Weekend Preview - Sandown
Expected going: Hurdle soft straight heavy in places; back straight good to soft in places; chase good to soft-soft in places
By @Redgameracer
2.25 Scilly Isles Novice Chase (Grade 1)
2m 4f 10y
It's difficult to make an accurate observation on this race as quite a few of the Irish horse also hold entries to the Flogas Novice Chase over at Leopardstown on the same day. But let's see what we can do.
First let's look at the trends for this race. Favourites have won seven of the last ten and all ten have gone off at odds of 9/2 or less. Horses that have finished first or second last time out tend to do well, with nine out of ten winning. Seven out of ten winners posted an RPR of 144+ last time out. Seven out of ten had previously won over 2 mile, three furlongs. Finally four out of nine winners had previously won at Sandown, while the other five had their first run here.
At the top of the market currently, sits Tea for Two (1/1). Nick Williams' charge was impressive last time out winning at Kempton over three miles. But he has won over 2m3 before and he's a rightful favourite. Lizzie Kelly is a good jockey and she'll be on board again for this one. This will be a thorough test of his jumping, having never raced here before, but I feel he'll be up to the test. At even money though, it's not much of a bet.
The only other horse at a shortish price is Bristol De Mai (5/2). He hasn't been out of the frame in all five of his starts this season, winning his last two races in good style. Being a five year old, he gets a small weight allowance and that could well give him an advantage in this race. He has only placed on his two appearances here, including second to Ar Mad in December. Nigel Twiston-Davies' charge hasn't been jocked up yet, but you'd imagine he'll take his chance for this and at 5/2 best price he's a more attractive proposition.
Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race, but he's been out of form lately. He runs As De Mee (16/1), who is a course and distance winner, but comes here on the back of a fall. He's as big as 16/1 and that seems perfectly reasonable. He fell behind Tea for Two and was behind Bristol de Mai in that race that Ar Mad won. I can't see any reason why he would reverse that form.
Of the others, Bitofapuzzle (20/1) also holds an entry for the Towton at Wetherby, but could provide some EW value should she turn up here. Maximiser (16/1) comes here on the back of a fall and I'm not convinced he's good enough, while Ubak (33/1) has displayed some ropey jumping in the past which won't help him on this course.
For win purposes the battle will most likely be between Tea For Two and Bristol de Mai. Bitofapuzzle could provide the EW value should she turn up, but I'll side with Tea for Two in this one.
Weekend Preview - Leopardstown
Expected going: Soft - Soft to heavy in places
By @Redgameracer
12.55 Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m
Leopardstown starts off with the Spring Juvenile Hurdle and it looks an absolute cracker. You could probably make a case for most of these, so let's see if we can narrow it down a bit with the help of the past stats.
Favourites have won three out of the last ten which is a pretty interesting observation. Only three fillies have won it since 2002, but they haven't had many runners and all three were shorter than 14/1 by the off. There's four fillies in this race at this time, so that is an interesting statistic. Ten out of the last ten winners have been in the front two last time out, with six of them winning. Also, ten out of ten winners posted a RPR of 122 or higher, with six of them posting 128 or higher. Flat bred horses tend to do well with ten out of the last ten winners sired by a group winning stallion and a six out of the last seven winners were rated over 80 on the flat.
Top of the market at this time is Ivanovich Gorbatov (8/13). A highly rated flat horse (103 OR), he impressed in winning a maiden hurdle at this course on the 27th of December. That made him the hot favourite for the Triumph. A few of those in behind have won again since, including re-opposing fillies Lagostovegas and Tocororo. The favourites haven't got a great record in this race though and he will have to be something very special to follow up. His RPR last time was 134, so no concerns on that front.
Let's Dance (7/2) was second to the favourite at that Christmas meeting and she re-opposes here for Willie Mullins. She doesn't have the same flat pedigree, but is out of the same stallion as well established National Hunt performers like Don Poli and Roi Des Francs. With short priced fillies having a good record in this race, she could well be the one to upset the favourite, getting the seven pound fillies allowance. She just squeaks in on the RPR stat, with 123 last time out.
The next one in the market is also a filly, Jer's Girl (10/1). She has run on the flat, without too much conviction, but has since improved over obstacles winning twice, including a listed hurdle at Aintree, before coming a narrow second to Apple's Jade in a Grade 2 on Boxing Day. She only reached the low seventies on the flat, but her highest RPR is 132 and on that stat she's very much in the picture.
Footpad (14/1) is another for Willie Mullins here. He has won two out of his last three, finishing third behind Jer's Girl on the other occasion. A gelding who has never run on the flat, he has done pretty well on the ratings. The worry is however that he's already finished behind some of these and would need to do some improving to overturn them.
The final Mullins entry is Allblak Des Places (16/1). He kept on wellt o win his race last time out, but that wasn't a strong race and this is a big step up. One more for the future perhaps than the present.
To round it off, we have Rashaan (20/1), Lagostovegas (25/1). Those two could spring a surprise. Rashaan had been impressive until running poorly at the Christmas meeting and if he can regain his form, he will be a player. From an unfancied yard perhaps, but if he was with say Mullins or Elliot, he'd be a shorter price, I think. Lagostovegas finally broke her duck over hurdles last time out at Naas, but the concern is that she's already finished behind a few of these on a number of occasions and I don't think she's progressive enough to advance past them. Best Kept Secret is the rank outsider of this field and I can't see him being involved.
In closing, I think the top two in the market are the most likely winners, but with the stats not pointing to the favourite, I'd chance Let's Dance as a win only bet. If you're looking for something each way, then Rashaan at 20/1 has to be value if you can forgive him his Christmas run.
1.55 Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m 2f
Only five are set to go in this race, but it's five quality horses that line up. Willie Mullins has three in the race at the time of writing, with Bellshill (6/4) the current market favourite. Ruby Walsh is set to take the ride for the Wylie's and their charge is on a four race unbeaten streak. The last three over hurdles, he has won by a cumulative distance of 26 lenghts, but he may face some stronger competition here.
Tombstone (2/1) will line up for Gordon Elliot and is not without a chance. He was narrowly beaten by Long Dog at the Christmas meeting, but didn't lose anything in defeat and could well go forward from that. Unlike his market rival, who has won over further and shorter, Tombstone has won over this distance previously. He'll be sporting a first time hood to keep him focussed and if it has the desired effect, he could well overturn the fav and shorten in the Supreme market.
Coney Island (7/1), Petit Mouchoir (8/1) and Bleu et Rouge (20/1) complete the field. As the odds and indeed the ratings imply, they have something to find with the front two on the bare form, with Coney Island only rated 130 compared to Bellshill's 150.
I think this race will be between the front two in the market, and although I like Bellshill, I think he'll prefer further, so I'll side with Tombstone to win this one.
2.30 Flogas Novice Chase (Grade 1)
2m 5f 60y
The Flogas Novice chase is next and although there are no prices up yet, I'd expect Outlander and Pont Alexandre to vie for favouritism here. Willie Mullins trains both and also has McKinley entered here. I don't think the latter will go close despite winning last time out. Outlander steps up to this distance for the first time over fences, having won over slightly shorter on his previous two starts, while Pont Alexandre drops down in trip from the 3 miles where he finished second behind Roi des Francs. He won impressive on his reappearance from a long absence and is clearly a classy animal, but you'd have to wonder how fit he is considering that long lay off.
The interesting one, is Zabana for Andrew Lynch. He won on chase debut at this track over Christmas and has been shortening remarkably for the JLT in the past few days. A good showing here could further enhance his claims, but he'll need to step up to show he's good enough to beat the front two in the market.
Monksland has struggled to get his head in front and Noel Meade despite beating Roi Des Francs at Gowran in November. I don't think he'll break that rut here. Blair Perrone is not good enough to win this.
With no prices available at this time, I'm going to go with the tissue paper prices and I think Outlander at 9/4 could be a good bet. Step up in trip isn't a concern while I think Pont Alexandre has questions to answer. They also won't want to give him too hard a ride and Outlander could well profit from that.
3.40 Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1)
3m 60y
The market seems to suggest that this is all about Road To Riches (4/5) and I can't really disagree. Last year's Gold Cup third was impressive in winning the Clonmel Oil Chase and takes on a field of ten here. He's got form over track and trip as well as conditions and I think he's the one to beat.
That doesn't stop me looking for some value though and I think both First Lieutenant (10/1) and Valseur Lido (12/1) will give a good account. The former was hit with a hefty raise in the weights after his second to Don Poli in the Lexus, but he's the type that keeps plugging away all the way to the line and at 10/1, he's going to give you a run for your money. The latter fell in the King George after an uncharacteristically sluggish performance, but time is still on his side and he could bounce back to form here.
Of the others, I don't hold Gilgamboa (9/1) or Carlingford Lough (20/1) in very high regard, while Sir Des Champs (20/1) has questions to answer after disappointing last time out. Foxrock is too short for my liking to get involved and I don't think the others will vie for the places.
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