Cheltenham Preview - Arkle Trophy

2.05 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase (2m)

Douvan 4/6. L’Ami Serge 8/1, Vaniteux 10/1, Ar Mad 16/1, Garde La Victorie 16/1, 20/1 bar (Best prices according to Oddschecker)

Trends:

Positives

The highest rated hurdler

Won or placed at the Cheltenham Festival before (notably a novice hurdle)

Ran in the November Novices’ Chase, Henry VIII Novices’ Chase or Kingmaker Novices’ Chase

Trained by Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls

Negatives

Not officially rated 142+ over hurdles

Front runners

Five-year-olds

Likely to start at 12-1+

Douvan is the hot favourite here and for obvious reasons. He won the Supreme last year in emphatic fashion and has since made the transition to chasing without any problems. He beat off long time rival Sizing John by 18-lengths in a four runner field at Leopardstown over the festive period in what looked like it would be a competitive race on paper. Ttebob challenged Douvan for much of the early lead, but Willie Mullins’ charge was clearly a class above. The only worry is that he does take a risk with his fences sometimes and although he is yet to come down, there have been times where it’s been very close. At odds-on though, he’s no price for an ante-post bet and we look elsewhere for something to take him on or even finish second at an EW price.

Nicky Henderson has an excellent record in the race and he is likely to be double handed with Vaniteux and L’Ami Serge. The latter could only managed a fourth in the Supreme against Douvan, but made all in terrible conditions to cruise up at Plumpton on his chase debut. He followed that up with an easy win in a small field at Wetherby, making the most of another heavy track. He jumped well on that occasion, cleverly at times, and looks like a good one. Henderson is thought to hold him in high regard though and if it comes up soft, he’ll be right in with a chance. Vaniteux won on Chase debut at Kempton, beating Qewy and subsequent winner Regal Encore in pretty impressive fashion. But he couldn’t follow that up and was overturned by Ar Mad at the same track a month later. He lost nothing in defeat, the difference at the line being only a neck and his jumping and shape does suggest that he’s a proper chaser. But unlike the first two contenders, he never reached the top of the game over hurdles and he’ll need to show that he can mix it with them over the larger obstacles.

Ar Mad was a distant 6th on his chase debut, but has won three on the trot since then, including racing off into the distance to take the Henry VIII Novices chase at Sandown. He surprised them all that day and they didn’t give him as easy a lead the next time out at Kempton, but he still beat Vaniteux by a neck, battling back after being headed on the run in. It’s a concern though that Gary Moore’s charge has never run at the festival or even at Cheltenham at all and the hill could well hit him like an emergency break if he tries to shoot off the front again. He doesn’t fit the trends either, being a fairly mediocre hurdler as well as a front runner. There have also been concerns about him going left handed and perhaps he is better swerved.

Perhaps more of interest is Garde La Victoire for Phillip Hobbs. A winner in all three of his chase starts, he saw off a number of subsequent winners on debut at Uttoxeter before winning the November Novices Chase at Cheltenham. It was a hard fought victory that day, and his jumping remains sketchy at times, but he has an excellent record at Cheltenham (including winning the Greatwood Hurdle). If Hobbs has ironed out the kinks, then he remains with potential to be there at the finish.

Of the others in the betting, Shaneshill and Killultagh Vic are unlikely to run in this and more likely to head to the JLT. Sizing John also has that option and I can imagine connections are tired of finishing behind Douvan now and perhaps a step up in trip can bring some change in fortunes. The Game Changer has three Grade Three’s to his name, but I don’t think he’s up to this sort of level. I like Ttebbob and I don’t think he ran true to form at Leopardstown, but he’s yet to prove he’s up to this sort of challenge. Paul Nicholls usually has a good record in the race, but neither Bouvreuil or Sirabad have looked like they are going to win this.

Frankly, I struggle to see past Douvan here. He’s really impressed me in his chase starts so far and although he does take a risk with his fences sometimes, I think he really is the one to beat here. I expect some betting firms will push him out on the day, to draw customers in and he’s no bet as the market stands right now. L’Ami Serge shortened two points after his Wetherby win and you’d think the value is gone from that as well now. Furthermore, I have concerns about his ability to compete on good ground. A strongly run race could perhaps suit Garde La Victoire sitting off the pace and he does have an excellent record around Cheltenham, so if his jumping is a bit better, he could be a player at 16/1.

SELECTION: Garde La Victoire 16/1 EW

PREDICTION: 1. Douvan 2. Garde La Victoire 3.Vaniteux

For my preview of the Supreme Novices, click here