Hi all,
Apologies for my absence in the last few days, but unfortunately, this is just a hobby and sometimes real-life things have to take priority over that. Hope you all have been doing well at the Festival in my absence. I've been doing pretty well so far with profit for the first three days. Had a great day down at the track on Tuesday, but it was a long slog getting there and back. In any case, let's get stuck into Friday's action.
We start with the Triumph Hurdle, which looks to be a cracker of a race and I'm really struggling for a pick in this. Zubayr is the market leader at 5/1 and he was impressive in the Adonis. An expensive purchase from France despite not showing much, he's obviously highly regarded from a strong stable. Nicholls also runs Clan Des Obeaux, Connetable, Tommy Silver and Frodon and has a might strong hand with that. All four could well improve to take this. Of the five Nicholls runners though, I like Zubayr the best after his Adonis run. Willie Mullins has three in the race, including both fillies in Apple's Jade and Let's Dance. The former is unbeaten, but might prefer softer ground, while the second has not managed to get her head in front yet. On jockey bookings though, Footpad seems his best chance with the in-form Ruby Walsh on board. He was impressive last time out beating better fancied rivals and is three from four for Mullins. Ivanovich Gorbatov disappointed last time out, but had impressed previously and even shortened in price after initial drift on that poor performance. You'd have to take a lot on trust with this one as it's Joseph O'Brien's first big runner at a festival. Alan King also has a strong hand with Who Dares Wins, Gibralfaro and Sceau Royal. The former finished behind a few of these having to concede weight all round, while the second disappointed in the Adonis despite being favourite. The latter is the only one with winning course and distance from and could well be the one to beat. If I had to put my neck on the line, then at the prices I'd side with Sceau Royal, but to be truthful, this is probably one that I'll watch rather than get heavily involved in.
From one difficult puzzle to the next, as we go to the County Hurdle. The one that stands out for me at the weights is Wait For Me. He could be incredibly well handicapped, but that fully relies on him being able to jump. Again you could make an argument for half the field here, but I'm going to pick out two more that I like. First of all, Modus. I'm probably crazy, but for me this reeks of a JP Handicap plot. You don't pay all that money for it unless you have something in particular in mind. He will be much better suited by the good ground as demonstrated in his bumpers last year and it wouldn't surprise me if he ran a big race. Starchitect was in contention for a long way in the BetFair Hurdle and could well go close again, as long as the bounce factor doesn't stop him. Perhaps a bit shorter than I'd have liked though. All three of those should have a live chance and are a nice EW price.
If that wasn't hard enough, there's the Albert Bartlett next and only the seven Willie Mullins runners line up here. Of those, I like Long Dog and Gangster, while I wouldn't rule out a big run from either Bleu et Rouge or Bachasson. The latter will especially be suited by the better ground. Ruby rides Long Dog and the form he's in, he'd be hard to ignore. Barters Hill is the obvious favourite, still unbeaten over hurdles, but he did not impress me at all last time out at Doncaster and I fancy Shantou Village to do him for speed on the home straight.
The main event next and after yesterday, I can only put up one horse for this. Cue Card. Vautour was mightily impressive yesterday in winning the Ryanair Chase, over his preferred distance and he only got beaten by a nose by Colin Tizzard's star in the King George. I can't have Don Cossack at Cheltenham, he's shown nothing much here so far and I don't subscribe to the theory that he would've won the King George. I love Djakadam, but I couldn't back him coming here off a fall. I'm sure he'll give a good account of himself none the less. Don Poli or Don Slowly as he is also known would probably prefer softer ground and although he has course form, I don't think he has the speed to keep up with these. That leaves us with the rejuvenated Cue Card. This has been a season for comebacks and after Sprinter Sacre on Wednesday, this would be the cherry on the cake for a fantastic festival. (For the record, if Vautour ran in this, I'd be all over him. He'd win. Not a doubt in my mind).
It's all downhill from here. I'm not particularly interested in the Foxhunters, but I hope Pendo does well. It'll peak interest in racing and that's what we all want. It Came To Pass would be my pick. In the Martin Pipe, Childrens List and Squouateur both have decent chances and finally in the Grand Annual, Chris Pea Green could run a big race if he settles, but I think this would be between Velvet Maker and Next Sensation.
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