Weekend Preview - Newbury
Expected going: Hurdles: Heavy - soft in places, Chase: Soft-heavy in places
By @Redgameracer
2.25 Denman Chase (Class 1)
Frankly, I'm not sure how a race named after an all-time great can attract such dross for a field. No offence to the horses in question, but it's not exactly a stellar renewal of this race. But we'll do our best to spy something that is value.
Rocky Creek (13/8) sits at the top of the market for Paul Nicholls. He's got a decent record on the expected going, with three wins from six. He was hampered on a few occasions last time out in the Grand Sefton before being pulled up, but managed a second to Don Cossack before that.
Ballynagour (2/1) is next for David Pipe. He's been well behind on all three of his last few starts and never really got going in the King George last time out. He is the highest rated horse in the line-up, but the form would suggest his best days are behind him now.
More interesting is Houblon Des Obeaux (7/2). Venetia Williams' charge has been running reasonably well in big field handicaps, including fourth in the BetFred Classic Chase at Warwick behind Russe Blanc. He was well beaten that day, but this could be the sort of race to get him back in contention. It's not a handicap, so he won't be able to make the most of his falling mark, but he makes more appeal to me than the front two.
The Giant Bolster is 14/1 for David Bridgewater and I think the good old plodder could have a better chance than that here. One thing we do know is that he stays and despite a struggling fourth to Smad Place in the BetBright Chase at Cheltenham, this is an easier task. He doesn't have the best record around Newbury, which would be a concern, but most times that has been in tougher races. He did finish second in this race three years ago and although arguably not the same horse, I'd give him a chance.
That leaves us with Splash of Ginge (16/1) and Midnight Appeal (66/1). The former wasn't doing too badly when unseating in the Hennessy, but subsequently disappointed in the Peter Marsh. The latter seems to be out of his depth even in this race.
It's a shame there's only seven runners, because that means there's only two places to aim for, but I think The Giant Bolster at 14/1 EW and Houblon Des Obeaux at 7/2 win only are the best bets in this ultimately disappointing race.
3.00 The Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2)
A cracking race is in store for us in the Game Spirit Chase. Named after the succesful racehorse owned by the Queen Mother, it was first run in 1953, but has only been a graded race since 1992. Eight runners are set to line up, including the second from 2014, Dodging Bullets. Last year's Champion Chase winner makes his belated seasonal reappearance here for Paul Nicholls, who has won this race seven times since the turn of the century. Nicky Henderson has two wins to his name.
We'll start with Dodging Bullets (8/13). The winner of last year's Champion Chase has struggled with injury this season and although Harry Derham has been reporting he's ready to go on his blog, you'd have to wonder what sort of impact this long a lay-off has had on the horse. On ratings, he should be the best horse in the race and if he's fully tuned up, he should be the one to beat.
Nicky Henderson could be three handed, but a lot of that depends on Warwick going ahead. If it does, then L'Ami Serge (6/1) is bound to go there to run in the Kingmaker, but if it doesn't, he could well be the one to take on Dodging Bullets. He's been impressive in heavy conditions, but admittedly hasn't beaten much and a step up in open company could be a tough ask at this stage. Henderson thinks a lot of him and tough conditions could see him to good effect. He's certainly Henderson's best chance, as the other two runners have question marks about them. Josses Hill (8/1) has shown some indifferent jumping of late, most recently when he clouted one in the Tingle Creek. He'll need to show significant improvement on that effort to compete here, even if he is the second highest rated horse in the race. Captain Conan (11/2) made his reappearance after nearly two years off in the Champion Hurdle trial at Haydock. That was in absolutely bottomless conditions and that may well have taken a chunk out of him. You'd imagine that Henderson won't want him to have a hard race after that. On his highest rating, he would have a decent chance, but you'd have to wonder about his well being.
Kerry Lee is a trainer in great form in her first full year and she has two entered. Top Gamble (5/1) looks the best chance of those two, having been placed in two handicaps at Newbury & Cheltenham at the end of last year. They were both admirable attempts, but he has sixteen pounds to find with Dodging Bullets on official ratings. Grey Gold (10/1) is Lee's other runner and although he's a winner over C&D in November, this is different gravy to that run. The eleven year old was pulled up either side of that winning run and I don't think he'll get involved here.
That leaves us with the two outsiders in the field, Willow's Saviour (20/1) and Un Beau Roman (66/1). The former won on Chase debut this year, beating the progressive Aso by a neck before being well down the field in Ar Mad's destruction job in the Henry VIII Novices'. That is not all together bad form, but this is a step up into open company and he's not as good as L'Ami Serge in that regard. Un Beau Roman is a former Willie Mullins horse, but despite a win at Kempton has not lived up to some of the achievements of his former stable mates.
In closing, Dodging Bullets is clearly the one to beat, but it will be an interesting race if Warwick gets abandoned and L'Ami Serge turns up here instead. His price will drop instantly if that does happen and you'd have to wonder if there's any value left by the time that happens. If Warwick goes ahead then you'd have to think 'Dodge' should be able to win this, even without being fully tuned up.
3.35 Betfair Hurdle (Grade 3)
The Betfair Hurdle is our final feature race from Newbury. A prize pot of just shy of 90 grand will await the winner of this Grade 3 Handicap and we have a big field set to line up and try to follow in the footsteps of Violet Dancer, last year's winner.
Let's look into the trends to see if we can find some pointers before we analyse the contestants. First of all, young horses have a good record, with the last nine races being won by five or six year olds. Horses with a weight lower than 11-02 do best, with only one runner winning with a higher weight in the last ten runnings. All of the last five were also 10-08 or higher. No top weight has won in that time. Ratings wise, the trends favour those running off 131 or higher (eight winners), with the only two exceptions being trained by Gary Moore. Neither Moore nor other multiple winner Nicky Henderson has entries though, so perhaps it favours to look to some of the recent placers such as Phillip Hobbs or David Pipe (five places each) or one times winners Paul Nicholls and Jonjo O'Neill. The Irish have a poor record and Irish Champion trainer Willie Mullins has seen his last eleven runners unplaced. Nine out of ten winners finished in the front three on their previous start.
So in summary, we want a five or six year old, racing between 10-08 and 11-02, rated 131 or higher and trained by Hobbs, Pipe, Nicholls or O'Neill, who finished in the front three last time out.
Sternrubin has the services of Richard Johnson for Phillip Hobbs. He has won both his races this season, although the latter of those was in a dead heat with Jolly's Cracked It. He's a tough sort and although he's never encountered conditions as they are expected to be, he is probably good enough to deal with them.
Mad Jack Mytton is a big price. He disappointed in the Greatwood Hurdle before bouncing back with a second place in a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham. Josh Moore takes the place of Richard Johnson, who had ridden him on all three starts so far this season and it will be interesting to see how he gets on with the horse. The O'Neill yard hasn't been in fantastic form, but perhaps a change in fortune is coming.
Leaving the stats behind for a minute, we switch to the new market leader Blazer (4/1). He retains the services of Geraghty after his win last weekend and is turned out quickly again under a penalty. He ticks some of the boxes in that he's rated 131, racing with a low weight of only 10-04 and a five year old who's won last time out. He's also trained by Willie Mullins, which in this case is a black mark in his book. It's a stat bound to get busted though and this one certainly has a leading chance to make that happen.
War Sound (15/2) has two ticks against him, in being too old (seven) and to heavy (11-07). That said, Ciaran Gethings claims five off and was also on board for this horse's last two wins last spring. He is making his seasonal reappearance and that is a concern in a hot race like this so I'm happy to swerve this one.
Affaire D'honneur (10/1) is a potential improver for Harry Whittington and Gavin Sheehan. He ran well enough on debut behind Zulu Oscar at Kempton to finish second, but couldn't quite challenge for victory going down to the line. He's a pretty unexposed one and another who comes in off a low weight.
Three horses are available at 16/1, Zarib, Forest Bihan and Starchitect. I can't see why the former is to be honest. Yes, he comes here with a low weight and Bridget Andrews claims five more off, but his latest form isn't exactly impressive enough for me to consider. He has won over C&D and perhaps that is the attraction. Forest Bihan ticks more boxes and also has the in form Danny Cook on board. He was only just headed last time out at Catterick and ran well in his races before that. But of the three, Starchitect makes the most appeal. It's his first run for David Pipe since leaving Donald McCain's yard and the Rooney's have had some first time out winners with their horses that they moved. Tom Scudamore takes the ride and I think this could be an outsider that has a chance.
The only one that stands out for me at a bigger price is Dicosimo (20/1) for Willie Mullins, but the question remains if he's going to come over for this or not. He won well last time out at Limerick, but he has an awful lot of weight to shoulder in this race.
With such a big field, I'm happy to take two here to give me a run for my money. I'll have a small EW stake on Mad Jack Mytton (28/1), purely on the basis of the stats and I'll also chance Starchitect (16/1) with some each way money in the hope that the Rooney's can continue their good form with first time outers since leaving McCain.
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