Morning all,
Day four is upon us and it should be a good day's football with three games that could go either way. We start at two o'clock with Spain taking on the Czech Republic and while the holders are fancied for this match, I'm not convinced by them. Don't get me wrong, they still have a very good defence and midfield, but at the same time, some of the golden generation have gone. Puyol and Xavi are no longer there and they were both instrumental in Spain's golden age. That said, the Spanish only conceded three in qualifying (although they did lose to Slovakia). At the same time, they lost their final preparation game against lowly Georgia and their top scorer in qualifying, Paco Alcacer, is missing. That means they'll have to rely on Morata and Arduriz for the goals and they are not world class.
That would concern me against a Czech side that showed an penchant for grinding out results in qualifying and finished top of their group which included Netherlands and Turkey. The underdogs have a wealth of experience and I think they could set out to frustrate the Spanish here. A slow start would help the Czechs and we've seen plenty of them in this tournament already. The longer the game goes on as a draw, the more frustrated the Spanish will be come and that may open up chances for the Czechs.
I fancy a 0-0 halftime score at odds of 15/8, while I think a double chance on Czech Republic or Draw at odds of just shy of 2/1 (9/5 and 19/10 are both prominent quotes) is not a bad bet either.
Next Ireland take on Sweden and this will be a crunch tie for both teams. Win this and you're in with a chance of qualifying. Sweden of course have the indomitable Zlatan and you'd fancy him to score against anyone. Both teams of course came through the playoffs to make it here. Ireland scored 19 goals in qualifying, but take away the ones against Gibraltar and you're left with only eight, conceding seven. That is my concern for Ireland, where are the goals going to come from? Robbie Keane top scored for them, but he's not likely to start, so Shane Long will have his work cut out. Sweden meanwhile, never scored more than three in a game and that included games against minnows Liechtenstein and Moldova. A draw will be no good to either team, so I expect the first goal to be crucial. Zlatan to score first is 4/1 and he can be had at 8/5 to score at any time. I think he'll be the difference between the sides and Sweden might nick it at 29/20
Finally the big clash of the day sees Belgium take on Italy. Everyone has written of the Azzuri, but that does not sit right with me. One of the best defences in world football and that includes the evergreen Gigi Buffon in goal, Italy did not lose a game in qualifying. Sure, there were disappointing results and they didn't set the World alight, but above all Italy are a tournament time. Like Germany, it is foolish to write them off before the tournament has started. Italy's problems will be up front, but if the likes of Insigne and El Shaarawy reach their best form, they could be an outsides to take note of. Belgium meanwhile have transformed from dark horses to contenders for the first time in a team that holds a vast array of talent. They have a strong pairing at centre back in Alderweireld and Vertonghen, although the flanks look weaker with those places like occupied by centre backs as well. Eden Hazard will be a key man, if he returns to his best form, but he's not shone for Chelsea this season and if he shows that sort of level, he may be more a hindrance. Romelu Lukaku will be the man they look for for goals and he is everything you could want from a striker and still only 23. That said though, neither side needs to win this game (as I expect them to beat the other teams comfortably) and a draw at 2/1 seems good prices
Bets:
Spain v Czech Republic
0-0 at Halftime @ 15/8
Czech Republic or Draw double chance @ 19/10
Ireland v Sweden
Zlatan to score first @ 4/1
Sweden to win @ 29/20
Belgium v Italy
Draw @ 2/1
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