Stan James Champion Hurdle Preview
Red looks forward to the first of the Championship races of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival, the Champion Hurdle and gives his thoughts on the likely runners and their chances.
Amid the coming cold and snow of a January cold weather front, we at least have the prospect of Cheltenham to keep us warm. While some ante-post markets may be pretty clear already, there's plenty that are still muddles, none more so than the Champion Hurdle. And as always, it comes down to just one man, Willie Mullins.
The Closutton trainer has the first two in the market in Faugheen (11/4 Coral) and Annie Power (9/2 Betfair), but concerns over their well-being is making this a hard race to preview. Let's stick to what we know first. Neither of them has been seen on the racecourse this season and we know they won't face up against each other. That's pretty evident from all the talk from the connections. Also, if either of them turns up anywhere near fully fit, they'll win. That may not be a given, but you'd be hard pressed to see them beat if they got there sound. But that leaves us with a whole lot of unknowns.
First of all, which one of the two is the more likely to make it there? For me, it's Faugheen. The 2015 winner hasn't 'sparkled in his work at home' according to Paddy Mullins, but I feel he is the more likely of the two to get there. For two reasons. The first one is simple. Annie Power is a mare. She has doubtless potential as a broodmare once she retires and there has already been talk of that this season. The Ricci's won't want to risk her in this race unless she is 100% fully fighting fit and that probably means getting a run into her before the festival. And that seems more and more unlikely. Secondly, there's an much easier alternative race for her if they are desperate to run her at Cheltenham. The Mares race is still a Grade One and Mullins has a fabulous record in it, even with runners who go there first time out (Quevega says hi), and she would be miles ahead of anything else in the race. But is Faugheen at 11/4 a good price? That all depends on if you think he'll make it there. For me, he is the most likely to and therefore the most likely winner and you won't get anywhere near 11/4 if he is confirmed to go. If you're willing to take the chance, then 11/4 is a superb price.
But what if neither of them turns up. It is a real possibility and that throws the race wide open. No doubt Mullins will have something in reserve, the likes of Vroum Vroum Mag (25/1 PaddyPower) and Nichols Canyon (33/1 various) are obvious super subs and will be a lot shorter if the top two come out. But if they don't, then it's a waste of money, because neither will be likely to run if Faugheen or Annie makes it. Arctic Fire (33/1 various) may or may not make the race as he is another suffering with injury woes.
So let's look away from Mullins and see what catches the eye. The New One (25/1 various) showed much improvement under Dickie Johnson in winning the International Hurdle, but has never sparkled in the showpiece event and was beaten by Yanworth (5/1 various) at Kempton. Both would be suited by the more testing track at Cheltenham, but it's hard to see the former reverse the form. He is however an interesting proposition on the Exchanges where he is 66/1. With Nigel Twiston-Davies already confirming he'll target the race again, he should be shorter on the day and you'll be able to lay off your stake for a profit, especially if the top two come out.
Brain Power (14/1 888Sport) has been well punted since winning two handicaps and this race could well be of handicap standard by the time. But he was well beaten in the Greatwood and that would concern me if he was to line up here. Petit Mouchoir (8/1 various) is another who's been well backed after his victory at Leopardstown, beating Nichols Canyon by seven lengths and he would certainly enter calculations on the back off that. He didn't enjoy things last year in the Supreme though and festival form is one of those things I really like at Cheltenham.
So what am I going for then? I'll take Faugheen at 11/4 because I'm convinced he'll get there. I haven't got anything solid to back it up, but gut instinct. But I'll give you two who could hit the frame at a price. Haven't mentioned either of them yet, so hold on for the surprise.
First of all, My Tent or Yours (50/1 various). Ok, ok you can stop the laughter out the back, but 50s is waaay to big. The likely better ground at the festival will suit him to a tee and he's got decent festival form with three seconds over track and trip. Sure, he might be past it and that's why he's the price he is, but I genuinely believe there's something more to come from him. Perhaps relinquishing some of his headgear (as has been suggested by some) could allow him to run a bit more freely and eke out the inches needed to improve past some of his lesser priced rivals.
Secondly, a festival winner who hasn't seen much hurdles of late, but could run a big race if his trainer decides to go here with him. Wicklow Brave (33/1) is a classy horse, having won an Irish St Leger, but also a County Hurdle and it wouldn't be the greatest leap of imagination to see him line up here if the top two came out. He's a smooth traveller with C&D and festival form and he could be an surprise outsider.
Suggested:
Faugheen to win, 11/4 @ Coral
My Tent Or Yours 50/1 E/W various
Wicklow Brave 33/1 E/W various
As always, if you have feedback, suggestions or you just want to laugh at my ridiculous choices, @redgameracer on Twitter is the place.
Red
Tuesday, 10 January 2017
Friday, 16 December 2016
Reds Racing Picks 16/12/2016
Morning all,
Only four winners over yesterday's jumps, to go with a couple of big priced places, but the all weather saved the day when the 3B, El Viento, drifted to 25's and won by three parts of a lengths. The NAP and NB both hit the frame, but couldn't quite get there.
Just jumps selections today, nothing on the all weather really takes my fancy, but it should be a good card at Ascot and a reasonable one at Uttoxeter.
The NAP comes from the bumper at Ascot where Claimtakinforgan is the pick. He won in the mud at Haydock when beating a decent sort of Fergal O'Brien, with the pair well clear of the field. He comes from a point to point run that has produced the likes of Lough Derg Spirit (who you'll hear about later) and some other decent performers in Crievehill and Kildisart. Certainly a form-line to keep in mind and this Nicky Henderson horse should be able to do the business (although I've also heard good things about Fergal's one in this race).
The NB then, is Lough Derg Spirit, who runs in the Supreme trial at 1.55. He was third to Claimtakinforgan in that P2P and beat a decent sort the next time in a similar race, before delivering an impressive round of jumping to claim the spoils at Kempton, beating Coup de Pinceau of Paul Nicholls. Henderson has the top two in the market here, with his main rival being Thomas Campbell, but I think Lough Derg Spirit is the one to look out for and keep an eye out for March.
16-12
Uttoxeter
12.05 Cobolobo 9/1
12.35 Bredon Hill Lad 4/1
1.10 Annie Alainn 8/13
1.45 State The Obvious 6/1
2.20 Albert D'Olivate 9/4
2.55 Alf N Dor 9/2
3.30 De Dollar Man 15/8
Ascot
12.45 Lagavara 25/1
1.20 I'dliketheoption 4/1
1.55 Lough Derg Spirit 2/1 NB
2.30 Politologue 5/6
3.05 Morning Herald 11/1
3.40 Claimtakinforgan 11/4 NAP
Only four winners over yesterday's jumps, to go with a couple of big priced places, but the all weather saved the day when the 3B, El Viento, drifted to 25's and won by three parts of a lengths. The NAP and NB both hit the frame, but couldn't quite get there.
Just jumps selections today, nothing on the all weather really takes my fancy, but it should be a good card at Ascot and a reasonable one at Uttoxeter.
The NAP comes from the bumper at Ascot where Claimtakinforgan is the pick. He won in the mud at Haydock when beating a decent sort of Fergal O'Brien, with the pair well clear of the field. He comes from a point to point run that has produced the likes of Lough Derg Spirit (who you'll hear about later) and some other decent performers in Crievehill and Kildisart. Certainly a form-line to keep in mind and this Nicky Henderson horse should be able to do the business (although I've also heard good things about Fergal's one in this race).
The NB then, is Lough Derg Spirit, who runs in the Supreme trial at 1.55. He was third to Claimtakinforgan in that P2P and beat a decent sort the next time in a similar race, before delivering an impressive round of jumping to claim the spoils at Kempton, beating Coup de Pinceau of Paul Nicholls. Henderson has the top two in the market here, with his main rival being Thomas Campbell, but I think Lough Derg Spirit is the one to look out for and keep an eye out for March.
16-12
Uttoxeter
12.05 Cobolobo 9/1
12.35 Bredon Hill Lad 4/1
1.10 Annie Alainn 8/13
1.45 State The Obvious 6/1
2.20 Albert D'Olivate 9/4
2.55 Alf N Dor 9/2
3.30 De Dollar Man 15/8
Ascot
12.45 Lagavara 25/1
1.20 I'dliketheoption 4/1
1.55 Lough Derg Spirit 2/1 NB
2.30 Politologue 5/6
3.05 Morning Herald 11/1
3.40 Claimtakinforgan 11/4 NAP
Thursday, 15 December 2016
Reds Racing Picks 15/12/2016
Morning all,
It's been a while, but a return for the blog today with selections for every race on all three jumps cards and I've even managed to put in a couple from the sand at Chelmsford that look overpriced.
The NAP is Clondaw Bisto from the 2.10 at Towcester. He's been running pretty well with a win and two runner ups from his last three outings. Steps up in trip today, but he's looked a staying type and the uphill finish should play into his hands.
The Next Best comes from the opener at Exeter. Which One Is Which went into my tracker last year after a good performance behind Copper Kay at Cheltenham, but disappointed on hurdles debut, having plenty of misfortune in running. She wasn't given a hard ride by Geraghty though and an upturn in fortune is to be expected.
Finally, we go to the sand at Chelmsford, where El Viento looks a big price at 16/1. He's certainly not in flying form and perhaps more familiar as a turf horse than one for the all weather, but he has won at Lingfield off 11 lbs higher and if Paddy Mathers can get a tune out of him, he could go close. There's plenty of pace for him to aim at, so that isn't the issue. The draw is not ideal, so that does put me off a little, but 16/1 is too big.
EDIT: If you have any questions about why I've picked any of these, feel free to hit me up on @redgameracer
Towcester
12.10 Scorpio Queen 11/4
12.40 Crown Hill 8/1
1.10 Samson 5/1
1.40 Midnight Request 20/1
2.10 Clondaw Bisto 4/1 NAP
2.45 Some Finish 11/2
3.20 All Currencies 2/1
Tramore
12.25 Camelia de Cotte 2/7
12.55 Roumanian 7/4
1.25 Torrent Des Mottes 10/11
1.55 The Mooch 13/2
2.25 Vicky's Charm 3/1
3.00 Line View 9/1
3.35 Westland Row 15/8
Exeter
12.30 Which One Is Which 4/1 NB
1.00 Paddys Runner 22/1
1.30 Tagrita 10/11
2.00 Le Prezien 11/10
2.35 Allow Dallow 12/1
3.10 Give Me A Copper 5/6
3.45 Breaking The Bank 25/1
Chelmsford City
6.25 El Viento 16/1 3B
7.30 Jazri 16/1
It's been a while, but a return for the blog today with selections for every race on all three jumps cards and I've even managed to put in a couple from the sand at Chelmsford that look overpriced.
The NAP is Clondaw Bisto from the 2.10 at Towcester. He's been running pretty well with a win and two runner ups from his last three outings. Steps up in trip today, but he's looked a staying type and the uphill finish should play into his hands.
The Next Best comes from the opener at Exeter. Which One Is Which went into my tracker last year after a good performance behind Copper Kay at Cheltenham, but disappointed on hurdles debut, having plenty of misfortune in running. She wasn't given a hard ride by Geraghty though and an upturn in fortune is to be expected.
Finally, we go to the sand at Chelmsford, where El Viento looks a big price at 16/1. He's certainly not in flying form and perhaps more familiar as a turf horse than one for the all weather, but he has won at Lingfield off 11 lbs higher and if Paddy Mathers can get a tune out of him, he could go close. There's plenty of pace for him to aim at, so that isn't the issue. The draw is not ideal, so that does put me off a little, but 16/1 is too big.
EDIT: If you have any questions about why I've picked any of these, feel free to hit me up on @redgameracer
Towcester
12.10 Scorpio Queen 11/4
12.40 Crown Hill 8/1
1.10 Samson 5/1
1.40 Midnight Request 20/1
2.10 Clondaw Bisto 4/1 NAP
2.45 Some Finish 11/2
3.20 All Currencies 2/1
Tramore
12.25 Camelia de Cotte 2/7
12.55 Roumanian 7/4
1.25 Torrent Des Mottes 10/11
1.55 The Mooch 13/2
2.25 Vicky's Charm 3/1
3.00 Line View 9/1
3.35 Westland Row 15/8
Exeter
12.30 Which One Is Which 4/1 NB
1.00 Paddys Runner 22/1
1.30 Tagrita 10/11
2.00 Le Prezien 11/10
2.35 Allow Dallow 12/1
3.10 Give Me A Copper 5/6
3.45 Breaking The Bank 25/1
Chelmsford City
6.25 El Viento 16/1 3B
7.30 Jazri 16/1
Friday, 18 November 2016
2016 Betfair Chase
The Betfair Chase
By Red
Red looks forward towards the big race of the weekend, the Betfair Chase at Haydock. (Soft, heavy in places at time of writing).
This time last year I had a rant about the field size in the Betfair and it's no different this year. Only seven declared, with a fair chance that Menorah and Irish Cavalier will get pulled because of the worsening ground. It's soft, heavy in places the moment and it may well get to full blown heavy by tomorrow. You can't say they haven't had fair warning about the million pound bonus this year, but again there is no Irish challengers. Disappointing, but what can you do.
Anyway, no point in lamenting about it, we'll make do with the seven we have. The market seems to suggest that it's almost a match between Cue Card (7/4) and Coneygree (2/1). Both of them have questions to be answered. Coneygree has been off for over a year and obviously has his issues. He's a fragile horse and you wonder if a competitive race in heavy ground is what he wants on his return. I'm sure the Bradstocks will have him primed for it, but the price puts me off. Cue Card is an equally prohibitive price at 7/4 and has questions to answer after his disappointing reappearance in the Charlie Hall Chase, beaten three and a bit lengths by Irish Cavalier. But there's more to this field than just those two. Silviniaco Conti (7/1) is a two time winner of this race and showed up well for a long time last year before Cue Card breezed clear. He was beaten eleven lengths by Valseur Lido on return and I don't think he's as good as he was. Nearly ten lbs below his best rating now and I think that's an accurate reflection of him. He's good, but not great anymore and I think he'll find one or two too strong. Seeyouatmidnight (7/1) will enjoy a good slog if the ground turns heavy, but he still has 20 lbs to find with the front two and I don't think the ground will account for that much. Irish Cavalier (11/1) beat Cue Card in the Charlie Hall, but won't enjoy soft or heavy conditions and might not even run. The same goes for Menorah (25/1) and French raider Vezelay (66/1) is the big unknown, but his form doesn't read to impressively.
So, who am I plumping for? Cue Card. I think that Charlie Hall was not an accurate reflection of his ability. He hit the front too early when Dynaste made a bad mistake and floundered. Furthermore, his record on proper good ground is patchy at best. Hasn't won on it since 2011, beaten 26 lengths by Don Cossack in the 2015 Melling and fell in the 2016 Gold Cup. His record on soft is 6 wins from 8 runs (including soft, heavy in places in this race last year). Yes, the price is short, but I couldn't be backing any of the others at the prices. I think he'll be fully primed for this and with Coneygree and Silviniaco giving him a nice tow into the race, he'll be bang there at the last, striding clear like a good thing.
By Red
Red looks forward towards the big race of the weekend, the Betfair Chase at Haydock. (Soft, heavy in places at time of writing).
This time last year I had a rant about the field size in the Betfair and it's no different this year. Only seven declared, with a fair chance that Menorah and Irish Cavalier will get pulled because of the worsening ground. It's soft, heavy in places the moment and it may well get to full blown heavy by tomorrow. You can't say they haven't had fair warning about the million pound bonus this year, but again there is no Irish challengers. Disappointing, but what can you do.
Anyway, no point in lamenting about it, we'll make do with the seven we have. The market seems to suggest that it's almost a match between Cue Card (7/4) and Coneygree (2/1). Both of them have questions to be answered. Coneygree has been off for over a year and obviously has his issues. He's a fragile horse and you wonder if a competitive race in heavy ground is what he wants on his return. I'm sure the Bradstocks will have him primed for it, but the price puts me off. Cue Card is an equally prohibitive price at 7/4 and has questions to answer after his disappointing reappearance in the Charlie Hall Chase, beaten three and a bit lengths by Irish Cavalier. But there's more to this field than just those two. Silviniaco Conti (7/1) is a two time winner of this race and showed up well for a long time last year before Cue Card breezed clear. He was beaten eleven lengths by Valseur Lido on return and I don't think he's as good as he was. Nearly ten lbs below his best rating now and I think that's an accurate reflection of him. He's good, but not great anymore and I think he'll find one or two too strong. Seeyouatmidnight (7/1) will enjoy a good slog if the ground turns heavy, but he still has 20 lbs to find with the front two and I don't think the ground will account for that much. Irish Cavalier (11/1) beat Cue Card in the Charlie Hall, but won't enjoy soft or heavy conditions and might not even run. The same goes for Menorah (25/1) and French raider Vezelay (66/1) is the big unknown, but his form doesn't read to impressively.
So, who am I plumping for? Cue Card. I think that Charlie Hall was not an accurate reflection of his ability. He hit the front too early when Dynaste made a bad mistake and floundered. Furthermore, his record on proper good ground is patchy at best. Hasn't won on it since 2011, beaten 26 lengths by Don Cossack in the 2015 Melling and fell in the 2016 Gold Cup. His record on soft is 6 wins from 8 runs (including soft, heavy in places in this race last year). Yes, the price is short, but I couldn't be backing any of the others at the prices. I think he'll be fully primed for this and with Coneygree and Silviniaco giving him a nice tow into the race, he'll be bang there at the last, striding clear like a good thing.
Monday, 7 November 2016
"A Gazelle In Equine Form"
"A Gazelle In Equine Form"
From when he first announced himself
in the twenty-fourteen Supreme
the thrills were everywhere
disappointments few, and far between
Sure, he fell at Aintree
And at P'town he was in the wrong race
but everything else he did
he did with style and grace
Giant stride, ears pricked
his beautiful great head held high
Ruby standing in his irons
whip pointing to the sky
He was beautifully described
a gazelle in equine form
running up that hill
taking the festival by storm
Farewell champion
you were the one for me
that drew me into this great sport
May you forever run free
From when he first announced himself
in the twenty-fourteen Supreme
the thrills were everywhere
disappointments few, and far between
Sure, he fell at Aintree
And at P'town he was in the wrong race
but everything else he did
he did with style and grace
Giant stride, ears pricked
his beautiful great head held high
Ruby standing in his irons
whip pointing to the sky
He was beautifully described
a gazelle in equine form
running up that hill
taking the festival by storm
Farewell champion
you were the one for me
that drew me into this great sport
May you forever run free
Friday, 28 October 2016
The Weekend Preview
The Weekend Preview
By Red
Red looks forward towards the weekend racing coming from Ascot and Wetherby (and maybe even Carlisle on Sunday ).
I've already had a look at the big one on Saturday, the Charlie Hall (which you can find here), but there's plenty of other action, with a mares listed hurdle and the West Yorkshire hurdle at Wetherby on Saturday, the Sodexo Gold Cup and a pair of listed races at Ascot all on Saturday and a potentially exciting race up at Carlisle on Sunday.
Starting with the Mares Listed race at 2.10 on Saturday, Miss Crick seems the obvious place to start with four wins in her last five. Alan King's mare by Midnight Legend went up 13 lbs over the summer, but showed no signs of stopping when she breezed up by 8 lengths at Worcester latest. Up another 12 lbs for that could be a struggle, but she's in hot form. The other top rated horse in the race is Stephanie Frances, who has been showing great form over fences, but has some decent hurdles form as well. The Skelton yard are in good from and she wasn't disgraced in the Mares hurdle at Cheltenham, finishing 8th, 10 lengths behind Vroum Vroum Mag, when a 40/1 shot. Midnight Jazz and Card Game might have a say in proceedings, but my preference would be to go with the Skelton horse.
The West Yorkshire hurdle at 2.45 had the potential to be an absolute belter if they all turned up. But with the likes of Saphir Du Rheu and Unowwhatimeanharry going elsewhere, the race seems to revolve around Ballyoptic. He has already been touted as a potential World Hurdle winner and he showed plenty of speed to go with the stamina to claim a 2m3 race at Chepstow at the start of the month. He looks a stout and game type and this will be a interesting race for his future. The Romford Pele can do a bit of everything and won well last time out. Rebecca Curtis had some well documented issues last year, but she looks to have her stable in fine fettle early doors and she has some well handicapped horses as a result. Certainly wouldn't rule this one out on that basis. I would've ruled out Native River and Oscar Rock in a stronger race, but both are stout stayers and although perhaps better over fences, they shouldn't be ruled out completely. Especially the former is a really good horse and has won some good hurdles races in the past. I don't see Lil Rockerfeller staying three miles even in this sort of race. Silsol and If In Doubt are both decent horses and could get involved, but for me this one should be all about Ballyoptic.
Elsewhere on this card, Double W's could get shocked by Holly Brush Henry in the novice handicap, while Royal Vacation should go well in the Novice chase.
Over to Ascot then. The listed chase looks weak to me and will perhaps be more of a watching brief, but the handicap hurdle could be an excellent race. Diego du Charmil, Cloonacool, Sternrubin & Ch'Tibello all come here with plenty of chances. The latter won the Scottish champion hurdle in good style, despite hitting the last, but has to shoulder top weight as a result and could find that tricky. C&D winner Sternrubin deadheated in the Ladbroke over C&D after winning the international, but is still high in the weights after those and was well beaten by Ch'tibello in the Scottish CH. Diego Du Charmil won the Fred Winter before being well beaten by Apple's Jade at Aintree. But he's already made a winning reappearance this season when winning at Chepstow at the start of the month, staying on well. Cloonacool was well fancied in a listed race at Market Rasen, but he fell when coming with a challenge. Should still be well weighted and could run a big race. But the one that I'm going for is Modus for Paul Nicholls. The in-form Harry Cobden claims three which brings him down to a nice weight. He disappointed in his last two starts, but there's a race in him and if he can rediscover his best bumper form then he could be very well handicapped. It's a big if and things don't always work out that way, but I've just got that nagging feeling is ready to make his mark. Time will tell.
That leaves the Sodexo Gold Cup, which for me is a two horse race, between the top two in the race. Tea for Two won the Feltham at Christmas, but disappointed subsequently in the Scilly Isles. But he was behind some good horses that day and if he's fit to go off a break he has his conditions to show up well. Top weight could be an issue, but Lizzie Kelly claims five and she's no slouch. Saphir du Rheu goes here instead of his other options and he could be well-in on his very best. The question is if he still has that, and I think he might struggle. He has to show that the Mildmay win was no fluke and he can mix it with the best. At the same time, he's not mixing it with the best here and a fair effort could see him home. Of the others, Voix D'Eau, Fourth Act and Killala Quay could go well, but it's hard to see them beating the top two for me.
By Red
Red looks forward towards the weekend racing coming from Ascot and Wetherby (and maybe even Carlisle on Sunday ).
I've already had a look at the big one on Saturday, the Charlie Hall (which you can find here), but there's plenty of other action, with a mares listed hurdle and the West Yorkshire hurdle at Wetherby on Saturday, the Sodexo Gold Cup and a pair of listed races at Ascot all on Saturday and a potentially exciting race up at Carlisle on Sunday.
Starting with the Mares Listed race at 2.10 on Saturday, Miss Crick seems the obvious place to start with four wins in her last five. Alan King's mare by Midnight Legend went up 13 lbs over the summer, but showed no signs of stopping when she breezed up by 8 lengths at Worcester latest. Up another 12 lbs for that could be a struggle, but she's in hot form. The other top rated horse in the race is Stephanie Frances, who has been showing great form over fences, but has some decent hurdles form as well. The Skelton yard are in good from and she wasn't disgraced in the Mares hurdle at Cheltenham, finishing 8th, 10 lengths behind Vroum Vroum Mag, when a 40/1 shot. Midnight Jazz and Card Game might have a say in proceedings, but my preference would be to go with the Skelton horse.
The West Yorkshire hurdle at 2.45 had the potential to be an absolute belter if they all turned up. But with the likes of Saphir Du Rheu and Unowwhatimeanharry going elsewhere, the race seems to revolve around Ballyoptic. He has already been touted as a potential World Hurdle winner and he showed plenty of speed to go with the stamina to claim a 2m3 race at Chepstow at the start of the month. He looks a stout and game type and this will be a interesting race for his future. The Romford Pele can do a bit of everything and won well last time out. Rebecca Curtis had some well documented issues last year, but she looks to have her stable in fine fettle early doors and she has some well handicapped horses as a result. Certainly wouldn't rule this one out on that basis. I would've ruled out Native River and Oscar Rock in a stronger race, but both are stout stayers and although perhaps better over fences, they shouldn't be ruled out completely. Especially the former is a really good horse and has won some good hurdles races in the past. I don't see Lil Rockerfeller staying three miles even in this sort of race. Silsol and If In Doubt are both decent horses and could get involved, but for me this one should be all about Ballyoptic.
Elsewhere on this card, Double W's could get shocked by Holly Brush Henry in the novice handicap, while Royal Vacation should go well in the Novice chase.
Over to Ascot then. The listed chase looks weak to me and will perhaps be more of a watching brief, but the handicap hurdle could be an excellent race. Diego du Charmil, Cloonacool, Sternrubin & Ch'Tibello all come here with plenty of chances. The latter won the Scottish champion hurdle in good style, despite hitting the last, but has to shoulder top weight as a result and could find that tricky. C&D winner Sternrubin deadheated in the Ladbroke over C&D after winning the international, but is still high in the weights after those and was well beaten by Ch'tibello in the Scottish CH. Diego Du Charmil won the Fred Winter before being well beaten by Apple's Jade at Aintree. But he's already made a winning reappearance this season when winning at Chepstow at the start of the month, staying on well. Cloonacool was well fancied in a listed race at Market Rasen, but he fell when coming with a challenge. Should still be well weighted and could run a big race. But the one that I'm going for is Modus for Paul Nicholls. The in-form Harry Cobden claims three which brings him down to a nice weight. He disappointed in his last two starts, but there's a race in him and if he can rediscover his best bumper form then he could be very well handicapped. It's a big if and things don't always work out that way, but I've just got that nagging feeling is ready to make his mark. Time will tell.
That leaves the Sodexo Gold Cup, which for me is a two horse race, between the top two in the race. Tea for Two won the Feltham at Christmas, but disappointed subsequently in the Scilly Isles. But he was behind some good horses that day and if he's fit to go off a break he has his conditions to show up well. Top weight could be an issue, but Lizzie Kelly claims five and she's no slouch. Saphir du Rheu goes here instead of his other options and he could be well-in on his very best. The question is if he still has that, and I think he might struggle. He has to show that the Mildmay win was no fluke and he can mix it with the best. At the same time, he's not mixing it with the best here and a fair effort could see him home. Of the others, Voix D'Eau, Fourth Act and Killala Quay could go well, but it's hard to see them beating the top two for me.
Wednesday, 26 October 2016
The Charlie Hall Chase
Charlie Hall Chase Preview
By Red
Red looks forward towards the big race at Wetherby
Aaah, proper racing. Get yer flat caps and tweed ready boys and girls, we're going jumping. The big one this weekend is the Charlie Hall Chase and I've had a look at the contestants.
And nowhere better to start than the Charlie Hall itself. It's the first real clash of the titans for the season ahead and we could be in for a real treat if there's sufficient rain for Coneygree to turn up. Entered only 'in case the ground gets soft' the 2015 Gold Cup winner does catch the eye at the top of the card. But there will remain questions about his fitness and apparently frailty and I'd be happy to swerve him, especially with the trainer's comments about his participation.
Indeed, you'd much rather look to last year's winner and superstar, Cue Card. Did perhaps everything right, except for being too exuberant at three out in the Gold Cup. I'm still convinced he would have ran Don Cossack very close and possibly even beaten him, but who is to say. He made fairly light work of the field last year and you'd expect him to take the same route to the Cheltenham show-piece this year. I don't think the years will be counting against him just yet and he should have too much for this field. If Coneygree turns up it's a different story, but even then, I'd rather be with Cue Card than Mark Bradstock's charge, considering the ground is more likely to be in the former's favour.
The only lurker in the field is last year's RSA winner, Blaklion. Again, he's probably one that will want a bit more rain to come, but he's certainly not to be underestimated. If he quite has the ability to compete with Cue Card remains to be seen, but he is a C&D winner (in the Towton last year) and he could be an exciting addition to the open company bracket.
The Last Samuri could run a decent race, having finished second in the Grand National, but he's another who perhaps wants more ran and a little further on that showing. He has been very good since joining Kim Bailey though, so don't rule him out all together.
As for the others, Menorah and Dynaste are not top class any more and will fidn younger horses improve past them. Saphir Du Rheu looks set to take up a hurdling option earlier in the week. Wakanda has a decent Class 1 record, having won a hattrick of listed races last season, but he was pulled up in both his Graded starts and has a bit to find. Irish Cavalier needs to find a big improvement from his run at Chepstow (and I can't see that). Sausolito Sunrise is probably a top handicapper, but not quite good enough for this. Finally Virak has ground to make up with Wakanda, never mind the others and I couldn't see him competing here, despite the Nicholls stable form.
Cue Card then looks the most likely winner of the Charlie Hall and it will be interesting to see how he goes with regards to the stable targets. There's a decent horse in orange and black in the same yard and as of Saturday, Tizzard could well have the first two in the Gold Cup market.
It could be an interesting race in behind though and there might be an eye-catcher or two there for some of the other big races this season.
By Red
Red looks forward towards the big race at Wetherby
Aaah, proper racing. Get yer flat caps and tweed ready boys and girls, we're going jumping. The big one this weekend is the Charlie Hall Chase and I've had a look at the contestants.
And nowhere better to start than the Charlie Hall itself. It's the first real clash of the titans for the season ahead and we could be in for a real treat if there's sufficient rain for Coneygree to turn up. Entered only 'in case the ground gets soft' the 2015 Gold Cup winner does catch the eye at the top of the card. But there will remain questions about his fitness and apparently frailty and I'd be happy to swerve him, especially with the trainer's comments about his participation.
Indeed, you'd much rather look to last year's winner and superstar, Cue Card. Did perhaps everything right, except for being too exuberant at three out in the Gold Cup. I'm still convinced he would have ran Don Cossack very close and possibly even beaten him, but who is to say. He made fairly light work of the field last year and you'd expect him to take the same route to the Cheltenham show-piece this year. I don't think the years will be counting against him just yet and he should have too much for this field. If Coneygree turns up it's a different story, but even then, I'd rather be with Cue Card than Mark Bradstock's charge, considering the ground is more likely to be in the former's favour.
The only lurker in the field is last year's RSA winner, Blaklion. Again, he's probably one that will want a bit more rain to come, but he's certainly not to be underestimated. If he quite has the ability to compete with Cue Card remains to be seen, but he is a C&D winner (in the Towton last year) and he could be an exciting addition to the open company bracket.
The Last Samuri could run a decent race, having finished second in the Grand National, but he's another who perhaps wants more ran and a little further on that showing. He has been very good since joining Kim Bailey though, so don't rule him out all together.
As for the others, Menorah and Dynaste are not top class any more and will fidn younger horses improve past them. Saphir Du Rheu looks set to take up a hurdling option earlier in the week. Wakanda has a decent Class 1 record, having won a hattrick of listed races last season, but he was pulled up in both his Graded starts and has a bit to find. Irish Cavalier needs to find a big improvement from his run at Chepstow (and I can't see that). Sausolito Sunrise is probably a top handicapper, but not quite good enough for this. Finally Virak has ground to make up with Wakanda, never mind the others and I couldn't see him competing here, despite the Nicholls stable form.
Cue Card then looks the most likely winner of the Charlie Hall and it will be interesting to see how he goes with regards to the stable targets. There's a decent horse in orange and black in the same yard and as of Saturday, Tizzard could well have the first two in the Gold Cup market.
It could be an interesting race in behind though and there might be an eye-catcher or two there for some of the other big races this season.
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