Why the Racing Post got it wrong
by @Redgameracer
"Why racing must ban the whip" read the headline. And the outcry was immediate and powerful from those within the sport. Jockey's, trainers and fans alike set onto the Post with gusto to condemn the headline. The article itself is actually pretty good. It's an opinion piece, well-written, and it challenges racing to think ahead. You don't have to agree with the opinion, but it doesn't read like an anti-racing piece.
The problem lies with the inflammatory headline. It doesn't even really cover the article's premise. Instead it just adds fuel to fire of people who think racing is cruel and it the process it shoots itself in the foot. Racing people are turned away by the sensationalist headline, while the uninformed see their opinion validated. After all, if even the trade-paper thinks that racing is cruel and the whip should be banned, it must be true!
Racing is not cruel. Jockeys and trainers and stable staff I've interacted with are real animal lovers. They form such a tight connection with their horses that it's impossible for them to be cruel to these animals. Look at the tears shed by Nicky Henderson when announcing Sprinter Sacre's retirement. That's not fake, that's real. Leighton Aspell spoke of his devastation after Many Clouds passed away. Connections do what is best by their horse. They are supremely well treated and cared for and they enjoy what they do. They are most certainly not being mistreated.
Tom Kerr says in his piece that it's almost impossible to change the perception that racing is cruel and that the whip is cruel. I refute that. It's less than 100 years ago that the perception was that women were second rate citizens not worthy of a vote. Just over fifty years since the US ended segregation because black people were perceived unworthy. Those views were strongly and widely held. But a small minority managed to open people's eyes to the reality and things changed. Perceptions change. Why shouldn't racing be able to do the same?
If it's my perception that a building is red when, in fact, it is blue, the answer is not to paint the building red...
Friday 7 July 2017
Friday 17 March 2017
Cheltenham Preview - Day Four
Cheltenham Friday - Gold Cup Day
By @redgameracer
The final day of the four day extravaganza features the big one, the Gold Cup. It's a gruelling race and one of the toughest races in the calendar. But before that, there's a few cracking races to go through first.
Triumph Juvenile Hurdle
Once again a very solid favourite in the McManus colours. Defi du Seuil (9/4) has gone off favourite on all his five starts and duly obliged, including twice here. He's been teak tough in all his races, but most of those have come in ground with a bit of cut and he's unlikely to encounter that here. While he is the one that has gone and done it, he is also too short for me with the ground concerns. Charli Parcs (4/1) has been good in his sole completed starts and looked to be going close at Kempton when he came down. It's never ideal to come in on the back of a fall though, so you have to wonder how he will go ont he back off that.
Bapaume (14/1) will have Ruby Walsh on board and after his four-timer on Thursday, he'll probably be popular, but I reckon he'll struggle to turn the form around with the horse that beat him last time. Mega Fortune (10/1) was switched to first time cheekpieces last time out and he readily dispatched his rival by three and a half lengths. Juveniles are always tricky to judge so the form could well be turned around again, but the cheek pieces readily brought out improvement for Gordon Elliot's charge and the way his week is going, he could have another one going close. As for a selections though, I'm going to take a punt at the massive price available for Evening Hush (50/1). Evan Williams' charge has finished second behind Master Blueeyes (15/2) and Defi Du Seuil, well beaten on both occasions, but she gets a lovely filly's allowance and she could be set to hit the frame at a massive price. She'll go on the ground and was a runaway winner at Aintree in a Listed juvenile race. Obviously she has something to find, but we saw last year that these juveniles can completely turn the form around.
Selection: Evening Hush 50/1 E/W (Various)
County Handicap Hurdle
As competitive a handicap as they come, the County Hurdle is an incredible tricky race to work out. There's the obvious ones, like Ivanovich Gorbatov (12/1), who won here last year on the same day in the Triumph. He's been missing out in Grade Ones this year, but drops back into a handicap in colours that have long been associated with this sort of plot job. Equally, last years Fred Winter winner, Diego Du Charmil (18/1), scooted up in a handicap in Musselburgh and should have a fair chance. Arctic Fire (25/1) has top weight, but he is a Grade One horse in a handicap. Rated 169 at his peak, he comes here off 158 after over a year off and it remains to be seen if he still has all that ability. He was second in this race in 2014 and followed that up by finished second to Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle a year later. Top weights have a poor record, but he is worth a penny or two each way at his price.
But it's the less obvious ones that we're interested in and I think I've got two that could go well at a big price. First up, Song Light (25/1) for Seamus Mullins and Kevin Jones. He comes in on a lovely mark of 135, giving him a weight of 10-03 and the jockey claims 5 lbs. He's got decent course form, having finished third in a novice hurdle here in 2015 and also third in the Greatwood Hurdle behind North Hill Harvey (8/1) earlier this season. He followed that up in February with a fourth in the Betfair, not beaten far behind Ballyandy and he has a big race in him at a big price.
The other one of interest is a McManus second string in De Name Escapes Me (25/1). He won two novice races last season, but was well beaten in a handicap at the Punchestown Festival last year. He was off the track again for a long time, before reappearing in the Betfair Hurdle and given a considerate ride by Aiden Coleman. He's still very unexposed and he gets the assistance of Jonathan Moore in the saddle, claiming three. He seems to be laid out for something and it could well be this race. At the prices, he's certainly worth an e/w punt.
Selections: Song Light 25/1 E/W (various) & De Name Escapes Me 25/1 E/W (various)
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
Another red hot favourite from Ireland. Gordon Elliot has been nothing short of effusive in his praise for Death Duty (2/1) and it's easy to see why. He is as yet unbeaten over hurdles, albeit all those runs have been over two mile four. But he looks a strong stayer, who will only get better with time. Come the day, 5/2 could well be a massive price, but I'm not going to put him up at that short a price. Wholestone (15/2) is in next for Nigel Twiston-Davies. He's won three times at the track, including twice over C&D, and he was second on his other appearance here, denied only a length on that occasion. I don't think he's good enough to beat the fav, but he should go close. Augusta Kate (7/1) was running a good race when falling at the last against Death Duty last time, but I don't think she would've won. She does get the mares allowance again and that could be enough to see her run a big race.
Looking at some value in the race, The Worlds End (10/1) is one that would interest me. He was beaten nine lengths on debut over hurdles behind Gayebury, who has since run with credit in defeat before hacking up in a Pertemps Qualifier at Chepstow. The Worlds End has racked up a three timer since then, twice at Chepstow, where he won by eleven lengths over two subsequent winners and then a three length victory over another subsequent winner. The finished off his run by beating No Hassle Hoff nine lengths at Haydock and the only horse from that race to have run again won as well. As you can see the form stacks up and at 10/1 he's a fair price to run a big race.
Selection: The Worlds End 10/1 E/W (Bet365)
Gold Cup Chase
The big one and in a field that is lacking some of the big names, through injury or otherwise, but still a very competitive race. I've got a few favourites running here and it's going to be hard to pick one out.
After a fantastic Thursday, Ruby Walsh' ride Djakadam (10/3) has been punted into favouritism for this one. He's got the form in the book, having finished second in this race in both previous runnings and he's had a clear preparation this year. He was beaten in the Lexus, but perhaps didn't get the best of rides that day. It would be nice for him to finally lose his place as the bridesmaid and be the bride, but he's too short for me.
Next in is Native River (9/2), who's been on the drift after Tizzard has had a poor festival so far. He's done nothing wrong this season and is a typical dour stayer who will gallop all day long. He's won a Hennessy and a Welsh National this season and was a good second to Minella Rocco (20/1) in the National Hunt Chase last year. I'm not sure if he has the extra bit of class needed to win a Gold Cup though. That four miler form has worked out really well this season and Minella Rocco looked to be running a very big race behind Many Clouds at Aintree when he fell at the last. He made a mistake in the Irish Gold cup which saw him part company with Aiden Coleman and it's hard to say how he would've run there. Tizzard's other runner Cue Card (5/1) does have the class and ability to win a Gold Cup and he can't have run to form in the King George when he was beaten by just over three lengths by Thistlecrack. Before that he, he absolutely hacked up at Haydock in the Betfair Chase and he's since hacked up again in the Ascot Chase over slightly shorter. If he can run to that form, or even last years form when he fell three out in this race, he will go very close. If he wins, it'll absolutely bring the house down, like Sprinter did last year.
I couldn't have More of That (14/1), having bled previously or Sizing John (8/1) who has his stamina to prove over this trip, but one I do like at a price that is far too big is Bristol De Mai (33/1). Nigel Twiston-Davies hasn't been in great form of late and his charge disappointed behind Native River last time out, but had a valid excuse as he returned lame. He absolutely bolted up at Haydock the time before that and he was second at the course in the JLT last year. He's a good jumper, especially if he's allowed to stride on and not tucked away too much. His run last time out was too bad to be true and I think he's got more to come. This price of 33/1 is too big to ignore.
Selections: Cue Card 5/1 E/W (various) & Bristol De Mai 33/1 E/W (Betfair)
Foxhunters Chase
This is a race I have very little interest in, but if you want a token selection then Pascha Du Polder (22/1) seems a big price, having run an eye catching race last year and he won a hunter chase under this same jockey at Bangor last time out.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
Another very tricky race, but I'm struggling to see past Willie Mullins first string in Battleford (8/1). He was beaten a nose by Ballyandy in last years champion bumper and again beaten into second at Aintree, but the form of that has worked out alright. He's struggled this season, only winning once and at short odds at that, but Mullins always sends a good one to this race and he has won it with the likes of Don Poli, Killultagh Vic and Sir Des Champs. His jockey claims five, which could be a big help and he's definitely one for the shortlist.
At a bigger price, Ballyhill (66/1) could outrun his odds. He was well beaten in the Betfair Hurdle, but was possibly sacrificed in that race to make the running for his stablemate and eventual winner Ballyandy. He's been keeping very good company after winning two novice hurdles and this does represent a bit of a class drop for him. Don't get me wrong, it'll still be very competitive, but he should appreciate the ground and he's better than a 66/1 shot. I'm a big fan of his jockey Jamie Bargary and I think he's got a decent chance of hitting the frame (a few bookies are paying five places on this)
Selections: Battleford 8/1 E/W (various) & Ballyhill 66/1 E/W (SportingBet)
Grand Annual Handicap Chase
The grand finale of the Cheltenham festival is the Grand Annual Handicap Chase and the one I like here is The Game Changer (14/1). He was fourth in the Arkle last year behind Douvan and then followed that one home at Aintree and Punchestown. He's not been in great form this year, but if the better ground can eke out some improvement, he's got a decent chance of running a big race.
There's a few decent horses running in this, including Eastlake (33/1), who sprang a big priced surprise in December over this trip, former Champion Chase winner Dodging Bullets (14/1) and the ones that look to have been laid out for this race like Dandridge (9/1) and Le Prezien (7/1). Of those, I think Dodging Bullets is the most interesting one, with Noel Fehily on board, but I'll go for another one from left field in Croco Bay (33/1). He reappered behind Gardefort (33/1) at Wincanton after a break and didn't run a bad race. I think he'll have come on from that though and he's got pretty solid form having finished third in this two years ago. He fell around half-way last year, but if his jumping holds together, he'll have a chance to make the frame again.
Selections: The Game Changer 14/1 E/W (Various) & Croco Bay 33/1 E/W (Various)
By @redgameracer
The final day of the four day extravaganza features the big one, the Gold Cup. It's a gruelling race and one of the toughest races in the calendar. But before that, there's a few cracking races to go through first.
Triumph Juvenile Hurdle
Once again a very solid favourite in the McManus colours. Defi du Seuil (9/4) has gone off favourite on all his five starts and duly obliged, including twice here. He's been teak tough in all his races, but most of those have come in ground with a bit of cut and he's unlikely to encounter that here. While he is the one that has gone and done it, he is also too short for me with the ground concerns. Charli Parcs (4/1) has been good in his sole completed starts and looked to be going close at Kempton when he came down. It's never ideal to come in on the back of a fall though, so you have to wonder how he will go ont he back off that.
Bapaume (14/1) will have Ruby Walsh on board and after his four-timer on Thursday, he'll probably be popular, but I reckon he'll struggle to turn the form around with the horse that beat him last time. Mega Fortune (10/1) was switched to first time cheekpieces last time out and he readily dispatched his rival by three and a half lengths. Juveniles are always tricky to judge so the form could well be turned around again, but the cheek pieces readily brought out improvement for Gordon Elliot's charge and the way his week is going, he could have another one going close. As for a selections though, I'm going to take a punt at the massive price available for Evening Hush (50/1). Evan Williams' charge has finished second behind Master Blueeyes (15/2) and Defi Du Seuil, well beaten on both occasions, but she gets a lovely filly's allowance and she could be set to hit the frame at a massive price. She'll go on the ground and was a runaway winner at Aintree in a Listed juvenile race. Obviously she has something to find, but we saw last year that these juveniles can completely turn the form around.
Selection: Evening Hush 50/1 E/W (Various)
County Handicap Hurdle
As competitive a handicap as they come, the County Hurdle is an incredible tricky race to work out. There's the obvious ones, like Ivanovich Gorbatov (12/1), who won here last year on the same day in the Triumph. He's been missing out in Grade Ones this year, but drops back into a handicap in colours that have long been associated with this sort of plot job. Equally, last years Fred Winter winner, Diego Du Charmil (18/1), scooted up in a handicap in Musselburgh and should have a fair chance. Arctic Fire (25/1) has top weight, but he is a Grade One horse in a handicap. Rated 169 at his peak, he comes here off 158 after over a year off and it remains to be seen if he still has all that ability. He was second in this race in 2014 and followed that up by finished second to Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle a year later. Top weights have a poor record, but he is worth a penny or two each way at his price.
But it's the less obvious ones that we're interested in and I think I've got two that could go well at a big price. First up, Song Light (25/1) for Seamus Mullins and Kevin Jones. He comes in on a lovely mark of 135, giving him a weight of 10-03 and the jockey claims 5 lbs. He's got decent course form, having finished third in a novice hurdle here in 2015 and also third in the Greatwood Hurdle behind North Hill Harvey (8/1) earlier this season. He followed that up in February with a fourth in the Betfair, not beaten far behind Ballyandy and he has a big race in him at a big price.
The other one of interest is a McManus second string in De Name Escapes Me (25/1). He won two novice races last season, but was well beaten in a handicap at the Punchestown Festival last year. He was off the track again for a long time, before reappearing in the Betfair Hurdle and given a considerate ride by Aiden Coleman. He's still very unexposed and he gets the assistance of Jonathan Moore in the saddle, claiming three. He seems to be laid out for something and it could well be this race. At the prices, he's certainly worth an e/w punt.
Selections: Song Light 25/1 E/W (various) & De Name Escapes Me 25/1 E/W (various)
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
Another red hot favourite from Ireland. Gordon Elliot has been nothing short of effusive in his praise for Death Duty (2/1) and it's easy to see why. He is as yet unbeaten over hurdles, albeit all those runs have been over two mile four. But he looks a strong stayer, who will only get better with time. Come the day, 5/2 could well be a massive price, but I'm not going to put him up at that short a price. Wholestone (15/2) is in next for Nigel Twiston-Davies. He's won three times at the track, including twice over C&D, and he was second on his other appearance here, denied only a length on that occasion. I don't think he's good enough to beat the fav, but he should go close. Augusta Kate (7/1) was running a good race when falling at the last against Death Duty last time, but I don't think she would've won. She does get the mares allowance again and that could be enough to see her run a big race.
Looking at some value in the race, The Worlds End (10/1) is one that would interest me. He was beaten nine lengths on debut over hurdles behind Gayebury, who has since run with credit in defeat before hacking up in a Pertemps Qualifier at Chepstow. The Worlds End has racked up a three timer since then, twice at Chepstow, where he won by eleven lengths over two subsequent winners and then a three length victory over another subsequent winner. The finished off his run by beating No Hassle Hoff nine lengths at Haydock and the only horse from that race to have run again won as well. As you can see the form stacks up and at 10/1 he's a fair price to run a big race.
Selection: The Worlds End 10/1 E/W (Bet365)
Gold Cup Chase
The big one and in a field that is lacking some of the big names, through injury or otherwise, but still a very competitive race. I've got a few favourites running here and it's going to be hard to pick one out.
After a fantastic Thursday, Ruby Walsh' ride Djakadam (10/3) has been punted into favouritism for this one. He's got the form in the book, having finished second in this race in both previous runnings and he's had a clear preparation this year. He was beaten in the Lexus, but perhaps didn't get the best of rides that day. It would be nice for him to finally lose his place as the bridesmaid and be the bride, but he's too short for me.
Next in is Native River (9/2), who's been on the drift after Tizzard has had a poor festival so far. He's done nothing wrong this season and is a typical dour stayer who will gallop all day long. He's won a Hennessy and a Welsh National this season and was a good second to Minella Rocco (20/1) in the National Hunt Chase last year. I'm not sure if he has the extra bit of class needed to win a Gold Cup though. That four miler form has worked out really well this season and Minella Rocco looked to be running a very big race behind Many Clouds at Aintree when he fell at the last. He made a mistake in the Irish Gold cup which saw him part company with Aiden Coleman and it's hard to say how he would've run there. Tizzard's other runner Cue Card (5/1) does have the class and ability to win a Gold Cup and he can't have run to form in the King George when he was beaten by just over three lengths by Thistlecrack. Before that he, he absolutely hacked up at Haydock in the Betfair Chase and he's since hacked up again in the Ascot Chase over slightly shorter. If he can run to that form, or even last years form when he fell three out in this race, he will go very close. If he wins, it'll absolutely bring the house down, like Sprinter did last year.
I couldn't have More of That (14/1), having bled previously or Sizing John (8/1) who has his stamina to prove over this trip, but one I do like at a price that is far too big is Bristol De Mai (33/1). Nigel Twiston-Davies hasn't been in great form of late and his charge disappointed behind Native River last time out, but had a valid excuse as he returned lame. He absolutely bolted up at Haydock the time before that and he was second at the course in the JLT last year. He's a good jumper, especially if he's allowed to stride on and not tucked away too much. His run last time out was too bad to be true and I think he's got more to come. This price of 33/1 is too big to ignore.
Selections: Cue Card 5/1 E/W (various) & Bristol De Mai 33/1 E/W (Betfair)
Foxhunters Chase
This is a race I have very little interest in, but if you want a token selection then Pascha Du Polder (22/1) seems a big price, having run an eye catching race last year and he won a hunter chase under this same jockey at Bangor last time out.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
Another very tricky race, but I'm struggling to see past Willie Mullins first string in Battleford (8/1). He was beaten a nose by Ballyandy in last years champion bumper and again beaten into second at Aintree, but the form of that has worked out alright. He's struggled this season, only winning once and at short odds at that, but Mullins always sends a good one to this race and he has won it with the likes of Don Poli, Killultagh Vic and Sir Des Champs. His jockey claims five, which could be a big help and he's definitely one for the shortlist.
At a bigger price, Ballyhill (66/1) could outrun his odds. He was well beaten in the Betfair Hurdle, but was possibly sacrificed in that race to make the running for his stablemate and eventual winner Ballyandy. He's been keeping very good company after winning two novice hurdles and this does represent a bit of a class drop for him. Don't get me wrong, it'll still be very competitive, but he should appreciate the ground and he's better than a 66/1 shot. I'm a big fan of his jockey Jamie Bargary and I think he's got a decent chance of hitting the frame (a few bookies are paying five places on this)
Selections: Battleford 8/1 E/W (various) & Ballyhill 66/1 E/W (SportingBet)
Grand Annual Handicap Chase
The grand finale of the Cheltenham festival is the Grand Annual Handicap Chase and the one I like here is The Game Changer (14/1). He was fourth in the Arkle last year behind Douvan and then followed that one home at Aintree and Punchestown. He's not been in great form this year, but if the better ground can eke out some improvement, he's got a decent chance of running a big race.
There's a few decent horses running in this, including Eastlake (33/1), who sprang a big priced surprise in December over this trip, former Champion Chase winner Dodging Bullets (14/1) and the ones that look to have been laid out for this race like Dandridge (9/1) and Le Prezien (7/1). Of those, I think Dodging Bullets is the most interesting one, with Noel Fehily on board, but I'll go for another one from left field in Croco Bay (33/1). He reappered behind Gardefort (33/1) at Wincanton after a break and didn't run a bad race. I think he'll have come on from that though and he's got pretty solid form having finished third in this two years ago. He fell around half-way last year, but if his jumping holds together, he'll have a chance to make the frame again.
Selections: The Game Changer 14/1 E/W (Various) & Croco Bay 33/1 E/W (Various)
Wednesday 15 March 2017
Cheltenham Preview - Day Three
Cheltenham Thursday - St Patricks Day
By @redgameracer
By @redgameracer
Thursday has some great racing for us in store, but we don't have the super stars like Vautour and Thistlecrack to keep us warm on St. Paddy's day. That said, if we can find some winners, we'll be just grand, so let's dive straight in.
JLT Novices Chase
The day starts with the JLT Novices chase and Yorkhill (11/8) is a very solid favourite. He was an impressive winner of the Neptune last year and you feel that he could've gone close in either the Champion Hurdle or the Arkle, but connections have high hopes for this one following in Vautour's footsteps as a Gold Cup horse. Like Vautour in 2015, he comes her under a bit of a cloud concerning his jumping and I think the same thing will happen. He will annihilate the competition. He schooled awkwardly over the first few last weekend, but once they started going at a pace, he was pinpoint perfect. His only potential flaw is that he is very headstrong, but if Ruby can get him settled (and no better man to do it) then he'll romp away with this. Don't get me wrong, the opposition isn't bad, but they're not in the same league. Top Notch (4/1) is a very good jumper and has shown time and time again that he's not to be underestimated, but I don't think he's got that extra bit of Gold Standard that Yorkhill has. Disko (7/1) and Politologue (7/1) are also very good horses and if it wasn't for Yorkhill, I think those three would be fighting it out.
I don't think we'll get a very big field in this race and that could well be a concern for the keen Yorkhill. He'll probably want to be covered up a bit and if there's only a limited amount of runners, he could well throw the race away by pulling himself to the front. If that does happen, I think Disko will be the one to pick up the pieces. He was impressive last time out beating Our Duke, turning the form around from when they met over three miles and was happy sit in behind and pick off his opponent.
Selection: Yorkhill 11/8 (Various) or Disko 7/1 E/W if you want to take the fav on.
Pertemps Handicap Hurdle
Always a tricky race to decipher, the Pertemps final over three miles is unique in that you must finish in the top six in a qualifier to get into the race. But it's not always the winners of the qualifiers who run away with the prize in the final. Market leader is Tobefair (8/1) who, to be fair, has done absolutely nothing wrong so far. He has won seven on the bounce since joining Debra Hamer going up an incredible 53 lbs in the ratings. But he may have reached his top and I couldn't recommend him at the price. Presenting Percy (10/1) has been targeted at the race by last years winning connections (with Mall Dini), but he's been raised a fair bit for his last win and he might struggle of his higher mark.
The one that interests me at a big price is Clondaw Cian (33/1). He technically needs one to come out, but with Caid Du Berlais having ran on Tuesday, he should get in. He won at Cheltenham over 2m5 at the November meeting, staying on well and coming home 3 and a half lengths in front. He was subsequently well beaten at Warwick behind Tobefair despite being sent off favourite, but he was given a pretty considerate ride that day. He improved under an equally cautious ride at Exeter behind Impulsive Star (10/1) to finish fifth, but has now been dropped one lbs. He goes here off a nice racing weight, has course form, albeit not over quite this far, but he has won a point over three miles. The only concern is the potentially quicker ground, since he generally prefers it softer, but if he copes with it, the 28/1 could be a fair price.
Selection: Clondaw Cian 33/1 E/W (Various)
Ryanair Chase
The race which Vautour won so brilliant last year has another Willie Mullins hot pot as favourite. Un De Sceaux (3/1) was second in last years Queen Mother Champion Chase, having already won an Arkle, but he steps up to two mile five here. The trip, in combination with the ground is a concern, but he's settling better now he's grown up a bit. He's not as much of a mad bastard anymore and he should be able to see out the trip now. 9/4 is not available everywhere, but that does represent some value and I think he'll go off a fair bit shorter on the day.
Main market rivals are Uxizandre (9/2) and Empire of Dirt (11/4). The former was impressive when he finished second to Un De Sceaux here in the rearranged Clarence House Chase, but that was after a long break of 688 days and you'd have to worry about the bounce factor for him. He won this race two years ago, so he does have the ability and quality, but at the prices and taking the bounce risk into account, I'd rather leave him alone. Empire of Dirt won the Brown Plate last year, but he had a nice racing weight that time and the form of that race hasn't worked out that well. He seems to have improved a fair bit this year, but both his runs have come over three miles and he might find this on the sharp side. The others can be readily discounted, Vaniteux (25/1) will find this trip too far, Josses Hill (9/1) can't jump well enough, especially around this track and Alary (33/1) is just not good enough. If the rain came, you could do worse than backing Aso (66/1), but that seems unlikely.
Selection: Un De Sceaux 3/1 (Various)
Stayers Hurdle
The scene of Thistlecrack's brilliant victory last year, the stayers hurdle has another solid favourite in Unowhatimeanharry (6/4). He has put everything to the sword since winning the Albert Bartlett last year and is the right favourite. There is no Barry Geraghty on board this time, but Noel Fehily is a more than able replacement and he still rates the one to beat. Next in the market, in the same colours, is Jezki (8/1). The former Champion Hurdler had been off the track for a good while before comfortably winning on reappearance at Navan. He was beaten at Gowran by Tombstone following that, but I think the ground, rather than any bounce factor was the key in that. He has won over three miles before at the Punchestown festival. Good ground will see the best out of him and I think 8/1 is a fair price. 2015 winner Cole Harden (9/1) has been running pretty well, but he's always found won too good since his victory two years ago and after a failed chasing experiment has gone back over hurdles. I'm not sure he's the force of old and I'd happily swerve him.
Both of Mullins' runners in the Wylie colours are interesting. Shaneshill (12/1) is yet to win at the festival, but always runs his race. He's sure to stay the three mile trip and is probably a very good bet in the place only market, since he's always bang there, but never quite good enough to win in this sort of class. Nichols Canyon (12/1) is a horse who never gets the credit he deserves. He has won seven grade ones, including being the only horse to have beaten Faugheen, yet he gets crabbed wherever he goes. He is the pick of Ruby Walsh, which is a tip in itself, but I'd be concerned about him staying the three mile trip. I think shorter suits him better.
At the prices, I'd be tempted to give Ballyoptic (16/1) another go. He's had plenty of trouble staying on his feet, but I think he would've gone really close at Ascot when he came down at the last. I don't think he'll be too bothered by the drying ground, having won on good ground at Chepstow at the start of the season in a Grade three and if he stays on his feet, he'll go close
Selection Ballyoptic 16/1 E/W (Betfair)
Festival Plate Handicap Chase
Another competitive handicap next up and I really like Starchitect (8/1). David Pipe's been having a decent week so far the Rooney's had a winner with Willoughby Court today. This one was fifth in the County Hurdle last year, but has won over this sort of trip over hurdles before. He's also notched a fourth in the Fred Winter the year before, so the festival form is as solid as you'll find in this race. The market hasn't missed him however and there's not much juice left in the 8/1 available.
So looking at a bigger price, Henryville (28/1) for Harry Fry with in form Noel Fehily on is a valid alternative. He was fourth in the Pertemps two years ago and ran a very good race in the Sefton Chase last time out at Aintree. He came from well back to grab a clear third, but couldn't reach the leaders. He's on a good mark and comes here fresh off a break. He's won fresh before and that fourth in the Pertemps also came off a break, so he's got a live chance here at 28/1
Selections: Starchitect 8/1 E/W (Betway & Black Type) & Henryville 28/1 E/W (Bet365)
Mares Novices Hurdle
The race won by Limini last year in it's inaugural running hasn't got much of a history to go on, but we've seen that Willie Mullins has some very good novice mares this season. The likes of Let's Dance (15/8) and Airlie Beach (4/1) are easily good enough to take on the boys, but the lure of a big stable staff bonus for the former has seen her come here. I'm not sure if two miles is her optimum trip, indeed she seems to have improved for further, but she is very good and could easily be too good for the others. Her stable mate has stronger form over this trip and could well be the value at the current prices. The question is how much faith do you want to put in these with Mullins current form?
At bigger prices Forge Meadow (10/1), La Bague Au Roi (10/1), Barra (20/1) and Asthuria (14/1) are all really good mares. The former has also beaten the boys already, claiming a Grade two at Naas by eight lengths. She is certainly a value alternative to the top two in the market and 10/1 is probably too big. The latter is a very good horse, but has fallen twice now and it's hard to back her on the back of that. She has been bang in contention both times with Shattered Love (who was well fancied in the Neptune) and on that form line, 14/1 is probably a touch big, but she'd have to have improved massively in the jumping department.
At the end of the day, I do think the 15/8 about Let's Dance is too big. I think the stable staff bonus means they've gone for the weakest race when she could've easily ran in the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett and been amongst the places. She does have to give weight away to Asthuria, who I'd fancy from an E/W perspective if she's sorted her jumping out.
Selections: Let's Dance 15/8 (BlackType), or Asthuria E/W 14/1 (various)
Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Another one for the amateurs, so keep an eye on those jockey bookings and look for the Codd's and O'Connors of this world. Codd rides Squoateur (11/2), who is the favourite and he could well be on a handy mark. The extended three mile trip could well be an issue though. His best runs have been over two miles and two mile four and his only three mile effort was to finish a keeping on sixth at Aintree. He's too short for me though. Next in is Mall Dini (7/1), who won the Pertemps last year. He's been hit with a meaty rise by the handicapper and connections have let their displeasure be known about his English mark.
The one that I fancy here is the top weight, Pendra (16/1). He's been off since last years Grand National, but he has gone well fresh in the past, winning three out of four times after a break of over two hundred days. He's finished third in the Close Brothers Novices Chase before and fifth in the Ultima Chase, so he goes well enough around here and top weights don't have a bad record in this race. If he's fully tuned up for this, he could have a great chance of hitting the frame at a tasty price.
Selection: Pendra 16/1 E/W (PaddyPower/Betfair)
JLT Novices Chase
The day starts with the JLT Novices chase and Yorkhill (11/8) is a very solid favourite. He was an impressive winner of the Neptune last year and you feel that he could've gone close in either the Champion Hurdle or the Arkle, but connections have high hopes for this one following in Vautour's footsteps as a Gold Cup horse. Like Vautour in 2015, he comes her under a bit of a cloud concerning his jumping and I think the same thing will happen. He will annihilate the competition. He schooled awkwardly over the first few last weekend, but once they started going at a pace, he was pinpoint perfect. His only potential flaw is that he is very headstrong, but if Ruby can get him settled (and no better man to do it) then he'll romp away with this. Don't get me wrong, the opposition isn't bad, but they're not in the same league. Top Notch (4/1) is a very good jumper and has shown time and time again that he's not to be underestimated, but I don't think he's got that extra bit of Gold Standard that Yorkhill has. Disko (7/1) and Politologue (7/1) are also very good horses and if it wasn't for Yorkhill, I think those three would be fighting it out.
I don't think we'll get a very big field in this race and that could well be a concern for the keen Yorkhill. He'll probably want to be covered up a bit and if there's only a limited amount of runners, he could well throw the race away by pulling himself to the front. If that does happen, I think Disko will be the one to pick up the pieces. He was impressive last time out beating Our Duke, turning the form around from when they met over three miles and was happy sit in behind and pick off his opponent.
Selection: Yorkhill 11/8 (Various) or Disko 7/1 E/W if you want to take the fav on.
Pertemps Handicap Hurdle
Always a tricky race to decipher, the Pertemps final over three miles is unique in that you must finish in the top six in a qualifier to get into the race. But it's not always the winners of the qualifiers who run away with the prize in the final. Market leader is Tobefair (8/1) who, to be fair, has done absolutely nothing wrong so far. He has won seven on the bounce since joining Debra Hamer going up an incredible 53 lbs in the ratings. But he may have reached his top and I couldn't recommend him at the price. Presenting Percy (10/1) has been targeted at the race by last years winning connections (with Mall Dini), but he's been raised a fair bit for his last win and he might struggle of his higher mark.
The one that interests me at a big price is Clondaw Cian (33/1). He technically needs one to come out, but with Caid Du Berlais having ran on Tuesday, he should get in. He won at Cheltenham over 2m5 at the November meeting, staying on well and coming home 3 and a half lengths in front. He was subsequently well beaten at Warwick behind Tobefair despite being sent off favourite, but he was given a pretty considerate ride that day. He improved under an equally cautious ride at Exeter behind Impulsive Star (10/1) to finish fifth, but has now been dropped one lbs. He goes here off a nice racing weight, has course form, albeit not over quite this far, but he has won a point over three miles. The only concern is the potentially quicker ground, since he generally prefers it softer, but if he copes with it, the 28/1 could be a fair price.
Selection: Clondaw Cian 33/1 E/W (Various)
Ryanair Chase
The race which Vautour won so brilliant last year has another Willie Mullins hot pot as favourite. Un De Sceaux (3/1) was second in last years Queen Mother Champion Chase, having already won an Arkle, but he steps up to two mile five here. The trip, in combination with the ground is a concern, but he's settling better now he's grown up a bit. He's not as much of a mad bastard anymore and he should be able to see out the trip now. 9/4 is not available everywhere, but that does represent some value and I think he'll go off a fair bit shorter on the day.
Main market rivals are Uxizandre (9/2) and Empire of Dirt (11/4). The former was impressive when he finished second to Un De Sceaux here in the rearranged Clarence House Chase, but that was after a long break of 688 days and you'd have to worry about the bounce factor for him. He won this race two years ago, so he does have the ability and quality, but at the prices and taking the bounce risk into account, I'd rather leave him alone. Empire of Dirt won the Brown Plate last year, but he had a nice racing weight that time and the form of that race hasn't worked out that well. He seems to have improved a fair bit this year, but both his runs have come over three miles and he might find this on the sharp side. The others can be readily discounted, Vaniteux (25/1) will find this trip too far, Josses Hill (9/1) can't jump well enough, especially around this track and Alary (33/1) is just not good enough. If the rain came, you could do worse than backing Aso (66/1), but that seems unlikely.
Selection: Un De Sceaux 3/1 (Various)
Stayers Hurdle
The scene of Thistlecrack's brilliant victory last year, the stayers hurdle has another solid favourite in Unowhatimeanharry (6/4). He has put everything to the sword since winning the Albert Bartlett last year and is the right favourite. There is no Barry Geraghty on board this time, but Noel Fehily is a more than able replacement and he still rates the one to beat. Next in the market, in the same colours, is Jezki (8/1). The former Champion Hurdler had been off the track for a good while before comfortably winning on reappearance at Navan. He was beaten at Gowran by Tombstone following that, but I think the ground, rather than any bounce factor was the key in that. He has won over three miles before at the Punchestown festival. Good ground will see the best out of him and I think 8/1 is a fair price. 2015 winner Cole Harden (9/1) has been running pretty well, but he's always found won too good since his victory two years ago and after a failed chasing experiment has gone back over hurdles. I'm not sure he's the force of old and I'd happily swerve him.
Both of Mullins' runners in the Wylie colours are interesting. Shaneshill (12/1) is yet to win at the festival, but always runs his race. He's sure to stay the three mile trip and is probably a very good bet in the place only market, since he's always bang there, but never quite good enough to win in this sort of class. Nichols Canyon (12/1) is a horse who never gets the credit he deserves. He has won seven grade ones, including being the only horse to have beaten Faugheen, yet he gets crabbed wherever he goes. He is the pick of Ruby Walsh, which is a tip in itself, but I'd be concerned about him staying the three mile trip. I think shorter suits him better.
At the prices, I'd be tempted to give Ballyoptic (16/1) another go. He's had plenty of trouble staying on his feet, but I think he would've gone really close at Ascot when he came down at the last. I don't think he'll be too bothered by the drying ground, having won on good ground at Chepstow at the start of the season in a Grade three and if he stays on his feet, he'll go close
Selection Ballyoptic 16/1 E/W (Betfair)
Festival Plate Handicap Chase
Another competitive handicap next up and I really like Starchitect (8/1). David Pipe's been having a decent week so far the Rooney's had a winner with Willoughby Court today. This one was fifth in the County Hurdle last year, but has won over this sort of trip over hurdles before. He's also notched a fourth in the Fred Winter the year before, so the festival form is as solid as you'll find in this race. The market hasn't missed him however and there's not much juice left in the 8/1 available.
So looking at a bigger price, Henryville (28/1) for Harry Fry with in form Noel Fehily on is a valid alternative. He was fourth in the Pertemps two years ago and ran a very good race in the Sefton Chase last time out at Aintree. He came from well back to grab a clear third, but couldn't reach the leaders. He's on a good mark and comes here fresh off a break. He's won fresh before and that fourth in the Pertemps also came off a break, so he's got a live chance here at 28/1
Selections: Starchitect 8/1 E/W (Betway & Black Type) & Henryville 28/1 E/W (Bet365)
Mares Novices Hurdle
The race won by Limini last year in it's inaugural running hasn't got much of a history to go on, but we've seen that Willie Mullins has some very good novice mares this season. The likes of Let's Dance (15/8) and Airlie Beach (4/1) are easily good enough to take on the boys, but the lure of a big stable staff bonus for the former has seen her come here. I'm not sure if two miles is her optimum trip, indeed she seems to have improved for further, but she is very good and could easily be too good for the others. Her stable mate has stronger form over this trip and could well be the value at the current prices. The question is how much faith do you want to put in these with Mullins current form?
At bigger prices Forge Meadow (10/1), La Bague Au Roi (10/1), Barra (20/1) and Asthuria (14/1) are all really good mares. The former has also beaten the boys already, claiming a Grade two at Naas by eight lengths. She is certainly a value alternative to the top two in the market and 10/1 is probably too big. The latter is a very good horse, but has fallen twice now and it's hard to back her on the back of that. She has been bang in contention both times with Shattered Love (who was well fancied in the Neptune) and on that form line, 14/1 is probably a touch big, but she'd have to have improved massively in the jumping department.
At the end of the day, I do think the 15/8 about Let's Dance is too big. I think the stable staff bonus means they've gone for the weakest race when she could've easily ran in the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett and been amongst the places. She does have to give weight away to Asthuria, who I'd fancy from an E/W perspective if she's sorted her jumping out.
Selections: Let's Dance 15/8 (BlackType), or Asthuria E/W 14/1 (various)
Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Another one for the amateurs, so keep an eye on those jockey bookings and look for the Codd's and O'Connors of this world. Codd rides Squoateur (11/2), who is the favourite and he could well be on a handy mark. The extended three mile trip could well be an issue though. His best runs have been over two miles and two mile four and his only three mile effort was to finish a keeping on sixth at Aintree. He's too short for me though. Next in is Mall Dini (7/1), who won the Pertemps last year. He's been hit with a meaty rise by the handicapper and connections have let their displeasure be known about his English mark.
The one that I fancy here is the top weight, Pendra (16/1). He's been off since last years Grand National, but he has gone well fresh in the past, winning three out of four times after a break of over two hundred days. He's finished third in the Close Brothers Novices Chase before and fifth in the Ultima Chase, so he goes well enough around here and top weights don't have a bad record in this race. If he's fully tuned up for this, he could have a great chance of hitting the frame at a tasty price.
Selection: Pendra 16/1 E/W (PaddyPower/Betfair)
Monday 13 March 2017
Cheltenham Preview - Day Two
Cheltenham Wednesday - Ladies Day
By @redgameracer
By @redgameracer
Last year, the Wednesday saw one of the biggest cheers in Cheltenham history when Sprinter Sacre returned victorious after claiming the Champion Chase. The Black Aeroplane has since been retired, robbing us of the chance to see him take on Douvan in this years Champion chase. But before we get there, there's plenty of interesting races to cast our eyes over
Neptune Novices' Hurdle
The Neptune Novices Hurdle over two mile five is an often misunderstood race. Although it's over a longer trip than the Supreme, it's often more of a speed test than the stamina test that is the Supreme. It's usually run at a slightly slower pace and turns into a bit of a sprint at the end. A turn of foot could well be crucial.
At the top of the market sits Neon Wolf (15/8), an even more solid favourite since Finian's Oscar was ruled out. He's been impressive in his starts so far and has the requisite turn of foot that suits the race. His trainer seems to think he'd be best suited by softish ground and it is true that his only run on good to soft has resulted in the smallest margin of victory, but he won with plenty in hand. Bacardys (3/1) is next in and he was impressive in winning the Deloitte. He quickened impressively, despite jumping slightly left on the run-in and should have a good chance. Lets Dance (7/1) and Death Duty (7/1) are contenders if they pitch up here, but they are more likely to go to other races.
I've had a small ante-post multiple containing Invitation Only (14/1) and Graham Wylie was very confident on him at the start of the season, but he hasn't shone since then and would need to have really been inspired in order to be involved here. If he is at his best, he'd have a very good chance of springing a surprise though. Willoughby Court (10/1) would have an excellent chance if he could replicate the form of his Warwick romp. He hacked up by eight lengths over Gayebury despite giving him four lbs. That horse has since bolted up in a Pertemps Qualifier by thirteen lengths and the fourth has also won. If one of the shorter priced ones fails to fire, then Ben Pauling's charge should have a good chance of picking up the pieces. If you want one at a big price, you might want to have a look at Wiliam Henry (20/1). He was a good second to Wholestone over C&D in January and could come on for that.
Selections: Willoughby Court 10/1 EW (Various)
RSA Novices' Chase
Next up is the RSA Chase, which can often be a gruelling race as shown last year when we sadly lost No More Heroes (and More Of That bled). Blaklion was a very game winner that day, grinding it out bravely up the hill and you need a tough cookie to win this race.
With that in mind, I'm going to strike off the first two in the market, Might Bite (4/1) and Alpha Des Obeaux (13/2). The former is by Scorpion, who has imparted some of his 'eccentricities' onto his offspring. He also has struggled at Cheltenham, having won a weak hurdle before being well beaten the next two times at the track. He has been impressive this season, with Premier Bond franking the form of his first win and he was well ahead at Kempton when he came down. But therein lies the problem. He doesn't jump entirely straightforward and in a festival race that can be a killer. At the prices, I'm happy to let him go. Alpha Des Obeaux is a very good horse, but he has bled twice this season and that is a huge concern. Mouse Morris is probably one of the best target trainers around, but I couldn't justify backing a horse in a tough race like this one with bleeding issues. That brings in Acapella Bourgeois (7/1), who is a likeable horse, but you can ask questions about the form of his last win, when he was granted a very easy lead. He will also need plenty of give in the ground, so unless the rain comes, it's unlikely that he'll be winning this in my opinion. I liked Bellshill (12/1) at the start of the season, but his jumping issues are evident and he's not shown up at his best at Cheltenham in the past. Punchestown would seem to be more his venue.
Plenty of the ones further down the market have entries elsewhere and are not guaranteed to run here, so that really leaves me with two. Royal Vacation (12/1) is the first of those. He was behind Might Bite at Kempton when that one came down, and would probably be flattered by that win, but he wasn't next time out at Cheltenham over the shorter trip. He's shown that he's no slouch, jumps well in the main and he has form at the track. Faster ground may be a concern, but that's something you'd be including when you get 16s. But he's not my selection. Instead, I'll go with Whisper (8/1) for Nicky Henderson. I know he's probably on the old side for this race, but he shines at Cheltenham. He's won a Coral Cup and ran in two World Hurdles before going chasing and he really has gone well over fences. He jumps well and seems to get along really well with new jockey Davy Russell. He has a fine record around Cheltenham, four wins and a place from nine runs here and he will be suited by better ground that we're likely to get. At 9/1 he's a very fair price and I can't really see him out of the first three.
Selection: Whisper 8/1 E/W (Various)
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
Next we go handicapping over hurdles and a maximum field of 26 is bound to line up here for the prize pot. Tombstone (5/1) is a short price favourite for this, having been mentioned for three races this festival, but it seems this is the one they've settled for. He could be well ahead of his mark, but you don't need me to find you the obvious ones. Favourites do have a poor record in the last ten years though, so keep that in mind.
I do like a different one of Gordon Elliot's though. Automated (11/1) seems to have been aimed at this race, having been put away after his last win in December. He swept around the field fairly easily that day and stayed on well to land the spoils over 2m4. He had a busy year last year, so a break will have done him good. According to Elliot he loves passing horses, so expect a similar sort of ride as last time and he could be Elliot's plan B.
I'd be very interested if Taquin De Seuil (22/1) pitches up here. He loves it around Cheltenham and although I'm not normally one for chasers going back over hurdles, he ran a decent race behind Ballyoptic on his seasonal return over hurdles. He is getting on a bit, but at the same time, he showed in the BetVictor Gold Cup in November that there's still plenty of life left in him. He's only run six times over hurdles in his life, but has won three of those and if he was to go here, he could run a mighty race. The 22/1 is available with NRNB and at that price it's well worth a try.
Selections: Automated 11/1 E/W (32Red & 888Sport) & Taquin De Seuil 22/1 E/W (32Red & 888Sport)
Queen Mother Champion Chase
The main event of day two will most likely be a procession. Douvan (2/7) will probably be one of the shortest priced favourites of the week and with an unbeaten streak of 13 races, it's not difficult to see why. His smallest margin of victory in those was just under four lengths, eased down, on only his second start and he's rarely been troubled over fences since. He should be far too good for these and we'll just watch him and enjoy the spectacle.
There will be value in behind though. Altior (5/2) is unlikely to run, as are Un de Sceaux (8/1), Uxizandre (25/1) and Vroum Vroum Mag (20/1). But as I've pointed out in my antepost blog here, for me the value lies with Special Tiara (20/1, 5/1 w/o Douvan) and Gods Own (14/1, 3/1 w/o Douvan). The latter also has an Ryanair entry and would be interesting if he turned up there, but his two mile record is slightly better and he's much better in the spring than in the autumn/winter. Of the two though, I would prefer Special Tiara. Henry de Bromhead's charge was a narrowly beaten into third in this race last year, but has won the only time he's raced this season on his preferred good ground. He saw off Sir Valentino in the Desert Orchid that day and although the form of the race isn't great, this horse always come alive here and especially on decent spring ground. It would depend on the shape of the final declarations for the race on whether you'd prefer to take the E/W outright, or without Douvan, but either way, he should be bang there in the race for second.
Shame it'll be probably a fence behind the winner.
Selection: Special Tiara 20/1 E/W (Will Hill), 5/1 w/o Douvan (365)
Cross Country Chase
This is one of my favourite races of the festival. It's something completely different and unique and the different obstacles make it a completely different test of jumping for all involved. You usually want a horse that is prominent, knows the track and jumps very well.
Since Josies Orders was ruled out, Cantlow (11/4) has been pretty steady at the top of the market. He won well here in December, but was shockingly overturned in January by the French Raider Urgent de Gregaine (since ruled out of this race). He seems to have improved immensely for the switch to Enda Bolger, but to me he's still a rogue. He can be moody, has refused to race in the past and as such is not one for me to be backing with any confidence. In the same colours Cause of Causes (4/1) has been very well supported since coming over to school a few times. He has plenty of festival form, but not over this course and was beaten 43 lengths on his only appearance over this track in January. He was well back that day and he's not one to race prominently. He's obviously talented, but perhaps not suited to this race. The third favourite also wears the same gold and green hoops. Auvergnat (8/1) would've been right there in January if he hadn't unseated, but he only had a featherweight to carry that day. He's not one to carry larger weights due this small stature and I couldn't have him off levels. Sausalito Sunrise (14/1), First Lieutentant (16/1) and Third Intention (25/1) were all useful regular chasers, but do not look like likely contenders in this discipline.
The regular Cross Country specialists, Quantativeeasing (14/1), Any Currency (14/1), Bless The Wings (14/1) and Ballybroker Bridge (33/1) are all getting a bit long in the tooth, although the former would be interesting in his best form (third last year and then went on to beat Cantlow at Punchestown). The latter of that foursome would be interesting if he price stayed that high, he's not got bad form (third to Auvergnat last time out, second to Cantlow before that and fifth in this last year) and if he turns up fully fit he's got an e/w squeak.
But my selection will be one of my favourite horses in training. Valadom (33/1) likes to race prominently, has plenty of experience around the track and is an excellent jumper of any kind of obstacle. His record around the track is solid, if unspectacular, reading 4564. The last 4 is the key one though. Where previously he had struggled to come home, the trip stretching his stamina to the limit, he galloped up the hill last time under Jamie Bargary and wasn't far behind third placed Any Currency. Unlike most of these, he's only an eight year old and still has scope for improvement. He'll most likely set off in front and if he's not given too hard a time contesting that lead, he'll have something left to come up the hill. Jamie Bargary knows him pretty well, having been in to school him and having ridden him to victory at Bangor in November.
Selection: Valadom 33/1 E/W (Various)
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Not a race I usually have a great interest in. A number of these also have entries in the Triump later in the week, so it's a bit of guesswork involved. Long Call and Divin Bere (both 6/1) sit at the top of the market and the former was impressive in winning what was essentially a nothing race at Hereford, on the bridle, before being a well beaten second behind leading Triumph hope Master Blueeyes. But his Irish form is nothing to write home about, so he goes on the scrapheap. Divin Bere however, did beat Master Blueeyes, by a neck, in his only race this season, but his lack of experience could be an issue. Most runners have had a few runs before winning this. Dinaria Des Obeaux (12/1) is probably a bit high in the weights for this (and might yet go for the Triumph) and the same could be said for Project Bluebook (14/1). Domperignon Du Lys (10/1) should have a cracking chance, but Nicky Henderson hasn't got the greatest record in the race.
Instead, I'll go for last years winning trainer, Paul Nicholls, with Dreamcatching (10/1). He's got a very nice mark and Stan Sheppard is booked to take five off again like the last time out. He won well that day, although it was a bit of a nothing race. He was fancied on debut behind Charli Parcs, but didn't run a good race there. He settled much better on his second start and duly obliged and the noises from Ditcheat are very positive about his chances.
Selection: Dreamcatching 10/1 E/W (Various)
Champion Bumper
As if a juvenile handicap isn't tricky enough, we end the day with a bumper that could throw up anything. Very solid at the top of the market is Carter McKay (10/3), but there is some concerns for him. First of all, his best performances seem to have come on deeper ground and he's not guaranteed to get that here. Better ground could be an issue for him. More depressingly, rumours are abound that his owner wants to ride him. While fully licensed and etc, he's not exactly known for his skill aboard a horse and that would put me off massively.
There's been plenty of talk about Western Ryder (8/1), Someday (8/1) and Cause Toujours (10/1), but thisis a race where I'd want a big price to get involved. Imperial Eloquence (25/1) would be one at a price that I like. He was third behind Poetic Rhythm in a Listed bumper here in November and although most of the horses in that race have since been over hurdles, he's been kept, seemingly for this race. He was second behind Western Ryder next time out, only beaten two lengths, but showed signs of greenness that day and he could well improve for returning to Cheltenham. He is well regarded in the yard and Fergal has had some excellent bumper winners this year. He's a much bigger price than Western Ryder, despite only two lengths in it, so represents a fair bit of value.
Selection: Imperial Eloquence 25/1 E/W (Various)
Neptune Novices' Hurdle
The Neptune Novices Hurdle over two mile five is an often misunderstood race. Although it's over a longer trip than the Supreme, it's often more of a speed test than the stamina test that is the Supreme. It's usually run at a slightly slower pace and turns into a bit of a sprint at the end. A turn of foot could well be crucial.
At the top of the market sits Neon Wolf (15/8), an even more solid favourite since Finian's Oscar was ruled out. He's been impressive in his starts so far and has the requisite turn of foot that suits the race. His trainer seems to think he'd be best suited by softish ground and it is true that his only run on good to soft has resulted in the smallest margin of victory, but he won with plenty in hand. Bacardys (3/1) is next in and he was impressive in winning the Deloitte. He quickened impressively, despite jumping slightly left on the run-in and should have a good chance. Lets Dance (7/1) and Death Duty (7/1) are contenders if they pitch up here, but they are more likely to go to other races.
I've had a small ante-post multiple containing Invitation Only (14/1) and Graham Wylie was very confident on him at the start of the season, but he hasn't shone since then and would need to have really been inspired in order to be involved here. If he is at his best, he'd have a very good chance of springing a surprise though. Willoughby Court (10/1) would have an excellent chance if he could replicate the form of his Warwick romp. He hacked up by eight lengths over Gayebury despite giving him four lbs. That horse has since bolted up in a Pertemps Qualifier by thirteen lengths and the fourth has also won. If one of the shorter priced ones fails to fire, then Ben Pauling's charge should have a good chance of picking up the pieces. If you want one at a big price, you might want to have a look at Wiliam Henry (20/1). He was a good second to Wholestone over C&D in January and could come on for that.
Selections: Willoughby Court 10/1 EW (Various)
RSA Novices' Chase
Next up is the RSA Chase, which can often be a gruelling race as shown last year when we sadly lost No More Heroes (and More Of That bled). Blaklion was a very game winner that day, grinding it out bravely up the hill and you need a tough cookie to win this race.
With that in mind, I'm going to strike off the first two in the market, Might Bite (4/1) and Alpha Des Obeaux (13/2). The former is by Scorpion, who has imparted some of his 'eccentricities' onto his offspring. He also has struggled at Cheltenham, having won a weak hurdle before being well beaten the next two times at the track. He has been impressive this season, with Premier Bond franking the form of his first win and he was well ahead at Kempton when he came down. But therein lies the problem. He doesn't jump entirely straightforward and in a festival race that can be a killer. At the prices, I'm happy to let him go. Alpha Des Obeaux is a very good horse, but he has bled twice this season and that is a huge concern. Mouse Morris is probably one of the best target trainers around, but I couldn't justify backing a horse in a tough race like this one with bleeding issues. That brings in Acapella Bourgeois (7/1), who is a likeable horse, but you can ask questions about the form of his last win, when he was granted a very easy lead. He will also need plenty of give in the ground, so unless the rain comes, it's unlikely that he'll be winning this in my opinion. I liked Bellshill (12/1) at the start of the season, but his jumping issues are evident and he's not shown up at his best at Cheltenham in the past. Punchestown would seem to be more his venue.
Plenty of the ones further down the market have entries elsewhere and are not guaranteed to run here, so that really leaves me with two. Royal Vacation (12/1) is the first of those. He was behind Might Bite at Kempton when that one came down, and would probably be flattered by that win, but he wasn't next time out at Cheltenham over the shorter trip. He's shown that he's no slouch, jumps well in the main and he has form at the track. Faster ground may be a concern, but that's something you'd be including when you get 16s. But he's not my selection. Instead, I'll go with Whisper (8/1) for Nicky Henderson. I know he's probably on the old side for this race, but he shines at Cheltenham. He's won a Coral Cup and ran in two World Hurdles before going chasing and he really has gone well over fences. He jumps well and seems to get along really well with new jockey Davy Russell. He has a fine record around Cheltenham, four wins and a place from nine runs here and he will be suited by better ground that we're likely to get. At 9/1 he's a very fair price and I can't really see him out of the first three.
Selection: Whisper 8/1 E/W (Various)
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
Next we go handicapping over hurdles and a maximum field of 26 is bound to line up here for the prize pot. Tombstone (5/1) is a short price favourite for this, having been mentioned for three races this festival, but it seems this is the one they've settled for. He could be well ahead of his mark, but you don't need me to find you the obvious ones. Favourites do have a poor record in the last ten years though, so keep that in mind.
I do like a different one of Gordon Elliot's though. Automated (11/1) seems to have been aimed at this race, having been put away after his last win in December. He swept around the field fairly easily that day and stayed on well to land the spoils over 2m4. He had a busy year last year, so a break will have done him good. According to Elliot he loves passing horses, so expect a similar sort of ride as last time and he could be Elliot's plan B.
I'd be very interested if Taquin De Seuil (22/1) pitches up here. He loves it around Cheltenham and although I'm not normally one for chasers going back over hurdles, he ran a decent race behind Ballyoptic on his seasonal return over hurdles. He is getting on a bit, but at the same time, he showed in the BetVictor Gold Cup in November that there's still plenty of life left in him. He's only run six times over hurdles in his life, but has won three of those and if he was to go here, he could run a mighty race. The 22/1 is available with NRNB and at that price it's well worth a try.
Selections: Automated 11/1 E/W (32Red & 888Sport) & Taquin De Seuil 22/1 E/W (32Red & 888Sport)
Queen Mother Champion Chase
The main event of day two will most likely be a procession. Douvan (2/7) will probably be one of the shortest priced favourites of the week and with an unbeaten streak of 13 races, it's not difficult to see why. His smallest margin of victory in those was just under four lengths, eased down, on only his second start and he's rarely been troubled over fences since. He should be far too good for these and we'll just watch him and enjoy the spectacle.
There will be value in behind though. Altior (5/2) is unlikely to run, as are Un de Sceaux (8/1), Uxizandre (25/1) and Vroum Vroum Mag (20/1). But as I've pointed out in my antepost blog here, for me the value lies with Special Tiara (20/1, 5/1 w/o Douvan) and Gods Own (14/1, 3/1 w/o Douvan). The latter also has an Ryanair entry and would be interesting if he turned up there, but his two mile record is slightly better and he's much better in the spring than in the autumn/winter. Of the two though, I would prefer Special Tiara. Henry de Bromhead's charge was a narrowly beaten into third in this race last year, but has won the only time he's raced this season on his preferred good ground. He saw off Sir Valentino in the Desert Orchid that day and although the form of the race isn't great, this horse always come alive here and especially on decent spring ground. It would depend on the shape of the final declarations for the race on whether you'd prefer to take the E/W outright, or without Douvan, but either way, he should be bang there in the race for second.
Shame it'll be probably a fence behind the winner.
Selection: Special Tiara 20/1 E/W (Will Hill), 5/1 w/o Douvan (365)
Cross Country Chase
This is one of my favourite races of the festival. It's something completely different and unique and the different obstacles make it a completely different test of jumping for all involved. You usually want a horse that is prominent, knows the track and jumps very well.
Since Josies Orders was ruled out, Cantlow (11/4) has been pretty steady at the top of the market. He won well here in December, but was shockingly overturned in January by the French Raider Urgent de Gregaine (since ruled out of this race). He seems to have improved immensely for the switch to Enda Bolger, but to me he's still a rogue. He can be moody, has refused to race in the past and as such is not one for me to be backing with any confidence. In the same colours Cause of Causes (4/1) has been very well supported since coming over to school a few times. He has plenty of festival form, but not over this course and was beaten 43 lengths on his only appearance over this track in January. He was well back that day and he's not one to race prominently. He's obviously talented, but perhaps not suited to this race. The third favourite also wears the same gold and green hoops. Auvergnat (8/1) would've been right there in January if he hadn't unseated, but he only had a featherweight to carry that day. He's not one to carry larger weights due this small stature and I couldn't have him off levels. Sausalito Sunrise (14/1), First Lieutentant (16/1) and Third Intention (25/1) were all useful regular chasers, but do not look like likely contenders in this discipline.
The regular Cross Country specialists, Quantativeeasing (14/1), Any Currency (14/1), Bless The Wings (14/1) and Ballybroker Bridge (33/1) are all getting a bit long in the tooth, although the former would be interesting in his best form (third last year and then went on to beat Cantlow at Punchestown). The latter of that foursome would be interesting if he price stayed that high, he's not got bad form (third to Auvergnat last time out, second to Cantlow before that and fifth in this last year) and if he turns up fully fit he's got an e/w squeak.
But my selection will be one of my favourite horses in training. Valadom (33/1) likes to race prominently, has plenty of experience around the track and is an excellent jumper of any kind of obstacle. His record around the track is solid, if unspectacular, reading 4564. The last 4 is the key one though. Where previously he had struggled to come home, the trip stretching his stamina to the limit, he galloped up the hill last time under Jamie Bargary and wasn't far behind third placed Any Currency. Unlike most of these, he's only an eight year old and still has scope for improvement. He'll most likely set off in front and if he's not given too hard a time contesting that lead, he'll have something left to come up the hill. Jamie Bargary knows him pretty well, having been in to school him and having ridden him to victory at Bangor in November.
Selection: Valadom 33/1 E/W (Various)
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Not a race I usually have a great interest in. A number of these also have entries in the Triump later in the week, so it's a bit of guesswork involved. Long Call and Divin Bere (both 6/1) sit at the top of the market and the former was impressive in winning what was essentially a nothing race at Hereford, on the bridle, before being a well beaten second behind leading Triumph hope Master Blueeyes. But his Irish form is nothing to write home about, so he goes on the scrapheap. Divin Bere however, did beat Master Blueeyes, by a neck, in his only race this season, but his lack of experience could be an issue. Most runners have had a few runs before winning this. Dinaria Des Obeaux (12/1) is probably a bit high in the weights for this (and might yet go for the Triumph) and the same could be said for Project Bluebook (14/1). Domperignon Du Lys (10/1) should have a cracking chance, but Nicky Henderson hasn't got the greatest record in the race.
Instead, I'll go for last years winning trainer, Paul Nicholls, with Dreamcatching (10/1). He's got a very nice mark and Stan Sheppard is booked to take five off again like the last time out. He won well that day, although it was a bit of a nothing race. He was fancied on debut behind Charli Parcs, but didn't run a good race there. He settled much better on his second start and duly obliged and the noises from Ditcheat are very positive about his chances.
Selection: Dreamcatching 10/1 E/W (Various)
Champion Bumper
As if a juvenile handicap isn't tricky enough, we end the day with a bumper that could throw up anything. Very solid at the top of the market is Carter McKay (10/3), but there is some concerns for him. First of all, his best performances seem to have come on deeper ground and he's not guaranteed to get that here. Better ground could be an issue for him. More depressingly, rumours are abound that his owner wants to ride him. While fully licensed and etc, he's not exactly known for his skill aboard a horse and that would put me off massively.
There's been plenty of talk about Western Ryder (8/1), Someday (8/1) and Cause Toujours (10/1), but thisis a race where I'd want a big price to get involved. Imperial Eloquence (25/1) would be one at a price that I like. He was third behind Poetic Rhythm in a Listed bumper here in November and although most of the horses in that race have since been over hurdles, he's been kept, seemingly for this race. He was second behind Western Ryder next time out, only beaten two lengths, but showed signs of greenness that day and he could well improve for returning to Cheltenham. He is well regarded in the yard and Fergal has had some excellent bumper winners this year. He's a much bigger price than Western Ryder, despite only two lengths in it, so represents a fair bit of value.
Selection: Imperial Eloquence 25/1 E/W (Various)
Saturday 11 March 2017
Cheltenham Preview - Day One
Cheltenham Tuesday - Champion Day
By @redgameracer
Please note that most of this blog was written before Moon Racer was confirmed for the Champion Hurdle, so apologies for any inaccuracies in that.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
By @redgameracer
Please note that most of this blog was written before Moon Racer was confirmed for the Champion Hurdle, so apologies for any inaccuracies in that.
In a piece that will probably end up far too long for anyone to bother with reading, I'm looking ahead to the opening day of the 2017 festival. This year's festival has been blighted by a large number of stars being absent due to injuries or retirements or sadly even their passing, but there's still plenty of top notch racing coming up and plenty of good horses will be on show.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
It all kicks off with the Supreme which is still a very muddled picture indeed. Melon (4/1) is the current favourite, but he has plenty of questions to answer with regards to his experience and how good he really is. Sure, he bolted up on the bridle on debut, but he's only had one run in public. Also, Broken Soul hasn't exactly franked the form in behind. At the same time, he was visually impressive, moved well and jumped well and his time, I'm told, has worked out well on the clock. Ballyandy (5/1) is next in and he should be suited by the type of race the Supreme is. While many may think you need a speed horse for this, it's actually all about stamina. It's run at a ferocious gallop and especially for young horses that can be tough to keep up. Ballyandy should be well suited to a Supreme as he has stamina and put up his best performance in the Betfair Hurdle, a race ran at a good gallop. Too short for my liking though.
I don't like Moon Racer (6/1), I think he's a fragile horse and I don't believe he's got the stamina to win a Supreme. Connections might be better off chucking him in the Champion Hurdle, although I wouldn't fancy him there either. Neon Wolf (6/1) is more than likely to go for the Neptune unless it turns up especially soft. Bunk Off Early (7/1) would not appeal to me at all on pedigree as a jumps horse and I dread to think how he'll feel at the bottom of that hill.
At bigger prices, it might pay off to look at something like High Bridge (16/1) or Crack Mome (16/1). High Bridge was 6th in last year's bumper behind Ballyandy and has since notched up a three-timer over hurdles. He probably hasn't beaten much, but he seems progressive and could have more to come. Crack Mome won on debut before being denied in the Moscow Flyer by Any Second Now. He made a mess of the last, but rallied to finish second and you can certainly make a case that if he'd jumped it better, he would've won. The winner has let the form down since, but the third has won again and I think Crack Mome will improve for the better ground that we're likely to get. It would also say that him having run in the Moscow Flyer is a significant pointer. Mullins is a creature of habit and the previous four winners of the race have been Min, Douvan, Vautour and Mozoltov. The latter didn't go to Cheltenham, but the other three have all pitched up in the Supreme and won or gone very close. A lot will depend on jockey bookings to see how far up the pecking order he is, but at 16/1, he's a fair price.
Selection: Crack Mome 16/1 (Various)
Arkle Novices' Chase
Since the withdrawal of Min, this all revolves around Altior (1/3). If he stands up, he wins, simple as that really. He's already shown that he's capable in open company, beating Fox Norton thirteen lengths in the Game Spirit and it would really surprise me if he doesn't run away with this one. But there's still value to be had in the race for second. Yorkhill (4/5 w/o) is unlikely to turn up here, although if he did, he would be the one to challenge the favourite. He'll almost certainly head for the JLT though. Charbel (3/1 w/o) is a good jumper and should set a decent gallop, but you'd have to worry he burns himself out setting the pace. Royal Caviar (9/2 w/o) is a solid contender and would probably have won the Irish Arkle if he'd stood up at the last. He's a sound jumper, but coming into the festival on the back of a fall is a worry though and it's something that hasn't worked well for a lot of contenders in recent years. So I'll swerve him as well.
The value, for me anyway, here lies with the two contenders from the North, Forest Bihan (15/2 w/o) for Brian Ellison and Cloudy Dream (11/2 w/o) for Malcolm Jefferson. The latter won very easily at Haydock at the Betfair Chase meeting before being denied by Buveur D'Air giving away a chunk of weight. He then went to Doncaster where he found Forest Behind too good, giving him three lbs. He jumps well and travels smoothly and he'll have no problem sitting of the pace and coming to challenge late. Forest Bihan has a similar profile, although a bit more exposed, but he came home very strongly that day at Doncaster to claim the spoils. He might find that a bit harder here off levels and that's why I would side with Cloudy Dream in the without market.
Selection: Cloudy Dream 11/2 W/O Altior (Betfair)
Ultima Handicap Chase
Our first handicap for this year and it's usually a pretty competitive affair. It's also a race that the Irish don't do well in with just the two winners since 2003 and none in the 38 years before that. Something to bear in mind. There's a maximum field of 24 and that would leave two horses near the top of the market out of it at the moment. Both Singlefarmpayment (9/1) and Champers On Ice (14/1) will need defections to get into the race. The former would certainly be interesting off a mark of 142, having won a Novices Chase over C&D here in December. He was brought down when travelling well here over slightly shorter and if that hasn't left a mark, he's entitled to do well. He would be near the bottom of the weights if he does manage to sneak in, so he'd have a fair chance. You'd imagine he'll be shorter on the day if he does get in, so perhaps taking the price now wouldn't be such a bad thing.
The one that really catches my eye though is Holywell (14/1). He's got C&D form, having won this race a couple of years ago and finishing second to Un Temps Pour Tout last year. He's been a complete no-show this season, beaten a cumulative 273 lengths in his three completed starts, but as a result, his mark has now slid to a very workable 148. He won this off 145 in 2014 and was off 153 last year when second. Again, his second last year was his only good performance all year, having been beaten a total of 56 lengths in his two completed starts. Jonjo obviously likes to target this race for him and off this mark he should have another big race in him.
At a big price, you'd have to look at Kruzhlinin (40/1), who was fifth in this race last year off two lbs higher. He was second to Our Kaempfer at Kempton in January, making a bad mistake two out and then didn't show up too well in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. You'd imagine the National is his target again this year, but he wouldn't be the first to take in this race on the way there. He's not been in too bad form this year, winning the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock and coming third in a Pertemps Qualifier and on his best form, he's got a lot more chance that 40/1 would suggest. There are questions on whether he will turn up here, having also got entries in the Pertemps final and the Kim Muir, but at 40/1 with the non-runner no-bet concession he seems a big price.
Selections: Holywell 14/1 EW (365) & Kruzhlinin (40/1 32Red & 888Sport)
Champion Hurdle
The big race on day one may well turn out to be a sub-standard renewal. Whoever gets on the honour roll, they won't quite be the class of Faugheen or Annie Power, but let's not dwell on that.
I'm struggling with this race in that I don't like most of the ones at the top of the market. I'm not convinced by Yanworth (3/1) and probably never will be, but this race seems on the short side for him for me. He's also a pretty sloppy jumper at times and I don't think he's got the Faugheen engine to get away with it. Sure he's been grinding it out and kept winning, but he just don't scream Champion Hurdle to me. Buveur D'Air (9/2) has only just come back to hurdles having been chasing at the start of the season and while he won his only hurdles start with any amount in hand, it's hard to assess the form of that race. He will appreciate any give in the ground and that may well be his best chance of winning, but he's not for me. Petit Mouchoir (6/1) has done well this season and bring the strong form from last year's Supreme to the table, but again he hasn't really impressed. Sure, he has improved this year, but I don't think he's good enough to claim even this weakened Champion.
Vroum Vroum Mag and Moon Racer (both 12/1) are not certain to turn up and I'd have my reservations about either of them winning this race. Moon Racer, we've touched upon in the Supreme, but for me, he's too fragile. VVM has not sparkled this year and while I like her, I don't think two miles is her best trip. She only ever does enough, so there may be more to come, but I just couldn't back her. The New One (14/1) could go close, if he's raced prominently enough, he could finally have his year, but he's been here plenty of times without winning that I'm happy to let him pass by as well.
I've already put up My Tent Or Yours (18/1) in my antepost blog here at 50/1, along with Wicklow Brave (40/1) at 33/1 and I'm quite happy to stick with those two. I'd love to see Cyrus Darius (50/1) go close and I'll probably have a sentimental 50p E/W on him, but I really can't see him winning.
Selections: My Tent Or Yours 18/1 EW (365) & Wicklow Brave 40/1 EW (Various).
Mares' Hurdle
Mullins has a truckload of mares ready for this, having also entered most of his novices, but the focus here will be on the few at the front of the market. Limini (11/8) has been backed into favouritism as is as short as odds on in places after she was not supplemented for the Champion Hurdle. I'm not sure the 2m4 around Cheltenham is her best trip, but she put away Apples Jade (3/1) convincingly at Punchestown last time out, in ground that probably wasn't optimal. She's got winning festival form, having won the Mares Novice race last year and if Vroum Vroum Mag (9/4) doesn't turn up in this, she's the one to beat.
If Vroum Vroum were to turn up here instead of any of her other engagements (and she's got a few), she's the one to beat. She's best suited by this trip, won this easily last year before taking the Punchestown Champion Hurdle. The concerns would be that she hasn't sparkled of late and only narrowly won at Doncaster before returning ill. She's also entered in half the festival races, so could turn up anywhere, if you do back her, make sure you have NRNB.
Apple's Jade was a very good juvenile and has mixed the very good with the very bad this year. She just beat VVM in the Hatton's Grace, after finishing behind Irving in the Fighting Fifth and then was easily held by Limini the last time. On that form, she's not good enough to beat either of these and you'd struggle to make a case for her here again.
If you're looking for something from the home front to perhaps pick up the pieces, you couldn't go far wrong with Lifeboat Mona (12/1). She beat Midnight Jazz (25/1) last time out by three lengths and that one was only denied a head by Vroum Vroum Mag at Doncaster. While the Mullins mare wasn't in top shape that day, it's still a decent enough form line. She also had subsequent winner Desert Queen behind that day and Briery Queen who won a handicap here in November over C&D, so she's one to be with from an each way perspective.
Selection: Vroum Vroum Mag 9/4 Win (PP/BFSB NRNB).
National Hunt Chase
The gruelling test of four miles at Cheltenham is one that often throws up decent horses and last years renewal looks particularly strong with the first two in the race both in this year's Gold Cup fancies.
With this being an amateur event, it pays to pay close attention to the jockey bookings. You want the likes of Derek O'Connor or Jamie Codd on your side in these races. Neither of them have nailed their colours to the mast yet, so it's a bit of guesswork at the minute. A Genie In Abottle (5/1) is the current favourite and he's one of the potential rides for Jamie Codd. The price seems way too short for me to get involved though. Edwulf (7/1) is second favourite, but I wouldn't trust him to jump one fence, never mind all of them over four miles. He's not really the greatest of jumpers and although he's managed a couple of wins this season, he's not for me. In fact, I could also make cases against the others at the top of the market. Champers On Ice (10/1) and Arpege D'Alene (14/1) are both just too slow, even over this marathon trip. Beware the Bear (10/1) has some decent form in the book and could run a big race here.
If I had to pick two here though, I'd have Martello Tower (14/1) and Battle of Shiloh (40/1). The former hasn't performed too badly this season, beating the current favourite at Fairyhouse over a much shorter trip, but hasn't been at his best since. He is however, a previous festival winner, claiming the Albert Bartlett in 2015 and that's the sort of experience that'll stand you in good stead. The only other festival winner in the field is Tiger Roll (25/1), who won the Triumph and on a going day would be one to be reckoned with. Those days have been few and far between though, so I'd rather take a punt on the 40/1 chance Battle of Shiloh. Tom George's charge had notched up four wins on the bounce over hurdles and fences before coming down on the home run at Chepstow when beaten. I think he'll improve for the step up in trip and if he can put in a clean round of jumping he's got a chance of being involved.
Selections: Martello Tower 14/1 E/W & Battle of Shiloh 40/1 E/W
Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase
The final race of the opening day is the 2m4f Novices' Handicap Chase. I say handicap, but the spread of the weights is likely to be less than half a stone. It's a tricky race to read in that half the top end of the market won't actually get into the race as it stands. Romain De Senam (8/1), Brother Tedd (14/1) and Squouateur (14/1) would be balloted out if all the others stand their ground.
There's three in this race that I like. We'll start with Burtons Well (20/1), who does need four to come out in order to get into the race. He was well beaten on his return this season, by the exciting Waiting Patiently, but that was over the minimum trip. He was seven lengths behind, but he was coming of a 600 days break and shaped a much better next time out when he beat Pistol Park over 2m4 at Uttoxeter. That was in heavy ground and he does seem at his best with a bit of cut. He finished fourth at Cheltenham subsequently, not jumping fluently that day, but if he gets it together and sneaks in at the bottom, he could make amends for that.
Nearer the top of the weights and guaranteed a run is Double W's (16/1). He placed at Cheltenham back in November 2015, albeit over hurdles, but he's improved quite a bit over fences. Brian Hughes has suggested this is his best chance of a winner all week and at the prices, he's one I'd like to be with. He's not raced over this distance over fences yet, but he shouldn't be inconvenienced by the step up in trip and has a great chance to add to Malcolm Jefferson's festival honours.
Finally, another who will probably be best suited by a bit of cut is Bun Doran (20/1). He was third behind Pobbles Bay on reappearance, in what is probably one of the strongest races for form this season. Of the thirteen horses that ran in that race, ten have come out and won since, four of those more than once. Bun Doran followed up by winning at Newcastle by five lengths and ran in a Grade Two race after that, won by Waiting Patiently. Although he pulled up when beaten, he shaped well for a long way in tough company.
Since Bun Doran & Double W's are the two that will certainly get in, I'll make them my selections, but should Burtons Well get in, he'll have a good chance
Selections: Double W's 16/1 EW, Bun Doran 20/1 EW
I don't like Moon Racer (6/1), I think he's a fragile horse and I don't believe he's got the stamina to win a Supreme. Connections might be better off chucking him in the Champion Hurdle, although I wouldn't fancy him there either. Neon Wolf (6/1) is more than likely to go for the Neptune unless it turns up especially soft. Bunk Off Early (7/1) would not appeal to me at all on pedigree as a jumps horse and I dread to think how he'll feel at the bottom of that hill.
At bigger prices, it might pay off to look at something like High Bridge (16/1) or Crack Mome (16/1). High Bridge was 6th in last year's bumper behind Ballyandy and has since notched up a three-timer over hurdles. He probably hasn't beaten much, but he seems progressive and could have more to come. Crack Mome won on debut before being denied in the Moscow Flyer by Any Second Now. He made a mess of the last, but rallied to finish second and you can certainly make a case that if he'd jumped it better, he would've won. The winner has let the form down since, but the third has won again and I think Crack Mome will improve for the better ground that we're likely to get. It would also say that him having run in the Moscow Flyer is a significant pointer. Mullins is a creature of habit and the previous four winners of the race have been Min, Douvan, Vautour and Mozoltov. The latter didn't go to Cheltenham, but the other three have all pitched up in the Supreme and won or gone very close. A lot will depend on jockey bookings to see how far up the pecking order he is, but at 16/1, he's a fair price.
Selection: Crack Mome 16/1 (Various)
Arkle Novices' Chase
Since the withdrawal of Min, this all revolves around Altior (1/3). If he stands up, he wins, simple as that really. He's already shown that he's capable in open company, beating Fox Norton thirteen lengths in the Game Spirit and it would really surprise me if he doesn't run away with this one. But there's still value to be had in the race for second. Yorkhill (4/5 w/o) is unlikely to turn up here, although if he did, he would be the one to challenge the favourite. He'll almost certainly head for the JLT though. Charbel (3/1 w/o) is a good jumper and should set a decent gallop, but you'd have to worry he burns himself out setting the pace. Royal Caviar (9/2 w/o) is a solid contender and would probably have won the Irish Arkle if he'd stood up at the last. He's a sound jumper, but coming into the festival on the back of a fall is a worry though and it's something that hasn't worked well for a lot of contenders in recent years. So I'll swerve him as well.
The value, for me anyway, here lies with the two contenders from the North, Forest Bihan (15/2 w/o) for Brian Ellison and Cloudy Dream (11/2 w/o) for Malcolm Jefferson. The latter won very easily at Haydock at the Betfair Chase meeting before being denied by Buveur D'Air giving away a chunk of weight. He then went to Doncaster where he found Forest Behind too good, giving him three lbs. He jumps well and travels smoothly and he'll have no problem sitting of the pace and coming to challenge late. Forest Bihan has a similar profile, although a bit more exposed, but he came home very strongly that day at Doncaster to claim the spoils. He might find that a bit harder here off levels and that's why I would side with Cloudy Dream in the without market.
Selection: Cloudy Dream 11/2 W/O Altior (Betfair)
Ultima Handicap Chase
Our first handicap for this year and it's usually a pretty competitive affair. It's also a race that the Irish don't do well in with just the two winners since 2003 and none in the 38 years before that. Something to bear in mind. There's a maximum field of 24 and that would leave two horses near the top of the market out of it at the moment. Both Singlefarmpayment (9/1) and Champers On Ice (14/1) will need defections to get into the race. The former would certainly be interesting off a mark of 142, having won a Novices Chase over C&D here in December. He was brought down when travelling well here over slightly shorter and if that hasn't left a mark, he's entitled to do well. He would be near the bottom of the weights if he does manage to sneak in, so he'd have a fair chance. You'd imagine he'll be shorter on the day if he does get in, so perhaps taking the price now wouldn't be such a bad thing.
The one that really catches my eye though is Holywell (14/1). He's got C&D form, having won this race a couple of years ago and finishing second to Un Temps Pour Tout last year. He's been a complete no-show this season, beaten a cumulative 273 lengths in his three completed starts, but as a result, his mark has now slid to a very workable 148. He won this off 145 in 2014 and was off 153 last year when second. Again, his second last year was his only good performance all year, having been beaten a total of 56 lengths in his two completed starts. Jonjo obviously likes to target this race for him and off this mark he should have another big race in him.
At a big price, you'd have to look at Kruzhlinin (40/1), who was fifth in this race last year off two lbs higher. He was second to Our Kaempfer at Kempton in January, making a bad mistake two out and then didn't show up too well in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. You'd imagine the National is his target again this year, but he wouldn't be the first to take in this race on the way there. He's not been in too bad form this year, winning the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock and coming third in a Pertemps Qualifier and on his best form, he's got a lot more chance that 40/1 would suggest. There are questions on whether he will turn up here, having also got entries in the Pertemps final and the Kim Muir, but at 40/1 with the non-runner no-bet concession he seems a big price.
Selections: Holywell 14/1 EW (365) & Kruzhlinin (40/1 32Red & 888Sport)
Champion Hurdle
The big race on day one may well turn out to be a sub-standard renewal. Whoever gets on the honour roll, they won't quite be the class of Faugheen or Annie Power, but let's not dwell on that.
I'm struggling with this race in that I don't like most of the ones at the top of the market. I'm not convinced by Yanworth (3/1) and probably never will be, but this race seems on the short side for him for me. He's also a pretty sloppy jumper at times and I don't think he's got the Faugheen engine to get away with it. Sure he's been grinding it out and kept winning, but he just don't scream Champion Hurdle to me. Buveur D'Air (9/2) has only just come back to hurdles having been chasing at the start of the season and while he won his only hurdles start with any amount in hand, it's hard to assess the form of that race. He will appreciate any give in the ground and that may well be his best chance of winning, but he's not for me. Petit Mouchoir (6/1) has done well this season and bring the strong form from last year's Supreme to the table, but again he hasn't really impressed. Sure, he has improved this year, but I don't think he's good enough to claim even this weakened Champion.
Vroum Vroum Mag and Moon Racer (both 12/1) are not certain to turn up and I'd have my reservations about either of them winning this race. Moon Racer, we've touched upon in the Supreme, but for me, he's too fragile. VVM has not sparkled this year and while I like her, I don't think two miles is her best trip. She only ever does enough, so there may be more to come, but I just couldn't back her. The New One (14/1) could go close, if he's raced prominently enough, he could finally have his year, but he's been here plenty of times without winning that I'm happy to let him pass by as well.
I've already put up My Tent Or Yours (18/1) in my antepost blog here at 50/1, along with Wicklow Brave (40/1) at 33/1 and I'm quite happy to stick with those two. I'd love to see Cyrus Darius (50/1) go close and I'll probably have a sentimental 50p E/W on him, but I really can't see him winning.
Selections: My Tent Or Yours 18/1 EW (365) & Wicklow Brave 40/1 EW (Various).
Mares' Hurdle
Mullins has a truckload of mares ready for this, having also entered most of his novices, but the focus here will be on the few at the front of the market. Limini (11/8) has been backed into favouritism as is as short as odds on in places after she was not supplemented for the Champion Hurdle. I'm not sure the 2m4 around Cheltenham is her best trip, but she put away Apples Jade (3/1) convincingly at Punchestown last time out, in ground that probably wasn't optimal. She's got winning festival form, having won the Mares Novice race last year and if Vroum Vroum Mag (9/4) doesn't turn up in this, she's the one to beat.
If Vroum Vroum were to turn up here instead of any of her other engagements (and she's got a few), she's the one to beat. She's best suited by this trip, won this easily last year before taking the Punchestown Champion Hurdle. The concerns would be that she hasn't sparkled of late and only narrowly won at Doncaster before returning ill. She's also entered in half the festival races, so could turn up anywhere, if you do back her, make sure you have NRNB.
Apple's Jade was a very good juvenile and has mixed the very good with the very bad this year. She just beat VVM in the Hatton's Grace, after finishing behind Irving in the Fighting Fifth and then was easily held by Limini the last time. On that form, she's not good enough to beat either of these and you'd struggle to make a case for her here again.
If you're looking for something from the home front to perhaps pick up the pieces, you couldn't go far wrong with Lifeboat Mona (12/1). She beat Midnight Jazz (25/1) last time out by three lengths and that one was only denied a head by Vroum Vroum Mag at Doncaster. While the Mullins mare wasn't in top shape that day, it's still a decent enough form line. She also had subsequent winner Desert Queen behind that day and Briery Queen who won a handicap here in November over C&D, so she's one to be with from an each way perspective.
Selection: Vroum Vroum Mag 9/4 Win (PP/BFSB NRNB).
National Hunt Chase
The gruelling test of four miles at Cheltenham is one that often throws up decent horses and last years renewal looks particularly strong with the first two in the race both in this year's Gold Cup fancies.
With this being an amateur event, it pays to pay close attention to the jockey bookings. You want the likes of Derek O'Connor or Jamie Codd on your side in these races. Neither of them have nailed their colours to the mast yet, so it's a bit of guesswork at the minute. A Genie In Abottle (5/1) is the current favourite and he's one of the potential rides for Jamie Codd. The price seems way too short for me to get involved though. Edwulf (7/1) is second favourite, but I wouldn't trust him to jump one fence, never mind all of them over four miles. He's not really the greatest of jumpers and although he's managed a couple of wins this season, he's not for me. In fact, I could also make cases against the others at the top of the market. Champers On Ice (10/1) and Arpege D'Alene (14/1) are both just too slow, even over this marathon trip. Beware the Bear (10/1) has some decent form in the book and could run a big race here.
If I had to pick two here though, I'd have Martello Tower (14/1) and Battle of Shiloh (40/1). The former hasn't performed too badly this season, beating the current favourite at Fairyhouse over a much shorter trip, but hasn't been at his best since. He is however, a previous festival winner, claiming the Albert Bartlett in 2015 and that's the sort of experience that'll stand you in good stead. The only other festival winner in the field is Tiger Roll (25/1), who won the Triumph and on a going day would be one to be reckoned with. Those days have been few and far between though, so I'd rather take a punt on the 40/1 chance Battle of Shiloh. Tom George's charge had notched up four wins on the bounce over hurdles and fences before coming down on the home run at Chepstow when beaten. I think he'll improve for the step up in trip and if he can put in a clean round of jumping he's got a chance of being involved.
Selections: Martello Tower 14/1 E/W & Battle of Shiloh 40/1 E/W
Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase
The final race of the opening day is the 2m4f Novices' Handicap Chase. I say handicap, but the spread of the weights is likely to be less than half a stone. It's a tricky race to read in that half the top end of the market won't actually get into the race as it stands. Romain De Senam (8/1), Brother Tedd (14/1) and Squouateur (14/1) would be balloted out if all the others stand their ground.
There's three in this race that I like. We'll start with Burtons Well (20/1), who does need four to come out in order to get into the race. He was well beaten on his return this season, by the exciting Waiting Patiently, but that was over the minimum trip. He was seven lengths behind, but he was coming of a 600 days break and shaped a much better next time out when he beat Pistol Park over 2m4 at Uttoxeter. That was in heavy ground and he does seem at his best with a bit of cut. He finished fourth at Cheltenham subsequently, not jumping fluently that day, but if he gets it together and sneaks in at the bottom, he could make amends for that.
Nearer the top of the weights and guaranteed a run is Double W's (16/1). He placed at Cheltenham back in November 2015, albeit over hurdles, but he's improved quite a bit over fences. Brian Hughes has suggested this is his best chance of a winner all week and at the prices, he's one I'd like to be with. He's not raced over this distance over fences yet, but he shouldn't be inconvenienced by the step up in trip and has a great chance to add to Malcolm Jefferson's festival honours.
Finally, another who will probably be best suited by a bit of cut is Bun Doran (20/1). He was third behind Pobbles Bay on reappearance, in what is probably one of the strongest races for form this season. Of the thirteen horses that ran in that race, ten have come out and won since, four of those more than once. Bun Doran followed up by winning at Newcastle by five lengths and ran in a Grade Two race after that, won by Waiting Patiently. Although he pulled up when beaten, he shaped well for a long way in tough company.
Since Bun Doran & Double W's are the two that will certainly get in, I'll make them my selections, but should Burtons Well get in, he'll have a good chance
Selections: Double W's 16/1 EW, Bun Doran 20/1 EW
Friday 24 February 2017
Friday 24th February
Hi all,
Quick update on the only Hobson runner tomorrow. A change of plans means that Dame Rose is set to run in the bumper at Warwick at 5.15. Conor O'Farrell keeps the ride after a great job last time out when she ran out an excellent winner at Doncaster. The form of that race was franked earlier in the week when the fourth and fifth finished first and second at Wetherby. The sixth was denied by a head in an earlier race this month. She looks like she should be able to cope with the softer ground and they way she has stayed on in her races suggests that she should have the stamina to see out a trip on this ground. She has to carry a penalty for her last success, but she's still getting weight from her two main rivals.
The market seems to suggest that Nicky Henderson's Turn Turk is fancied, despite the form of her only win not working out particularly well (only the third from that race has hit the frame since). The jockey claims 7 lbs to negate most of the penalty, but she has it all to do. Third in the market is Grey Warbler who finished second to JP McManus' horse Champ at Southwell on debut. That form looks decent enough, although she was getting over a stone (if you include the jockey's claim) from the horse named after AP McCoy and was still beaten by over three lengths. This time round, she has to give weight to all bar the Henderson horse and that could be trickier. Royal Claret has some decent form in the book, but looks held by Dame Rose on a form line through My Michelle.
Of the newcomers, Potters Angelique could be a useful sort and she could be one to keep an eye on. Having said that, Dame Rose looks to have an excellent chance to win here and I'll happily back her at the current prices (3/1 available).
Quick update on the only Hobson runner tomorrow. A change of plans means that Dame Rose is set to run in the bumper at Warwick at 5.15. Conor O'Farrell keeps the ride after a great job last time out when she ran out an excellent winner at Doncaster. The form of that race was franked earlier in the week when the fourth and fifth finished first and second at Wetherby. The sixth was denied by a head in an earlier race this month. She looks like she should be able to cope with the softer ground and they way she has stayed on in her races suggests that she should have the stamina to see out a trip on this ground. She has to carry a penalty for her last success, but she's still getting weight from her two main rivals.
The market seems to suggest that Nicky Henderson's Turn Turk is fancied, despite the form of her only win not working out particularly well (only the third from that race has hit the frame since). The jockey claims 7 lbs to negate most of the penalty, but she has it all to do. Third in the market is Grey Warbler who finished second to JP McManus' horse Champ at Southwell on debut. That form looks decent enough, although she was getting over a stone (if you include the jockey's claim) from the horse named after AP McCoy and was still beaten by over three lengths. This time round, she has to give weight to all bar the Henderson horse and that could be trickier. Royal Claret has some decent form in the book, but looks held by Dame Rose on a form line through My Michelle.
Of the newcomers, Potters Angelique could be a useful sort and she could be one to keep an eye on. Having said that, Dame Rose looks to have an excellent chance to win here and I'll happily back her at the current prices (3/1 available).
Wednesday 25 January 2017
Cheltenham Preview - Champion Chase
Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase Preview
Red looks forward to the second of the Championship races of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival, the Champion Chase and gives his thoughts on the likely runners and their chances.
First of all, let's dispense with the preliminary's. IF Douvan (1/2 Black Type) gets there and stands up, he wins. Doing cartwheels. And you could make a pretty decent return on investment between 33 & 50% if you backed him for it. While as a horse racing fan, that makes no appeal, but as an investor it does. Sure, there's risks, he could pick up an injury, or fall at the last, but the risks are no more than any other invest 'for a 33% profit in a matter of days' strategy. As a investor, it seems like a decent risk/reward.
But let's focus on the race. The presence of Douvan will no doubt scare of a few runners
Altior (8/1 general) is second in the market, especially with those offering a non-runner no bet concession, but his trainer has already ruled him out of the race 'unless Douvan doesn't run'. He's more likely to renew his rivalry with Min in the Arkle.
Fox Norton (8/1 Betfair) was third behind Douvan in the Arkle and has since added a handicap win and the Grade Two Schloer Chase to his bedpost, doing so rather impressively. He's now rated within 2 lbs of Douvan and has the C&D form for this race, but I struggle to see him getting close to Douvan. In the without market, his price would be too restrictive for me at 5/2, so he's a no from me.
Next in is Un de Sceaux (14/1 Betair & Betway), second last year to Sprinter Sacre. He's got the C&D form as well, having won the Arkle in 2015 and placing last year behind the resurgent Sprinter, but you'd think his participation would be unlikely given the presence of his stablemate Douvan. I do believe two miles is his best trip, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Mullins team stepped him up to two mile five for the Ryanair. But with doubts over his participation, the 7 or 8/1 available on NRNB is not enough for me to be tempted.
There's a few more to rule out. Ar Mad (25/1 Betfair) has dodged the re-arranged Clarence House at Cheltenham with doubts over his ability to go left handed and now steps up in trip at Ascot for the Ascot Chase. Both of those points would make him an unlikely runner in this for me, although I think he's a very good horse. Equally, Vroum Vroum Mag (25/1 various) is very unlikely to run in this, even as a super-sub. Sizing John (33/1) was shortened dramatically for the Ryanair after his win in the Kinloch Brae and he wouldn't want to be chasing Douvan again.
That leaves me with two who I'd expect to go for the race and give a very good account of themselves. Special Tiara (25/1 various) has finished third in the last two runnings of this race and Henry De Bromhead's ten year old always improves for better ground. He wasn't at his best, but still managed to win the Desert Orchid last time out, narrowly edging out Sir Valentino. At 25/1 he seems a very fair price for an each way bet. Even if you take him on place only or without the favourite you should be able to get a decent price.
At the same price, God's Own (25/1 various) is another who will run his race. Fourth in the race last year and second behind Un de Sceaux in the Arkle the year before, he's got a decent form line over C&D. He finished off last season in stylish fashion, with a win in the Melling Chase followed by beating Vautour in the Punchestown Champion Chase. He's another who does better in the spring, but wasn't beaten far in the Tingle Creak by Un de Sceaux. His spring form over fences though is quite good (122F411, from March - May), compared to the autumn and winter months (24217332233, October - February). The only reservation is that he might step up to the Ryanair as they've been mixing his trip a fair bit this year, but 25s is a very fair price.
No Bet:
Douvan to win (1/3)
Suggested:
Special Tiara 25/1 E/W Various
God's Own 25/1 E/W Various
As always, if you have any feedback, suggestions or just want to laugh at my choices, @redgameracer on twitter is the place to be.
Red
Red looks forward to the second of the Championship races of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival, the Champion Chase and gives his thoughts on the likely runners and their chances.
First of all, let's dispense with the preliminary's. IF Douvan (1/2 Black Type) gets there and stands up, he wins. Doing cartwheels. And you could make a pretty decent return on investment between 33 & 50% if you backed him for it. While as a horse racing fan, that makes no appeal, but as an investor it does. Sure, there's risks, he could pick up an injury, or fall at the last, but the risks are no more than any other invest 'for a 33% profit in a matter of days' strategy. As a investor, it seems like a decent risk/reward.
But let's focus on the race. The presence of Douvan will no doubt scare of a few runners
Altior (8/1 general) is second in the market, especially with those offering a non-runner no bet concession, but his trainer has already ruled him out of the race 'unless Douvan doesn't run'. He's more likely to renew his rivalry with Min in the Arkle.
Fox Norton (8/1 Betfair) was third behind Douvan in the Arkle and has since added a handicap win and the Grade Two Schloer Chase to his bedpost, doing so rather impressively. He's now rated within 2 lbs of Douvan and has the C&D form for this race, but I struggle to see him getting close to Douvan. In the without market, his price would be too restrictive for me at 5/2, so he's a no from me.
Next in is Un de Sceaux (14/1 Betair & Betway), second last year to Sprinter Sacre. He's got the C&D form as well, having won the Arkle in 2015 and placing last year behind the resurgent Sprinter, but you'd think his participation would be unlikely given the presence of his stablemate Douvan. I do believe two miles is his best trip, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Mullins team stepped him up to two mile five for the Ryanair. But with doubts over his participation, the 7 or 8/1 available on NRNB is not enough for me to be tempted.
There's a few more to rule out. Ar Mad (25/1 Betfair) has dodged the re-arranged Clarence House at Cheltenham with doubts over his ability to go left handed and now steps up in trip at Ascot for the Ascot Chase. Both of those points would make him an unlikely runner in this for me, although I think he's a very good horse. Equally, Vroum Vroum Mag (25/1 various) is very unlikely to run in this, even as a super-sub. Sizing John (33/1) was shortened dramatically for the Ryanair after his win in the Kinloch Brae and he wouldn't want to be chasing Douvan again.
That leaves me with two who I'd expect to go for the race and give a very good account of themselves. Special Tiara (25/1 various) has finished third in the last two runnings of this race and Henry De Bromhead's ten year old always improves for better ground. He wasn't at his best, but still managed to win the Desert Orchid last time out, narrowly edging out Sir Valentino. At 25/1 he seems a very fair price for an each way bet. Even if you take him on place only or without the favourite you should be able to get a decent price.
At the same price, God's Own (25/1 various) is another who will run his race. Fourth in the race last year and second behind Un de Sceaux in the Arkle the year before, he's got a decent form line over C&D. He finished off last season in stylish fashion, with a win in the Melling Chase followed by beating Vautour in the Punchestown Champion Chase. He's another who does better in the spring, but wasn't beaten far in the Tingle Creak by Un de Sceaux. His spring form over fences though is quite good (122F411, from March - May), compared to the autumn and winter months (24217332233, October - February). The only reservation is that he might step up to the Ryanair as they've been mixing his trip a fair bit this year, but 25s is a very fair price.
No Bet:
Douvan to win (1/3)
Suggested:
Special Tiara 25/1 E/W Various
God's Own 25/1 E/W Various
As always, if you have any feedback, suggestions or just want to laugh at my choices, @redgameracer on twitter is the place to be.
Red
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