field and it seems to be another match bet between Nigel Twiston-Davies and Paul Nicholls. Again I have to go for the champion trainer with Rainy City (evs). He does well fresh, having won off after breaks before and racked up three wins from four races in the spring. That included beating John Monsah, a subsequent three-time winner, by fourteen lengths. Templeross has ran with credit for Twiston-Davies, but seems to save his best performances for winter ground and could well find this going too fast.
3.30 Next Sensation is the obvious first port of call here. A festival winner, he hasn't quite had everything going his way since then and has struggled to get back to form. He is now rated a long way lower than then though and if he's none the worse for his fall at Cartmel, he could be player. But it's hard for me to put my faith in a form line that reads 00F-P4F. Instead I'm going to chance Canicallyouback (4/1) for Evan Williams. A course and distance winner in July, he was third behind Owen Na View (also in this race) last time out, but should be able to reverse that form with the change in weights.
4.00 A competitive handicap hurdle next where it's 4/1 the field. Hattrick seeking Polo The Mumm will be favourite, but he has to contende with another 12 lbs rise in the weights for his latest success over C&D and that could stop him. Kentford Heiress has similar issues, looking for a four timer off another 7 lbs gain, so insted I'm going to chance one from down the bottom. Exemplary (18/1) may be the outsider of the field, but he didn't run a bad on his penultimate start. He was well beaten by the winner but another 11 lengths clear of the rest of the field in second. A bad blunder put paid to his chances on his next appearance, but if he can cut out the mistakes, there's no reason to think he couldn't have a say in proceedings.
4.30 A selling hurdle to finish off with and it's nothing to get excited about. Zero Visibility seems to save his best for over fences, while Taste the Wine isn't exactly prolific in his winning streaks. Instead I'm going to take a chance on the unexposed Moulin Rouge (7/1) making her debut for a new yard with a first time tongue tie. She was six lengths behind the winner in a handicap hurdle over at Southwell latest and a run to similar form could be enough to claim the spoils.
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