1.30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (2m 1/2f)
Min 6/4, Altior 7/1, Yorkhill 8/1, Buveur D’Air 12/1, Yanworth 16/1, Bellshill 16/1, bar 20/1 (Best prices according to Oddschecker)
Trends:
Positives
Trained in Ireland
Three runs or more over hurdles
Won last two starts
Front runners
The Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner
Contested last season’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson
Owned by J P McManus
Negatives
Beaten last time out
Not run during the last 45 days
Ran on the Flat
Min is the hot favourite for the Supreme Novices hurdle and it’s easy to see why. The five year old has been a hot topic ever since the National Hunt season started. We had to wait a while to finally see him out, but he was imperious in his eventual appearance, romping home by fourteen lengths at Punchestown in soft ground in a maiden hurdle. He followed up with a win in the Grade Two Moscow Flyer at the same venue in worse conditions, following in the steps of Douvan (sired by the same stallion) and Vautour, who both went on to win the Supreme. Ruby Walsh sent him to the front early in both races and the five year old gradually pulled away from the competition. He hasn’t come under pressure yet and that is a concern. In all honesty, he hasn’t had a lot to beat and he looks pretty keen to get on with things. The value has long gone from his price and the odds quoted at the moment are frankly, too short, for a horse that hasn’t even ran enough races to get a rating. If you’re one of the lucky ones (or thousands if Twitter is to be believed) sitting on a 25/1 betslip, you’re in a good place. If not, then you’re too late to the party now.
Altior is unbeaten in four runs over hurdles so far this season, including a win in the Grade Two Supreme Trail race at Cheltenham in November. He only narrowly beat Maputo that day, who finished lame and subsequently had to be retired. That’s obviously not the most endearing of form, but his subsequent thirteen length romp over Open Eagle on King George day was impressive. Nicky Henderson does have a good record in the race, but the fact that he struggled at Cheltenham puts me off though and he’ll need more to beat the impressive Min.
Yorkhill is the other likely horse for Willie Mullins, but he may yet turn up in the Neptune. He has got the speed to run over the minimum trip, but has also won over 2m4 in heavy ground. The way he finished at Sandown in his latest 2m effort seems to suggest that 2m4 is his better distance, but he has won more Grade 1 novice hurdles over two miles than Min, so that gives you something to think about.
Henderson also has Buveur D’Air and this is perhaps the more promising of the two chancers. He was impressive on his only novice hurdle win to date on Hennessy weekend when he beat Wait for Me by eleven lengths. That one has gone in again since, as has After Hours, another who was behind him that day. I like his chances, but we haven’t seen a whole lot of him yet. Henderson is well known for wrapping up his horses in cotton wool, but I’d be more appeased to see him have another run. Of course, if he wins that in similar fashion, the 12/1 on offer will disappear mighty fast.
Another Willie Mullie horse features near the top, although Bellshill is more likely to run in the Neptune on Wednesday. He’s won three races over hurdles, including one over 2m, but his last two victories have been over the longer trip. He does have the speed for a two-mile trip, but he’s also as short at 3/1 to win the Neptune. Not likely to feature.
Another who has similar question marks is Yanworth with trainer Alan King suggesting he may yet step up in trip. He is another who has quotes for the Neptune, as short as 8/1. Should he turn up in the Supreme, I don’t think there’ll be much questions about his ability. He’s shown in three starts over hurdles that there’s plenty to like about him. He also seems to only ever do just enough and there might yet be more improvement in him. But with doubts remaining over which race he’s going to turn up in, it seems foolish to lump on until Alan King makes up his mind.
At bigger prices, there’s a few Gigginstown horses that interest me. Tombstone is still as big as 20’s in places (Will Hill at the time of writing), but also as short as 12/1 in others. He was second to Long Dog by ¾ of a length in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on the 27th of December and the winner of that seems likely to be Rich Ricci’s runner for the Neptune. Tombstone brings an excellent pedigree to the table, he is sired by Robin des Champs, and readily beat another Ricci/Mullins horse in Pylonthepressure on hurdles debut at Fairyhouse. If you can get the offered 20/1 I make that a pretty decent EW bet. Petit Mouchoir and Disko are also of interest, although both may want further than the minimum trip.
Woodland Opera looked interesting after his maiden win at Navan, beating Coney Island, but the former fell out the back of the telly in Future Champions, although the latter did win impressively on Boxing Day. Bachasson was one who did well in the summer, winning four on the trot before Long Dog lowered his colours as well. He seems a bit of a summer horse, but if the conditions are good, he could spring a little bit of a surprise. As for the English outsiders, Paul Nicholls has both Modus and Le Prezien. The former was highly touted, but has failed to impress so far, although it wouldn’t surprise me if they are trying to keep his mark low. The latter won twice after being a close second to Yanworth and was especially impressive at Doncaster winning readily by nineteen lengths. Moon Racer is still being quoted, but I can’t see much from the Champion Bumper winner having been out injured for most of the season so far.
In closing, Min is the hot favourite, but as far as ante-post goes, the value has long gone from his price. It could well be that he is the best on the day, but there’s still question marks and if I was going to back him, I’d wait for the day of the race. If you can get a 20/1 E/W on Tombstone, I think I think you’ve got a good bet and Buveur D’Air is another interesting one at 12/1.
SELECTION: Tombstone @ 20/1 EW
PREDICTION: 1. Min 2. Tombstone 3. Buveur D’Air
No comments:
Post a Comment