Euro 2016: Day Eight

Morning all,

back after yesterday's absence for day eight of our football feast and it kicks off on Friday with Italy against Sweden. I sounded a cautionary note about writing off Italy's chances before the Belgium game and they showed why. They were under the cosh for large parts of the game, but in typical Italian fashion, they scored two goals despite rarely venturing forward. That said, Belgium were not at their best, with both Lukaku and De Bruyne disappointing going forward. Equally for Sweden, Zlatan was poor and Sweden really need to go forward and get a result to have any chance of progressing. That will play right into Italy's hands. They'll be happy to sit back and draw the Swedes in like they did against Belgium. 

With Italy available at evens or even odds against in places, this is outstanding value and should be snapped up by the bucket loads. If you're feeling brave you can also go for Italy to win to nil, available at a shade under 2/1

Onwards to match two and it's back to my dark horses Croatia. They were much the best for large parts of the game against Turkey, but failed to express that numerically, winning only 1-0 thanks to Luka Modric's great goal. The Czechs on the other hand nearly got a hard-fought point against Spain, only succumbing to a late goal by Pique. Question is, will the Czechs adopt a more forward approach. Because if they do, that may well be their downfall. To me, Croatia are very strong team and if you give them space to play, they will murder you. At the same time, if they are to have any hopes of progressing, the Czechs will need a point from this match and then beat Turkey. So it could well be another tight game. I do think Croatia will take the spoils though, they have more quality and that will see them through in the end. They are a shade over evens to win, while the HT/FT Draw/Croatia can be had at 4/1. 0-0 at Half-time, a winner in the Czech's previous game is 11/8

Finally, Spain take on Turkey and although the Spanish were dominant for large parts of the match against the Czech Republic, they failed to score until very late. That could well be a problem again. For all their quality in midfield, Spain are lacking a real goalgetter up front and they'll need to improve on that front. But I expect them to have too much for Turkey. One angle that I fancy is Spain to score a Penalty @ 13/2 with PaddyPower. With all their tricky players making runs into the box, it could be a terrific way for them to belay their goalscoring worries. 13/2 seems an excellent price on that front. The other angle I like is, Ramos (17/2) or Pique (11/1) as an anytime goalscorer. Both have a proven record of nicking goals for both club and country and you wouldn't put it past them to net from a set piece here.

Bets:
Italy to beat Sweden @ 21/20
Croatia to beat Czech Republic @ 11/10
Draw/Croatia HT/FT @ 4/1
Spain to score a penalty @ 13/2
Ramos Anytime goalscorer @ 17/2