Cheltenham Preview - Champion Hurdle

Stan James Champion Hurdle Preview

Red looks forward to the first of the Championship races of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival, the Champion Hurdle and gives his thoughts on the likely runners and their chances.

Amid the coming cold and snow of a January cold weather front, we at least have the prospect of Cheltenham to keep us warm. While some ante-post markets may be pretty clear already, there's plenty that are still muddles, none more so than the Champion Hurdle. And as always, it comes down to just one man, Willie Mullins. 

The Closutton trainer has the first two in the market in Faugheen (11/4 Coral) and Annie Power (9/2 Betfair), but concerns over their well-being is making this a hard race to preview. Let's stick to what we know first. Neither of them has been seen on the racecourse this season and we know they won't face up against each other. That's pretty evident from all the talk from the connections. Also, if either of them turns up anywhere near fully fit, they'll win. That may not be a given, but you'd be hard pressed to see them beat if they got there sound. But that leaves us with a whole lot of unknowns.

First of all, which one of the two is the more likely to make it there? For me, it's Faugheen. The 2015 winner hasn't 'sparkled in his work at home' according to Paddy Mullins, but I feel he is the more likely of the two to get there. For two reasons. The first one is simple. Annie Power is a mare. She has doubtless potential as a broodmare once she retires and there has already been talk of that this season. The Ricci's won't want to risk her in this race unless she is 100% fully fighting fit and that probably means getting a run into her before the festival. And that seems more and more unlikely. Secondly, there's an much easier alternative race for her if they are desperate to run her at Cheltenham. The Mares race is still a Grade One and Mullins has a fabulous record in it, even with runners who go there first time out (Quevega says hi), and she would be miles ahead of anything else in the race. But is Faugheen at 11/4 a good price? That all depends on if you think he'll make it there. For me, he is the most likely to and therefore the most likely winner and you won't get anywhere near 11/4 if he is confirmed to go. If you're willing to take the chance, then 11/4 is a superb price.

But what if neither of them turns up. It is a real possibility and that throws the race wide open. No doubt Mullins will have something in reserve, the likes of Vroum Vroum Mag (25/1 PaddyPower) and Nichols Canyon (33/1 various) are obvious super subs and will be a lot shorter if the top two come out. But if they don't, then it's a waste of money, because neither will be likely to run if Faugheen or Annie makes it. Arctic Fire (33/1 various) may or may not make the race as he is another suffering with injury woes.

So let's look away from Mullins and see what catches the eye. The New One (25/1 various) showed much improvement under Dickie Johnson in winning the International Hurdle, but has never sparkled in the showpiece event and was beaten by Yanworth (5/1 various) at Kempton. Both would be suited by the more testing track at Cheltenham, but it's hard to see the former reverse the form. He is however an interesting proposition on the Exchanges where he is 66/1. With Nigel Twiston-Davies already confirming he'll target the race again, he should be shorter on the day and you'll be able to lay off your stake for a profit, especially if the top two come out. 

Brain Power (14/1 888Sport) has been well punted since winning two handicaps and this race could well be of handicap standard by the time. But he was well beaten in the Greatwood and that would concern me if he was to line up here. Petit Mouchoir (8/1 various) is another who's been well backed after his victory at Leopardstown, beating Nichols Canyon by seven lengths and he would certainly enter calculations on the back off that. He didn't enjoy things last year in the Supreme though and festival form is one of those things I really like at Cheltenham.

So what am I going for then? I'll take Faugheen at 11/4 because I'm convinced he'll get there. I haven't got anything solid to back it up, but gut instinct. But I'll give you two who could hit the frame at a price. Haven't mentioned either of them yet, so hold on for the surprise.

First of all, My Tent or Yours (50/1 various). Ok, ok you can stop the laughter out the back, but 50s is waaay to big. The likely better ground at the festival will suit him to a tee and he's got decent festival form with three seconds over track and trip. Sure, he might be past it and that's why he's the price he is, but I genuinely believe there's something more to come from him. Perhaps relinquishing some of his headgear (as has been suggested by some) could allow him to run a bit more freely and eke out the inches needed to improve past some of his lesser priced rivals.

Secondly, a festival winner who hasn't seen much hurdles of late, but could run a big race if his trainer decides to go here with him. Wicklow Brave (33/1) is a classy horse, having won an Irish St Leger, but also a County Hurdle and it wouldn't be the greatest leap of imagination to see him line up here if the top two came out. He's a smooth traveller with C&D and festival form and he could be an surprise outsider.

Suggested:
Faugheen to win, 11/4 @ Coral
My Tent Or Yours 50/1 E/W various
Wicklow Brave 33/1 E/W various

As always, if you have feedback, suggestions or you just want to laugh at my ridiculous choices, @redgameracer on Twitter is the place.

Red