Cheltenham Preview - Day Four

Cheltenham Friday - Gold Cup Day
By @redgameracer

The final day of the four day extravaganza features the big one, the Gold Cup. It's a gruelling race and one of the toughest races in the calendar. But before that, there's a few cracking races to go through first.

Triumph Juvenile Hurdle

Once again a very solid favourite in the McManus colours. Defi du Seuil (9/4) has gone off favourite on all his five starts and duly obliged, including twice here. He's been teak tough in all his races, but most of those have come in ground with a bit of cut and he's unlikely to encounter that here. While he is the one that has gone and done it, he is also too short for me with the ground concerns. Charli Parcs (4/1) has been good in his sole completed starts and looked to be going close at Kempton when he came down. It's never ideal to come in on the back of a fall though, so you have to wonder how he will go ont he back off that. 

Bapaume (14/1) will have Ruby Walsh on board and after his four-timer on Thursday, he'll probably be popular, but I reckon he'll struggle to turn the form around with the horse that beat him last time. Mega Fortune (10/1) was switched to first time cheekpieces last time out and he readily dispatched his rival by three and a half lengths. Juveniles are always tricky to judge so the form could well be turned around again, but the cheek pieces readily brought out improvement for Gordon Elliot's charge and the way his week is going, he could have another one going close. As for a selections though, I'm going to take a punt at the massive price available for Evening Hush (50/1). Evan Williams' charge has finished second behind Master Blueeyes (15/2) and Defi Du Seuil, well beaten on both occasions, but she gets a lovely filly's allowance and she could be set to hit the frame at a massive price. She'll go on the ground and was a runaway winner at Aintree in a Listed juvenile race. Obviously she has something to find, but we saw last year that these juveniles can completely turn the form around.

Selection: Evening Hush 50/1 E/W (Various)

County Handicap Hurdle

As competitive a handicap as they come, the County Hurdle is an incredible tricky race to work out. There's the obvious ones, like Ivanovich Gorbatov (12/1), who won here last year on the same day in the Triumph. He's been missing out in Grade Ones this year, but drops back into a handicap in colours that have long been associated with this sort of plot job. Equally, last years Fred Winter winner, Diego Du Charmil (18/1), scooted up in a handicap in Musselburgh and should have a fair chance. Arctic Fire (25/1) has top weight, but he is a Grade One horse in a handicap. Rated 169 at his peak, he comes here off 158 after over a year off and it remains to be seen if he still has all that ability. He was second in this race in 2014 and followed that up by finished second to Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle a year later. Top weights have a poor record, but he is worth a penny or two each way at his price.

But it's the less obvious ones that we're interested in and I think I've got two that could go well at a big price. First up, Song Light (25/1) for Seamus Mullins and Kevin Jones. He comes in on a lovely mark of 135, giving him a weight of 10-03 and the jockey claims 5 lbs. He's got decent course form, having finished third in a novice hurdle here in 2015 and also third in the Greatwood Hurdle behind North Hill Harvey (8/1) earlier this season. He followed that up in February with a fourth in the Betfair, not beaten far behind Ballyandy and he has a big race in him at a big price.

The other one of interest is a McManus second string in De Name Escapes Me (25/1). He won two novice races last season, but was well beaten in a handicap at the Punchestown Festival last year. He was off the track again for a long time, before reappearing in the Betfair Hurdle and given a considerate ride by Aiden Coleman. He's still very unexposed and he gets the assistance of Jonathan Moore in the saddle, claiming three. He seems to be laid out for something and it could well be this race. At the prices, he's certainly worth an e/w punt.

Selections: Song Light 25/1 E/W (various) & De Name Escapes Me 25/1 E/W (various)

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Another red hot favourite from Ireland. Gordon Elliot has been nothing short of effusive in his praise for Death Duty (2/1) and it's easy to see why. He is as yet unbeaten over hurdles, albeit all those runs have been over two mile four. But he looks a strong stayer, who will only get better with time. Come the day, 5/2 could well be a massive price, but I'm not going to put him up at that short a price. Wholestone (15/2) is in next for Nigel Twiston-Davies. He's won three times at the track, including twice over C&D, and he was second on his other appearance here, denied only a length on that occasion. I don't think he's good enough to beat the fav, but he should go close. Augusta Kate (7/1) was running a good race when falling at the last against Death Duty last time, but I don't think she would've won. She does get the mares allowance again and that could be enough to see her run a big race. 

Looking at some value in the race, The Worlds End (10/1) is one that would interest me. He was beaten nine lengths on debut over hurdles behind Gayebury, who has since run with credit in defeat before hacking up in a Pertemps Qualifier at Chepstow. The Worlds End has racked up a three timer since then, twice at Chepstow, where he won by eleven lengths over two subsequent winners and then a three length victory over another subsequent winner. The finished off his run by beating No Hassle Hoff nine lengths at Haydock and the only horse from that race to have run again won as well. As you can see the form stacks up and at 10/1 he's a fair price to run a big race.

Selection: The Worlds End 10/1 E/W (Bet365)

Gold Cup Chase

The big one and in a field that is lacking some of the big names, through injury or otherwise, but still a very competitive race. I've got a few favourites running here and it's going to be hard to pick one out.

After a fantastic Thursday, Ruby Walsh' ride Djakadam (10/3) has been punted into favouritism for this one. He's got the form in the book, having finished second in this race in both previous runnings and he's had a clear preparation this year. He was beaten in the Lexus, but perhaps didn't get the best of rides that day. It would be nice for him to finally lose his place as the bridesmaid and be the bride, but he's too short for me.

Next in is Native River (9/2), who's been on the drift after Tizzard has had a poor festival so far. He's done nothing wrong this season and is a typical dour stayer who will gallop all day long. He's won a Hennessy and a Welsh National this season and was a good second to Minella Rocco (20/1) in the National Hunt Chase last year. I'm not sure if he has the extra bit of class needed to win a Gold Cup though. That four miler form has worked out really well this season and Minella Rocco looked to be running a very big race behind Many Clouds at Aintree when he fell at the last. He made a mistake in the Irish Gold cup which saw him part company with Aiden Coleman and it's hard to say how he would've run there. Tizzard's other runner Cue Card (5/1) does have the class and ability to win a Gold Cup and he can't have run to form in the King George when he was beaten by just over three lengths by Thistlecrack. Before that he, he absolutely hacked up at Haydock in the Betfair Chase and he's since hacked up again in the Ascot Chase over slightly shorter. If he can run to that form, or even last years form when he fell three out in this race, he will go very close. If he wins, it'll absolutely bring the house down, like Sprinter did last year.

I couldn't have More of That (14/1), having bled previously or Sizing John (8/1) who has his stamina to prove over this trip, but one I do like at a price that is far too big is Bristol De Mai (33/1). Nigel Twiston-Davies hasn't been in great form of late and his charge disappointed behind Native River last time out, but had a valid excuse as he returned lame. He absolutely bolted up at Haydock the time before that and he was second at the course in the JLT last year. He's a good jumper, especially if he's allowed to stride on and not tucked away too much. His run last time out was too bad to be true and I think he's got more to come. This price of 33/1 is too big to ignore.

Selections: Cue Card 5/1 E/W (various) & Bristol De Mai 33/1 E/W (Betfair)

Foxhunters Chase

This is a race I have very little interest in, but if you want a token selection then Pascha Du Polder (22/1) seems a big price, having run an eye catching race last year and he won a hunter chase under this same jockey at Bangor last time out.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

Another very tricky race, but I'm struggling to see past Willie Mullins first string in Battleford (8/1). He was beaten a nose by Ballyandy in last years champion bumper and again beaten into second at Aintree, but the form of that has worked out alright. He's struggled this season, only winning once and at short odds at that, but Mullins always sends a good one to this race and he has won it with the likes of Don Poli, Killultagh Vic and Sir Des Champs. His jockey claims five, which could be a big help and he's definitely one for the shortlist. 

At a bigger price, Ballyhill (66/1) could outrun his odds. He was well beaten in the Betfair Hurdle, but was possibly sacrificed in that race to make the running for his stablemate and eventual winner Ballyandy. He's been keeping very good company after winning two novice hurdles and this does represent a bit of a class drop for him. Don't get me wrong, it'll still be very competitive, but he should appreciate the ground and he's better than a 66/1 shot. I'm a big fan of his jockey Jamie Bargary and I think he's got a decent chance of hitting the frame (a few bookies are paying five places on this)

Selections: Battleford 8/1 E/W (various) & Ballyhill 66/1 E/W (SportingBet)

Grand Annual Handicap Chase

The grand finale of the Cheltenham festival is the Grand Annual Handicap Chase and the one I like here is The Game Changer (14/1). He was fourth in the Arkle last year behind Douvan and then followed that one home at Aintree and Punchestown. He's not been in great form this year, but if the better ground can eke out some improvement, he's got a decent chance of running a big race.

There's a few decent horses running in this, including Eastlake (33/1), who sprang a big priced surprise in December over this trip, former Champion Chase winner Dodging Bullets (14/1) and the ones that look to have been laid out for this race like Dandridge (9/1) and Le Prezien (7/1). Of those, I think Dodging Bullets is the most interesting one, with Noel Fehily on board, but I'll go for another one from left field in Croco Bay (33/1). He reappered behind Gardefort (33/1) at Wincanton after a break and didn't run a bad race. I think he'll have come on from that though and he's got pretty solid form having finished third in this two years ago. He fell around half-way last year, but if his jumping holds together, he'll have a chance to make the frame again.

Selections: The Game Changer 14/1 E/W (Various) & Croco Bay 33/1 E/W (Various)