Weekend Preview - Ascot

Weekend Preview - Ascot

Expected going: Soft-Heavy in places

By @Redgameracer

1.50 The Warfield Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

We start off the graded races with the Warfield Mares Hurdle, although the race seems to have little bearing on what happens in the Mares Hurdle at the festival. Interesting to see that Willie Mullins sends Vroum Vroum Mag (4/9) over for this. It begs the question as to her festival target. She has entries in both the World Hurdle and the Mares Hurdle and with this being over the further distance, you could well anticipate a tilt at the former. Unbeaten since joining the Mullins yard, this seven year old mare has won both over timber and over fences and is surely the classiest animal in the lineup. Barring any mishaps, she should be the one crossing the line first.

Harry Fry won this the last two years and he sends Desert Queen (7/1) out this time ‘round. She won well here back in November over 2m5f, but will need to make up nearly two lengths on Sheena West’s Cannon Fodder (50/1) on her last appearance at Kempton over three miles. The distance of nearly three miles might prove too much for Fry’s eight year old. Although Cannon Fodder won that day, it seems unlikely that a repeat is on the card here. That victory was only her third in 28 races and I can’t imagine that she’ll follow up again.

More of interest is Rebecca Curtis’ Aurore D’Estruval (8/1). She is burdened with top weight, but was an excellent hurdler for John Quinn before switching yards. She looked in need of the run after nearly a year off last time out at Cheltenham, but that could well have tuned her up for a poke at this. At the same price, The Govaness (8/1) for Richard Newland finished second last time out behind Polly Peachum. Her only trip over this sort of distance came at Haydock last may when she was third and the seven year old mare is not without a chance here.

The others are all double figure prices, but there’s two there that I think have some potential. First of all, Kalane (16/1) for Charlie Longsdon. She was extremely impressive in a novice chase over at Huntingdon in November and has won a handicap hurdle over 2m5 before finishing third to Annie Power at Punchestown. A faller last time out at Doncaster, this may just be a confidence booster, but if she runs to the level she did last spring, she’ll be a player. (Ed: She’s set to run in a chase at Market Rasen on Friday, so is unlikely to run) Another at a price is Lily Waugh (16/1). She’s won her last three outings, although none of them over quite this far. She hasn’t exactly shone on her previous trips over this sort of distance, but she’s one in form and she gets in of bottom weight. If David Noonan takes the ride again, he’ll take another five pounds off and that could well see her in a good place. She’s also entered in the 2.25.

With doubts over the participation of both Lily Waugh and Kalane, I'd stick with The Govaness for each way purposes. Vroum Vroum Mag seems the likely winner however.

Selection The Govaness 8/1 EW

Prediction 1. Vroum Vroum Mag 2. Daylight (ha!) 3. The Govaness.

2.25 Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle(Grade 3)

A big field looks set to line up for this handicap hurdle over 2m3f. The definitive list of runners has not yet been declared, but I’ll look at a couple that will have chances. First up Lil Rockefeller (14/1), who won two starts ago at Sandown, staying on well to beat Devilment before being a good second to Camping Ground on New Years Day. He could not make an impression on the winner that day, but was well clear of the rest of the field. He won at Ascot as a juvenile, so he’s familiar with the track, but does have to shoulder a fairly hefty weight if he runs. At the other end of the spectrum there’s Theo’s Charm (8/1). The six year old will only have 10-07 on his back and he’s won his last two start in tough conditions at Plumpton. He’s got an excellent record in this sort of going, with three wins and two places. He does have a step up in trip to worry about, but I don’t think that’ll be too big a problem.

Also near the head of the market is Rock the Kasbah (7/1) for Phillip Hobbs. He ran on strongly in November to beat Aerlite Supreme at Haydock and loves these conditions. He’s never ran at Ascot before, but Hobbs will have him primed for this and I’d imagine he’ll give a good account of himself. Zulu Oscar (10/1) is set to go for Harry Fry, having won well at the Christmas meeting at Kempton. This is tougher, but Un Beau Roman, who was well behind that day, has won again since and he’s another who will thrive in conditions. Baron Alco (14/1) comes here in excellent form for Gary Moore, with three wins since the summer. He was well behind Lil Rockefeller in the spring, but seems to have turned the corner since then and won three on the bounce. All those races were in Class 3 company, so he’s making a step up, but the Moore yard is in pretty good shape and I think Baron Alco is a good horse.

Nicky Henderson has quite a few entries, Theinval (18/1), Kilcrea Vale (9/1), Captain Conan (20/1) and Sugar Baron (16/1). Of those Kilcrea Vale is the one that would interest me. A winner twice before falling on his latest appearance, this six year old has looked good so far. He was leading when he fell and it’s hard to say whether he would’ve gone on to win it, but he certainly was right up there with a chance. If he hasn’t suffered any mishaps from that, he will be a player here. Theinval has won valuable handicap hurdles in the past, but mainly on better ground and you’d have to worry about his ability to handle softer conditions in combination with top weight. Captain Conan hasn’t been seen for nearly 700 days and I can’t see him doing much here. Sugar Baron would need to make a big improvement from Boxing Day to contend here.

Value at Risk (9/1) is entered for Dan Skelton, having come down on both his previous chase starts. This will obviously be used as a confidence booster, so I’m not expecting him to set the world alight, but at the same time, the seven year old is no slouch and could give a good account. Willie Mullins has Petite Parisienne (18/1) entered and if she runs, she could be anything. Only a five year old, so there’s plenty of improvement in her yet, she disappointed last time out at Sandown despite being second favourite. But she has a good record in the conditions and could go well. Rayvin Black (20/1) won well at the start of the year, but this is a step up for him and he could struggle.

At this stage I’d take two against the field and those two would be Lil Rockefeller and Baron Alco, both at 14/1 each way.

3.00 Clarence House Chase (Grade 1)

The sole Grade One race on Saturday comes from Ascot and it’s the Clarence House Chase at 3pm. It’s usually a good measure for the Champion Chase at the Festival. The last three winners all going on to win the QMCC, although Sprinter Sacre’s win in 2013 was at Cheltenham after snow forced the race to be moved. Since the race was upgraded to a Grade One in 2007, it has been won by eight year olds five times out of eight runnings and never by a horse older than eight. Six winners have been French bred, while all eight winners had previously posted at Racing Post Rating above 160 (Seven of them having been rated above 169 in the season) and seven winners were rated above 165. Last time out winners do well, seven out of eight having won last time out and six out of eight had previously won a Grade One Chase.

As it stands (Wednesday) seven are declared for the Clarence House Chase, with Un de Sceaux (8/13) the odds-on favourite. Willie Mullins’ charge is a very good horse, but he’s a risky jumper as attested by his record of run six, won four, fallen two. If he turns up and stays on his feet, he wins, that’s as simple as it is, really. His latest effort at Leopardstown on the 27th, he was in the lead and going well when he came down, but it is worth to note that the horse got back up and despite losing a lot of ground, ran past the post first. For all intents and purposes, he is the class act in the field and if he stays on his feet, he’ll win. But that IF is sizeable enough that you wouldn’t back him, certainly not at the prices quoted. He is the only eight your old in the lineup and rated at 168, so ticks those two stats boxes.

Second in the betting is the ten year old Sire De Grugy (5/2). Gary Moore’s charge is having something of a revival this year, having won the Tingle Creek before coming second to Sprinter Sacre in the Desert Orchid. But for all that, he’s not the same horse he once was. His Tingle Creek victory was not without luck, his jump at the last severely hampering Special Tiara. That race had cut up anyway, with both Simonsig and Un de Sceaux pulling out, so it’s a bit of a hollow victory. To win this race again as a ten year old will take some doing, but if Un de Sceaux doesn’t run, there will be every opportunity for him to overturn the stats. He is the highest rated horse at 169, so on that front he should have no worries.

That elsewhere could well be Vibrato Valtat (11/1). Paul Nicholls’ grey beat Sire De Grugy in the Haldon Gold Cup, but subsequently finished third behind his rival on two occasions. Nicholls has mooted a step up in trip for the seven year old, but he stays over 2 miles here. Interesting to see that Noel Fehily takes the ride and he’s won both his rides on Vibrato Valtat. He won three valuable novice chases last season (the Henry VIII, the Wayward Lad & the Kingmaker) and certainly has the ability to do well. It’s just a question of will he be able to keep up with the front two in the market. He certainly makes more appeal on EW terms than the others.

The two others in the race are Simply Ned (20/1) and Traffic Fluide (25/1) and I hate to say it, but I don’t think that those two are good enough to compete Simply Ned had his change last time out when Un de Sceaux went over, but lost out to Flemenstar and you’d have to think that he would struggle to overturn any of these here. Traffic Fluide meanwhile is on seasonal reappearance and is probably more one for the future.

Selection Vibrato Valtat EW @ 11/1

Prediction 1. Un de Sceaux 2. Vibrato Valtat 3. Sire de Grugy