By @redgameracer
Last year, the Wednesday saw one of the biggest cheers in Cheltenham history when Sprinter Sacre returned victorious after claiming the Champion Chase. The Black Aeroplane has since been retired, robbing us of the chance to see him take on Douvan in this years Champion chase. But before we get there, there's plenty of interesting races to cast our eyes over
Neptune Novices' Hurdle
The Neptune Novices Hurdle over two mile five is an often misunderstood race. Although it's over a longer trip than the Supreme, it's often more of a speed test than the stamina test that is the Supreme. It's usually run at a slightly slower pace and turns into a bit of a sprint at the end. A turn of foot could well be crucial.
At the top of the market sits Neon Wolf (15/8), an even more solid favourite since Finian's Oscar was ruled out. He's been impressive in his starts so far and has the requisite turn of foot that suits the race. His trainer seems to think he'd be best suited by softish ground and it is true that his only run on good to soft has resulted in the smallest margin of victory, but he won with plenty in hand. Bacardys (3/1) is next in and he was impressive in winning the Deloitte. He quickened impressively, despite jumping slightly left on the run-in and should have a good chance. Lets Dance (7/1) and Death Duty (7/1) are contenders if they pitch up here, but they are more likely to go to other races.
I've had a small ante-post multiple containing Invitation Only (14/1) and Graham Wylie was very confident on him at the start of the season, but he hasn't shone since then and would need to have really been inspired in order to be involved here. If he is at his best, he'd have a very good chance of springing a surprise though. Willoughby Court (10/1) would have an excellent chance if he could replicate the form of his Warwick romp. He hacked up by eight lengths over Gayebury despite giving him four lbs. That horse has since bolted up in a Pertemps Qualifier by thirteen lengths and the fourth has also won. If one of the shorter priced ones fails to fire, then Ben Pauling's charge should have a good chance of picking up the pieces. If you want one at a big price, you might want to have a look at Wiliam Henry (20/1). He was a good second to Wholestone over C&D in January and could come on for that.
Selections: Willoughby Court 10/1 EW (Various)
RSA Novices' Chase
Next up is the RSA Chase, which can often be a gruelling race as shown last year when we sadly lost No More Heroes (and More Of That bled). Blaklion was a very game winner that day, grinding it out bravely up the hill and you need a tough cookie to win this race.
With that in mind, I'm going to strike off the first two in the market, Might Bite (4/1) and Alpha Des Obeaux (13/2). The former is by Scorpion, who has imparted some of his 'eccentricities' onto his offspring. He also has struggled at Cheltenham, having won a weak hurdle before being well beaten the next two times at the track. He has been impressive this season, with Premier Bond franking the form of his first win and he was well ahead at Kempton when he came down. But therein lies the problem. He doesn't jump entirely straightforward and in a festival race that can be a killer. At the prices, I'm happy to let him go. Alpha Des Obeaux is a very good horse, but he has bled twice this season and that is a huge concern. Mouse Morris is probably one of the best target trainers around, but I couldn't justify backing a horse in a tough race like this one with bleeding issues. That brings in Acapella Bourgeois (7/1), who is a likeable horse, but you can ask questions about the form of his last win, when he was granted a very easy lead. He will also need plenty of give in the ground, so unless the rain comes, it's unlikely that he'll be winning this in my opinion. I liked Bellshill (12/1) at the start of the season, but his jumping issues are evident and he's not shown up at his best at Cheltenham in the past. Punchestown would seem to be more his venue.
Plenty of the ones further down the market have entries elsewhere and are not guaranteed to run here, so that really leaves me with two. Royal Vacation (12/1) is the first of those. He was behind Might Bite at Kempton when that one came down, and would probably be flattered by that win, but he wasn't next time out at Cheltenham over the shorter trip. He's shown that he's no slouch, jumps well in the main and he has form at the track. Faster ground may be a concern, but that's something you'd be including when you get 16s. But he's not my selection. Instead, I'll go with Whisper (8/1) for Nicky Henderson. I know he's probably on the old side for this race, but he shines at Cheltenham. He's won a Coral Cup and ran in two World Hurdles before going chasing and he really has gone well over fences. He jumps well and seems to get along really well with new jockey Davy Russell. He has a fine record around Cheltenham, four wins and a place from nine runs here and he will be suited by better ground that we're likely to get. At 9/1 he's a very fair price and I can't really see him out of the first three.
Selection: Whisper 8/1 E/W (Various)
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
Next we go handicapping over hurdles and a maximum field of 26 is bound to line up here for the prize pot. Tombstone (5/1) is a short price favourite for this, having been mentioned for three races this festival, but it seems this is the one they've settled for. He could be well ahead of his mark, but you don't need me to find you the obvious ones. Favourites do have a poor record in the last ten years though, so keep that in mind.
I do like a different one of Gordon Elliot's though. Automated (11/1) seems to have been aimed at this race, having been put away after his last win in December. He swept around the field fairly easily that day and stayed on well to land the spoils over 2m4. He had a busy year last year, so a break will have done him good. According to Elliot he loves passing horses, so expect a similar sort of ride as last time and he could be Elliot's plan B.
I'd be very interested if Taquin De Seuil (22/1) pitches up here. He loves it around Cheltenham and although I'm not normally one for chasers going back over hurdles, he ran a decent race behind Ballyoptic on his seasonal return over hurdles. He is getting on a bit, but at the same time, he showed in the BetVictor Gold Cup in November that there's still plenty of life left in him. He's only run six times over hurdles in his life, but has won three of those and if he was to go here, he could run a mighty race. The 22/1 is available with NRNB and at that price it's well worth a try.
Selections: Automated 11/1 E/W (32Red & 888Sport) & Taquin De Seuil 22/1 E/W (32Red & 888Sport)
Queen Mother Champion Chase
The main event of day two will most likely be a procession. Douvan (2/7) will probably be one of the shortest priced favourites of the week and with an unbeaten streak of 13 races, it's not difficult to see why. His smallest margin of victory in those was just under four lengths, eased down, on only his second start and he's rarely been troubled over fences since. He should be far too good for these and we'll just watch him and enjoy the spectacle.
There will be value in behind though. Altior (5/2) is unlikely to run, as are Un de Sceaux (8/1), Uxizandre (25/1) and Vroum Vroum Mag (20/1). But as I've pointed out in my antepost blog here, for me the value lies with Special Tiara (20/1, 5/1 w/o Douvan) and Gods Own (14/1, 3/1 w/o Douvan). The latter also has an Ryanair entry and would be interesting if he turned up there, but his two mile record is slightly better and he's much better in the spring than in the autumn/winter. Of the two though, I would prefer Special Tiara. Henry de Bromhead's charge was a narrowly beaten into third in this race last year, but has won the only time he's raced this season on his preferred good ground. He saw off Sir Valentino in the Desert Orchid that day and although the form of the race isn't great, this horse always come alive here and especially on decent spring ground. It would depend on the shape of the final declarations for the race on whether you'd prefer to take the E/W outright, or without Douvan, but either way, he should be bang there in the race for second.
Shame it'll be probably a fence behind the winner.
Selection: Special Tiara 20/1 E/W (Will Hill), 5/1 w/o Douvan (365)
Cross Country Chase
This is one of my favourite races of the festival. It's something completely different and unique and the different obstacles make it a completely different test of jumping for all involved. You usually want a horse that is prominent, knows the track and jumps very well.
Since Josies Orders was ruled out, Cantlow (11/4) has been pretty steady at the top of the market. He won well here in December, but was shockingly overturned in January by the French Raider Urgent de Gregaine (since ruled out of this race). He seems to have improved immensely for the switch to Enda Bolger, but to me he's still a rogue. He can be moody, has refused to race in the past and as such is not one for me to be backing with any confidence. In the same colours Cause of Causes (4/1) has been very well supported since coming over to school a few times. He has plenty of festival form, but not over this course and was beaten 43 lengths on his only appearance over this track in January. He was well back that day and he's not one to race prominently. He's obviously talented, but perhaps not suited to this race. The third favourite also wears the same gold and green hoops. Auvergnat (8/1) would've been right there in January if he hadn't unseated, but he only had a featherweight to carry that day. He's not one to carry larger weights due this small stature and I couldn't have him off levels. Sausalito Sunrise (14/1), First Lieutentant (16/1) and Third Intention (25/1) were all useful regular chasers, but do not look like likely contenders in this discipline.
The regular Cross Country specialists, Quantativeeasing (14/1), Any Currency (14/1), Bless The Wings (14/1) and Ballybroker Bridge (33/1) are all getting a bit long in the tooth, although the former would be interesting in his best form (third last year and then went on to beat Cantlow at Punchestown). The latter of that foursome would be interesting if he price stayed that high, he's not got bad form (third to Auvergnat last time out, second to Cantlow before that and fifth in this last year) and if he turns up fully fit he's got an e/w squeak.
But my selection will be one of my favourite horses in training. Valadom (33/1) likes to race prominently, has plenty of experience around the track and is an excellent jumper of any kind of obstacle. His record around the track is solid, if unspectacular, reading 4564. The last 4 is the key one though. Where previously he had struggled to come home, the trip stretching his stamina to the limit, he galloped up the hill last time under Jamie Bargary and wasn't far behind third placed Any Currency. Unlike most of these, he's only an eight year old and still has scope for improvement. He'll most likely set off in front and if he's not given too hard a time contesting that lead, he'll have something left to come up the hill. Jamie Bargary knows him pretty well, having been in to school him and having ridden him to victory at Bangor in November.
Selection: Valadom 33/1 E/W (Various)
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Not a race I usually have a great interest in. A number of these also have entries in the Triump later in the week, so it's a bit of guesswork involved. Long Call and Divin Bere (both 6/1) sit at the top of the market and the former was impressive in winning what was essentially a nothing race at Hereford, on the bridle, before being a well beaten second behind leading Triumph hope Master Blueeyes. But his Irish form is nothing to write home about, so he goes on the scrapheap. Divin Bere however, did beat Master Blueeyes, by a neck, in his only race this season, but his lack of experience could be an issue. Most runners have had a few runs before winning this. Dinaria Des Obeaux (12/1) is probably a bit high in the weights for this (and might yet go for the Triumph) and the same could be said for Project Bluebook (14/1). Domperignon Du Lys (10/1) should have a cracking chance, but Nicky Henderson hasn't got the greatest record in the race.
Instead, I'll go for last years winning trainer, Paul Nicholls, with Dreamcatching (10/1). He's got a very nice mark and Stan Sheppard is booked to take five off again like the last time out. He won well that day, although it was a bit of a nothing race. He was fancied on debut behind Charli Parcs, but didn't run a good race there. He settled much better on his second start and duly obliged and the noises from Ditcheat are very positive about his chances.
Selection: Dreamcatching 10/1 E/W (Various)
Champion Bumper
As if a juvenile handicap isn't tricky enough, we end the day with a bumper that could throw up anything. Very solid at the top of the market is Carter McKay (10/3), but there is some concerns for him. First of all, his best performances seem to have come on deeper ground and he's not guaranteed to get that here. Better ground could be an issue for him. More depressingly, rumours are abound that his owner wants to ride him. While fully licensed and etc, he's not exactly known for his skill aboard a horse and that would put me off massively.
There's been plenty of talk about Western Ryder (8/1), Someday (8/1) and Cause Toujours (10/1), but thisis a race where I'd want a big price to get involved. Imperial Eloquence (25/1) would be one at a price that I like. He was third behind Poetic Rhythm in a Listed bumper here in November and although most of the horses in that race have since been over hurdles, he's been kept, seemingly for this race. He was second behind Western Ryder next time out, only beaten two lengths, but showed signs of greenness that day and he could well improve for returning to Cheltenham. He is well regarded in the yard and Fergal has had some excellent bumper winners this year. He's a much bigger price than Western Ryder, despite only two lengths in it, so represents a fair bit of value.
Selection: Imperial Eloquence 25/1 E/W (Various)
Neptune Novices' Hurdle
The Neptune Novices Hurdle over two mile five is an often misunderstood race. Although it's over a longer trip than the Supreme, it's often more of a speed test than the stamina test that is the Supreme. It's usually run at a slightly slower pace and turns into a bit of a sprint at the end. A turn of foot could well be crucial.
At the top of the market sits Neon Wolf (15/8), an even more solid favourite since Finian's Oscar was ruled out. He's been impressive in his starts so far and has the requisite turn of foot that suits the race. His trainer seems to think he'd be best suited by softish ground and it is true that his only run on good to soft has resulted in the smallest margin of victory, but he won with plenty in hand. Bacardys (3/1) is next in and he was impressive in winning the Deloitte. He quickened impressively, despite jumping slightly left on the run-in and should have a good chance. Lets Dance (7/1) and Death Duty (7/1) are contenders if they pitch up here, but they are more likely to go to other races.
I've had a small ante-post multiple containing Invitation Only (14/1) and Graham Wylie was very confident on him at the start of the season, but he hasn't shone since then and would need to have really been inspired in order to be involved here. If he is at his best, he'd have a very good chance of springing a surprise though. Willoughby Court (10/1) would have an excellent chance if he could replicate the form of his Warwick romp. He hacked up by eight lengths over Gayebury despite giving him four lbs. That horse has since bolted up in a Pertemps Qualifier by thirteen lengths and the fourth has also won. If one of the shorter priced ones fails to fire, then Ben Pauling's charge should have a good chance of picking up the pieces. If you want one at a big price, you might want to have a look at Wiliam Henry (20/1). He was a good second to Wholestone over C&D in January and could come on for that.
Selections: Willoughby Court 10/1 EW (Various)
RSA Novices' Chase
Next up is the RSA Chase, which can often be a gruelling race as shown last year when we sadly lost No More Heroes (and More Of That bled). Blaklion was a very game winner that day, grinding it out bravely up the hill and you need a tough cookie to win this race.
With that in mind, I'm going to strike off the first two in the market, Might Bite (4/1) and Alpha Des Obeaux (13/2). The former is by Scorpion, who has imparted some of his 'eccentricities' onto his offspring. He also has struggled at Cheltenham, having won a weak hurdle before being well beaten the next two times at the track. He has been impressive this season, with Premier Bond franking the form of his first win and he was well ahead at Kempton when he came down. But therein lies the problem. He doesn't jump entirely straightforward and in a festival race that can be a killer. At the prices, I'm happy to let him go. Alpha Des Obeaux is a very good horse, but he has bled twice this season and that is a huge concern. Mouse Morris is probably one of the best target trainers around, but I couldn't justify backing a horse in a tough race like this one with bleeding issues. That brings in Acapella Bourgeois (7/1), who is a likeable horse, but you can ask questions about the form of his last win, when he was granted a very easy lead. He will also need plenty of give in the ground, so unless the rain comes, it's unlikely that he'll be winning this in my opinion. I liked Bellshill (12/1) at the start of the season, but his jumping issues are evident and he's not shown up at his best at Cheltenham in the past. Punchestown would seem to be more his venue.
Plenty of the ones further down the market have entries elsewhere and are not guaranteed to run here, so that really leaves me with two. Royal Vacation (12/1) is the first of those. He was behind Might Bite at Kempton when that one came down, and would probably be flattered by that win, but he wasn't next time out at Cheltenham over the shorter trip. He's shown that he's no slouch, jumps well in the main and he has form at the track. Faster ground may be a concern, but that's something you'd be including when you get 16s. But he's not my selection. Instead, I'll go with Whisper (8/1) for Nicky Henderson. I know he's probably on the old side for this race, but he shines at Cheltenham. He's won a Coral Cup and ran in two World Hurdles before going chasing and he really has gone well over fences. He jumps well and seems to get along really well with new jockey Davy Russell. He has a fine record around Cheltenham, four wins and a place from nine runs here and he will be suited by better ground that we're likely to get. At 9/1 he's a very fair price and I can't really see him out of the first three.
Selection: Whisper 8/1 E/W (Various)
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
Next we go handicapping over hurdles and a maximum field of 26 is bound to line up here for the prize pot. Tombstone (5/1) is a short price favourite for this, having been mentioned for three races this festival, but it seems this is the one they've settled for. He could be well ahead of his mark, but you don't need me to find you the obvious ones. Favourites do have a poor record in the last ten years though, so keep that in mind.
I do like a different one of Gordon Elliot's though. Automated (11/1) seems to have been aimed at this race, having been put away after his last win in December. He swept around the field fairly easily that day and stayed on well to land the spoils over 2m4. He had a busy year last year, so a break will have done him good. According to Elliot he loves passing horses, so expect a similar sort of ride as last time and he could be Elliot's plan B.
I'd be very interested if Taquin De Seuil (22/1) pitches up here. He loves it around Cheltenham and although I'm not normally one for chasers going back over hurdles, he ran a decent race behind Ballyoptic on his seasonal return over hurdles. He is getting on a bit, but at the same time, he showed in the BetVictor Gold Cup in November that there's still plenty of life left in him. He's only run six times over hurdles in his life, but has won three of those and if he was to go here, he could run a mighty race. The 22/1 is available with NRNB and at that price it's well worth a try.
Selections: Automated 11/1 E/W (32Red & 888Sport) & Taquin De Seuil 22/1 E/W (32Red & 888Sport)
Queen Mother Champion Chase
The main event of day two will most likely be a procession. Douvan (2/7) will probably be one of the shortest priced favourites of the week and with an unbeaten streak of 13 races, it's not difficult to see why. His smallest margin of victory in those was just under four lengths, eased down, on only his second start and he's rarely been troubled over fences since. He should be far too good for these and we'll just watch him and enjoy the spectacle.
There will be value in behind though. Altior (5/2) is unlikely to run, as are Un de Sceaux (8/1), Uxizandre (25/1) and Vroum Vroum Mag (20/1). But as I've pointed out in my antepost blog here, for me the value lies with Special Tiara (20/1, 5/1 w/o Douvan) and Gods Own (14/1, 3/1 w/o Douvan). The latter also has an Ryanair entry and would be interesting if he turned up there, but his two mile record is slightly better and he's much better in the spring than in the autumn/winter. Of the two though, I would prefer Special Tiara. Henry de Bromhead's charge was a narrowly beaten into third in this race last year, but has won the only time he's raced this season on his preferred good ground. He saw off Sir Valentino in the Desert Orchid that day and although the form of the race isn't great, this horse always come alive here and especially on decent spring ground. It would depend on the shape of the final declarations for the race on whether you'd prefer to take the E/W outright, or without Douvan, but either way, he should be bang there in the race for second.
Shame it'll be probably a fence behind the winner.
Selection: Special Tiara 20/1 E/W (Will Hill), 5/1 w/o Douvan (365)
Cross Country Chase
This is one of my favourite races of the festival. It's something completely different and unique and the different obstacles make it a completely different test of jumping for all involved. You usually want a horse that is prominent, knows the track and jumps very well.
Since Josies Orders was ruled out, Cantlow (11/4) has been pretty steady at the top of the market. He won well here in December, but was shockingly overturned in January by the French Raider Urgent de Gregaine (since ruled out of this race). He seems to have improved immensely for the switch to Enda Bolger, but to me he's still a rogue. He can be moody, has refused to race in the past and as such is not one for me to be backing with any confidence. In the same colours Cause of Causes (4/1) has been very well supported since coming over to school a few times. He has plenty of festival form, but not over this course and was beaten 43 lengths on his only appearance over this track in January. He was well back that day and he's not one to race prominently. He's obviously talented, but perhaps not suited to this race. The third favourite also wears the same gold and green hoops. Auvergnat (8/1) would've been right there in January if he hadn't unseated, but he only had a featherweight to carry that day. He's not one to carry larger weights due this small stature and I couldn't have him off levels. Sausalito Sunrise (14/1), First Lieutentant (16/1) and Third Intention (25/1) were all useful regular chasers, but do not look like likely contenders in this discipline.
The regular Cross Country specialists, Quantativeeasing (14/1), Any Currency (14/1), Bless The Wings (14/1) and Ballybroker Bridge (33/1) are all getting a bit long in the tooth, although the former would be interesting in his best form (third last year and then went on to beat Cantlow at Punchestown). The latter of that foursome would be interesting if he price stayed that high, he's not got bad form (third to Auvergnat last time out, second to Cantlow before that and fifth in this last year) and if he turns up fully fit he's got an e/w squeak.
But my selection will be one of my favourite horses in training. Valadom (33/1) likes to race prominently, has plenty of experience around the track and is an excellent jumper of any kind of obstacle. His record around the track is solid, if unspectacular, reading 4564. The last 4 is the key one though. Where previously he had struggled to come home, the trip stretching his stamina to the limit, he galloped up the hill last time under Jamie Bargary and wasn't far behind third placed Any Currency. Unlike most of these, he's only an eight year old and still has scope for improvement. He'll most likely set off in front and if he's not given too hard a time contesting that lead, he'll have something left to come up the hill. Jamie Bargary knows him pretty well, having been in to school him and having ridden him to victory at Bangor in November.
Selection: Valadom 33/1 E/W (Various)
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Not a race I usually have a great interest in. A number of these also have entries in the Triump later in the week, so it's a bit of guesswork involved. Long Call and Divin Bere (both 6/1) sit at the top of the market and the former was impressive in winning what was essentially a nothing race at Hereford, on the bridle, before being a well beaten second behind leading Triumph hope Master Blueeyes. But his Irish form is nothing to write home about, so he goes on the scrapheap. Divin Bere however, did beat Master Blueeyes, by a neck, in his only race this season, but his lack of experience could be an issue. Most runners have had a few runs before winning this. Dinaria Des Obeaux (12/1) is probably a bit high in the weights for this (and might yet go for the Triumph) and the same could be said for Project Bluebook (14/1). Domperignon Du Lys (10/1) should have a cracking chance, but Nicky Henderson hasn't got the greatest record in the race.
Instead, I'll go for last years winning trainer, Paul Nicholls, with Dreamcatching (10/1). He's got a very nice mark and Stan Sheppard is booked to take five off again like the last time out. He won well that day, although it was a bit of a nothing race. He was fancied on debut behind Charli Parcs, but didn't run a good race there. He settled much better on his second start and duly obliged and the noises from Ditcheat are very positive about his chances.
Selection: Dreamcatching 10/1 E/W (Various)
Champion Bumper
As if a juvenile handicap isn't tricky enough, we end the day with a bumper that could throw up anything. Very solid at the top of the market is Carter McKay (10/3), but there is some concerns for him. First of all, his best performances seem to have come on deeper ground and he's not guaranteed to get that here. Better ground could be an issue for him. More depressingly, rumours are abound that his owner wants to ride him. While fully licensed and etc, he's not exactly known for his skill aboard a horse and that would put me off massively.
There's been plenty of talk about Western Ryder (8/1), Someday (8/1) and Cause Toujours (10/1), but thisis a race where I'd want a big price to get involved. Imperial Eloquence (25/1) would be one at a price that I like. He was third behind Poetic Rhythm in a Listed bumper here in November and although most of the horses in that race have since been over hurdles, he's been kept, seemingly for this race. He was second behind Western Ryder next time out, only beaten two lengths, but showed signs of greenness that day and he could well improve for returning to Cheltenham. He is well regarded in the yard and Fergal has had some excellent bumper winners this year. He's a much bigger price than Western Ryder, despite only two lengths in it, so represents a fair bit of value.
Selection: Imperial Eloquence 25/1 E/W (Various)
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