Evening all,
Blog with a bit of a difference tonight as I look just to one card tomorrow, the final jumps meeting of the year at Sandown. There's plenty at stake, with a Listed Hurdle, a Grade 3 Handicap, and Grade 1 and 2 races as well as the Trainer's Championship that will be decided. I think Paul Nicholls may just hang onto his title, but it's been a phenomenal effort by Willie Mullins, considering he hasn't really targeted the title until the Aintree meeting.
Over to the racing though and we start with the Juvenile Handicap Hurdle over two miles. Both title chasers have a runner each with Voix de Reve lining up for Mullins and Tommy Silver for Nicholls. The former was going very well in the Fred Winter prior coming to grief and could well have won that race but for his fall at the last. He has to contend with top weight though and although David Mullins takes three off, that could well be enough to scupper his bid for victory. Nicholls' runner lined up in the Triumph instead, but couldn't make much of an impact against the runaway winner. He was sixteen lengths behind at the finish, but had been showing plenty of potential at Newbury and Musselburgh prior to that. Ashoka, Duke Street and Darebin are all runners with place claims. The first lines up for the in-form Skelton team and makes his handicap bow. Duke Street did well to romp away with the spoils over a slightly longer trip at Newbury while the Darebin is the only C&D winner in the field for Gary Moore. If I had to pick one though, it would be Wolf of Windlesham. He won twice over hurdles in the autumn, both times at a big price, before being tailed off in heavy ground at Cheltenham. He made a winning reappearance on the all-weather subsequently and the return to good ground will stand him in good stead. At 11/1, he is the value pick for me.
We go on to the Oaksey Chase, a Grade two over two miles and six furlongs. Two here for Mullins, including hot favourite Valseur Lido. Frankly, I struggle to see him beaten here. He was second to the rampant Vautour in the Ryanair and comes here incredibly well weighted compared to his rivals. Mullins other runner Ballycasey has not turned out the horse that many had hoped and I don't think he'll challenge for honours here. Paul Nicholls has three in the race and his best chance lies with Saphir du Rheu. Once touted as a rising star, he has disappointed this season, but perhaps first time blinkers can spark some improvement. I don't think he'll beat Valseur Lido though. Of the other runners, Menorah will appreciate the better ground and he's likely been targeted at this race with champion jockey Richard Johnson on board.
Next to the Grade One Celebration Chase and it looks to be a fascinating rematch of the Champion Chase between Sprinter Sacre and Un de Sceaux. Both have marks against rather than for them in this race. We'll start with the public's hero, Sprinter Sacre. He seems best caught fresh these days, but the going seems to be likely more in his favour than his main market rival's. Sprinter also loves Cheltenham more than anywhere as he excels up that hill. Mullins will hope that Un De Sceaux can defy the better ground and hopefully get an easy lead. The absence of Special Tiara is a big boost in that sense. Both horses are excellent jumpers although UDS tends to be a risky jumper, but if it comes off here, he could well claim the spoils. If these two stay upright though, the rest of the field (including three Nicholls horses) are fighting for third at best. I'm going to go for Un De Sceaux, despite the conditions as I think he'll be better suited by the quick jumps down the back straight and the likely lead.
Both men have runners in the most valuable race of the day, the Bet365 Gold Cup, with Nicholls' Southfield Theatre at the top of the market. He's been aimed at this race and is sure to give a good account. It's an incredibly open race though, but I'm going to take two against the field. I like the chances of Theatre Guide. He ran a great race in the BetBright chase, before falling at the festival, but is hardy sort and will be suited by this distance. He's had a great season, the Tizzard yard is still flying and Paddy Brennan has enjoyed some great days as well. The other one is a bit of an ambitious effort, but I think Oscar Rock can go well. He's a big price and does have his stamina to prove over this trip, but Malcolm Jefferson has his yard in good form and this is his only runner on the card. At 33/1, I'm happy to stick a quid each way on and see how he goes.
The listed hurdle is all about Mullins again. Vroum Vroum Mag is a very classy mare and is still unbeaten for her trainer. She's a short price, but on the back of her impressive Cheltenham win, I think that's justified. She takes on the boys for the first time, but this is probably her optimum trip and I wouldn't be surprised if she dealt with these. Ptit Zig is one of three Nicholls runners and makes appeal on his second in the Cleeve Hurdle behind the rampant Thistlecrack. That effort came after losing his way a bit over fences, but he hasn't won a hurldes race in a long while and that would be a concern. Vaniteux looked set for second in the Arkle before falling, but he's charting new territory over this distance and I think he is better of over a shorter trip.
Nicholls seems to hold all the cards in the Novice chase, with the top two in the betting, Calipto and Some Buckle. Of the two, the latter would have my preference after his good win last time out and would probably be my selection to claw some cash back for Nicholls. Don't rule out C&D winner Antony at a big price though. Gary Moore's charge was an impressive winner back in November and returns here having had a pipe opener at Kempton.
Finally the crap shoot of a Handicap Hurdle with twenty runners to sort out. Three for Mullins and four for Nicholls and all seven could well contest the finish. Mullins best hope could well lie with handicap debutant Bellow Mome. He is seeking a hattrick under Paul Townend and could have anything in hand on his debut in this sort of race. Red Hanrahan is probably Nicholls best bet, as I don't rate Qualando. But if I'm picking a couple against the field, I'm once again putting my faith in Paddy & Colin. Royal Vacation is also chasing a hattrick with his defeats this season coming against the likes of Yanworth & Champers On Ice. He seems fairly weighted to compete and I'd like to see the connections finish their season with another race win. At a price though, I can't rule out Mad Jack Mytton. I've been putting him up in handicap hurdles all season and I'm going to give him one more poke. He has the ability and his finishes of 00U don't tell the full story of his runs. He;s caught the eye on occasions and Jonjo O'Neill is coming right at this time of year. Richard Johnson has been booked and it would be great for the champ to end with a winner.
2.20 Wolf of Windlesham 11/1
2.55 Valseur Lido 5/6
3.35 Un de Sceaux 6/4
4.10 Theatre Guide 16/1, Oscar Rock 33/1
4.45 Vroum Vroum Mag 8/11
5.20 Some Buckle 11/2
5.55 Royal Vacation 14/1, Mad Jack Mytton 20/1
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