By @redgameracer
Thursday has some great racing for us in store, but we don't have the super stars like Vautour and Thistlecrack to keep us warm on St. Paddy's day. That said, if we can find some winners, we'll be just grand, so let's dive straight in.
JLT Novices Chase
The day starts with the JLT Novices chase and Yorkhill (11/8) is a very solid favourite. He was an impressive winner of the Neptune last year and you feel that he could've gone close in either the Champion Hurdle or the Arkle, but connections have high hopes for this one following in Vautour's footsteps as a Gold Cup horse. Like Vautour in 2015, he comes her under a bit of a cloud concerning his jumping and I think the same thing will happen. He will annihilate the competition. He schooled awkwardly over the first few last weekend, but once they started going at a pace, he was pinpoint perfect. His only potential flaw is that he is very headstrong, but if Ruby can get him settled (and no better man to do it) then he'll romp away with this. Don't get me wrong, the opposition isn't bad, but they're not in the same league. Top Notch (4/1) is a very good jumper and has shown time and time again that he's not to be underestimated, but I don't think he's got that extra bit of Gold Standard that Yorkhill has. Disko (7/1) and Politologue (7/1) are also very good horses and if it wasn't for Yorkhill, I think those three would be fighting it out.
I don't think we'll get a very big field in this race and that could well be a concern for the keen Yorkhill. He'll probably want to be covered up a bit and if there's only a limited amount of runners, he could well throw the race away by pulling himself to the front. If that does happen, I think Disko will be the one to pick up the pieces. He was impressive last time out beating Our Duke, turning the form around from when they met over three miles and was happy sit in behind and pick off his opponent.
Selection: Yorkhill 11/8 (Various) or Disko 7/1 E/W if you want to take the fav on.
Pertemps Handicap Hurdle
Always a tricky race to decipher, the Pertemps final over three miles is unique in that you must finish in the top six in a qualifier to get into the race. But it's not always the winners of the qualifiers who run away with the prize in the final. Market leader is Tobefair (8/1) who, to be fair, has done absolutely nothing wrong so far. He has won seven on the bounce since joining Debra Hamer going up an incredible 53 lbs in the ratings. But he may have reached his top and I couldn't recommend him at the price. Presenting Percy (10/1) has been targeted at the race by last years winning connections (with Mall Dini), but he's been raised a fair bit for his last win and he might struggle of his higher mark.
The one that interests me at a big price is Clondaw Cian (33/1). He technically needs one to come out, but with Caid Du Berlais having ran on Tuesday, he should get in. He won at Cheltenham over 2m5 at the November meeting, staying on well and coming home 3 and a half lengths in front. He was subsequently well beaten at Warwick behind Tobefair despite being sent off favourite, but he was given a pretty considerate ride that day. He improved under an equally cautious ride at Exeter behind Impulsive Star (10/1) to finish fifth, but has now been dropped one lbs. He goes here off a nice racing weight, has course form, albeit not over quite this far, but he has won a point over three miles. The only concern is the potentially quicker ground, since he generally prefers it softer, but if he copes with it, the 28/1 could be a fair price.
Selection: Clondaw Cian 33/1 E/W (Various)
Ryanair Chase
The race which Vautour won so brilliant last year has another Willie Mullins hot pot as favourite. Un De Sceaux (3/1) was second in last years Queen Mother Champion Chase, having already won an Arkle, but he steps up to two mile five here. The trip, in combination with the ground is a concern, but he's settling better now he's grown up a bit. He's not as much of a mad bastard anymore and he should be able to see out the trip now. 9/4 is not available everywhere, but that does represent some value and I think he'll go off a fair bit shorter on the day.
Main market rivals are Uxizandre (9/2) and Empire of Dirt (11/4). The former was impressive when he finished second to Un De Sceaux here in the rearranged Clarence House Chase, but that was after a long break of 688 days and you'd have to worry about the bounce factor for him. He won this race two years ago, so he does have the ability and quality, but at the prices and taking the bounce risk into account, I'd rather leave him alone. Empire of Dirt won the Brown Plate last year, but he had a nice racing weight that time and the form of that race hasn't worked out that well. He seems to have improved a fair bit this year, but both his runs have come over three miles and he might find this on the sharp side. The others can be readily discounted, Vaniteux (25/1) will find this trip too far, Josses Hill (9/1) can't jump well enough, especially around this track and Alary (33/1) is just not good enough. If the rain came, you could do worse than backing Aso (66/1), but that seems unlikely.
Selection: Un De Sceaux 3/1 (Various)
Stayers Hurdle
The scene of Thistlecrack's brilliant victory last year, the stayers hurdle has another solid favourite in Unowhatimeanharry (6/4). He has put everything to the sword since winning the Albert Bartlett last year and is the right favourite. There is no Barry Geraghty on board this time, but Noel Fehily is a more than able replacement and he still rates the one to beat. Next in the market, in the same colours, is Jezki (8/1). The former Champion Hurdler had been off the track for a good while before comfortably winning on reappearance at Navan. He was beaten at Gowran by Tombstone following that, but I think the ground, rather than any bounce factor was the key in that. He has won over three miles before at the Punchestown festival. Good ground will see the best out of him and I think 8/1 is a fair price. 2015 winner Cole Harden (9/1) has been running pretty well, but he's always found won too good since his victory two years ago and after a failed chasing experiment has gone back over hurdles. I'm not sure he's the force of old and I'd happily swerve him.
Both of Mullins' runners in the Wylie colours are interesting. Shaneshill (12/1) is yet to win at the festival, but always runs his race. He's sure to stay the three mile trip and is probably a very good bet in the place only market, since he's always bang there, but never quite good enough to win in this sort of class. Nichols Canyon (12/1) is a horse who never gets the credit he deserves. He has won seven grade ones, including being the only horse to have beaten Faugheen, yet he gets crabbed wherever he goes. He is the pick of Ruby Walsh, which is a tip in itself, but I'd be concerned about him staying the three mile trip. I think shorter suits him better.
At the prices, I'd be tempted to give Ballyoptic (16/1) another go. He's had plenty of trouble staying on his feet, but I think he would've gone really close at Ascot when he came down at the last. I don't think he'll be too bothered by the drying ground, having won on good ground at Chepstow at the start of the season in a Grade three and if he stays on his feet, he'll go close
Selection Ballyoptic 16/1 E/W (Betfair)
Festival Plate Handicap Chase
Another competitive handicap next up and I really like Starchitect (8/1). David Pipe's been having a decent week so far the Rooney's had a winner with Willoughby Court today. This one was fifth in the County Hurdle last year, but has won over this sort of trip over hurdles before. He's also notched a fourth in the Fred Winter the year before, so the festival form is as solid as you'll find in this race. The market hasn't missed him however and there's not much juice left in the 8/1 available.
So looking at a bigger price, Henryville (28/1) for Harry Fry with in form Noel Fehily on is a valid alternative. He was fourth in the Pertemps two years ago and ran a very good race in the Sefton Chase last time out at Aintree. He came from well back to grab a clear third, but couldn't reach the leaders. He's on a good mark and comes here fresh off a break. He's won fresh before and that fourth in the Pertemps also came off a break, so he's got a live chance here at 28/1
Selections: Starchitect 8/1 E/W (Betway & Black Type) & Henryville 28/1 E/W (Bet365)
Mares Novices Hurdle
The race won by Limini last year in it's inaugural running hasn't got much of a history to go on, but we've seen that Willie Mullins has some very good novice mares this season. The likes of Let's Dance (15/8) and Airlie Beach (4/1) are easily good enough to take on the boys, but the lure of a big stable staff bonus for the former has seen her come here. I'm not sure if two miles is her optimum trip, indeed she seems to have improved for further, but she is very good and could easily be too good for the others. Her stable mate has stronger form over this trip and could well be the value at the current prices. The question is how much faith do you want to put in these with Mullins current form?
At bigger prices Forge Meadow (10/1), La Bague Au Roi (10/1), Barra (20/1) and Asthuria (14/1) are all really good mares. The former has also beaten the boys already, claiming a Grade two at Naas by eight lengths. She is certainly a value alternative to the top two in the market and 10/1 is probably too big. The latter is a very good horse, but has fallen twice now and it's hard to back her on the back of that. She has been bang in contention both times with Shattered Love (who was well fancied in the Neptune) and on that form line, 14/1 is probably a touch big, but she'd have to have improved massively in the jumping department.
At the end of the day, I do think the 15/8 about Let's Dance is too big. I think the stable staff bonus means they've gone for the weakest race when she could've easily ran in the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett and been amongst the places. She does have to give weight away to Asthuria, who I'd fancy from an E/W perspective if she's sorted her jumping out.
Selections: Let's Dance 15/8 (BlackType), or Asthuria E/W 14/1 (various)
Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Another one for the amateurs, so keep an eye on those jockey bookings and look for the Codd's and O'Connors of this world. Codd rides Squoateur (11/2), who is the favourite and he could well be on a handy mark. The extended three mile trip could well be an issue though. His best runs have been over two miles and two mile four and his only three mile effort was to finish a keeping on sixth at Aintree. He's too short for me though. Next in is Mall Dini (7/1), who won the Pertemps last year. He's been hit with a meaty rise by the handicapper and connections have let their displeasure be known about his English mark.
The one that I fancy here is the top weight, Pendra (16/1). He's been off since last years Grand National, but he has gone well fresh in the past, winning three out of four times after a break of over two hundred days. He's finished third in the Close Brothers Novices Chase before and fifth in the Ultima Chase, so he goes well enough around here and top weights don't have a bad record in this race. If he's fully tuned up for this, he could have a great chance of hitting the frame at a tasty price.
Selection: Pendra 16/1 E/W (PaddyPower/Betfair)
JLT Novices Chase
The day starts with the JLT Novices chase and Yorkhill (11/8) is a very solid favourite. He was an impressive winner of the Neptune last year and you feel that he could've gone close in either the Champion Hurdle or the Arkle, but connections have high hopes for this one following in Vautour's footsteps as a Gold Cup horse. Like Vautour in 2015, he comes her under a bit of a cloud concerning his jumping and I think the same thing will happen. He will annihilate the competition. He schooled awkwardly over the first few last weekend, but once they started going at a pace, he was pinpoint perfect. His only potential flaw is that he is very headstrong, but if Ruby can get him settled (and no better man to do it) then he'll romp away with this. Don't get me wrong, the opposition isn't bad, but they're not in the same league. Top Notch (4/1) is a very good jumper and has shown time and time again that he's not to be underestimated, but I don't think he's got that extra bit of Gold Standard that Yorkhill has. Disko (7/1) and Politologue (7/1) are also very good horses and if it wasn't for Yorkhill, I think those three would be fighting it out.
I don't think we'll get a very big field in this race and that could well be a concern for the keen Yorkhill. He'll probably want to be covered up a bit and if there's only a limited amount of runners, he could well throw the race away by pulling himself to the front. If that does happen, I think Disko will be the one to pick up the pieces. He was impressive last time out beating Our Duke, turning the form around from when they met over three miles and was happy sit in behind and pick off his opponent.
Selection: Yorkhill 11/8 (Various) or Disko 7/1 E/W if you want to take the fav on.
Pertemps Handicap Hurdle
Always a tricky race to decipher, the Pertemps final over three miles is unique in that you must finish in the top six in a qualifier to get into the race. But it's not always the winners of the qualifiers who run away with the prize in the final. Market leader is Tobefair (8/1) who, to be fair, has done absolutely nothing wrong so far. He has won seven on the bounce since joining Debra Hamer going up an incredible 53 lbs in the ratings. But he may have reached his top and I couldn't recommend him at the price. Presenting Percy (10/1) has been targeted at the race by last years winning connections (with Mall Dini), but he's been raised a fair bit for his last win and he might struggle of his higher mark.
The one that interests me at a big price is Clondaw Cian (33/1). He technically needs one to come out, but with Caid Du Berlais having ran on Tuesday, he should get in. He won at Cheltenham over 2m5 at the November meeting, staying on well and coming home 3 and a half lengths in front. He was subsequently well beaten at Warwick behind Tobefair despite being sent off favourite, but he was given a pretty considerate ride that day. He improved under an equally cautious ride at Exeter behind Impulsive Star (10/1) to finish fifth, but has now been dropped one lbs. He goes here off a nice racing weight, has course form, albeit not over quite this far, but he has won a point over three miles. The only concern is the potentially quicker ground, since he generally prefers it softer, but if he copes with it, the 28/1 could be a fair price.
Selection: Clondaw Cian 33/1 E/W (Various)
Ryanair Chase
The race which Vautour won so brilliant last year has another Willie Mullins hot pot as favourite. Un De Sceaux (3/1) was second in last years Queen Mother Champion Chase, having already won an Arkle, but he steps up to two mile five here. The trip, in combination with the ground is a concern, but he's settling better now he's grown up a bit. He's not as much of a mad bastard anymore and he should be able to see out the trip now. 9/4 is not available everywhere, but that does represent some value and I think he'll go off a fair bit shorter on the day.
Main market rivals are Uxizandre (9/2) and Empire of Dirt (11/4). The former was impressive when he finished second to Un De Sceaux here in the rearranged Clarence House Chase, but that was after a long break of 688 days and you'd have to worry about the bounce factor for him. He won this race two years ago, so he does have the ability and quality, but at the prices and taking the bounce risk into account, I'd rather leave him alone. Empire of Dirt won the Brown Plate last year, but he had a nice racing weight that time and the form of that race hasn't worked out that well. He seems to have improved a fair bit this year, but both his runs have come over three miles and he might find this on the sharp side. The others can be readily discounted, Vaniteux (25/1) will find this trip too far, Josses Hill (9/1) can't jump well enough, especially around this track and Alary (33/1) is just not good enough. If the rain came, you could do worse than backing Aso (66/1), but that seems unlikely.
Selection: Un De Sceaux 3/1 (Various)
Stayers Hurdle
The scene of Thistlecrack's brilliant victory last year, the stayers hurdle has another solid favourite in Unowhatimeanharry (6/4). He has put everything to the sword since winning the Albert Bartlett last year and is the right favourite. There is no Barry Geraghty on board this time, but Noel Fehily is a more than able replacement and he still rates the one to beat. Next in the market, in the same colours, is Jezki (8/1). The former Champion Hurdler had been off the track for a good while before comfortably winning on reappearance at Navan. He was beaten at Gowran by Tombstone following that, but I think the ground, rather than any bounce factor was the key in that. He has won over three miles before at the Punchestown festival. Good ground will see the best out of him and I think 8/1 is a fair price. 2015 winner Cole Harden (9/1) has been running pretty well, but he's always found won too good since his victory two years ago and after a failed chasing experiment has gone back over hurdles. I'm not sure he's the force of old and I'd happily swerve him.
Both of Mullins' runners in the Wylie colours are interesting. Shaneshill (12/1) is yet to win at the festival, but always runs his race. He's sure to stay the three mile trip and is probably a very good bet in the place only market, since he's always bang there, but never quite good enough to win in this sort of class. Nichols Canyon (12/1) is a horse who never gets the credit he deserves. He has won seven grade ones, including being the only horse to have beaten Faugheen, yet he gets crabbed wherever he goes. He is the pick of Ruby Walsh, which is a tip in itself, but I'd be concerned about him staying the three mile trip. I think shorter suits him better.
At the prices, I'd be tempted to give Ballyoptic (16/1) another go. He's had plenty of trouble staying on his feet, but I think he would've gone really close at Ascot when he came down at the last. I don't think he'll be too bothered by the drying ground, having won on good ground at Chepstow at the start of the season in a Grade three and if he stays on his feet, he'll go close
Selection Ballyoptic 16/1 E/W (Betfair)
Festival Plate Handicap Chase
Another competitive handicap next up and I really like Starchitect (8/1). David Pipe's been having a decent week so far the Rooney's had a winner with Willoughby Court today. This one was fifth in the County Hurdle last year, but has won over this sort of trip over hurdles before. He's also notched a fourth in the Fred Winter the year before, so the festival form is as solid as you'll find in this race. The market hasn't missed him however and there's not much juice left in the 8/1 available.
So looking at a bigger price, Henryville (28/1) for Harry Fry with in form Noel Fehily on is a valid alternative. He was fourth in the Pertemps two years ago and ran a very good race in the Sefton Chase last time out at Aintree. He came from well back to grab a clear third, but couldn't reach the leaders. He's on a good mark and comes here fresh off a break. He's won fresh before and that fourth in the Pertemps also came off a break, so he's got a live chance here at 28/1
Selections: Starchitect 8/1 E/W (Betway & Black Type) & Henryville 28/1 E/W (Bet365)
Mares Novices Hurdle
The race won by Limini last year in it's inaugural running hasn't got much of a history to go on, but we've seen that Willie Mullins has some very good novice mares this season. The likes of Let's Dance (15/8) and Airlie Beach (4/1) are easily good enough to take on the boys, but the lure of a big stable staff bonus for the former has seen her come here. I'm not sure if two miles is her optimum trip, indeed she seems to have improved for further, but she is very good and could easily be too good for the others. Her stable mate has stronger form over this trip and could well be the value at the current prices. The question is how much faith do you want to put in these with Mullins current form?
At bigger prices Forge Meadow (10/1), La Bague Au Roi (10/1), Barra (20/1) and Asthuria (14/1) are all really good mares. The former has also beaten the boys already, claiming a Grade two at Naas by eight lengths. She is certainly a value alternative to the top two in the market and 10/1 is probably too big. The latter is a very good horse, but has fallen twice now and it's hard to back her on the back of that. She has been bang in contention both times with Shattered Love (who was well fancied in the Neptune) and on that form line, 14/1 is probably a touch big, but she'd have to have improved massively in the jumping department.
At the end of the day, I do think the 15/8 about Let's Dance is too big. I think the stable staff bonus means they've gone for the weakest race when she could've easily ran in the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett and been amongst the places. She does have to give weight away to Asthuria, who I'd fancy from an E/W perspective if she's sorted her jumping out.
Selections: Let's Dance 15/8 (BlackType), or Asthuria E/W 14/1 (various)
Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Another one for the amateurs, so keep an eye on those jockey bookings and look for the Codd's and O'Connors of this world. Codd rides Squoateur (11/2), who is the favourite and he could well be on a handy mark. The extended three mile trip could well be an issue though. His best runs have been over two miles and two mile four and his only three mile effort was to finish a keeping on sixth at Aintree. He's too short for me though. Next in is Mall Dini (7/1), who won the Pertemps last year. He's been hit with a meaty rise by the handicapper and connections have let their displeasure be known about his English mark.
The one that I fancy here is the top weight, Pendra (16/1). He's been off since last years Grand National, but he has gone well fresh in the past, winning three out of four times after a break of over two hundred days. He's finished third in the Close Brothers Novices Chase before and fifth in the Ultima Chase, so he goes well enough around here and top weights don't have a bad record in this race. If he's fully tuned up for this, he could have a great chance of hitting the frame at a tasty price.
Selection: Pendra 16/1 E/W (PaddyPower/Betfair)
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