Euro 2016: Day Five

Morning all,

Only two games today as we get the chance to see the teams in Group F at work for the first time. The first match in the group sees Austria take on Hungary and I can only see one outcome in this game. The Austrians qualified top of their group, which also included the likes of Russia and Sweden, dropping only one point against the Swedes in the process. Marcel Koller's side plays a pretty solid game although their results in friendlies leading up to the tournament have been less than spectacular. But they have plenty of quality in their side all the way through, from Dragovic at the back, through Alaba & Baumgartlinger in the middle to Marc Janko up top.

Hungary on the other hand are one of the weakest squads in the competition. They struggled through in third in a very weak group topped by Northern Ireland and then managed to get past Norway in the playoffs. Their squad is 'experienced', but rather lacking in quality. I can see Austria going to town here. Austria to win is not the greatest price around, but Austria -1 is available at 23/10. It does mean Austria have to win by two clear goals, but I can't see that being too much of a problem for this side. Alternatively, Austria/Austria on the HT/FT market is 19/10 and that is another price that works for me.

The second game of the day sees Iceland take on Portugal and I quietly fancy the latter to take the whole thing. They were unspectacular in qualifying, but lost only one match (the opener against Albania). Their wins were laboured at times, with goals often coming late on, but at the same time, I like that. They're happy to sit and wait for their opportunity. At the same time, they have shown some improvement lately on the goalscoring front, putting three past Norway and seven past Estonia. They did lose to England in between, but that was to a late goal, having played most of the game without Bruno Alves who was sent off. Their discipline and ageing back line is a concern (most of them are over 30), but they do have one man who can make the difference like no other. Cristiano Ronaldo of course. He had a bit of a break after a long season with Real, but grabbed two against Estonia in 45 minutes.

Conversely, Iceland, after initially impressing in qualifying, beating Holland twice without reply, slumped late on, getting only two points from an available nine in the last three games. That included giving away a two-goal lead over Latvia and they've looked equally shaky in their friendlies since. That will cost them against the wily Portuguese. 8/15 for Portugal to win is no price, but the Draw/Portugal on the HT/FT market looks alright to me at 16/5 with Betfair. Equally, I can't see Portugal cutting loose, so Portugal to win and under 2.5 goals at odds of 23/10 seem fair.

Bets:
Austria v Hungary
Austria -1 @ 23/10
Austria/Austria HT/FT @ 19/10

Portugal v Iceland
Draw/Portugal HT/FT @ 16/5
Portugal win & U2.5 goals @ 23/10