Cheltenham Preview - Champion Chase

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase Preview

Red looks forward to the second of the Championship races of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival, the Champion Chase and gives his thoughts on the likely runners and their chances.

First of all, let's dispense with the preliminary's. IF Douvan (1/2 Black Type) gets there and stands up, he wins. Doing cartwheels. And you could make a pretty decent return on investment between 33 & 50% if you backed him for it. While as a horse racing fan, that makes no appeal, but as an investor it does. Sure, there's risks, he could pick up an injury, or fall at the last, but the risks are no more than any other invest 'for a 33% profit in a matter of days' strategy. As a investor, it seems like a decent risk/reward. 

But let's focus on the race. The presence of Douvan will no doubt scare of a few runners

Altior (8/1 general) is second in the market, especially with those offering a non-runner no bet concession, but his trainer has already ruled him out of the race 'unless Douvan doesn't run'. He's more likely to renew his rivalry with Min in the Arkle.

Fox Norton (8/1 Betfair) was third behind Douvan in the Arkle and has since added a handicap win and the Grade Two Schloer Chase to his bedpost, doing so rather impressively. He's now rated within 2 lbs of Douvan and has the C&D form for this race, but I struggle to see him getting close to Douvan. In the without market, his price would be too restrictive for me at 5/2, so he's a no from me.

Next in is Un de Sceaux (14/1 Betair & Betway), second last year to Sprinter Sacre. He's got the C&D form as well, having won the Arkle in 2015 and placing last year behind the resurgent Sprinter, but you'd think his participation would be unlikely given the presence of his stablemate Douvan. I do believe two miles is his best trip, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Mullins team stepped him up to two mile five for the Ryanair. But with doubts over his participation, the 7 or 8/1 available on NRNB is not enough for me to be tempted.

There's a few more to rule out. Ar Mad (25/1 Betfair) has dodged the re-arranged Clarence House at Cheltenham with doubts over his ability to go left handed and now steps up in trip at Ascot for the Ascot Chase. Both of those points would make him an unlikely runner in this for me, although I think he's a very good horse. Equally, Vroum Vroum Mag (25/1 various) is very unlikely to run in this, even as a super-sub. Sizing John (33/1) was shortened dramatically for the Ryanair after his win in the Kinloch Brae and he wouldn't want to be chasing Douvan again.

That leaves me with two who I'd expect to go for the race and give a very good account of themselves. Special Tiara (25/1 various) has finished third in the last two runnings of this race and Henry De Bromhead's ten year old always improves for better ground. He wasn't at his best, but still managed to win the Desert Orchid last time out, narrowly edging out Sir Valentino. At 25/1 he seems a very fair price for an each way bet. Even if you take him on place only or without the favourite you should be able to get a decent price.

At the same price, God's Own (25/1 various) is another who will run his race. Fourth in the race last year and second behind Un de Sceaux in the Arkle the year before, he's got a decent form line over C&D. He finished off last season in stylish fashion, with a win in the Melling Chase followed by beating Vautour in the Punchestown Champion Chase. He's another who does better in the spring, but wasn't beaten far in the Tingle Creak by Un de Sceaux. His spring form over fences though is quite good (122F411, from March - May), compared to the autumn and winter months (24217332233, October - February). The only reservation is that he might step up to the Ryanair as they've been mixing his trip a fair bit this year, but 25s is a very fair price.

No Bet:
Douvan to win (1/3)

Suggested:
Special Tiara 25/1 E/W Various
God's Own 25/1 E/W Various

As always, if you have any feedback, suggestions or just want to laugh at my choices, @redgameracer on twitter is the place to be.

Red