Morning all,
Six winners in all yesterday, including a winning NAP and a total profit of 15 points. That puts us up over 100 for the month and hopefully we can continue that sort of form. The NB and the 3B both placed yesterday at a big price, so it was a good day all together
Today's racing sees two great meetings at Doncaster and Huntingdon and a fairly indifferent one at Thurles before the all-weather action from Chelsmford. I have three selections for you to get stuck into.
We start at Huntingdon where Baoulet Delaroque is the NAP. He takes on Value at Risk, who is a class horse, but has shown some indifferent form of late. The selection is two from two over this distance and was impressive last time out winning at Wincanton, despite being not fluent at the last, he won by eight lengths. He will be well fancied again here today and despite the penalty, he should be good enough to win this.
The Next Best comes from the evening meeting at Chelmsford where Clock On Tom will hope to bounce back to form. He wasn't at his best at Southwell earlier this week, but back to the track where he last won and over a distance he was won at twice this season, he makes appeal. The return to the polytrack will hopefully bring some improvement.
Finally we go to the last at Doncaster, where I'm taking a punt on Prince of Thieves. AJ Honeyball's charge was pulled up on his first two handicap hurdle starts, but looked better when third at Taunton last time out. He retains the blinkers from that run. Honeyball has a great record in February and David Noonan has a great record this trainer as well. I'm hoping the combination can pull it off again and the price is certainly tempting enough.
11-02
Doncaster
1.15 St Johns Point 4/1
1.45 Newsworthy 10/3
2.20 Winter Escape 1/3
2.55 Deadly Approach 8/1
3.30 Whataknight 6/1
4.05 Nexius 9/2
4.40 Prince of Thieves 6/1 3B
Huntingdon
1.25 Still Together 3/1
1.55 Baoulet Delaroque 9/4 NAP
2.30 Squire Trelawney 7/1
3.05 Ma Du Fou 3/1
3.40 Classinaglass 9/2
4.15 Storm Patrol 5/1
4.50 Bright Eyes 13/8
Thurles
1.35 Kayf Supreme 1/5
2.05 Ballychorus 1/3
2.40 Milanesque 7/4
3.15 Minella Scamp 10/3
3.50 Inch Rise 10/1
4.25 Infrontofthejudge 14/1
5.00 Augustin 10/11
Chelmsford City
5.10 Clock On Tom 4/1 NB
5.40 Dream Ally 9/2
6.10 Bosham 5/1
6.40 Whispering Warrior 5/1
7.10 Cultured Knight 5/6
7.40 Gracious George 11/2
8.10 Falcon's Fire 5/1
Thursday, 11 February 2016
Wednesday, 10 February 2016
Reds Racing Tips 10-02
Morning all,
A winning NAP yesterday, but an overall loss to round off the day. The NB was bitterly disappointing, while the 3B was in with a chance until a shoddy jump at the last all but ruled him out of contention.
Three more meetings today and it's fairly competitive stuff. The Kempton card in particular looks like it could be good viewing. I've picked out three selections that I think will go well today.
We'll start at Kempton where Kalamata is the NAP. She made a winning handicap debut last time out and has only been raised three points for that. She stayed on well on that occasion, suggesting that this step up in trip is no problem for Roger Varian's charge. Jack Mitchell does the steering once again and the combination is sure to go close.
Next we go to Carlisle, where Hartside makes appeal at a big price. He goes well on heavy ground and today's going will be testing. His record at Carlisle is pretty good, with a win and a place, both of those at 110 and today he runs off only one lb higher. If you can forgive him an indifferent run at Doncaster latest, then the form looks pretty good and at a big price, he could give us a good run.
Finally we go to Southwell's opener. It's a competitive race, but I think Fujin could well bounce back from a poor effort last time out. He didn't get away well that time under Adam Kirby and usual jockey Paul Mulrennan is back in the plate today. He's never been out of the frame with Mulrennan on board and he's won twice in three starts over C&D.
10-02
Southwell
1.10 Fujin 7/1 3B
1.40 Vivacissimo 9/2
2.10 Masqueraded 7/2
2.45 Be Royale 9/2
3.20 Wings of Esteem 4/1
3.55 Artbeat 11/2
4.25 Eium Mac 11/2
Carlisle
1.50 Breezemount 5/1
2.20 Longueville Flier 9/2
2.55 Wicked Games 20/1
3.30 Morning Royalty 11/4
4.05 Subtle Grey 10/11
4.35 Hartside 9/1 NB
Kempton
4.55 Lizzy's Dream 5/2
5.25 Sudden Wish 14/1
5.55 Feelin Dicky 13/2
6.25 Deep Dream 3/1
6.55 Kalamata 11/8 NAP
7.25 Charlies Mate 11/2
7.55 Undertow 8/1
A winning NAP yesterday, but an overall loss to round off the day. The NB was bitterly disappointing, while the 3B was in with a chance until a shoddy jump at the last all but ruled him out of contention.
Three more meetings today and it's fairly competitive stuff. The Kempton card in particular looks like it could be good viewing. I've picked out three selections that I think will go well today.
We'll start at Kempton where Kalamata is the NAP. She made a winning handicap debut last time out and has only been raised three points for that. She stayed on well on that occasion, suggesting that this step up in trip is no problem for Roger Varian's charge. Jack Mitchell does the steering once again and the combination is sure to go close.
Next we go to Carlisle, where Hartside makes appeal at a big price. He goes well on heavy ground and today's going will be testing. His record at Carlisle is pretty good, with a win and a place, both of those at 110 and today he runs off only one lb higher. If you can forgive him an indifferent run at Doncaster latest, then the form looks pretty good and at a big price, he could give us a good run.
Finally we go to Southwell's opener. It's a competitive race, but I think Fujin could well bounce back from a poor effort last time out. He didn't get away well that time under Adam Kirby and usual jockey Paul Mulrennan is back in the plate today. He's never been out of the frame with Mulrennan on board and he's won twice in three starts over C&D.
10-02
Southwell
1.10 Fujin 7/1 3B
1.40 Vivacissimo 9/2
2.10 Masqueraded 7/2
2.45 Be Royale 9/2
3.20 Wings of Esteem 4/1
3.55 Artbeat 11/2
4.25 Eium Mac 11/2
Carlisle
1.50 Breezemount 5/1
2.20 Longueville Flier 9/2
2.55 Wicked Games 20/1
3.30 Morning Royalty 11/4
4.05 Subtle Grey 10/11
4.35 Hartside 9/1 NB
Kempton
4.55 Lizzy's Dream 5/2
5.25 Sudden Wish 14/1
5.55 Feelin Dicky 13/2
6.25 Deep Dream 3/1
6.55 Kalamata 11/8 NAP
7.25 Charlies Mate 11/2
7.55 Undertow 8/1
Tuesday, 9 February 2016
Reds Racing Tips 09-02
Hi all,
Another great day yesterday, with two 11/1 winners at Wolves, three winners at Musselburgh, including the 3B and an 11/2 winner at Fakenham. All told, a profit of over thirty points. The NAP was denied on the line, quickly running out of steam on the run in and the NB was sadly disappointing.
Three meetings today and once again I've gone for one best selection from each.
We start at my local track Sedgefield where Chasma is my selection in the second race. She won at Uttoxeter in similar conditions in November over the same distance, but found the step up in trip a bit too far next time out at Catterick. She's only seven pounds higher than her win, but as a six year old, I think there's some improvement left to come from her.
Southwell next and I'm going to go with Sir Pitt in their second race on the card. He hasn't run on the flat for a very long time (1954 days to be exact), but has been highly effective on this surface and this track in the past. That was for John Gosden, but he's now in the capable hands of David Bridgewater. He's on an attractive mark for this return and there has already been market support for him (he was 5/1 last night), so he could be worth chancing over the favourite.
Finally we go to Market Rasen for their second race. Sam Twiston-Davies comes down for just one ride, on Midnight Tour. I'm not his biggest fan, but he is a good jockey and I think the fact that he's here for just the one ride is significant. The selection won a bumper in similar conditions at Catterick last spring, but subsequently disappointed in a similar race at Huntingdon. At the prices, the six year old mare is a more interesting proposition than the odds-on jolly.
09-02
Sedgefield
1.50 Yes I Did 8/15
2.20 Chasma 9/4 NAP
2.55 Court Dismissed 13/2
3.25 Heart O Annadale 13/2
4.00 Odds On Dan 6/1
4.30 Copt Hill 5/2
Market Rasen
2.00 Wolfcatcher 11/10
2.30 Midnight Tour 5/1 3B
3.05 Sharpasaknife 2/1
3.35 Spencer Lea 7/2
4.10 Azert De Coeur 6/5
4.40 Dark Lover 8/15
Southwell
2.10 Geeaitch 11/2
2.45 Sir Pitt 7/2 NB
3.15 Fearbuster 6/1
3.50 Showtime Star 9/2
4.20 Never Say 11/2
4.50 Rampers 12/1
Another great day yesterday, with two 11/1 winners at Wolves, three winners at Musselburgh, including the 3B and an 11/2 winner at Fakenham. All told, a profit of over thirty points. The NAP was denied on the line, quickly running out of steam on the run in and the NB was sadly disappointing.
Three meetings today and once again I've gone for one best selection from each.
We start at my local track Sedgefield where Chasma is my selection in the second race. She won at Uttoxeter in similar conditions in November over the same distance, but found the step up in trip a bit too far next time out at Catterick. She's only seven pounds higher than her win, but as a six year old, I think there's some improvement left to come from her.
Southwell next and I'm going to go with Sir Pitt in their second race on the card. He hasn't run on the flat for a very long time (1954 days to be exact), but has been highly effective on this surface and this track in the past. That was for John Gosden, but he's now in the capable hands of David Bridgewater. He's on an attractive mark for this return and there has already been market support for him (he was 5/1 last night), so he could be worth chancing over the favourite.
Finally we go to Market Rasen for their second race. Sam Twiston-Davies comes down for just one ride, on Midnight Tour. I'm not his biggest fan, but he is a good jockey and I think the fact that he's here for just the one ride is significant. The selection won a bumper in similar conditions at Catterick last spring, but subsequently disappointed in a similar race at Huntingdon. At the prices, the six year old mare is a more interesting proposition than the odds-on jolly.
09-02
Sedgefield
1.50 Yes I Did 8/15
2.20 Chasma 9/4 NAP
2.55 Court Dismissed 13/2
3.25 Heart O Annadale 13/2
4.00 Odds On Dan 6/1
4.30 Copt Hill 5/2
Market Rasen
2.00 Wolfcatcher 11/10
2.30 Midnight Tour 5/1 3B
3.05 Sharpasaknife 2/1
3.35 Spencer Lea 7/2
4.10 Azert De Coeur 6/5
4.40 Dark Lover 8/15
Southwell
2.10 Geeaitch 11/2
2.45 Sir Pitt 7/2 NB
3.15 Fearbuster 6/1
3.50 Showtime Star 9/2
4.20 Never Say 11/2
4.50 Rampers 12/1
Monday, 8 February 2016
Reds Racing Tips 08-02
Morning all,
A good weekends of racing, although I didn't follow much of yesterday's proceedings. Saturday though sprang some surprises and there was a good old shake-up in the antepost markets for a few races, most notably the Triumph.
Three meetings today and a best bet from each of them. We start at Fakenham where I fancy Donald McCain's Astrum to follow up his second from last month with a win. That was over the same trip and with Ronan Short taking off ten, he should have a good chance off top weight. The grey has been placed in half his starts all together, but in 66% over this distance and in five out of seven in this class. He should certainly be there or thereabouts.
Next we go to Wolverhampton where Easydoesit will look to continue Georgia Cox' excellent form in the saddle. Tom Carroll has won this race in the past two years and a four pound rise for the win at Lingfield doesn't look beyond this eight year old.
Harleys Max is the final selection in the 2.30 at Musselburgh. A winner on his only start over C&D, he runs of a four pounds lower mark than last time and can make the most of that here today
08-02
Musselburgh
1.00 Benjamin Tree 12/1
1.30 Vision De La Vie 7/2
2.00 Jetstream Jack 8/11
2.30 Harleys Max 5/1 3B
3.00 Almost Gemini 9/4
3.30 Lady Clitico 4/1
4.00 Motion To Strike 16/1
Fakenham
1.45 Astrum 5/2 NAP
2.20 Hollies Pearl 6/4 Tracker
2.50 Halo Moon 8/13
3.20 Lee Side Lady 5/2
3.50 Entry To Everywhere 11/2
4.20 Izbushka 9/2
Wolverhampton
2.10 Easydoesit 3/1 NB
2.40 Sunblazer 6/1
3.10 Sarmadee 7/1
3.40 Basil Berry 5/1
4.10 Top Offer 9/1
4.40 Baddilini 12/1
5.10 Secret Millionaire 9/1
A good weekends of racing, although I didn't follow much of yesterday's proceedings. Saturday though sprang some surprises and there was a good old shake-up in the antepost markets for a few races, most notably the Triumph.
Three meetings today and a best bet from each of them. We start at Fakenham where I fancy Donald McCain's Astrum to follow up his second from last month with a win. That was over the same trip and with Ronan Short taking off ten, he should have a good chance off top weight. The grey has been placed in half his starts all together, but in 66% over this distance and in five out of seven in this class. He should certainly be there or thereabouts.
Next we go to Wolverhampton where Easydoesit will look to continue Georgia Cox' excellent form in the saddle. Tom Carroll has won this race in the past two years and a four pound rise for the win at Lingfield doesn't look beyond this eight year old.
Harleys Max is the final selection in the 2.30 at Musselburgh. A winner on his only start over C&D, he runs of a four pounds lower mark than last time and can make the most of that here today
08-02
Musselburgh
1.00 Benjamin Tree 12/1
1.30 Vision De La Vie 7/2
2.00 Jetstream Jack 8/11
2.30 Harleys Max 5/1 3B
3.00 Almost Gemini 9/4
3.30 Lady Clitico 4/1
4.00 Motion To Strike 16/1
Fakenham
1.45 Astrum 5/2 NAP
2.20 Hollies Pearl 6/4 Tracker
2.50 Halo Moon 8/13
3.20 Lee Side Lady 5/2
3.50 Entry To Everywhere 11/2
4.20 Izbushka 9/2
Wolverhampton
2.10 Easydoesit 3/1 NB
2.40 Sunblazer 6/1
3.10 Sarmadee 7/1
3.40 Basil Berry 5/1
4.10 Top Offer 9/1
4.40 Baddilini 12/1
5.10 Secret Millionaire 9/1
Saturday, 6 February 2016
Reds Racing Tips 06-02
Morning all,
A great day yesterday, with the evening all-weather meetings giving us a cracking thirty points profit for the day. No such luck with the best three bets though as the NAP and the 3B both lost, and the NB was a non-runner.
Today holds some cracking racing in store with Grade Ones at Sandown and Leopardstown as well as a competitive racing at the other three meetings.
The NAP today runs at Sandown, in the last. Bon Enfant has won on both his starts over hurdles and should be able to make the step up to handicap company here for Warren Greatex. He stayed on strongly last time out at Wincanton and won at Fontwell over this distance and should be the one to beat in this race.
The Next Best comes from the Grade 2 at Wetherby. Native River ran well for third behind Tea for Two on King George day, but had won on his previous two starts before that. He brings solid form to the table, as well as the highest rating and I fancy Colin Tizzard's charge to enjoy the conditions here. This should be a cracking race though, with any of the six lining up in with a chance.
Finally we go to Ffos Las for the Welsh Champion Hurdle, where Deputy Dan is hoping to build on his two places behind Thistlecrack to go one better. He's ran well in defeat on both those occasions, having switched back to hurdles after a disappointing few outings over fences. He usually runs over further, but with conditions at Ffos Las sure to be testing, he should be able to call on his stamina to see out the trip in good fashion.
06-02
Sandown
12.40 Fingertips 2/1
1.15 Peace And Co 1/2 Tracker
1.50 Arthur's Oak 5/2
2.25 Tea For Two 6/4 Tracker
3.00 Saddlers Encore 8/1
3.30 Saroque 6/1
4.05 Bon Enfant 3/1 NAP
Leopardstown
12.55 Rashaan 25/1
1.25 Good As Gold 11/2
1.55 Bellshill 11/8 Tracker
2.30 Pont Alexandre 11/4 Tracker
3.05 My Painter 14/1
3.40 Valseur Lido 10/1 Tracker
4.15 Two Rockers 5/2
4.45 Blast of Koeman 5/1 Tracker
Wetherby
1.00 Pink Play 10/11
1.35 Friendly Royal 3/1
2.10 Bigirononhisship 11/4
2.45 Native River 7/2 NB
3.20 Waterclock 4/1
3.55 Palypso De Creek 11/10
4.30 Applaus 7/1
Lingfield
1.10 Mercury 10/1
1.45 My Call 15/2
2.20 Burning Thread 3/1
2.55 Lamar 11/2
3.30 Certificate 9/1
4.05 Medicean Queen 12/1
4.35 Saint Honore 4/1
Ffos Las
1.30 Mystical Knight 8/15
2.05 Deputy Dan 6/1 3B
2.40 Blackdown Hills 9/1
3.15 Red Devil Lads 13/2
3.50 Clyne 2/1
4.25 Morney Wing 6/1
4.55 Gayebury 2/1
A great day yesterday, with the evening all-weather meetings giving us a cracking thirty points profit for the day. No such luck with the best three bets though as the NAP and the 3B both lost, and the NB was a non-runner.
Today holds some cracking racing in store with Grade Ones at Sandown and Leopardstown as well as a competitive racing at the other three meetings.
The NAP today runs at Sandown, in the last. Bon Enfant has won on both his starts over hurdles and should be able to make the step up to handicap company here for Warren Greatex. He stayed on strongly last time out at Wincanton and won at Fontwell over this distance and should be the one to beat in this race.
The Next Best comes from the Grade 2 at Wetherby. Native River ran well for third behind Tea for Two on King George day, but had won on his previous two starts before that. He brings solid form to the table, as well as the highest rating and I fancy Colin Tizzard's charge to enjoy the conditions here. This should be a cracking race though, with any of the six lining up in with a chance.
Finally we go to Ffos Las for the Welsh Champion Hurdle, where Deputy Dan is hoping to build on his two places behind Thistlecrack to go one better. He's ran well in defeat on both those occasions, having switched back to hurdles after a disappointing few outings over fences. He usually runs over further, but with conditions at Ffos Las sure to be testing, he should be able to call on his stamina to see out the trip in good fashion.
06-02
Sandown
12.40 Fingertips 2/1
1.15 Peace And Co 1/2 Tracker
1.50 Arthur's Oak 5/2
2.25 Tea For Two 6/4 Tracker
3.00 Saddlers Encore 8/1
3.30 Saroque 6/1
4.05 Bon Enfant 3/1 NAP
Leopardstown
12.55 Rashaan 25/1
1.25 Good As Gold 11/2
1.55 Bellshill 11/8 Tracker
2.30 Pont Alexandre 11/4 Tracker
3.05 My Painter 14/1
3.40 Valseur Lido 10/1 Tracker
4.15 Two Rockers 5/2
4.45 Blast of Koeman 5/1 Tracker
Wetherby
1.00 Pink Play 10/11
1.35 Friendly Royal 3/1
2.10 Bigirononhisship 11/4
2.45 Native River 7/2 NB
3.20 Waterclock 4/1
3.55 Palypso De Creek 11/10
4.30 Applaus 7/1
Lingfield
1.10 Mercury 10/1
1.45 My Call 15/2
2.20 Burning Thread 3/1
2.55 Lamar 11/2
3.30 Certificate 9/1
4.05 Medicean Queen 12/1
4.35 Saint Honore 4/1
Ffos Las
1.30 Mystical Knight 8/15
2.05 Deputy Dan 6/1 3B
2.40 Blackdown Hills 9/1
3.15 Red Devil Lads 13/2
3.50 Clyne 2/1
4.25 Morney Wing 6/1
4.55 Gayebury 2/1
Friday, 5 February 2016
Weekend Preview 06/07 February
Weekend Preview - Sandown
Expected going: Hurdle soft straight heavy in places; back straight good to soft in places; chase good to soft-soft in places
By @Redgameracer
2.25 Scilly Isles Novice Chase (Grade 1)
2m 4f 10y
It's difficult to make an accurate observation on this race as quite a few of the Irish horse also hold entries to the Flogas Novice Chase over at Leopardstown on the same day. But let's see what we can do.
First let's look at the trends for this race. Favourites have won seven of the last ten and all ten have gone off at odds of 9/2 or less. Horses that have finished first or second last time out tend to do well, with nine out of ten winning. Seven out of ten winners posted an RPR of 144+ last time out. Seven out of ten had previously won over 2 mile, three furlongs. Finally four out of nine winners had previously won at Sandown, while the other five had their first run here.
At the top of the market currently, sits Tea for Two (1/1). Nick Williams' charge was impressive last time out winning at Kempton over three miles. But he has won over 2m3 before and he's a rightful favourite. Lizzie Kelly is a good jockey and she'll be on board again for this one. This will be a thorough test of his jumping, having never raced here before, but I feel he'll be up to the test. At even money though, it's not much of a bet.
The only other horse at a shortish price is Bristol De Mai (5/2). He hasn't been out of the frame in all five of his starts this season, winning his last two races in good style. Being a five year old, he gets a small weight allowance and that could well give him an advantage in this race. He has only placed on his two appearances here, including second to Ar Mad in December. Nigel Twiston-Davies' charge hasn't been jocked up yet, but you'd imagine he'll take his chance for this and at 5/2 best price he's a more attractive proposition.
Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race, but he's been out of form lately. He runs As De Mee (16/1), who is a course and distance winner, but comes here on the back of a fall. He's as big as 16/1 and that seems perfectly reasonable. He fell behind Tea for Two and was behind Bristol de Mai in that race that Ar Mad won. I can't see any reason why he would reverse that form.
Of the others, Bitofapuzzle (20/1) also holds an entry for the Towton at Wetherby, but could provide some EW value should she turn up here. Maximiser (16/1) comes here on the back of a fall and I'm not convinced he's good enough, while Ubak (33/1) has displayed some ropey jumping in the past which won't help him on this course.
For win purposes the battle will most likely be between Tea For Two and Bristol de Mai. Bitofapuzzle could provide the EW value should she turn up, but I'll side with Tea for Two in this one.
Weekend Preview - Leopardstown
Expected going: Soft - Soft to heavy in places
By @Redgameracer
12.55 Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m
Leopardstown starts off with the Spring Juvenile Hurdle and it looks an absolute cracker. You could probably make a case for most of these, so let's see if we can narrow it down a bit with the help of the past stats.
Favourites have won three out of the last ten which is a pretty interesting observation. Only three fillies have won it since 2002, but they haven't had many runners and all three were shorter than 14/1 by the off. There's four fillies in this race at this time, so that is an interesting statistic. Ten out of the last ten winners have been in the front two last time out, with six of them winning. Also, ten out of ten winners posted a RPR of 122 or higher, with six of them posting 128 or higher. Flat bred horses tend to do well with ten out of the last ten winners sired by a group winning stallion and a six out of the last seven winners were rated over 80 on the flat.
Top of the market at this time is Ivanovich Gorbatov (8/13). A highly rated flat horse (103 OR), he impressed in winning a maiden hurdle at this course on the 27th of December. That made him the hot favourite for the Triumph. A few of those in behind have won again since, including re-opposing fillies Lagostovegas and Tocororo. The favourites haven't got a great record in this race though and he will have to be something very special to follow up. His RPR last time was 134, so no concerns on that front.
Let's Dance (7/2) was second to the favourite at that Christmas meeting and she re-opposes here for Willie Mullins. She doesn't have the same flat pedigree, but is out of the same stallion as well established National Hunt performers like Don Poli and Roi Des Francs. With short priced fillies having a good record in this race, she could well be the one to upset the favourite, getting the seven pound fillies allowance. She just squeaks in on the RPR stat, with 123 last time out.
The next one in the market is also a filly, Jer's Girl (10/1). She has run on the flat, without too much conviction, but has since improved over obstacles winning twice, including a listed hurdle at Aintree, before coming a narrow second to Apple's Jade in a Grade 2 on Boxing Day. She only reached the low seventies on the flat, but her highest RPR is 132 and on that stat she's very much in the picture.
Footpad (14/1) is another for Willie Mullins here. He has won two out of his last three, finishing third behind Jer's Girl on the other occasion. A gelding who has never run on the flat, he has done pretty well on the ratings. The worry is however that he's already finished behind some of these and would need to do some improving to overturn them.
The final Mullins entry is Allblak Des Places (16/1). He kept on wellt o win his race last time out, but that wasn't a strong race and this is a big step up. One more for the future perhaps than the present.
To round it off, we have Rashaan (20/1), Lagostovegas (25/1). Those two could spring a surprise. Rashaan had been impressive until running poorly at the Christmas meeting and if he can regain his form, he will be a player. From an unfancied yard perhaps, but if he was with say Mullins or Elliot, he'd be a shorter price, I think. Lagostovegas finally broke her duck over hurdles last time out at Naas, but the concern is that she's already finished behind a few of these on a number of occasions and I don't think she's progressive enough to advance past them. Best Kept Secret is the rank outsider of this field and I can't see him being involved.
In closing, I think the top two in the market are the most likely winners, but with the stats not pointing to the favourite, I'd chance Let's Dance as a win only bet. If you're looking for something each way, then Rashaan at 20/1 has to be value if you can forgive him his Christmas run.
1.55 Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m 2f
Only five are set to go in this race, but it's five quality horses that line up. Willie Mullins has three in the race at the time of writing, with Bellshill (6/4) the current market favourite. Ruby Walsh is set to take the ride for the Wylie's and their charge is on a four race unbeaten streak. The last three over hurdles, he has won by a cumulative distance of 26 lenghts, but he may face some stronger competition here.
Tombstone (2/1) will line up for Gordon Elliot and is not without a chance. He was narrowly beaten by Long Dog at the Christmas meeting, but didn't lose anything in defeat and could well go forward from that. Unlike his market rival, who has won over further and shorter, Tombstone has won over this distance previously. He'll be sporting a first time hood to keep him focussed and if it has the desired effect, he could well overturn the fav and shorten in the Supreme market.
Coney Island (7/1), Petit Mouchoir (8/1) and Bleu et Rouge (20/1) complete the field. As the odds and indeed the ratings imply, they have something to find with the front two on the bare form, with Coney Island only rated 130 compared to Bellshill's 150.
I think this race will be between the front two in the market, and although I like Bellshill, I think he'll prefer further, so I'll side with Tombstone to win this one.
2.30 Flogas Novice Chase (Grade 1)
2m 5f 60y
The Flogas Novice chase is next and although there are no prices up yet, I'd expect Outlander and Pont Alexandre to vie for favouritism here. Willie Mullins trains both and also has McKinley entered here. I don't think the latter will go close despite winning last time out. Outlander steps up to this distance for the first time over fences, having won over slightly shorter on his previous two starts, while Pont Alexandre drops down in trip from the 3 miles where he finished second behind Roi des Francs. He won impressive on his reappearance from a long absence and is clearly a classy animal, but you'd have to wonder how fit he is considering that long lay off.
The interesting one, is Zabana for Andrew Lynch. He won on chase debut at this track over Christmas and has been shortening remarkably for the JLT in the past few days. A good showing here could further enhance his claims, but he'll need to step up to show he's good enough to beat the front two in the market.
Monksland has struggled to get his head in front and Noel Meade despite beating Roi Des Francs at Gowran in November. I don't think he'll break that rut here. Blair Perrone is not good enough to win this.
With no prices available at this time, I'm going to go with the tissue paper prices and I think Outlander at 9/4 could be a good bet. Step up in trip isn't a concern while I think Pont Alexandre has questions to answer. They also won't want to give him too hard a ride and Outlander could well profit from that.
3.40 Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1)
3m 60y
The market seems to suggest that this is all about Road To Riches (4/5) and I can't really disagree. Last year's Gold Cup third was impressive in winning the Clonmel Oil Chase and takes on a field of ten here. He's got form over track and trip as well as conditions and I think he's the one to beat.
That doesn't stop me looking for some value though and I think both First Lieutenant (10/1) and Valseur Lido (12/1) will give a good account. The former was hit with a hefty raise in the weights after his second to Don Poli in the Lexus, but he's the type that keeps plugging away all the way to the line and at 10/1, he's going to give you a run for your money. The latter fell in the King George after an uncharacteristically sluggish performance, but time is still on his side and he could bounce back to form here.
Of the others, I don't hold Gilgamboa (9/1) or Carlingford Lough (20/1) in very high regard, while Sir Des Champs (20/1) has questions to answer after disappointing last time out. Foxrock is too short for my liking to get involved and I don't think the others will vie for the places.
Reds Racing Tips 05-02
Morning all,
Only a winning Next Best yesterday, but still ten points profit overall for the day. It's been a great start to the month so far and fingers cross we can keep it going.
We go to Catterick for the NAP today. Special Wells can take advantage of a sliding mark, having not run that badly in defeat last time out at Haydock where he was hampered. Sue Smith has an excellent record in February, especially in Handicap Chases, so this one is one to watch for this race.
The Next best runs at Chepstow, where Nansaroy is a big price at 4/1. He's won on his only appearance here, over C&D and has an excellent record in the conditions. He was a beaten second when unseating last time out at Haydock, but the winner of that has gone in again since. Given his evident potential, he could go better today
The third best runs in the last race of the day at Dundalk. Cristy's Call has got a good record on the course and ran into a well handicapped one last time out, two weeks ago. Off the same mark as that time, he has an excellent chance of going one better.
05-02
Catterick
1.20 Our Thomas 11/8
1.50 Casual Cavalier 7/1
2.25 Auldthunder 10/3
2.55 Omid 8/1
3.25 Double W's 15/8
4.00 Special Wells 7/2 NAP
4.30 Mazovian 1/1
Chepstow
1.40 Nansaroy 4/1 NB
2.10 Lockstockandbarrel 7/2
2.45 Stop The Press 11/2
3.15 Third Act 16/1
3.50 Ayalor 4/1
4.20 Pure Poteen 13/2
4.50 Pride of Lecale 9/2
Lingfield
2.00 Skidby Mill 13/2
2.35 The Tichborne 14/1
3.05 Ms Gillard 15/2
3.40 Foxinthehenhouse 11/1
4.10 Justice Lady 13/8
4.40 Trending 3/1
Wolverhampton
5.15 Jaarih 4/1
5.45 Evacusafe Lady 9/1
6.15 Vastly 20/1
6.45 Berlusca 5/1
7.15 Dangerous Thought 13/8
7.45 Jumbo Prado 11/4
Dundalk
5.30 Split The Atom 7/2
6.00 Captain Midnight 3/1
6.30 Love In The Sun 11/4
7.00 Party Angel 12/1
7.30 Spruce Meadows 5/2
8.00 Alnahar 7/1
8.30 Song Of Love 6/1
9.00 Cristy's Call 8/1 3B
Only a winning Next Best yesterday, but still ten points profit overall for the day. It's been a great start to the month so far and fingers cross we can keep it going.
We go to Catterick for the NAP today. Special Wells can take advantage of a sliding mark, having not run that badly in defeat last time out at Haydock where he was hampered. Sue Smith has an excellent record in February, especially in Handicap Chases, so this one is one to watch for this race.
The Next best runs at Chepstow, where Nansaroy is a big price at 4/1. He's won on his only appearance here, over C&D and has an excellent record in the conditions. He was a beaten second when unseating last time out at Haydock, but the winner of that has gone in again since. Given his evident potential, he could go better today
The third best runs in the last race of the day at Dundalk. Cristy's Call has got a good record on the course and ran into a well handicapped one last time out, two weeks ago. Off the same mark as that time, he has an excellent chance of going one better.
05-02
Catterick
1.20 Our Thomas 11/8
1.50 Casual Cavalier 7/1
2.25 Auldthunder 10/3
2.55 Omid 8/1
3.25 Double W's 15/8
4.00 Special Wells 7/2 NAP
4.30 Mazovian 1/1
Chepstow
1.40 Nansaroy 4/1 NB
2.10 Lockstockandbarrel 7/2
2.45 Stop The Press 11/2
3.15 Third Act 16/1
3.50 Ayalor 4/1
4.20 Pure Poteen 13/2
4.50 Pride of Lecale 9/2
Lingfield
2.00 Skidby Mill 13/2
2.35 The Tichborne 14/1
3.05 Ms Gillard 15/2
3.40 Foxinthehenhouse 11/1
4.10 Justice Lady 13/8
4.40 Trending 3/1
Wolverhampton
5.15 Jaarih 4/1
5.45 Evacusafe Lady 9/1
6.15 Vastly 20/1
6.45 Berlusca 5/1
7.15 Dangerous Thought 13/8
7.45 Jumbo Prado 11/4
Dundalk
5.30 Split The Atom 7/2
6.00 Captain Midnight 3/1
6.30 Love In The Sun 11/4
7.00 Party Angel 12/1
7.30 Spruce Meadows 5/2
8.00 Alnahar 7/1
8.30 Song Of Love 6/1
9.00 Cristy's Call 8/1 3B
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