2016 Betfair Chase

The Betfair Chase
By Red

Red looks forward towards the big race of the weekend, the Betfair Chase at Haydock. (Soft, heavy in places at time of writing).

This time last year I had a rant about the field size in the Betfair and it's no different this year. Only seven declared, with a fair chance that Menorah and Irish Cavalier will get pulled because of the worsening ground. It's soft, heavy in places the moment and it may well get to full blown heavy by tomorrow. You can't say they haven't had fair warning about the million pound bonus this year, but again there is no Irish challengers. Disappointing, but what can you do.

Anyway, no point in lamenting about it, we'll make do with the seven we have. The market seems to suggest that it's almost a match between Cue Card (7/4) and Coneygree (2/1). Both of them have questions to be answered. Coneygree has been off for over a year and obviously has his issues. He's a fragile horse and you wonder if a competitive race in heavy ground is what he wants on his return. I'm sure the Bradstocks will have him primed for it, but the price puts me off. Cue Card is an equally prohibitive price at 7/4 and has questions to answer after his disappointing reappearance in the Charlie Hall Chase, beaten three and a bit lengths by Irish Cavalier. But there's more to this field than just those two. Silviniaco Conti (7/1) is a two time winner of this race and showed up well for a long time last year before Cue Card breezed clear. He was beaten eleven lengths by Valseur Lido on return and I don't think he's as good as he was. Nearly ten lbs below his best rating now and I think that's an accurate reflection of him. He's good, but not great anymore and I think he'll find one or two too strong. Seeyouatmidnight (7/1) will enjoy a good slog if the ground turns heavy, but he still has 20 lbs to find with the front two and I don't think the ground will account for that much. Irish Cavalier (11/1) beat Cue Card in the Charlie Hall, but won't enjoy soft or heavy conditions and might not even run. The same goes for Menorah (25/1) and French raider Vezelay (66/1) is the big unknown, but his form doesn't read to impressively.

So, who am I plumping for? Cue Card. I think that Charlie Hall was not an accurate reflection of his ability. He hit the front too early when Dynaste made a bad mistake and floundered. Furthermore, his record on proper good ground is patchy at best. Hasn't won on it since 2011, beaten 26 lengths by Don Cossack in the 2015 Melling and fell in the 2016 Gold Cup. His record on soft is 6 wins from 8 runs (including soft, heavy in places in this race last year). Yes, the price is short, but I couldn't be backing any of the others at the prices. I think he'll be fully primed for this and with Coneygree and Silviniaco giving him a nice tow into the race, he'll be bang there at the last, striding clear like a good thing.

"A Gazelle In Equine Form"

"A Gazelle In Equine Form"

From when he first announced himself
in the twenty-fourteen Supreme
the thrills were everywhere
disappointments few, and far between

Sure, he fell at Aintree
And at P'town he was in the wrong race
but everything else he did
he did with style and grace

Giant stride, ears pricked
his beautiful great head held high
Ruby standing in his irons
whip pointing to the sky

He was beautifully described
a gazelle in equine form
running up that hill
taking the festival by storm

Farewell champion
you were the one for me
that drew me into this great sport
May you forever run free