Cheltenham Tuesday - Champion Day

Cheltenham Tuesday - Champion Day
By @redgameracer

Note: I've left the handicaps out and will address them in a separate blog.

Come one thirty on the Tuesday, the talking will stop. The tapes will go up and once of the most iconic sounds of sport will sound, the Cheltenham Roar. It's one of those instantly recognizable sounds, like the Lord's buzz in cricket and one of the sounds that is associated with the pinnacle of its sport. In this case, National Hunt racing. Twenty-eight races over four, hopefully brilliant, days will have every fan of jumps racing at the edge of their seat. It all kicks off on the Tuesday with Champion Day, featuring four Grade ones, including the Champion Hurdle.

It all starts with the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. The opener has been won by the same connections for the past three years and once again, the favourite is Rich Ricci owned and Willie Mullins trained. Min has done nothing wrong so far in his short career, winning the Grade Two Moscow Flyer on his latest appearance. He's raced keenly, but has impressed with his slick jumping and obvious engine. The way he powered away on the bridle from two rivals in his latest run was remarkable. A number of the horses he has beaten previously have won subsequently, so the form has been franked and on current form, he is the one to beat. Altior is the current second favourite, but I've not been impressed by him. He only just beat Maputo, who finished lame, but at least has C&D form. He will make a great chaser in time,  but I don't think he's going to challenge Min in this race. More interesting is his unexposed stable mate, Buveur D'Air. He's two from two and the form of his first race especially has worked out well with the first five behind having gone on to clock up a win. Nicky Henderson has said he will appreciate softer ground and he is not sure to get that, with the weather forecast to be dry. Yorkhill is still listed in the market as fourth favourite and if he were to turn up, he would perhaps be the biggest threat to Min. He won the Tolworth Hurdle in heavy conditions and impressively so. Ruby Walsh was still holding on to hands full of reigns coming to two out and although he was unable to quicken in the conditions he simply cruised home. He's currently more fancied for the Neptune though and may well run in that race. Tombstone for Gordon Elliot is a tough horse and will probably run a big race, but he's not won on his last two appearances in Grade One company and would have to step up. The one that would interest me at a bigger price is Supasundae. He kept on strongly last time out to win at Leopardstown and at 16/1 he could be an interesting each way proposition. Equally, Vigil has some good form in the book for Dermot Weld and it's not often that he sends a runner over hurdles, so this one must be highly thought of. At a best price of 40/1 (Betway) he could also be of interest.

From hurdles, we switch to fences for the two miles novices' chase known as the Arkle Trophy. Named after the famous 'Freak', the Arkle is another Grade One race, although this year it does not look very competitive. The general feeling around is that as long as the hot favourite Douvan stays upright, he will win this. Unbeaten in all seven of his starts, including last year's Supreme and all three of his starts over fences this season, Douvan is being hailed as one of the best in Willie Mullins stable. Considering he also has the likes of Vautour and Faugheen, that's high praise indeed. It's no surprise that he's a very short price for the race and I agree that if he stands up he should win. There's a few candidates to follow him home, but a lot of the horses set to line up also have entries in other races and there remains the question of who is actually going to run here. Sizing John is almost certain to line up here and at 16/1 (best price) he's an attractive proposition to follow the favourite home (Again!). He will probably have to fight it out for that honour with Vaniteux for Nicky Henderson, a trainer with a great record in the race. He is another that has taken well to chasing, his only defeat coming by a neck to Ar Mad, who is sadly out of the race with injury. Of the others, it's hard to see who would turn up and I can't really see past Douvan anyway.


As I said, we'll skip the handicaps, so we'll go straight to the Champion Hurdle next. With the sad omission of Faugheen and Arctic Fire, this race as suddenly become a lot more open. Annie Power has been supplemented for the race following Faugheen's departure and is the current favourite. It is undoubtedly her best chance to win a Champion Hurdle, but I'm not entirely sure why she is favourite. Perhaps it is the hype about her being supplemented that has done it. Yes, she's a wonderful race mare and she certainly deserves her place in the race, but should she be shorter than Nichols Canyon, who has six grade one victories to his name and is the only horse to have beaten Faugheen? Not for my money. Yes Nichols Canyon bombed out in his last race, taking on Faugheen for the lead and getting beat, but that was after a tough race in terrible conditions and I'm willing to forgive him that run. At a price of 11/2, he's far more attractively priced than Annie Power at 9/4. Annie deserves to win a festival race and she has a chance to do it in this race. I just can't back her at the odds given. Of the others, I can't have My Tent Or Yours after two years off, while Peace and Co has been disappointing this season. Identity Thief impressed when winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and then pushed Nichols Canyon all the way at Leopardstown in those poor conditions. He's certainly not without a chance. Henry de Bromhead could well be set for a big opening day and Identity Thief could be another in with a chance. The New One has had his chance and despite decent form this season, I couldn't take it on trust that he can perform on the big stage again. One at a big price could well be Sempre Medici. He impressively beat Identity Thief in a Grade Two at Fairyhouse last year and has on his last two starts, both in Graded races. It's worth noting that Mullins had a 1-2-3 last year and a big run from the outsider is not out of the question for a repeat of that. At 25/1, he could be worth a shilling each way.

Over to the final Grade One of the day, the Mares Hurdle. It's another Mulllins favourite in Vroum Vroum Mag. She's yet to be defeated for Mullins, although only two of her eight starts have been over hurdles. She'd have a live chance in the Ryanair, but she's not going there, so that discussion is moot. Instead, she hopes to succeed where Annie Power so famously failed last year. She will undoubtedly be a very short price, but it is still impossible to oppose her. She's put a number of these in their places last time out in a Grade Two at Ascot and the formlines stack up in her favour. Should she fail to complete then Polly Peachum could well take the spoils for Nicky Henderson. She was just beaten last year in this and was denied on her reappearance, but then beat The Govaness in a listed race at Sandown. However, I fancy the latter to reverse the form with Richard Johnson on board. At 16/1 she's a big price and I'll  be interested to see how see goes. Aurore D'Estruval was disappointing at Ascot behind Vroum Vroum Mag, but Bitofapuzzle could be in contention if she leaves her poor chase form behind, back over hurdles. Lily Waugh has been running well in handicaps and she's a tough little mare who has C&D form and with David Noonan on board, she could run a decent race.

The final race we'll look at for day one is the four mile National Hunt Chase. It's another murky race, with some of the principals set to run elsewhere, such as Roi Des Francs. According to the latest reports, he's RSA bound, so we'll ignore him in the market for now. Similarly, I believe Pont Alexandre is unlikely to run here and heads for the JLT instead. The one I like in this race Southfield Royale. He's notched up two chase wins over three miles, before coming second to the impressive Tea for Two on Boxing Day. Leading amateur Nina Carberry has been booked to ride and this one has got a leading chance. Favourite in the market at this point is Minella Rocco for Jonjo O'Neill. The stable form isn't great, but he stayed on impressively behind Vyta Du Roc last time out at Ascot and could well have won that race. It screamed a Jonjo O'Neill & JP McManus handicap plot all season, but it looks like he's going to turn up here instead. Leading amateur Derek O'Conner jumped ship from Native River to take the ride and that could well enhance his chances. Colin Tizzard won't have been too happy, but his charge could still have a say in matters come the finish. Jamie Codd rides Noble Endeavour for Gordon Elliot and he is another prominent in the market. I'm going to stick with Southfield Royale though, hopefully Nina can get a good ride out of him.

Supreme: Min to win @ 2/1, Supasundae EW @ 16/1
Arkle: Douvan to win no bet, Sizing John EW @ 16/1 (or Douvan to beat Sizing John straight forecast)
Champion Hurdle: Nichols Canyon EW @ 11/2
Mares Hurdle: Vroum Vroum Mag to win @ 11/10 , The Govaness EW @ 16/1
National Hunt Chase: Southfield Royale EW @ 10/1