Euro 2016: Day Three

Hi all,

Day three of the Euro 2016 sees world champions Germany start of their campaign in the 8 o'clock kick off. The three-times Euro winners had a stumbling qualifying campaign, which saw them beaten by Ireland and Poland as well as being held to a draw by the Irish. Their pre-tournament friendlies weren't much better either, with losses to France, England and Slovakia, They did beat Italy comprehensively 4-1 though and if that German side turns up, they will go far. One thing that's extremely important to remember about the Germans, is that they flourish in tournaments. They have not finished outside the top three in major tournaments since the 2004 Euro's when they were eliminated in the group stages. To write them off therefore, would be foolish. Like many of the major teams, their strongest suit seems to be in midfield where they have plenty of creativity and quality. The back four is solid enough and they have a quality goalkeeper in Manuel Neuer. The inclusion of Mario Gomez in the squad means they have an out and out striker as well, although Gomez has not been flourishing for the national team. Thomas Muller will probably start up front and is one of those who always gets goals on the big stage. He's available at 17/11 to score at anytime or 41/10 to score first.

Their opponents Ukraine are a mixed bag. They qualified through the play-offs, beating Slovenia, after finishing third behind Spain and Slovakia in the group stages. They have got some wonderful players in the squad, the likes of Yarmolenko and Konoplyanka and also striker Zozulya. Their defence though, look shaky to me. They conceded three against an average Romania side in the build up to this tournament and the Germans have more than enough quality to unlock them. Germany and Over 2.5 goals is 6/4 and I think that's a pretty good price.

The day kicks off with my dark horses for the tournament, Croatia, taking on Turkey in Group D. I think the Croatians have a fantastic chance to go far in the tournament. They have a magnificent midfield that offers both solidity and creativity and solid if unspectacular defence. They outscored and conceded less than qualifying group winners Italy, but the Italians managed to remain unbeaten while the Croats lost against Norway to see them finish second. They finished their preparations by putting ten past San Marino and although that doesn't say much, it'll be a nice confidence boost going into the tournament. A lot of their fortunes will depend on Mario Mandzukic. The 30-year old Juventus striker is likely to be first choice and should get quality service from the likes of Rakitic, Modrid and Perisic. The latter could even take matters in his own hands and at 10/1 is a cracking bet to open the scoring. (or 3/1 anytime). The Turks meanwhile got in by the virtue of being the highest placed third team after pipping a dismal Dutch side in Group A. That said, they were far from impressive in qualifying and will need to step up on their efforts to get anything from this game.

The final match on Sunday sees Poland take on Northern Ireland and I can't see anything other than a Poland win here. Northern Ireland may have topped their group, but for all intents and purposes it was desperately weak and Poland scored 33 in qualifying (although 15 of those were against Gibraltar). Will Grigg may be on fire, but he's no Robert Lewandowski, who had thirteen goals in qualifying and a hatful this season in club football. I can see the Bayern striker making hay here and he's 9/2 to score two or more and 3/1 to open the scoring. Equally, Poland to win and Lewandowski to score is 13/8 with Paddy Power and I'll be availing myself to some of that.

Bets:
Germany v Ukraine
Germany to win and Over 2.5 goals @ 6/4
Thomas Muller Anytime Goal Scoer @ 17/11

Croatia v Turkey
Croatia to Win @ 6/5
Ivan Perisic to score first @ 10/1

Poland v Northern Ireland
Poland win & Lewandowski to score @ 13/8
Lewandowski to score 2 or more @ 9/2