Lanzarote Hurdle Preview

Lanzarote Hurdle Preview

Kempton 14:35 2m5f - Class 1 for 4YO plus

Expected going: Soft-Heavy in Places

By @Redgameracer - For http://www.horsetipping.co.uk/

The William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle, as it is fully called, is a race with a long history. Run for the first time in 1978 over two miles, the race was extended in 2007 to two miles and five furlongs. Although still run under the same moniker, the new Lanzarote was, for obvious reasons, nothing like the old one. As of 2013, it is a listed race and has been won by the likes of Saphir Du Rheu and Tea For Two.

Looking at the history of the race since 2007, it becomes apparent that this is a race where young horses do well. Five out of eight runnings were won by six year olds, with the other races being won by five, seven and eight year olds. The winning weight has never been higher than 11-07 and most winners have been under eleven stone.  Horses rated between 130-140 have the best record with five wins out of 8 and those rated over 140 were mainly ridden by claimers. Finally, the last six winners have gone off at odds between 9/2 and 8/1. Kempton is not a particularly punishing track, but with the going likely to be soft, we’ll need a horse that stays the trip. With that in mind, we’ll have a look at the eleven declared runners (as of Thursday) and see what could win.

At the top of the market, at the time of writing, sits Ibis du Rheu (9/2 general). As you might imagine, this five year old is a half-brother to Saphir Du Rheu, winner of this race in 2014 and the only five year old to do so. He’s only been seen three times since joining Paul Nicholls yard and didn’t make much of an impression in his first two runs (6th and 4th, well off the pace). But he returned to show something of his ability on Hennesy day when he was second by a head to Royal Guardsman, finishing strongly, suggesting that this extra test of stamina is not beyond him. The addition of headgear seems to have brought some improvement and if retained for this race, he could be a player. Paul Nicholls’ yard is not in great shape though. Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride.

Bivouac (9/2) is vying for joint favouritism at the top off the market. He has gone up seven pounds in the ratings after his win at Huntingdon where he stayed on strongly to fend of the challenge of Ruacana and also had two subsequent winners behind on that day. The five year old is entering unexplored territory, but two extra furlongs should not be beyond him. Nicky Henderson has a great record over hurdles at Kempton with a strike rate of 28% and if the gelding can make the step up in trip, Henderson could add to that. Noel Fehily takes the ride once again.

Unowhatimeanharry (Non-Runner) is unbeaten over hurdles since joining Harry Fry and it’s no surprise to see him installed at the second favourite. He made the step up to win a Grade 2 race last time out over three miles and it’s interesting to see him dropped back in trip. He has more experience to count on and as a proven stayer, he should enjoy the conditions. Fry has a 43% strike rate over hurdles at Kempton, with seven wins from sixteen runners in the last three years. I have to admit I don’t know enough about the jockey, who claims seven, to say if that will help or hinder his chances.

Westren Warrior (5/1) loves a slog in a bog as attested by his win at Lingfield last time out. Only two finished that day, so it’s hard to assess the form, but his second behind Singlefarmpayment previous stands up pretty well, the winner having gone in again since. Proven to stay and with a fondness for tough races, any additional rain will supplement his chances of success. The question remains if this comes too soon, with his previous run only nineteen days ago, but he does only have to carry an even ten stone. Will Kennedy is back on board and he seems to get on well with the horse.

Yala Enki (6/1) is back down in trip from his fifth in the Fixed Brush Hurdle and this six year old is an interesting proposition. Pretty unexposed with only three races in England and running with a low weight of 10-03, it would be no surprise to see Venetia Williams’ gelding run a big race. He won impressively by sixteen lengths on his seasonal reappearance and if the 49 day break has freshened him up, he’ll be a threat. Charlie Deutsch claims a useful five pounds, which should help.

David Pipe has two runners in the race, but both Dell’Arca (16/1) and Gevrey Chambertin (14/1) have to carry 11 stone plus if they are to win the race. The former has been well held on his previous two starts over fences and reverts back to hurdles here today. There’s been nothing in his hurdles form to suggest he could run away with this one and I’ll steer well clear. The latter is more interesting. David Noonan claims a useful five pounds to bring his racing weight under eleven and his win last time out was pretty impressive. The handicapper promptly slapped another nine pounds on him, but the eight year old does like a good slog through the mud. His first preference is at Chepstow though, so he's not very likely to run.

Top weight is Brother Tedd (10/1) for Phillip Hobbs and Richard Johnson, the only course and distance winner in the company. He was impressive when he beat Silvionaco Conti on his seasonal reappearance, but couldn’t follow up on that when coming third to Rock On Ruby at Ascot. He was coming in with every chance, but was one paced on the run in and lost the place at the line. Richard Johnson takes the ride, but history suggests he’ll have a tough task

That just leaves three at the bottom of the market. Un Ace (16/1) for Kim Bailey will have a tough task off 144 and is arguably a much better chaser than hurdler. He’s reverted back over hurdles this season, but hasn’t made much of an impression despite coming second at Aintree last time out. He was still eight lengths of the pace though and never seemed like catching the winner. Deep Trouble (40/1) has failed to complete his last three starts and is unlikely to be up there this time as well. That leaves us with last years runner up Little Boy Boru (22/1). He is out of handicap by five this time, but was last year as well. Harry Bannister has swapped his five pound claim from that time for only three on Saturday. It seems a long shot for him to repeat last years efforts.

In closing, it’s a desperatly competitive race with the top four in the market tightly grouped. If you’re looking for a bit of value, Yala Enki ticks all the boxes at 8/1 with 10-03 in the weights and he’s a six year old. Bivouac and Westren Warrior would be the main danger, with the latter taken for the forecast.