Morning all,
A couple from me today, all with a chance to make the frame.
We start at Bangor, where there is two that I think have a chance. First of all, in the 3.10 there is Velator. A temperamental sort, he's plummeted down the weights this year, back down to his last winning mark of 118. He did pretty well for Peter Bowen in the spring of two years ago, but hasn't quite shown the same form for Neil Mulholland. He should enjoy the good ground that he's getting at Bangor and at 12/1, he's not a bad each way shout. Following that in the 3.40 there is Jacks Last Hope. He is lightly raced for a seven year old and is down to a career low mark of 114, having been rated as high as 130 in his early days when he won a couple of bumpers (including one here over two furlongs shorter) and a novice hurdle. This trip should be his optimum and he will also enjoy the good ground. I'd have liked him to be a bit bigger, but we'll take the 16/1 that's generally available.
On the flat meanwhile, there's a couple of Helmet's out and my followers will know that I'm a big fan of his two year olds so far. We start in the 2.20 at Chelmsford where Kreb's Cycle is the first of the two. He steps up to six furlongs after an indifferent run at Lingfield last time out and he should enjoy that step up. He does have top weight to contend with, but his jockey takes five back off and that could well be enough for him to make his experience count against a couple of decent newcomers. He is joint fav at 11/4. The second of the two Helmets is impressive last time out winner Chupalla in the 6.35 at Sandown. This is a very hot race with the likes of Global Applause and Mehmas all winning las ttime out and it could be a tough ask for Mark Johnston's filly. The market seems keen enough on her though and have her as second favourite behind Mehmas at 7/2
Finally two more that I like are Max Dynamite in the 7.05 at Sandown, but at odds on, he's no great price. At a better price, there's The Quarterjack in the 2.50 at Chelmsford. He has dropped three lbs down below his last winning mark of 70 and Kieran Shoemark takes another five lbs off with his claim. He also goes back up in trip and although it may still be a little on the short side, He could be well in of his mark. A price of 20/1 seems more than fair.
Thursday, 26 May 2016
Tuesday, 24 May 2016
The Decline of Man United
The Decline of Man United
by @redgameracer
I'm not a United supporter, my loyalty has belong the Spurs for many a year. But since United have a penchant for buying our best players year after year, I have followed them with a passing interest.
We all know that United have not been at their brilliant best these last few years. Since the departure of Sir Alex, United have finished seventh, fourth and fifth. Their points tally for those seasons has been lower than any Premier League season under Ferguson. But the problem goes deeper than the bare results. Man United have lost what made them great. Their patience.
Ferguson famously saved his job in 1990 having been there since 1986. United went on to win the FA Cup that year and never looked back. But since Fergie's departure in 2013, Moyes was allowed less than a season (of his six year contract!). Van Gaal got two years. You could argue that Moyes was a patsy, because the first manager after Ferguson would always find it tough. But he wasn't up to the job. He didn't have the big club mentality that United needed. His football was uninspiring and the results reflected that. But for all that, he had been left with a squad that had peaked. Admittedly, a side that had won the league previously, but nonetheless they had reached their top and were back down on the decline. He wasn't given sufficient backing and time to change that.
Van Gaal at least did bring them silverware, but the FA Cup trophy was too little too late for the big chiefs. Van Gaal did get the money and he spent a lot of it. But he also brought through a number of young players as is his forte. I'm probably biased, being Dutch and having grown up watching THAT Ajax side, but I feel that given more time, Van Gaal would've delivered the league. But I won't argue that the football was disappointing at times, especially the early part of this season. The injection of youth, with the likes of Rashford and Lingard, brought improvement towards the end of the campaign, but not enough to see them claim that vital Champions League place.
The circumstances around Van Gaal's sacking do not improve matters for United. The news was out as soon as the club had clinched the Cup and rumours had been floating around ever since Mourinho left Chelsea. It's obvious that contact had long been made and deals were done before the season was over and that is disappointing. A club with the size and the history of United should hold itself to a higher standard. It should be a class above the likes of City and Chelsea, but instead it's dragging itself down into the mire. You feel this sort of thing would never have happened with David Gill still in charge and I can't imagine Ferguson would go for this sort of thing either. In that sense, Mourinho will make a perfect fit.
Going forward, I can't see the appointment of Mourinho bring much improvement in the footballing sense. Yes, the results may well improve, but the manner in which they are achieved will not be to the same standards as under Sir Alex. But as long as Jose keeps his cool, the fans will have silverware to cheer. On the pitch, they really need a top notch centre back to solidify their defence. But most of the pieces elsewhere are in place. As for van Gaal, retirement is an option. But the sentimentalist in me fancies him to have one more crack of the whip. Back home, where it all began. After all, Ajax are currently without a manager.
by @redgameracer
I'm not a United supporter, my loyalty has belong the Spurs for many a year. But since United have a penchant for buying our best players year after year, I have followed them with a passing interest.
We all know that United have not been at their brilliant best these last few years. Since the departure of Sir Alex, United have finished seventh, fourth and fifth. Their points tally for those seasons has been lower than any Premier League season under Ferguson. But the problem goes deeper than the bare results. Man United have lost what made them great. Their patience.
Ferguson famously saved his job in 1990 having been there since 1986. United went on to win the FA Cup that year and never looked back. But since Fergie's departure in 2013, Moyes was allowed less than a season (of his six year contract!). Van Gaal got two years. You could argue that Moyes was a patsy, because the first manager after Ferguson would always find it tough. But he wasn't up to the job. He didn't have the big club mentality that United needed. His football was uninspiring and the results reflected that. But for all that, he had been left with a squad that had peaked. Admittedly, a side that had won the league previously, but nonetheless they had reached their top and were back down on the decline. He wasn't given sufficient backing and time to change that.
Van Gaal at least did bring them silverware, but the FA Cup trophy was too little too late for the big chiefs. Van Gaal did get the money and he spent a lot of it. But he also brought through a number of young players as is his forte. I'm probably biased, being Dutch and having grown up watching THAT Ajax side, but I feel that given more time, Van Gaal would've delivered the league. But I won't argue that the football was disappointing at times, especially the early part of this season. The injection of youth, with the likes of Rashford and Lingard, brought improvement towards the end of the campaign, but not enough to see them claim that vital Champions League place.
The circumstances around Van Gaal's sacking do not improve matters for United. The news was out as soon as the club had clinched the Cup and rumours had been floating around ever since Mourinho left Chelsea. It's obvious that contact had long been made and deals were done before the season was over and that is disappointing. A club with the size and the history of United should hold itself to a higher standard. It should be a class above the likes of City and Chelsea, but instead it's dragging itself down into the mire. You feel this sort of thing would never have happened with David Gill still in charge and I can't imagine Ferguson would go for this sort of thing either. In that sense, Mourinho will make a perfect fit.
Going forward, I can't see the appointment of Mourinho bring much improvement in the footballing sense. Yes, the results may well improve, but the manner in which they are achieved will not be to the same standards as under Sir Alex. But as long as Jose keeps his cool, the fans will have silverware to cheer. On the pitch, they really need a top notch centre back to solidify their defence. But most of the pieces elsewhere are in place. As for van Gaal, retirement is an option. But the sentimentalist in me fancies him to have one more crack of the whip. Back home, where it all began. After all, Ajax are currently without a manager.
Thursday, 19 May 2016
Reds Racing Tips 19-05
Morning all,
A couple for today
One that's leapt off the page for me today is Sark @ 10/1 in the 3.30 at Goodwood. Won last time out at Doncaster over 1m 2f, but has won over this trip of one furlong less on the All-Weather at Wolverhampton. He had three subsequent winners (Red Verdon, Grapevine and Paling) behind that day. 1 lb less on his back today and his price seems a bit big to me considering the form. Thaqaffa is probably a decent favourite having split a pair of improvers last time out, but he's never tried a trip this far, while Bedrock for Ryan Moore was beaten by the aforementioned Grapevine last time out, so will have something to find with the selection on that run.
In the 4.35 at the same venue, Golden Horn's half sister Golden Reign has her second career run. She shaped really well on debut and it should be no surprise if she follows that up with a win today. Evens is the best price I've found.
Good luck
A couple for today
One that's leapt off the page for me today is Sark @ 10/1 in the 3.30 at Goodwood. Won last time out at Doncaster over 1m 2f, but has won over this trip of one furlong less on the All-Weather at Wolverhampton. He had three subsequent winners (Red Verdon, Grapevine and Paling) behind that day. 1 lb less on his back today and his price seems a bit big to me considering the form. Thaqaffa is probably a decent favourite having split a pair of improvers last time out, but he's never tried a trip this far, while Bedrock for Ryan Moore was beaten by the aforementioned Grapevine last time out, so will have something to find with the selection on that run.
In the 4.35 at the same venue, Golden Horn's half sister Golden Reign has her second career run. She shaped really well on debut and it should be no surprise if she follows that up with a win today. Evens is the best price I've found.
Good luck
Friday, 29 April 2016
29-04 Punchestown Day Four
Morning all,
Quick run through of the card, not a full write up.
3.40 Hard to see past Shin A Vee at 4/1. Loves it 'round here and goes well fresh. Enniskillen ran a good race in the opener on Tuesday, but that seemed like a tough old race for him and that might have taken enough out of him.
4.20 Balnagon Boy (14/1) ran a cracker to win at Fairyhouse in November and again in January when he was second to Marlbrook by 3 and half lengths and may well have got closer if it wasn't for a pair of mistakes on the run in. He carries 21 lbs less today and that shift in the weights could help him enormously. He still has a tough task in a much better race, but I think he could run a good race. Any additional rain will help.
4.55 Definite Ruby (16/1) hasn't won in a while, but has been running creditably without challenging for honours, her best a 2nd at Cheltenham in October. She steps back down in trip and this sort of distance will be much more suited that the marathon trip she tried last time.
5.30 Vroum Vroum Mag (6/4) Intriguing race, but I have to go with Vroum Vroum. She was very good at Cheltenham and I don't think we've seen the depth of her abilities yet. She may need everything she's got over a trip that's probably on the short side and in open company, but as we saw with Annie Power, that's not necessarily a negative. My Tent Or Yours comes into contention if he can run to form, but he's had two hard races after a long break and despite Nicky's magic, you'd have to think this is one too far. Identity Thief would be my main danger here.
6.05 Thomas Hobson (9/1). He has a massive engine, but the main doubt is his jumping. He can be a bit wayward at times and he's not quite good enough to get away with that. However, if he can repeat his Warwick run on better ground here, he could be hard to beat. Big danger is Jer's Girl getting a lot of weight all round and A Toi Phil and Disko shouldn't be discounted either.
6.40 Taking a punt here on Koshari (3/1). By Walk in The Park, the same sire as Douvan, he makes his debut for Willie Mullins and could be absolutely anything. The fact that he makes his debut here is interesting in itself, but apart from Bello Conti, there's not too much opposition in my view. This could well be another potential star for the Mullins/Ricci combination.
7.10 Another day, another flat race and I don't really have a massive opinion on this. Some Neck and No Comment (both 7/2) are probably the most likely chances although neither has managed to get his head in front yet.
7.45 On The Fringe (10/11) has racked up a hattrick last year and is going for the repeat this year. Nina and Enda are proably the best in the game as this sort of race, so who am I to oppose them
Thursday results (as posted on Twitter @redgameracer)
3.40 Dollar And A Dream 9/1 16th
4.15 Bright New Dawn 12/1 1st
4.50 Quantativeeasing 9/2 1st
5.30 Alpha Des Obeaux 1/1 3rd
6.05 At Fishers Cross 16/1 8th
6.40 Douvan to beat Ttebbob 1st & 5th
7.15 Missy Tata 15/8 1st
7.45 Blast of Koeman 16/1 2nd
Wednesday results
3.40 Steamboat Bill 14/1 10th
4.20 Balko Des Flos 11/2 7th
4.55 Acapella Bourgeois 5/1 4th
5.30 Cue Card 8/13 4th
6.05 Castello Sforza 9/1 NR
6.40 Colms Dream 13/2 2nd
7.15 Forge Meadow 5/1 2nd
Quick run through of the card, not a full write up.
3.40 Hard to see past Shin A Vee at 4/1. Loves it 'round here and goes well fresh. Enniskillen ran a good race in the opener on Tuesday, but that seemed like a tough old race for him and that might have taken enough out of him.
4.20 Balnagon Boy (14/1) ran a cracker to win at Fairyhouse in November and again in January when he was second to Marlbrook by 3 and half lengths and may well have got closer if it wasn't for a pair of mistakes on the run in. He carries 21 lbs less today and that shift in the weights could help him enormously. He still has a tough task in a much better race, but I think he could run a good race. Any additional rain will help.
4.55 Definite Ruby (16/1) hasn't won in a while, but has been running creditably without challenging for honours, her best a 2nd at Cheltenham in October. She steps back down in trip and this sort of distance will be much more suited that the marathon trip she tried last time.
5.30 Vroum Vroum Mag (6/4) Intriguing race, but I have to go with Vroum Vroum. She was very good at Cheltenham and I don't think we've seen the depth of her abilities yet. She may need everything she's got over a trip that's probably on the short side and in open company, but as we saw with Annie Power, that's not necessarily a negative. My Tent Or Yours comes into contention if he can run to form, but he's had two hard races after a long break and despite Nicky's magic, you'd have to think this is one too far. Identity Thief would be my main danger here.
6.05 Thomas Hobson (9/1). He has a massive engine, but the main doubt is his jumping. He can be a bit wayward at times and he's not quite good enough to get away with that. However, if he can repeat his Warwick run on better ground here, he could be hard to beat. Big danger is Jer's Girl getting a lot of weight all round and A Toi Phil and Disko shouldn't be discounted either.
6.40 Taking a punt here on Koshari (3/1). By Walk in The Park, the same sire as Douvan, he makes his debut for Willie Mullins and could be absolutely anything. The fact that he makes his debut here is interesting in itself, but apart from Bello Conti, there's not too much opposition in my view. This could well be another potential star for the Mullins/Ricci combination.
7.10 Another day, another flat race and I don't really have a massive opinion on this. Some Neck and No Comment (both 7/2) are probably the most likely chances although neither has managed to get his head in front yet.
7.45 On The Fringe (10/11) has racked up a hattrick last year and is going for the repeat this year. Nina and Enda are proably the best in the game as this sort of race, so who am I to oppose them
Thursday results (as posted on Twitter @redgameracer)
3.40 Dollar And A Dream 9/1 16th
4.15 Bright New Dawn 12/1 1st
4.50 Quantativeeasing 9/2 1st
5.30 Alpha Des Obeaux 1/1 3rd
6.05 At Fishers Cross 16/1 8th
6.40 Douvan to beat Ttebbob 1st & 5th
7.15 Missy Tata 15/8 1st
7.45 Blast of Koeman 16/1 2nd
Wednesday results
3.40 Steamboat Bill 14/1 10th
4.20 Balko Des Flos 11/2 7th
4.55 Acapella Bourgeois 5/1 4th
5.30 Cue Card 8/13 4th
6.05 Castello Sforza 9/1 NR
6.40 Colms Dream 13/2 2nd
7.15 Forge Meadow 5/1 2nd
Tuesday, 26 April 2016
27-04 Punchestown Day Two
Evening all,
Decent results for day one, although the short price favs got overturned. Probably plenty more surprises abound, so keep an eye on short prices.
We start off with a very open handicap race at 3.40 and you could make a case for a number of these, but I'm going to have a go at Steamboat Bill. He won well enough last time out and his trainer Gordon Elliot has been in decent form. He knows how to get one ready for a handicap and the selection could well have a winning debut in a tough race.
Another hurdles race follows at 4.20 and Supasundae appears the hot favourite. I fancied him to run a big race in the Supreme, but he disappointed that time and I'm not sure this step up in trip will help him to be seen in a better light. Alternatives aplenty further down the betting with Woodland Opera and Hard to Call both having form in these conditions, but the one I like most would be Balko Des Flos. He won over C&D back in January and could well repeat that performance on a bigger stage.
Three miles Novice hurdle next and Bellshill will be the hot favourite. He's had a tough old season though and despite battling back to claim second at Aintree, I'd have to swerve him. It's a wide open race really, with the likes of General Principle, Gangster and Emerging Force, but the one I'm going to pick here is Acapella Bourgeois. He has won three out of his last four races and I think he may well grab another here.
The Punchestown Gold Cup could be the crown on the work of Colin Tizzard and Cue Card this season. He could bottom out here having had a hard season, but I don't think that'll happen. Tizzard's charge has been rejuvenated this season and unless there's a deluge of rain in the run up to this, I can't see past him. Djakadam, Don Poli and Road To Riches are the main dangers, but don't rule out the others down the betting at bigger prices. If I'd have to pick one of them to follow home Cue Card, it would be Road to Riches. This is a better trip for him and conditions will be more to his liking.
Another Bumper next (like we haven't had any of those yet!). It should be a cracking race with some highly likeable types lining up, Moon Racer among them. He could still be anything, but hasn't been seen for over a year and his readiness has to be taken on trust. Bacardys and Battleford have both ran in the bumpers at Aintree and Cheltenham and could well be running out of steam, so my preference goes to Castello Sforza. He wasn't far away in the Cheltenham bumper and swerved Aintree in favour of this. That could well stand him in good stead, but there's plenty here with a chance.
A handicap chase is our penultimate race and it's another open contest. However, I have to go with the favourite here, Colms Dream. He's been in top form all season, having won over C&D and he has the five lbs claim of Donagh Meyler to go with him. He has had a long season, but he can get one more big win on the board before a well deserved summer break.
Finally, we have a mares bumper to round things off. For me, this one is between the top four in the market. Augusta Kate, The Nipper, Forge Meadow and Copper Kay. Augusta Kate probably has the best form, having come second in the Aintree equivalent, but she's perhaps running too soon since and I'd rather pick the unexposed Forge Meadow for Jessie Harrington. She has terrific record in bumpers and this one could well be a very good mare for the Harrington team.
Wednesday's selections
3.40 Steamboat Bill 14/1
4.20 Balko Des Flos 11/2
4.55 Acapella Bourgeois 5/1
5.30 Cue Card 8/13
6.05 Castello Sforza 9/1
6.40 Colms Dream 13/2
7.15 Forge Meadow 5/1
Tuesday's Results:
3.40 Wish Ye Didn't 6/4 Won
4.20 Yorkhill 1/2 to beat Petit Mouchoir 11/2 4th & 2nd
4.55 Automated 7/1 & Art of Payroll 14/1 8th & 9th
5.30 Vautour no bet 2nd
6.05 Moulin A Vent 12/1 3rd
6.40 Zabana 5/1, Sub Lieutentant 28/1 Won & 3rd
7.15 Art of Supremacy 8/1 17th
Decent results for day one, although the short price favs got overturned. Probably plenty more surprises abound, so keep an eye on short prices.
We start off with a very open handicap race at 3.40 and you could make a case for a number of these, but I'm going to have a go at Steamboat Bill. He won well enough last time out and his trainer Gordon Elliot has been in decent form. He knows how to get one ready for a handicap and the selection could well have a winning debut in a tough race.
Another hurdles race follows at 4.20 and Supasundae appears the hot favourite. I fancied him to run a big race in the Supreme, but he disappointed that time and I'm not sure this step up in trip will help him to be seen in a better light. Alternatives aplenty further down the betting with Woodland Opera and Hard to Call both having form in these conditions, but the one I like most would be Balko Des Flos. He won over C&D back in January and could well repeat that performance on a bigger stage.
Three miles Novice hurdle next and Bellshill will be the hot favourite. He's had a tough old season though and despite battling back to claim second at Aintree, I'd have to swerve him. It's a wide open race really, with the likes of General Principle, Gangster and Emerging Force, but the one I'm going to pick here is Acapella Bourgeois. He has won three out of his last four races and I think he may well grab another here.
The Punchestown Gold Cup could be the crown on the work of Colin Tizzard and Cue Card this season. He could bottom out here having had a hard season, but I don't think that'll happen. Tizzard's charge has been rejuvenated this season and unless there's a deluge of rain in the run up to this, I can't see past him. Djakadam, Don Poli and Road To Riches are the main dangers, but don't rule out the others down the betting at bigger prices. If I'd have to pick one of them to follow home Cue Card, it would be Road to Riches. This is a better trip for him and conditions will be more to his liking.
Another Bumper next (like we haven't had any of those yet!). It should be a cracking race with some highly likeable types lining up, Moon Racer among them. He could still be anything, but hasn't been seen for over a year and his readiness has to be taken on trust. Bacardys and Battleford have both ran in the bumpers at Aintree and Cheltenham and could well be running out of steam, so my preference goes to Castello Sforza. He wasn't far away in the Cheltenham bumper and swerved Aintree in favour of this. That could well stand him in good stead, but there's plenty here with a chance.
A handicap chase is our penultimate race and it's another open contest. However, I have to go with the favourite here, Colms Dream. He's been in top form all season, having won over C&D and he has the five lbs claim of Donagh Meyler to go with him. He has had a long season, but he can get one more big win on the board before a well deserved summer break.
Finally, we have a mares bumper to round things off. For me, this one is between the top four in the market. Augusta Kate, The Nipper, Forge Meadow and Copper Kay. Augusta Kate probably has the best form, having come second in the Aintree equivalent, but she's perhaps running too soon since and I'd rather pick the unexposed Forge Meadow for Jessie Harrington. She has terrific record in bumpers and this one could well be a very good mare for the Harrington team.
Wednesday's selections
3.40 Steamboat Bill 14/1
4.20 Balko Des Flos 11/2
4.55 Acapella Bourgeois 5/1
5.30 Cue Card 8/13
6.05 Castello Sforza 9/1
6.40 Colms Dream 13/2
7.15 Forge Meadow 5/1
Tuesday's Results:
3.40 Wish Ye Didn't 6/4 Won
4.20 Yorkhill 1/2 to beat Petit Mouchoir 11/2 4th & 2nd
4.55 Automated 7/1 & Art of Payroll 14/1 8th & 9th
5.30 Vautour no bet 2nd
6.05 Moulin A Vent 12/1 3rd
6.40 Zabana 5/1, Sub Lieutentant 28/1 Won & 3rd
7.15 Art of Supremacy 8/1 17th
26-04 Punchestown Day One
Morning all,
the last throes of the National Hunt season today as the five-day Punchestown Festival brings proceedings to a close. Of course, there will be some summer jumping, but the big guns will go out to grass for the summer, rest on their laurels and we'll see them fit and ready to go again come the autumn. We have a good day in prospect for day one, with three Grade One races, including the Punchestown Champion Chase.
But we start matters with the Memorial Chase over three miles over the banks. That immediately makes you think Enda Bolger & Nina Carberry and they team up again with last year's winner Wish Ye Didnt. Bolger also runs Strangford Lough and Be Positive. Of the three of them, I'd happily swerve the latter as he's been off the track since 2014 and I'm reluctant to back a horse that has been away for that long. The other two both have great chances, with Strangford Lough having the other to jockey on board in Jamie Codd. Of the outsiders, Enniskillen and Mia's Milan well do well, but they'll have a tough task dislodging Bolger from his top spot in this race. I'll go with the proven form of Wish Ye Didn't to keep Bolger's excellent record going.
Next we go to the Novice Hurdle over two miles, the first of our Grade ones. This should be all about Yorkhill. He raced very keenly last time out at Aintree, practically pulling himself to the front and nearly doing too much, but he held on to win from Le Prezien. He was far more impressive at the festival under a patient ride from Ruby Walsh and the master has recovered in time from a wrist fracture to take the reigns again. He remains unbeaten and should really be too good for these even over the shorter trip of two miles. The trick is then to pick the one that will follow him home. Petit Mouchoir was an excellent second behind Buveur D'Air at Aintree and if ridden with the same prominent tactics should have a good chance to do the same here. Charbel ran well in the Supreme, but ultimately faded into fifth and would need to have improved to serve it up.
Next up is a two mile handicap hurdle and this is a typical open contest. A lot of these will have chances, but I'm going to go with Automated. He was a good second to Ivan Grozny at Aintree, but well clear of the rest of the field. Jack Kennedy claims three and that could well be a decisive factor. Another I like in this big field of 21 is Art of Payroll. Donagh Meyler is another conditional who has been going well this season and he claims five off Sandra Hughes' charge. They're both a decent price (7/1 & 14/1 best prices) and with four places to aim for there's value there.
Next to the race I'm most looking forward to, the Champion Chase. This one is all about Vautour for me. My favourite horse in training and he has the potential to be an all-time great. He was an uncharacteristic faller last time out at Aintree when bowling along in front. His drop in trip over two miles could be a sign of things to come next year and it will be interesting to see how he goes, but for all intents and purposes, this is not a betting race for me. Sit back and enjoy.
The Land Rover Bumper next and Jenkins is the hot favourite after Nicky Henderson booked Paddy Mullins to ride. He is a master of these sort of races, but it wouldn't surprise me if the favourite got overturned here. There's a few useful sorts in here and at the prices, I'm happy to chance the likes of Hardline or Moulin A Vent. Hardline does wear a hood on debut, which is not something I'm fond off, but he made a winning point debut and Gordon Elliot is in good form. Moulin A Vent makes his debut for Noel Meade under Nina Carberry and he is related to a few decent sorts and could well spring a surprise.
The final Grade One of the day is the three mile Novice Chase and this is a pretty open contest. Zabana and Davy Russell will be keen to take revenge for their shambles at the start of the JLT when the jockey was unseated taking a turn. He was tipped up by a few that day and could well gain revenge here. Outlander took a tumble in the same race before being upstaged by Kylemore Lough at Fairyhouse ten days later. That race may well have come too soon and he could bounce back to form. Rule The World comes back from his win in the National to join novice company once more, but this is a completely different test and I don't think he'll make it two from two. Henryville needs to make a big step up in grade in order to make his presence felt and although he arrives here fresh, it may well be too tough an ask. Southfield Royale steps back down in trip from his fourth in the National Hunt Chase over four miles, but he has form over this trip, having finished second to Tea for Two at Christmas. As an outsider, I wouldn't be surprised to see a big run from Sub Lieutentant. He won a Grade 3 contest over 2 and a half miles at Naas in heavy ground and he seems built for a stamina test. At a big price, I woulnd't put anyone off. As for the winner, I reckon Zabana may well get his compensation and claim the spoils.
A flat race to end the day is not my cup of tea, but if I'd have to pick one then on form, Art of Supremacy looks good. He finished well in his debut race and could have progressed from that. The other obvious choice would be the Mullins debutant from France, but they can be hit as often as miss, so I'll swerve him.
3.40 Wish Ye Didn't 6/4
4.20 Yorkhill 1/2 to beat Petit Mouchoir 11/2
4.55 Automated 7/1 & Art of Payroll 14/1
5.30 Vautour no bet
6.05 Moulin A Vent 12/1
6.40 Zabana 5/1, Sub Lieutentant 28/1
7.15 Art of Supremacy 8/1
the last throes of the National Hunt season today as the five-day Punchestown Festival brings proceedings to a close. Of course, there will be some summer jumping, but the big guns will go out to grass for the summer, rest on their laurels and we'll see them fit and ready to go again come the autumn. We have a good day in prospect for day one, with three Grade One races, including the Punchestown Champion Chase.
But we start matters with the Memorial Chase over three miles over the banks. That immediately makes you think Enda Bolger & Nina Carberry and they team up again with last year's winner Wish Ye Didnt. Bolger also runs Strangford Lough and Be Positive. Of the three of them, I'd happily swerve the latter as he's been off the track since 2014 and I'm reluctant to back a horse that has been away for that long. The other two both have great chances, with Strangford Lough having the other to jockey on board in Jamie Codd. Of the outsiders, Enniskillen and Mia's Milan well do well, but they'll have a tough task dislodging Bolger from his top spot in this race. I'll go with the proven form of Wish Ye Didn't to keep Bolger's excellent record going.
Next we go to the Novice Hurdle over two miles, the first of our Grade ones. This should be all about Yorkhill. He raced very keenly last time out at Aintree, practically pulling himself to the front and nearly doing too much, but he held on to win from Le Prezien. He was far more impressive at the festival under a patient ride from Ruby Walsh and the master has recovered in time from a wrist fracture to take the reigns again. He remains unbeaten and should really be too good for these even over the shorter trip of two miles. The trick is then to pick the one that will follow him home. Petit Mouchoir was an excellent second behind Buveur D'Air at Aintree and if ridden with the same prominent tactics should have a good chance to do the same here. Charbel ran well in the Supreme, but ultimately faded into fifth and would need to have improved to serve it up.
Next up is a two mile handicap hurdle and this is a typical open contest. A lot of these will have chances, but I'm going to go with Automated. He was a good second to Ivan Grozny at Aintree, but well clear of the rest of the field. Jack Kennedy claims three and that could well be a decisive factor. Another I like in this big field of 21 is Art of Payroll. Donagh Meyler is another conditional who has been going well this season and he claims five off Sandra Hughes' charge. They're both a decent price (7/1 & 14/1 best prices) and with four places to aim for there's value there.
Next to the race I'm most looking forward to, the Champion Chase. This one is all about Vautour for me. My favourite horse in training and he has the potential to be an all-time great. He was an uncharacteristic faller last time out at Aintree when bowling along in front. His drop in trip over two miles could be a sign of things to come next year and it will be interesting to see how he goes, but for all intents and purposes, this is not a betting race for me. Sit back and enjoy.
The Land Rover Bumper next and Jenkins is the hot favourite after Nicky Henderson booked Paddy Mullins to ride. He is a master of these sort of races, but it wouldn't surprise me if the favourite got overturned here. There's a few useful sorts in here and at the prices, I'm happy to chance the likes of Hardline or Moulin A Vent. Hardline does wear a hood on debut, which is not something I'm fond off, but he made a winning point debut and Gordon Elliot is in good form. Moulin A Vent makes his debut for Noel Meade under Nina Carberry and he is related to a few decent sorts and could well spring a surprise.
The final Grade One of the day is the three mile Novice Chase and this is a pretty open contest. Zabana and Davy Russell will be keen to take revenge for their shambles at the start of the JLT when the jockey was unseated taking a turn. He was tipped up by a few that day and could well gain revenge here. Outlander took a tumble in the same race before being upstaged by Kylemore Lough at Fairyhouse ten days later. That race may well have come too soon and he could bounce back to form. Rule The World comes back from his win in the National to join novice company once more, but this is a completely different test and I don't think he'll make it two from two. Henryville needs to make a big step up in grade in order to make his presence felt and although he arrives here fresh, it may well be too tough an ask. Southfield Royale steps back down in trip from his fourth in the National Hunt Chase over four miles, but he has form over this trip, having finished second to Tea for Two at Christmas. As an outsider, I wouldn't be surprised to see a big run from Sub Lieutentant. He won a Grade 3 contest over 2 and a half miles at Naas in heavy ground and he seems built for a stamina test. At a big price, I woulnd't put anyone off. As for the winner, I reckon Zabana may well get his compensation and claim the spoils.
A flat race to end the day is not my cup of tea, but if I'd have to pick one then on form, Art of Supremacy looks good. He finished well in his debut race and could have progressed from that. The other obvious choice would be the Mullins debutant from France, but they can be hit as often as miss, so I'll swerve him.
3.40 Wish Ye Didn't 6/4
4.20 Yorkhill 1/2 to beat Petit Mouchoir 11/2
4.55 Automated 7/1 & Art of Payroll 14/1
5.30 Vautour no bet
6.05 Moulin A Vent 12/1
6.40 Zabana 5/1, Sub Lieutentant 28/1
7.15 Art of Supremacy 8/1
Friday, 22 April 2016
23-04 Sandown Preview
Evening all,
Blog with a bit of a difference tonight as I look just to one card tomorrow, the final jumps meeting of the year at Sandown. There's plenty at stake, with a Listed Hurdle, a Grade 3 Handicap, and Grade 1 and 2 races as well as the Trainer's Championship that will be decided. I think Paul Nicholls may just hang onto his title, but it's been a phenomenal effort by Willie Mullins, considering he hasn't really targeted the title until the Aintree meeting.
Over to the racing though and we start with the Juvenile Handicap Hurdle over two miles. Both title chasers have a runner each with Voix de Reve lining up for Mullins and Tommy Silver for Nicholls. The former was going very well in the Fred Winter prior coming to grief and could well have won that race but for his fall at the last. He has to contend with top weight though and although David Mullins takes three off, that could well be enough to scupper his bid for victory. Nicholls' runner lined up in the Triumph instead, but couldn't make much of an impact against the runaway winner. He was sixteen lengths behind at the finish, but had been showing plenty of potential at Newbury and Musselburgh prior to that. Ashoka, Duke Street and Darebin are all runners with place claims. The first lines up for the in-form Skelton team and makes his handicap bow. Duke Street did well to romp away with the spoils over a slightly longer trip at Newbury while the Darebin is the only C&D winner in the field for Gary Moore. If I had to pick one though, it would be Wolf of Windlesham. He won twice over hurdles in the autumn, both times at a big price, before being tailed off in heavy ground at Cheltenham. He made a winning reappearance on the all-weather subsequently and the return to good ground will stand him in good stead. At 11/1, he is the value pick for me.
We go on to the Oaksey Chase, a Grade two over two miles and six furlongs. Two here for Mullins, including hot favourite Valseur Lido. Frankly, I struggle to see him beaten here. He was second to the rampant Vautour in the Ryanair and comes here incredibly well weighted compared to his rivals. Mullins other runner Ballycasey has not turned out the horse that many had hoped and I don't think he'll challenge for honours here. Paul Nicholls has three in the race and his best chance lies with Saphir du Rheu. Once touted as a rising star, he has disappointed this season, but perhaps first time blinkers can spark some improvement. I don't think he'll beat Valseur Lido though. Of the other runners, Menorah will appreciate the better ground and he's likely been targeted at this race with champion jockey Richard Johnson on board.
Next to the Grade One Celebration Chase and it looks to be a fascinating rematch of the Champion Chase between Sprinter Sacre and Un de Sceaux. Both have marks against rather than for them in this race. We'll start with the public's hero, Sprinter Sacre. He seems best caught fresh these days, but the going seems to be likely more in his favour than his main market rival's. Sprinter also loves Cheltenham more than anywhere as he excels up that hill. Mullins will hope that Un De Sceaux can defy the better ground and hopefully get an easy lead. The absence of Special Tiara is a big boost in that sense. Both horses are excellent jumpers although UDS tends to be a risky jumper, but if it comes off here, he could well claim the spoils. If these two stay upright though, the rest of the field (including three Nicholls horses) are fighting for third at best. I'm going to go for Un De Sceaux, despite the conditions as I think he'll be better suited by the quick jumps down the back straight and the likely lead.
Both men have runners in the most valuable race of the day, the Bet365 Gold Cup, with Nicholls' Southfield Theatre at the top of the market. He's been aimed at this race and is sure to give a good account. It's an incredibly open race though, but I'm going to take two against the field. I like the chances of Theatre Guide. He ran a great race in the BetBright chase, before falling at the festival, but is hardy sort and will be suited by this distance. He's had a great season, the Tizzard yard is still flying and Paddy Brennan has enjoyed some great days as well. The other one is a bit of an ambitious effort, but I think Oscar Rock can go well. He's a big price and does have his stamina to prove over this trip, but Malcolm Jefferson has his yard in good form and this is his only runner on the card. At 33/1, I'm happy to stick a quid each way on and see how he goes.
The listed hurdle is all about Mullins again. Vroum Vroum Mag is a very classy mare and is still unbeaten for her trainer. She's a short price, but on the back of her impressive Cheltenham win, I think that's justified. She takes on the boys for the first time, but this is probably her optimum trip and I wouldn't be surprised if she dealt with these. Ptit Zig is one of three Nicholls runners and makes appeal on his second in the Cleeve Hurdle behind the rampant Thistlecrack. That effort came after losing his way a bit over fences, but he hasn't won a hurldes race in a long while and that would be a concern. Vaniteux looked set for second in the Arkle before falling, but he's charting new territory over this distance and I think he is better of over a shorter trip.
Nicholls seems to hold all the cards in the Novice chase, with the top two in the betting, Calipto and Some Buckle. Of the two, the latter would have my preference after his good win last time out and would probably be my selection to claw some cash back for Nicholls. Don't rule out C&D winner Antony at a big price though. Gary Moore's charge was an impressive winner back in November and returns here having had a pipe opener at Kempton.
Finally the crap shoot of a Handicap Hurdle with twenty runners to sort out. Three for Mullins and four for Nicholls and all seven could well contest the finish. Mullins best hope could well lie with handicap debutant Bellow Mome. He is seeking a hattrick under Paul Townend and could have anything in hand on his debut in this sort of race. Red Hanrahan is probably Nicholls best bet, as I don't rate Qualando. But if I'm picking a couple against the field, I'm once again putting my faith in Paddy & Colin. Royal Vacation is also chasing a hattrick with his defeats this season coming against the likes of Yanworth & Champers On Ice. He seems fairly weighted to compete and I'd like to see the connections finish their season with another race win. At a price though, I can't rule out Mad Jack Mytton. I've been putting him up in handicap hurdles all season and I'm going to give him one more poke. He has the ability and his finishes of 00U don't tell the full story of his runs. He;s caught the eye on occasions and Jonjo O'Neill is coming right at this time of year. Richard Johnson has been booked and it would be great for the champ to end with a winner.
2.20 Wolf of Windlesham 11/1
2.55 Valseur Lido 5/6
3.35 Un de Sceaux 6/4
4.10 Theatre Guide 16/1, Oscar Rock 33/1
4.45 Vroum Vroum Mag 8/11
5.20 Some Buckle 11/2
5.55 Royal Vacation 14/1, Mad Jack Mytton 20/1
Blog with a bit of a difference tonight as I look just to one card tomorrow, the final jumps meeting of the year at Sandown. There's plenty at stake, with a Listed Hurdle, a Grade 3 Handicap, and Grade 1 and 2 races as well as the Trainer's Championship that will be decided. I think Paul Nicholls may just hang onto his title, but it's been a phenomenal effort by Willie Mullins, considering he hasn't really targeted the title until the Aintree meeting.
Over to the racing though and we start with the Juvenile Handicap Hurdle over two miles. Both title chasers have a runner each with Voix de Reve lining up for Mullins and Tommy Silver for Nicholls. The former was going very well in the Fred Winter prior coming to grief and could well have won that race but for his fall at the last. He has to contend with top weight though and although David Mullins takes three off, that could well be enough to scupper his bid for victory. Nicholls' runner lined up in the Triumph instead, but couldn't make much of an impact against the runaway winner. He was sixteen lengths behind at the finish, but had been showing plenty of potential at Newbury and Musselburgh prior to that. Ashoka, Duke Street and Darebin are all runners with place claims. The first lines up for the in-form Skelton team and makes his handicap bow. Duke Street did well to romp away with the spoils over a slightly longer trip at Newbury while the Darebin is the only C&D winner in the field for Gary Moore. If I had to pick one though, it would be Wolf of Windlesham. He won twice over hurdles in the autumn, both times at a big price, before being tailed off in heavy ground at Cheltenham. He made a winning reappearance on the all-weather subsequently and the return to good ground will stand him in good stead. At 11/1, he is the value pick for me.
We go on to the Oaksey Chase, a Grade two over two miles and six furlongs. Two here for Mullins, including hot favourite Valseur Lido. Frankly, I struggle to see him beaten here. He was second to the rampant Vautour in the Ryanair and comes here incredibly well weighted compared to his rivals. Mullins other runner Ballycasey has not turned out the horse that many had hoped and I don't think he'll challenge for honours here. Paul Nicholls has three in the race and his best chance lies with Saphir du Rheu. Once touted as a rising star, he has disappointed this season, but perhaps first time blinkers can spark some improvement. I don't think he'll beat Valseur Lido though. Of the other runners, Menorah will appreciate the better ground and he's likely been targeted at this race with champion jockey Richard Johnson on board.
Next to the Grade One Celebration Chase and it looks to be a fascinating rematch of the Champion Chase between Sprinter Sacre and Un de Sceaux. Both have marks against rather than for them in this race. We'll start with the public's hero, Sprinter Sacre. He seems best caught fresh these days, but the going seems to be likely more in his favour than his main market rival's. Sprinter also loves Cheltenham more than anywhere as he excels up that hill. Mullins will hope that Un De Sceaux can defy the better ground and hopefully get an easy lead. The absence of Special Tiara is a big boost in that sense. Both horses are excellent jumpers although UDS tends to be a risky jumper, but if it comes off here, he could well claim the spoils. If these two stay upright though, the rest of the field (including three Nicholls horses) are fighting for third at best. I'm going to go for Un De Sceaux, despite the conditions as I think he'll be better suited by the quick jumps down the back straight and the likely lead.
Both men have runners in the most valuable race of the day, the Bet365 Gold Cup, with Nicholls' Southfield Theatre at the top of the market. He's been aimed at this race and is sure to give a good account. It's an incredibly open race though, but I'm going to take two against the field. I like the chances of Theatre Guide. He ran a great race in the BetBright chase, before falling at the festival, but is hardy sort and will be suited by this distance. He's had a great season, the Tizzard yard is still flying and Paddy Brennan has enjoyed some great days as well. The other one is a bit of an ambitious effort, but I think Oscar Rock can go well. He's a big price and does have his stamina to prove over this trip, but Malcolm Jefferson has his yard in good form and this is his only runner on the card. At 33/1, I'm happy to stick a quid each way on and see how he goes.
The listed hurdle is all about Mullins again. Vroum Vroum Mag is a very classy mare and is still unbeaten for her trainer. She's a short price, but on the back of her impressive Cheltenham win, I think that's justified. She takes on the boys for the first time, but this is probably her optimum trip and I wouldn't be surprised if she dealt with these. Ptit Zig is one of three Nicholls runners and makes appeal on his second in the Cleeve Hurdle behind the rampant Thistlecrack. That effort came after losing his way a bit over fences, but he hasn't won a hurldes race in a long while and that would be a concern. Vaniteux looked set for second in the Arkle before falling, but he's charting new territory over this distance and I think he is better of over a shorter trip.
Nicholls seems to hold all the cards in the Novice chase, with the top two in the betting, Calipto and Some Buckle. Of the two, the latter would have my preference after his good win last time out and would probably be my selection to claw some cash back for Nicholls. Don't rule out C&D winner Antony at a big price though. Gary Moore's charge was an impressive winner back in November and returns here having had a pipe opener at Kempton.
Finally the crap shoot of a Handicap Hurdle with twenty runners to sort out. Three for Mullins and four for Nicholls and all seven could well contest the finish. Mullins best hope could well lie with handicap debutant Bellow Mome. He is seeking a hattrick under Paul Townend and could have anything in hand on his debut in this sort of race. Red Hanrahan is probably Nicholls best bet, as I don't rate Qualando. But if I'm picking a couple against the field, I'm once again putting my faith in Paddy & Colin. Royal Vacation is also chasing a hattrick with his defeats this season coming against the likes of Yanworth & Champers On Ice. He seems fairly weighted to compete and I'd like to see the connections finish their season with another race win. At a price though, I can't rule out Mad Jack Mytton. I've been putting him up in handicap hurdles all season and I'm going to give him one more poke. He has the ability and his finishes of 00U don't tell the full story of his runs. He;s caught the eye on occasions and Jonjo O'Neill is coming right at this time of year. Richard Johnson has been booked and it would be great for the champ to end with a winner.
2.20 Wolf of Windlesham 11/1
2.55 Valseur Lido 5/6
3.35 Un de Sceaux 6/4
4.10 Theatre Guide 16/1, Oscar Rock 33/1
4.45 Vroum Vroum Mag 8/11
5.20 Some Buckle 11/2
5.55 Royal Vacation 14/1, Mad Jack Mytton 20/1
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