Sunday, 6 March 2016

Reds Racing Tips 06-03

Morning all,

A somewhat disappointing day yesterday although the loss was limited to a mere three points. The NAP unfortunately went wrong, finishing 99 lengths behind. Luke Morris was given a ban for bringing her home instead of pulling her up and I'm not sure I agree with that. The vets couldn't make the determination she was lame at first, so how was the jockey supposed to do that. If he had pulled her up and she wasn't lame, he'd have been in trouble as well. It's a funny old game and it puts the jockey in an impossible position. I'd expect to see his ban overturned or at least severely reduced. Aside from that, the NB came second, but the 3B was an impressive winner at 13/2. 

It's Mother's Day today, so most of my time has been spent preparing breakfast for the wife with the kids, so please take that into account if you want to follow the selections! As such, there's no best three today either. Have a good day all and enjoy it with your families where ever you are.

06-03
Huntingdon
2.00 Red Hammer 5/2
2.30 Virtuose du Chenet 7/2
3.00 Clonusker 15/2
3.30 Arbeo  9/2
4.00 Notebook 5/1
4.30 Song Saa 7/4
5.00 Laval Noir 10/1

Naas
2.10 Gurteen 7/4
2.40 Sub Lieutenant 9/1
3.10 A Great View 6/1
3.40 Wes Hardin  3/1
4.10 A Genie In Abottle 2/1
4.40 Goonyella 10/1 Tracker
5.10 She's A Star 11/4

Sedgefield
2.20 Ryedale Racer 11/8
2.50 Moscow Presents 4/1
3.20 Auldthunder 5/2
3.50 Libby Mae 5/2
4.20 Dalby Spook 14/1
4.50 Hellorboston 4/1
5.20 Moscow Calling 6/4

Saturday, 5 March 2016

Reds Racing Tips 05-03

Morning all,

The poor start to the month continued yesterday, with another six point loss to take us to -22 for the month. Once again the NAP hit the post, finishing second (thats four in five this week coming second), while the other two both disappointed. 

Today's racing sees a massive six cards and it was quite a slog going through them all. I hope I've done them justice. I've got three tracker horses going today and all three should at least have a reasonable chance to go close. This close to Cheltenham, it's not a surprise to see the standard dropping a bit, but there's still some great horses out like Many Clouds and the Druids Nephew as they step up their preparations for the big one at Aintree. Lingfield has a cracker of a card as well on the all-weather.

We start at Lingfield where Apache Glory is the NAP. She won over C&D here last time out and she showed a great turn of foot that day, beating a useful sort in Cartographic. Luke Morris takes the ride again and despite a three lbs raise in the weights, I think she's good enough to follow up.

Next we go to the last at Stratford, where Venetia Williams only horse to run is One Style. He is closely related to More of That and Charlie Deutsch treks over from racing at Newbury earlier to come and take this ride. Although both starts in England have been below par so far, I feel he is the most likely winner if he can reproduce his French form. 

Finally, the third selection comes from the opener at Doncaster, where Upsilon Bleu is overpriced. He comes here off top weight, but is three lbs below his last winning mark and will enjoy the soft conditions. He was well backed last time out over fences, but couldn't show anything like his best form and I'm hoping for a bounce back here.

05-03
Newbury
1.45 Bonobo 12/1
2.15 Shotavodka 9/1
2.50 Forest Bihan 14/1
3.25 Generous Ransom 10/1 Tracker
4.00 Itsnowcato 6/1
4.35 Hughesie 7/2
5.10 Pure Vision 6/1

Lingfield
1.55 Apache Glory 11/4 NAP
2.30 Unforgiving Minute 8/1
3.05 Dangerous Thought 7/4
3.40 Bosham 8/1
4.15 Sea of Flames 9/1
4.50 Charlie Lad 5/2
5.25 Ninepointsixthree 8/1

Doncaster
2.00 Upsilon Bleu 13/2 3B
2.35 Waterclock 5/1
3.10 Hollies Pearl 7/1 Tracker
3.45 The Druids Nephew 6/1 Tracker
4.20 Cracked Rear View 11/8
4.55 Rocklim 5/2
5.30 Midnight Maestro 11/4

Kelso
2.05 Imada 11/4
2.40 Morning Royalty 6/4
3.15 Le Prezien 15/8
3.50 Many Clouds 4/7
4.25 Harleys Max 11/2
5.00 Trespassers Will 5/1

Gowran Park
2.10 Kings Line 4/1
2.45 Wild Flyer 18/1
3.20 Spring Forward 6/1
3.55 Toubaloo 11/2
4.30 Goulane's Chosen 11/4
5.05 Salsify 4/5
5.40 Carrig Cathal 5/2

Stratford
2.20 For Goodness Sake 10/3
2.55 Neworld 2/1
3.30 Pursuitofhappiness 7/1
4.05 Knight Bachelor 9/2
4.40 Thinger Licht 15/8
5.15 One Style 10/3 NB

Friday, 4 March 2016

Reds Racing Tips 04-03

Morning all, 

Only a dismal three winners yesterday sending me back home with a 20 point loss for the day. The NAP once again fell short and for the third time this week finished second. The NB did manage to put a bit of a smile on my face, winning well over at Taunton, but the 3B also disappointed and was pulled up.

Big day today, with good cards at Doncaster and Newbury. The latter meeting has one tracker horse running in Beggars Cross for Jonjo O'Neil with Aiden Coleman riding. He fell last time out, but hopefully he can improve a bit today.

The best three bets come from Lingfield and Doncaster and we start at the former where Inaam is the NAP for Richard Fahey. He won well over C&D last time out, staying on strongly under the same jockey and he seems to have found his groove now. 

The NB comes one race earlier at the same venue and Clement was perhaps a tad unlucky in the running last time out to be denied the four timer. He's in here off bottom weight, with Patrick Pilley taking another five off so he should be well in at the weights. With a clear run you'd have to fancy him to go close and score for the fourth time in five races.

Finally, we take the opener at Donny where Pied Du Roi has found a good opening. Charlie Longsdon's charge has been in decent nick, albeit unsuited by the way the race was ran last time out. Leading Northern jockey Brian Hughes takes the ride and he's been in good form of late. He has to shoulder top weight, but the return to good ground should be a bonus and he could well defy the burden.

04-03
Lingfield
2.00 Free Running 10/11
2.30 Flinty Fell 16/1
3.05 What A Party 15/2
3.40 Clement 9/2 NB
4.10 Inaam 7/4 NAP
4.45 Pechora 5/4

Doncaster
2.10 Pied Du Roi 7/1 3B
2.40 Oscar O'scar 9/4
3.15 Mo Chailin 14/1
3.50 Presenting Arms 3/1
4.20 Unbuckled 5/1
4.55 Paris Snow 4/1
5.25 Shrewd 11/8

Newbury
2.20 Zante  14/1
2.50 Beggars Cross 16/1 Tracker
3.25 Festive Affair 7/1
4.00 Nitrogen 10/3
4.30 Mountain Eagle 5/2
5.05 Monetary Fund 6/1
5.35 Only For Love 5/2

Wolverhampton
5.45 Oakley Star 9/1
6.15 Israfel 2/1
6.45 Wolowitz 10/3
7.15 Eastern Dragon 11/8
7.45 All You 8/1
8.15 Bond Trader 15/2

Dundalk
6.00 Split The Atom 6/1
6.30 McGuigan 13/2
7.00 Drillmaster 7/1
7.30 Clear Cut 4/5
8.00 Political Policy 13/2
8.30 Sea of Blue 11/2
9.00 Mr Boss Man 9/1

Please note, selections priced at 5/1 or greater are 1pt EW, while selections priced smaller than 5/1 are 2pts win.

Thursday, 3 March 2016

Reds Racing Tips 03-03

Morning all,

a ten point profit for the day on Wednesday and a winning NB at 4/1, but disappointment from the other two. The NAP was utterly disappointing despite showing promise on paper and the 3B finished in similar fashion.

The best three selections tomorrow come from Taunton and Ludlow. We start in the opener at Taunton where Ministerofinterior is two from two over this distance and his recent form stacks up well. Ciaran Gethings is an excellent jockey and he claims off five lbs. That puts him level with his market rival Lac Sacre and that could well be enough for the selection to claim the spoils

We stay at Taunton for the 5.00 where Agincourt Reef is the selection for Gary and Joshua Moore. He shaped well over fences last time out, although he raced lazily. The headgear should help with that this time. He has to see off the competition of course specialist Ballyegan, but I think the Moore's runner is the one to win this.

Finally we go to Ludlow where Truckers Highway is a big price at 9/1. He was last three in his previous race off his higher mark, but he didn't run a bad race in defeat. He could well run another good race here and at the prices he's a decent EW bet.

03-03
Southwell
1.45 Feeling Dicky 16/1
2.15 Spice Mill 5/1
2.50 Spitfire 8/1
3.25 Weald of Kent 9/2
4.00 Rosie Royale 12/1
4.35 Best Tamayuz 9/1

Ludlow
1.55 Diamond Rock 14/1
2.30 Max Forte 9/1
3.05 Truckers Highway 9/1 3B
3.40 Sun Cloud 7/1
4.15 Lady of Longstone 12/1
4.50 Monkey Kingdom 2/1
5.25 Guantoshol  9/1

Taunton
2.05 Ministerofinterior 7/2 NAP
2.40 Justatenner 8/1
3.15 A Plein Temps 9/4
3.50 Nitrogen 3/1
4.25 Impulsive American 15/8
5.00 Agincourt Reef 9/4 NB
5.35 On The Road 4/6

Chelmsford City
6.05 Presto Boy 4/1
6.40 Basma 11/2
7.10 Clockmaker 11/2
7.40 Pinzolo 13/8
8.10 Dark Illustrator 13/2
8.40 Oak Bluffs 11/1
9.10 Sudden Wish 6/1

Please note, selections priced at 5/1 or greater are 1pt EW, while selections priced smaller than 5/1 are 2pts win.

Wednesday, 2 March 2016

February Review

Hi all,

Time for the February Review. I put up tips for 632 races, staking a total amount of 1264 points. In those, I managed to find 151 winners at a strike rate of 23.89%. That's ever so slightly up on last month, but only by 0.65 percentage points. I also managed to find 156 places, at 24.68%, down 0.03 percentage points. Bets at 5/1 or greater are a point each way and of the 156 that placed, 65 were tipped as an each way bet. That's an improvement since last month I only had 55 out of 151 places as an each way bet. In total, that makes 206 selections returning a profit, a rate of 32.59% (compared to 32.24% last month).

Not much difference then in the percentage stakes, but if we look at the actual numbers, there's a massive upturn. The month ended with a profit of 115.80 points, an increase of 93.44 points compared to last month. That makes for a return on investment of 9.16%, a much improved effort from last month's 1.83%.

The jumps again shone, with 95 winners over obstacles compared to 56 on the all-weather, but  the biggest winner was Vastly at Wolverhampton on the 5th, returning a price of 20/1, followed by Chase the Spud on Valentine's day at 18/1. The biggest winning day came on the 8th with a return of 34.38 poitns, mainly thanks to Wolverhampton returning 28 of those. The worst day was the 12th, losing me a total of 39.20 points. 

That Wolverhampton meeting wasn't the biggest winner, that honour went to Southwell's All-Weather meeting on the second when I found winners at 5/1 (drifted from 11/4), 13/2, 12/1 and 6/1 as well as a 6/1 place to return 28.40 points. 

The best three bets of the day were not that good at all! The NAP scored only 20% of the time, the NB 28% and the 3B a miserable 13.64%. Both the NAP and the NB had a tendency to place however, but since they were usually win only bets, that didn't help me at all.

As always if you have any questions or comments or a particular stat you'd like me to dig up, feel free to find me on twitter, @Redgameracer

Reds Racing Tips 02-03

Morning all, 

A slow start to the month, with a 6 point loss and the NAP and the NB both finishing second. The 3B was disappointing and couldn't even hit the frame. Still a couple of tasty priced winners in More Spice (5/1) and Fleckerl (13/2) at Lingfield to make sure the day wasn't a complete dud.

Today's meeting at Downpatrick has been abandoned due to snow, so that leaves us with three afternoon and one evening meeting. We start at Bangor for the NAP. Bellator is Nicky Henderson's only runner today and he is an interesting one on debut. Nico de Boinville rides and this well related gelding should be an interesting proposition on his rules debut.

We go to the opener at Wolverhampton next where Point North is the pick. He's gone up four lbs for his latest win, but that was a comfortable one and it's not an overtly harsh rise. That was over C&D and with Danny Tudhope retaining the ride, he's taken to follow up.

Finally, in Wincanton's 3.55, I think Eminent Poet is a big price at 9/1. He had won two starts before stepping up in trip and class last time out and not getting home. Back down in distance and class today and back under Aiden Coleman, he could well bounce back. Softer ground today should help again as well at I think the price is simply to big too pass up.

02-03
Bangor
2.00 Theatrical Style 11/4
2.30 Bellator 7/2 NAP
3.05 Pembroke House 7/1
3.40 Bobble Boru 4/1
4.15 Nalim 6/1
4.50 The Pierre Lark 11/8

Wincanton
2.10 Biretta 15/2
2.45 La Vaticane 11/4
3.20 Big Fella Thanks 13/8
3.55 Eminent Poet 9/1
4.30 Bugsie Malone 7/4
5.05 Royal Salute 6/1 

Wolverhampton
2.20 Point North 4/1 NB
2.55 Israfel 5/1
3.30 Edgar  3/1
4.05 Je T'Aime Encore 16/1
4.40 Depth Charge 12/1
5.15 Our Little Sister 11/2

Kempton
5.45 Pyla 8/1
6.15 Burcan 3/1
6.45 Charlies Mate 9/1
7.15 Subtle Knife 8/1
7.45 Shirataki 4/1
8.15 Chelwood Gate 14/1
8.45 Justice Lady 8/13

Tuesday, 1 March 2016

Reds Racing Tips 01-03

Morning all,

A small profit to end the month yesterday. I'll put up a results summary later, so look out for that. Despite a profit, it was another dud for the best three. I seem to be in a bit of a rut with them. But we'll soldier on and keep going.

I've got three again today, and we start at Catterick where General Mahler is the pick in the second race. He's getting better and better all the time and having finished third to Jetstream Jack last time out, he can step up today. Danny Cook is a good jockey and Brian Ellison's yard is hitting form lately, so hopefully this one can do the goods.

Global Dream is the pick in the second at Leicester. He has won on his last two starts, both at this track and under the same jockey. It's a step up in trip, but he should be able to manage that and in his current form, he could well go close despite top weight.

Finally, I'm going to take a chance on India's Song in the 4.10 at Lingfield. I think Volunteer Point is the better horse, but at the prices, I think India's Song is the better bet. She's as big as 7/1 and has been in the front two on her last three starts. Jamie Spencer takes the ride for Donald Simcock and that has been a winning combination on a number of occasions. 

01-03
Catterick
2.00 Cumbrian Farmer 13/2
2.30 General Mahler 11/4 NAP
3.00 Myrtle Drive 9/2
3.30 Bollin Line 15/8
4.00 High Hopper 5/1
4.30 Bespoke Lady 6/1
5.00 Turtle Cask  14/1

Lingfield
2.10 Haunted 33/1
2.40 Fleckerl 13/2
3.10 With Hindsight 9/4
3.40 I'm Harry 11/1
4.10 India's Song 7/1 3B
4.40 More Spice 5/1
5.10 Eastern Dragon 8/11

Leicester
2.20 Lord Landen 4/1
2.50 Global Dream 7/2 NB
3.20 Warne 15/2
3.50 Lockstockandbarrel 1/2
4.20 Man of Steel 7/2
4.50 Genstone Trail 9/4