Aintree Day One

Evening all,

Still on holidays, but a quick write-up for day one of the Grand National meeting. Some cracking races in prospect over the three days, including many of the Cheltenham stars making an appearance. I'll have a look at the first four races on the card.

We'll dive straight into the action with the opening race, the Manifesto Novices Chase. I think this will be very much between the top four in the market. Sizing John is the favourite. He's not got a massive winning record, but that's on the account of five finishes behind the outstanding Douvan. While I think he's a good horse, I'm not sure if the step up in trip will suit. Furthermore I think L'Ami Serge will be better suited by the expected soft-ish ground. The flat Aintree track should be better suited compared to the tough uphill finish at Cheltenham. Garde La Victoire travelled well in the JLT until falling and if he isn't worse for wear for his tumble, he could well get involved at the finish. Like Sizing John though, I feel he could struggle to see out the full trip. Arzal missed Cheltenham and has been kept for this and could well be the outsider to have a big run. For my money though, L'Ami Serge is the most likely winner

L'Ami Serge 7/2

The Juvenile hurdle is a competitive affair, but I expect it to be between the top three from the Triumph. Diego Du Chamil will probably run a decent race, but I don't think he'll beat Ivanovich Gorbatov, Footpad or Apple's Jade. The former was an impressive winner of the Triumph on good ground, but the prospect of softer ground could well benefit the two Mullins runners. Of those two, I'd pick the latter. Apple's Jade can make the most of her filly's allowance. Softer ground could also see a big run from Sceau Royal at a big price and he'd be my each way selection

Apple's Jade 9/2
Sceau Royal 20/1

The BetFred bowl could be where Cue Card gets his redemption after his unfortunate Gold Cup fall. I think he would've gone mighty close and this race, even on softer ground, will be tailor made for him. A win would perhaps not completely redeem his unfortunate lapse, but it would be no less than he deserves after a fantastic season. I would imagine the placed will be filled by the Mullins brigade with both Djakadam and Don Poli having a reasonable chance. The latter may struggle for speed over an even shorter trip and will probably one to keep on side for the big one, maybe even next year.

Cue Card 5/4

Finally, the Doom Bar Hurdle where Annie Power will be looking to follow up on her Champion Hurdle victory. I don't think any of those will be able to live with her. She proved at Cheltenham that she's a wonderful horse and even over the longer trip I cannot imagine any of those being able to give the weight away to her. Nicholls Canyon would be my selection to follow the wonder mare home. He'll be better over this slightly longer trip, but I don't think he'll beat Annie. I think My Tent or Yours will struggle over the distance and the bounce factor is a concern for him.

Annie Power 4/7
(Throw in Nicholls Canyon @ 5/1 for the forecast if you want some value)